Cashner and Na traded for Rizzo and Cates

[toonsterwu]

It feels like some people (not posters on this board, just in general) are a bit overly down on Rizzo given that he was the centerpiece to pretty ugly Gonzales trade and didn't tear it up immediately during his cup of coffee. It's like it was up to a 21 year old hitting in a canyon of a ballpark to show that the Red Sox didn't just completely rob an MVP candidate for a handful of magic beans. If they had just left Rizzo in AAA and let him continue to rake there without the expectations, where he was the youngest everyday starter in the PCL, I wonder if there would be so much skepticism. If you just objectively judged Rizzo based on his age and numbers and completely took the Gonzales trade out of it, which wasn't his fault, it feels like people would be higher on him.

 

I'm probably one of the most lukewarm people on Rizzo in this thread, but I've made it clear that my lukewarm interest in Rizzo dated back to his Boston days. Just thought he was a bit over-hyped for much of his career online. Not saying he's not good, but over-hyped. The swing issues were there dating back to his Low A days. (it's interesting to note that Kevin Goldstein and Jim Callis both have Rizzo third ... I thought I was in a minority with BJax first, guess it might be closer than I thought. Though I would put Rizzo ahead of Baez, since Baez is so far away.)

[toonsterwu]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/1/6/2687814/prospects-in-the-andrew-cashner-anthony-rizzo-trade

 

Sickels:

 

Zach Cates, RHP: Cates was drafted in the third round in 2010, from Northeast Texas Community College. He is a 6-3, 200 pound right-hander, born December 17, 1989. Although he posted an unattractive 4.73 ERA in the Midwest League in 2011, his FIP was much better at 3.23, with a 111/53 K/BB in 118 innings and just four homers allowed.

 

Cates works with a 92-96 MPH fastball and a nasty changeup. His curveball needs work and he is still ironing out his mechanics, but I like his potential for growth. With a few tweaks this guy could really take off.I rate him as a Grade C+ prospect in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book.

 

Anthony Rizzo, 1B: At age 22 he still has time to work out his flaws. Rizzo has excellent power and sound plate discipline, but his swing gets long and major league pitchers found the holes quickly. He's not going to hit .300 outside of the Pacific Coast League, but with some adjustments he should hit .260-.280 at his peak, with 25-30 homers and plenty of walks. Although error-prone at first base, his defense is considered very good due to soft hands, a strong arm, and surprising range.

 

Rizzo has more risk in his profile than many people realize, and if things go wrong he could turn into Chris Davis. On the other hand, if things go really right, he could develop into Ryan Howard. He will likely fall somewhere in between. Grade B+

 

Sounds like Cates could be a good reliever if he is in the mid-90s and has a good change up. If that third pitch never develops I'm sure he'll be moved to the pen.

 

He'd probably move fairly fast in the pen, but there's enough righty pen arms that I'd be surprised if he isn't in Daytona's rotation, which was a bit iffy when you start listing possible names there (in terms of talent), and had a lot of lefty options potentially penciled in there.

[toonsterwu]

Zach Cates is actually a fascinating prospect. His peripherals in the MWL were solid last season (despite the walks), where he racked up Ks and kept HRs down. I love pitchers with good fastball/changeup combinations. With a better curveball, my guess is his walk numbers will decrease. I'm tempted to put him in my Top 20.

 

I'm sad to see Cashner go, but I really like this deal for the Cubs.

 

I know Callis has him outside of his top 20 (and I don't recall seeing Callis' full top 30 list this year), but I've got a hard time not putting Cates in the same range as Beeler, in the mid-teens. I like Beeler a bit better, but it's close.

[XZero771679666304]

I like this trade, but I have to admit it's a bit unnerving that the only thing Rizzo has over LaHair right now from a statistical standpoint is age. Granted, LaHair has hit his ceiling and Rizzo hasn't, but I echo the sentiments of those who find it hard to trust PCL numbers.

 

That's not unnerving at all. The difference between a 21-year-old in his first look at a league and a 29-year-old in his third is absolutely huge.

 

 

That's a massive understatement.

 

Unnerved because they looked similar at AAA with LaHair 29 and at his ceiling and Rizzo 21 and still developing? That's alarming?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The more I think about what it means to be a successful 21-year-old at AAA, and what it usually means to be a 25-year-old pitcher who has never put together a full starting season, the more I love this deal.

