2013 Draft Discussion

[craig]

..

You don't think Zunino would be top 5 this year? He's almost in the majors already. I know his stock has kinda gone back up since he was drafted, but that's sort of surprising to hear.

 

I think his stock has gone up huge since the draft. If the Cubs had taken him at #6 last year, I don't think there would have been many happy campers at nsbb, at the time, after he hit only .322 last spring and struck out fairly much for a college bat. But OPSing over 1.000, while making it up to AA last summer, has more than recovered his status. Was a case where his stock entering the spring was higher than by draft time. Buxton was a big prospect entering, but hit like 2 or 3 HR's all spring. Both, to me, were guys whose springs did not really solidify the big reps they had entering the spring. Raised more questions than they answered. Appel didn't help his stock either, I don't think. Some other popular pitchers were hurt.

 

This year, and I know it's really early, Manea has been dog-paddling and Stanek has done some sinking. But Appel has really strengthened his case; Gray has of course elevated a ton; Frazier and Meadows are answering questions, not raising them.

 

I guess I'm thinking that the reputation for the class entering last draft may have been better, and this one a lot worse; but my feeling was that there were a lot of disappointments with the potential studs last year, and this year the reputation seems to be going up rather than down.

 

maybe I'm misremembering it all, but I thought at this point last year Almora was projected by a lot of the draftnicks as mid-first, nice but limited upside (limited power and speed).

 

I may be crazy, but I'm much more intrigued with Appel and Gray right now than I was with Zimmer and Gaussman. And I think both Meadows and Frazier look more appealing certainly than Almora did by most accounts, or Correa or Buxton. (Despite Buxton's tools).

 

I also kinda think that Almora's stock has gone up since 12 months ago. After the draft and a year of buzz, now we perceive him really favorably. But during the draft spring I sure got the feeling that a lot of analysts, and posters, saw him more as a safe, conservative pick but without huge tools or huge potential.

[Guest]

Most recent Draft Tracker from BA:

 

Things are starting to heat up around the country with about two months to go before draft day. Teams are starting to get a clearer picture of how their draft boards will come together, but there is still plenty of time for players to pop up. Here are scouting reports on four such players:

 

Tim Anderson, SS, East Central CC (MS)

Garrett Hamson, SS, Reno HS (NV)

Jordan Paroubeck, OF, Serra HS (San Mateo, CA)

Thaddius Lowry, rhp, Spring HS (TX)

[Guest]

Nothing earth shattering here: http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/no-2-overall-pick-cubs-hope-hit-their-verlander

[Guest]

Matt Garrioch on Jonathan Gray: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/3/28/4148614/2013-mlb-draft-profile-jonathan-gray-rhp-oklahoma

[Cubswin11]

Law chat going on right now. He answered my question on Bryant \:D/

 

Few Cubs related ones

 

You think Appel is close to Major League ready, but if the Astros take him does it make sense to keep him in the minors for a while and wait for the other prospects to catch up and save his service time, or should they bring him up when he is ready?

 

Klaw (12:27 PM)

I'd bring him up as soon as he's ready, which might be this September. If he has to make adjustments in the majors, might as well start them now.

 

 

 

Have heard some talk about Jonathan Grey being in contention for #1-1, and Manea falling out of the Top 10. Too rash, or trending that way?

 

Klaw(12:10 PM)

I mentioned those points in a recent draft blog post - I think that's the realistic-pessimistic view on Manaea, and I think Gray is the alternative to Appel at 1-1 right now. Cubs fans should be most excited about Gray, because his emergence would mean, today, that they are guaranteed to get a top-tier college starter who projects as at least a good #2.

 

 

Is there a good source for college pitch counts? The stuff on Appel is anecdotal, but I did find PC's for about half his games (105/110/107) in the Stanford box scores (not sure why not listed in all of them). This is a long way of asking are pitch counts still a concern with Appel?

 

Klaw(12:34 PM)

Stanford's coaching staff doesn't want the pitch counts made public, yet another reason I think Marquess needs to step aside in favor of some new blood - someone who won't overuse his pitchers or force all his hitters to forgo their strides and hit the other way.

 

Klaw(12:34 PM)

Oh, and no, I don't think Appel will see 120 pitches this spring.

 

 

 

Do you think Kris Bryant can stick at 3B long-term?

 

Klaw(12:36 PM)

25% chance.

 

 

[Guest]

Jordan Sheffield was a late scratch today at the big NHSI high school tournament in North Carolina due to the dreaded forearm tightness.

[Named After Maddux]

Haven't posted in awhile: busy with the Residency.

Excited to see TTF mock the first 108 picks. Loading up on Pitching in this Mock with a pick at Catcher that looks intriguing.

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2013-mlb-draft-4/30877/

 

#2 Appel

The 6’-5” right-hander has been pitching with a chip on his shoulder this season. Over five games, he has a 1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 54 K/7 BB over 38 innings. Hitters are batting just .169 against him and he has allowed one home run all year. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and both his slider and change-up are plus pitches. He has shown a better ability to mix up his pitches this year, answering questions from his critics.

 

#41 Andrew Mitchell, RHP, TCU

At 6’-3” and 225 pounds, Mitchell is a power righty whose fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range. His secondary offerings are solid and he has decent command. He started the season in the bullpen but made his first start of the season on March 25, allowing one run over 4.2 innings, striking out six to one walk against Oklahoma.

 

#77 Chris Oakley, RHP, St. Augustine Prep (NJ)

At 6’-8” and 230 pounds, there is a lot of projection. He has an easy delivery and can get his fastball up to the mid 90s. He adds a mid-70s curveball that has plus potential and also mixes in a developing split-finger fastball.