 

Then you consider that we actually picked up a legit prospect in the throw-in swap, and I think this is another excellent trade. Not quite on the level of awesomeness of the Marshall trade, but up there. Epstein/Hoyer seem to have an incredible knack for finding teams that have assets that aren't as valuable to them as they should be. Wood and Rizzo are really, really nice pieces, and they weren't going to be helped much by their big league home parks. Plus, Rizzo was blocked, and Wood was just being Dustied in favor of Bronson Arroyo.

 

This offseason isn't taking the direction I expected, but once the decision was made to rebuild, we've been doing it brilliantly. The front office is living up to the hype and then some.

[Rob]

I like this trade, but I have to admit it's a bit unnerving that the only thing Rizzo has over LaHair right now from a statistical standpoint is age. Granted, LaHair has hit his ceiling and Rizzo hasn't, but I echo the sentiments of those who find it hard to trust PCL numbers.

 

The #1 thing every talent evaluator will tell you they look at is age relative to league.

[17 Seconds]

cashner is 25, is hurt all the time, and has only had one super impressive stretch in the minors. oh, and he isn't even a starter at this point. this trade is awesome.

[UMFan83]

From Phil Rogers column:

 

Don't be surprised if this continues. I'm skeptical but there might be a way to trade Alfonso Soriano — the Orioles have become the front-runner, if Chairman Tom Ricketts is willing to keep paying salaries for guys no longer on the job (see Jim Hendry, Mike Quade, Zambrano). And the Cubs definitely are going to be in the mix to sign one of the two Cuban center fielders, Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler.

 

In Epstein's mind, adding Rizzo was almost as big as signing Cespedes would be. He and Hoyer love the guy, basing their belief largely on three factors.

 

Rizzo, who will play most of 2012 as a 22-year-old, bumped his OPS up from .815 in Double-A two years ago to 1.056 in Triple-A last season. He's an above-average fielder at first, which meets their standard of emphasizing all-around play. And he beat Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2008, when he was just getting his career started.

 

McLeod has said he has the best makeup of any player he has scouted, and Hoyer says he's "a leader, a person who can really help put the organization on the right path as far as the culture.''

[XZero771679666304]

cashner is 25, is hurt all the time, and has only had one super impressive stretch in the minors. oh, and he isn't even a starter at this point. this trade is awesome.

 

Yeah, the fact that he was moved back to the pen made him much more expendable. As a starter he would have had enough value to make me waffle a bit on this, but whether or not he'll ever be that is in serious doubt, and he certainly wouldn't be any time soon even in a best case scenario. As a reliever, he was only marginally more valuable than guys like Carpenter, imo.

 

Rizzo, otoh, fills a dire need with no one comparable in our system (aside from maybe Vogelbach, who is years away).

 

This is a great deal for the Cubs.

 

Cates is just icing.

[ParadigmShift]

I really like Cashner, I've been looking forward to watching him develop this season. I am truly sad to see him go. That said, I make this trade every day of the week, and never look back. It was huge to see Cashner succeed in the starting role, throughout his development with the Cubs. However, In don't recall any time during this period where his pitch counts weren't limited. I'm to lazy to look it up, but I don't believe he has ever demonstrated the durability necessary succeed as a starter. I have also read both the Cubs and Pads believe he is a reliever at this point. Considering this, we received tremendous value for Cashner. I've seen some tepid response to the move, but I don't think anyone can legitimately argue we lost in this transaction.

 

I really appreciate what Theo & Co. Are doing this offseason. It is clear that the Cubs baseball opp. brain trust gathered to discussed the organizational state of the Cubs, and determined the best way to improve the health of the team long term is to sell off short term assets which have any perceived value. I know a lot of people are wary about the short term effect of the enjoyability of the major league team, but a lot of thought has gone into this strategy.

 

My biggest qualm with Hendry was he truly lacked vision, he never had a long term goal for for success of the club. He had a big map with a square in one corner that read "Win World Series", and one in the opposing corner that read, "You Are Here", yet the center of the map, defining the path, was always obscurred.

 

Now, we have a complete reworking of our organizational philosophy. The goal is the same, but these guys began carving their path day one. So far, I believe we have received good value on most of these trades. Rizzo is our first blue chipper, but we have acquired a good bit of upside, along with some actual ML ready players.

 

People are nervous because of the inherent risk associate with prospects, but at least we have a front office with the balls to try to execute a total revitalization of the team, which will require short term pain. These guys are clearly trying to build a foundation to support long term success, and they are executing their plan intelligently. Here's to hoping the dice come up in our favor.

 

I think Rizzo is truly exciting. He put up jaw dropping numbers in AAA at age 21, while missing a year of development. Sure it's a hitters league, and he has some flaws, but what he has accomplished thus far is certainly exciting.

 

So here's to the future of the Cubs, we are finally seeing actual progress.

[XZero771679666304]

I really like Cashner, I've been looking forward to watching him develop this season. I am truly sad to see him go. That said, I make this trade every day of the week, and never look back. It was huge to see Cashner succeed in the starting role, throughout his development with the Cubs. However, In don't recall any time during this period where his pitch counts weren't limited. I'm to lazy to look it up, but I don't believe he has ever demonstrated the durability necessary succeed as a starter. I have also read both the Cubs and Pads believe he is a reliever at this point. Considering this, we received tremendous value for Cashner. I've seen some tepid response to the move, but I don't think anyone can legitimately argue we lost in this transaction.

 

I really appreciate what Theo & Co. Are doing this offseason. It is clear that the Cubs baseball opp. brain trust gathered to discussed the organizational state of the Cubs, and determined the best way to improve the health of the team long term is to sell off short term assets which have any perceived value. I know a lot of people are wary about the short term effect of the enjoyability of the major league team, but a lot of thought has gone into this strategy.

 

My biggest qualm with Hendry was he truly lacked vision, he never had a long term goal for for success of the club. He had a big map with a square in one corner that read "Win World Series", and one in the opposing corner that read, "You Are Here", yet the center of the map, defining the path, was always obscurred.

 

Now, we have a complete reworking of our organizational philosophy. The goal is the same, but these guys began carving their path day one. So far, I believe we have received good value on most of these trades. Rizzo is our first blue chipper, but we have acquired a good bit of upside, along with some actual ML ready players.

 

People are nervous because of the inherent risk associate with prospects, but at least we have a front office with the balls to try to execute a total revitalization of the team, which will require short term pain. These guys are clearly trying to build a foundation to support long term success, and they are executing their plan intelligently. Here's to hoping the dice come up in our favor.

 

I think Rizzo is truly exciting. He put up jaw dropping numbers in AAA at age 21, while missing a year of development. Sure it's a hitters league, and he has some flaws, but what he has accomplished thus far is certainly exciting.

 

So here's to the future of the Cubs, we are finally seeing actual progress.

 

Nice post.

 

Not everyone here has been thrilled with the lack of flash thus far (myself included), but it is refreshing to finally see a real, sound methodology at work. Moves like this one and the Marshall trade are indicators that we have top notch executives calling the shots, and those reasons are why I can suffer what is coming in the short term with a positive attitude.

[Guest]

This looks like a good trade for both clubs, however, Cashner wasn't a short term "asset". If Hendry and Co. wouldn't have mishandled him so badly we may have know what his role would be. As it is no one really knows if he's a reliever or a starter. I think he's a lot more risky than Rizzo.

[Backtobanks]

I really like Cashner, I've been looking forward to watching him develop this season. I am truly sad to see him go. That said, I make this trade every day of the week, and never look back. It was huge to see Cashner succeed in the starting role, throughout his development with the Cubs. However, In don't recall any time during this period where his pitch counts weren't limited. I'm to lazy to look it up, but I don't believe he has ever demonstrated the durability necessary succeed as a starter. I have also read both the Cubs and Pads believe he is a reliever at this point. Considering this, we received tremendous value for Cashner. I've seen some tepid response to the move, but I don't think anyone can legitimately argue we lost in this transaction.

 

I really appreciate what Theo & Co. Are doing this offseason. It is clear that the Cubs baseball opp. brain trust gathered to discussed the organizational state of the Cubs, and determined the best way to improve the health of the team long term is to sell off short term assets which have any perceived value. I know a lot of people are wary about the short term effect of the enjoyability of the major league team, but a lot of thought has gone into this strategy.

 

My biggest qualm with Hendry was he truly lacked vision, he never had a long term goal for for success of the club. He had a big map with a square in one corner that read "Win World Series", and one in the opposing corner that read, "You Are Here", yet the center of the map, defining the path, was always obscurred.

 

Now, we have a complete reworking of our organizational philosophy. The goal is the same, but these guys began carving their path day one. So far, I believe we have received good value on most of these trades. Rizzo is our first blue chipper, but we have acquired a good bit of upside, along with some actual ML ready players.

 

People are nervous because of the inherent risk associate with prospects, but at least we have a front office with the balls to try to execute a total revitalization of the team, which will require short term pain. These guys are clearly trying to build a foundation to support long term success, and they are executing their plan intelligently. Here's to hoping the dice come up in our favor.