 

#108 Stuart Turner C-Ole Miss

A JUCO transfer from LSU-Eunice, the 6’-2”, 220-pound right-hander won the Rawlings Gold Glove and was an Academic All American. He has huge power potential due to his size and has a good approach at the plate. Over 26 games this season, he is hitting .460 with 10 doubles, three home runs, 34 RBI and a .495 OBP/.701 SLG.

[Cubswin11]

6'8" 230 is [expletive] massive for a prep arm

[Guest]

Would love Appel at 2 and Mitchell at 41.

 

With the season he's having combined with improving scouting reports, I can't see Turner lasting till the 4th round.

[Guest]

BP chat:

 

Matt (NJ): Hey Nick, was wondering if you've seen Jonathan Gray yet and what you thought of him? I read about the UCLA coaches comparing him to Cole and was curious if the comp holds any weight for you? Also, is the conditioning a major concern?

 

Nick Faleris: I've seen two of Gray's starts via HD game tape, but not in person yet. The plan was to see him against Oklahoma St., but it looks like I might have a newborn on my hands almost that exact weekend, so I am going to see what alternate plans I can make (maybe in tournament play later on). If you aren't already, follow Jason Cole (@LoneStarDugout) on twitter, who is a member of the BP Prospect Team and will be seeing Gray live against Baylor in the coming weeks.

 

As for the Cole comp, it isn't appropriate. Both throw hard and have good sliders, but Cole's changeup was well ahead of where Gray currently sits, and Cole also mixed a cut variation on his slider for a different look. I might go along with Junior Gray is on par with Sophomore Cole, but even that isn't really great. The biggest concern evaluators will have with Gray is figuring out how much of the new look is long term sustainable, which means lots of peaks between now and draft day.

[Guest]

One more from Law's chat:

 

Garrett (Salt Lake City) As of today what is your guess at the top 5 picks of the draft

 

Klaw  (12:51 PM) I think Appel and Gray are the first two picks in some order, assuming the draft were held today. After that, it's going to come down more to team preferences and bonus demands - Kohl Stewart would be a viable pick anywhere up that high, but some teams don't like taking HS RHP in the top ten, or might balk if he wants a higher bonus to buy him away from Texas A&M. If I were picking fifth, I'd have those three guys, Meadows, Frazier, Shipley, and Bryant in the decision set, at least.

[jersey cubs fan]

Is there as significant difference between what Appel thought he'd get last year and what he's likely to settle for this year?

[davell]

Is there as significant difference between what Appel thought he'd get last year and what he's likely to settle for this year?

There were rumors he wanted 6 mill last year, I don't think a bonus has been floated yet this year. That said, if we decide he is the best player, I could see us offering full slot(last year was 6.2) plus our overslot(490k), and possibly even take 10k college seniors in rounds 7 or 8 thru 10, in order to scare Houston away.(430k to 620k). That way, it would basically tell Houston they need to pay slightly over their 7.2 slot amount for the top pick. And considering how far off Houston is, I honestly see them using the same strategy they did last year(4.8 to Correa). At this point, I think I'm happy with either Appel or Gray, so if we get either for under slot, its a win-win.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Is there as significant difference between what Appel thought he'd get last year and what he's likely to settle for this year?

 

Assuming he goes in the top 2, yes. Every spot that you drop is a significant hit. Last year, the slots went:

 

$7.2m, $6.2m, $5.2m, $4.2m, $3.5m, $3.25m, $3.0m, $2.9

 

So basically, Appel was saying "top 2 money or I go back."

[Guest]

To avoid playing on Easter Sunday, some series are starting today. Stanford and Oklahoma are amongst them. If you get Fox Sports College, you can warn Jonathan Gray pitch at 6:30 pm CT.

[Guest]

Bryant hit an opposite field HR and then followed it up with a single next time up. All of this is against Oregon State who I think is the best team in the country.

 

Gray gave up 1 run and struck out 12 in 9 innings.

[davell]

Appel went 9, 4 hits, 1 walk, 10K's. No runs, 3 HBP.

[Guest]

Appel ended up with a CG up in Pullman - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 3 HBP.

 

Wazzou is middle of the pack (they did win a series against ASU recently) and, of course, Pullman is ~3000 ft in elevation.

[Guest]

‏@KendallRogersPG Spoke with someone at Appel's outing tonight. The @StanfordBSB RHP was 97 throughout the game w/ plus SL and CH. #mlbdraft #Pac12

[davell]

Chris Anderson with todays' WTF line: 6IP, 11H, 9R, 8ER, 0W, and 10K's.

[davell]

Appels' last 5 outings: 42 IP, 5W, 61K's, 0.64 ERA, 0.60 WHIP.

[davell]

Grays' last 4 starts: 34IP, 15H, 2ER, 2W, 44K's.

[jersey cubs fan]

Appel went 9, 4 hits, 1 walk, 10K's. No runs, 3 HBP.

 

How many pitches did he throw?

[davell]

Appel went 9, 4 hits, 1 walk, 10K's. No runs, 3 HBP.

 

How many pitches did he throw?

Stanford isn't releasing that info this year. Law or someone else said they doubted he'd hit 120 pitches in a game this year though.

[jersey cubs fan]

Appel went 9, 4 hits, 1 walk, 10K's. No runs, 3 HBP.

 

How many pitches did he throw?

Stanford isn't releasing that info this year. Law or someone else said they doubted he'd hit 120 pitches in a game this year though.

 

Were the 3 HBP just a hardassed college macho thing or was he wild? Those would have to be some quick k's and easy innings to not get up to 120 through 9.