 

I think Rizzo is truly exciting. He put up jaw dropping numbers in AAA at age 21, while missing a year of development. Sure it's a hitters league, and he has some flaws, but what he has accomplished thus far is certainly exciting.

 

So here's to the future of the Cubs, we are finally seeing actual progress.

 

Hendry's vision was pushed by his superiors and that was go out and buy a winning team. We don't know what would have happened this year if Ricketts told him to rebuild the whole team.

[TruffleShuffle]

I like this trade, but I have to admit it's a bit unnerving that the only thing Rizzo has over LaHair right now from a statistical standpoint is age. Granted, LaHair has hit his ceiling and Rizzo hasn't, but I echo the sentiments of those who find it hard to trust PCL numbers.

 

That's not unnerving at all. The difference between a 21-year-old in his first look at a league and a 29-year-old in his third is absolutely huge.

 

 

That's a massive understatement.

 

Unnerved because they looked similar at AAA with LaHair 29 and at his ceiling and Rizzo 21 and still developing? That's alarming?

 

and I think he was saying he was alarmed by their stat lines looking so similar. oh no he had similar stats to the MVP of the pacific coast league, that's [expletive] terrifying.

 

the k rate and the long swing are reasons to be concerned. there's not much fault to be found in his minor league stats though.

[TruffleShuffle]

Hendry's vision was pushed by his superiors and that was go out and buy a winning team. We don't know what would have happened this year if Ricketts told him to rebuild the whole team.

 

Are you hendry's son or something? You go above and beyond to defend him. Management didn't tell him to buy a winning team, they gave him significant financial resources and he did not build a consistent winner. His superiors didn't tell him to give soriano or zambrano those contracts, or to not develop a consistent star-level player in almost 10 years.

 

nor, I suspect, did ricketts tell theo to completely rebuild. I would assume that if theo went and said "pujols is my guy" or "we need to bid very big on darvish," I'm confident that ricketts would have green lighted competitive offers. this is theo's choice on how to turn the franchise around - which, I will remind you, is necessary because your boy left things a mess.

[CubColtPacer]

Hendry's vision was pushed by his superiors and that was go out and buy a winning team. We don't know what would have happened this year if Ricketts told him to rebuild the whole team.

 

Are you hendry's son or something? You go above and beyond to defend him. Management didn't tell him to buy a winning team, they gave him significant financial resources and he did not build a consistent winner. His superiors didn't tell him to give soriano or zambrano those contracts, or to not develop a consistent star-level player in almost 10 years.

 

nor, I suspect, did ricketts tell theo to completely rebuild. I would assume that if theo went and said "pujols is my guy" or "we need to bid very big on darvish," I'm confident that ricketts would have green lighted competitive offers. this is theo's choice on how to turn the franchise around - which, I will remind you, is necessary because your boy left things a mess.

 

If the reports are true (from people like Bruce Miles), they did on Soriano.

 

But I agree that Hendry wouldn't have done this type of rebuild. He would have tried to limp along with the current core while continuing to build up the farm system.

[hawkeyecub]

I like this trade, but I have to admit it's a bit unnerving that the only thing Rizzo has over LaHair right now from a statistical standpoint is age. Granted, LaHair has hit his ceiling and Rizzo hasn't, but I echo the sentiments of those who find it hard to trust PCL numbers.

 

Trenidad Hubbard was routinely putting up mid-.900 OPS' in his late 20's-early 30's. Would it have been unnerving if the only difference between a 21 year old CF in AAA and Trenidad Hubbard was age?

[Illini Iceman]

Hendry's vision was pushed by his superiors and that was go out and buy a winning team. We don't know what would have happened this year if Ricketts told him to rebuild the whole team.

 

Are you hendry's son or something? You go above and beyond to defend him. Management didn't tell him to buy a winning team, they gave him significant financial resources and he did not build a consistent winner. His superiors didn't tell him to give soriano or zambrano those contracts, or to not develop a consistent star-level player in almost 10 years.

 

nor, I suspect, did ricketts tell theo to completely rebuild. I would assume that if theo went and said "pujols is my guy" or "we need to bid very big on darvish," I'm confident that ricketts would have green lighted competitive offers. this is theo's choice on how to turn the franchise around - which, I will remind you, is necessary because your boy left things a mess.

 

If the reports are true (from people like Bruce Miles), they did on Soriano.

 

But I agree that Hendry wouldn't have done this type of rebuild. He would have tried to limp along with the current core while continuing to build up the farm system.

 

And the Zambrano deal didn't seem such a bad idea at the time since he was locking up a guy that seemed like he might be a top of the rotation stud for quite a few years.

 

But we have Theo and Jed now so all that is history and I am just enjoying watching them do their thing.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As far as big extensions to pitchers go, Zambrano's wasn't great, but it really wasn't bad. We got real value from him.

[A New Era]

I think the thing with Hendry, yes he did often get the upper hand in trades. "won" them so to say. But he didn't do enough of these guys of moves. Targeting guys that are just on the cusp of MLB, guys in their low 20s. He was afraid or unwilling to trade assets. "His guys" so to speak. He would hardly ever trade them when their value was at their peak. He only started doing it with Derosa. If he had trinkled in alot more of those types of moves along with his other trades I think the Cubs would be in alot better shape.

 

And that's exactly how I think the new guys are gonna build a perrenial contender. By not being affraid to trade guys at the peak of their value, no matter how many fans that player might have, as long as we receive more in value back, or filling a position of need from a position of surplus. I think it's the little things like that, that Hendry just didn't quite grasp.

[JonJayCutler]

Okay, "unnerving" was a poor choice of wording, as I do think the guy will be fine. Sometimes it's just hard to ignore when numbers drastically improve with a move to the PCL, in this case with his OPS jumping almost 250 points from the year before. I too hope that most of it is a product of his development and I do suspect this. I also realize that putting up those numbers at age 21 is quite an accomplishment and that's why he's a highly-touted prospect. He'll make it in the bigs and be our everyday 1B, that's not what I'm bringing into question. I just hope he becomes the star that we all, including myself, think he will become.

 

I'm not sure why this was all seen as such a heretical statement to some, as I've seen many "regulars" on here say the exact same thing about the PCL.

[Magnetic Curses]

I like this trade, but I have to admit it's a bit unnerving that the only thing Rizzo has over LaHair right now from a statistical standpoint is age. Granted, LaHair has hit his ceiling and Rizzo hasn't, but I echo the sentiments of those who find it hard to trust PCL numbers.

 

Trenidad Hubbard was routinely putting up mid-.900 OPS' in his late 20's-early 30's. Would it have been unnerving if the only difference between a 21 year old CF in AAA and Trenidad Hubbard was age?

 

yeah, it's a pretty odd argument to make. age is a pretty huge thing, you can't hold his mashing of the pcl against rizzo, that's what he was supposed to do.

[ScrubMD]

I like this trade, but I have to admit it's a bit unnerving that the only thing Rizzo has over LaHair right now from a statistical standpoint is age. Granted, LaHair has hit his ceiling and Rizzo hasn't, but I echo the sentiments of those who find it hard to trust PCL numbers.

 

Trenidad Hubbard was routinely putting up mid-.900 OPS' in his late 20's-early 30's. Would it have been unnerving if the only difference between a 21 year old CF in AAA and Trenidad Hubbard was age?

 

yeah, it's a pretty odd argument to make. age is a pretty huge thing, you can't hold his mashing of the pcl against rizzo, that's what he was supposed to do.

 

Yeah, but if he doesn't improve at all in the next 8 years...then what? I see where he's going with this.

[Magnetic Curses]

Okay, "unnerving" was a poor choice of wording, as I do think the guy will be fine. Sometimes it's just hard to ignore when numbers drastically improve with a move to the PCL, in this case with his OPS jumping almost 250 points from the year before. I too hope that most of it is a product of his development and I do suspect this. I also realize that putting up those numbers at age 21 is quite an accomplishment and that's why he's a highly-touted prospect. He'll make it in the bigs and be our everyday 1B, that's not what I'm bringing into question. I just hope he becomes the star that we all, including myself, think he will become.

 

I'm not sure why this was all seen as such a heretical statement to some, as I've seen many "regulars" on here say the exact same thing about the PCL.

 

i thought hawkeyes's argument was pretty appropriate without painting you as a heretic.

[ctcf]

Jed Hoyer Quote:

 

“To be candid, I don’t think I did Anthony any favors when I was the GM of the Padres. We called him up because we weren’t getting any first base production in San Diego. It was too early, and a mistake on my part, and I don’t think I did Anthony any favors there.”

 

Holy [expletive] crap. Could you imagine those words coming out of Jim Hendry's mouth? I can't believe we have a front office that thinks this way.

 

Source: http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/01/07/jed-hoyer-and-anthony-rizzo-speak-about-yesterdays-big-trade/