Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[Clem Fandango]

Would Arizona be tempted to add Garza to their rotation in exchange for one of their big minor league arms and a couple other pieces? Primarily Skaggs?

[RammyFanny]

Also, if we can GET that type of package for Garza, it'd be highway robbery. I'm pretty sure Jimenez was one of the best pitchets in the game when he got dealt AND had 3 or 4 years of control left as well. I'm thinking we can get close though, with all the teams in the races right now.

He was 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA when he was dealt. It was the year before he was awesome (in the first half at least), but even in that year his ERA was around 4 after the break if I remember right.

[El Duderino]

I still can't believe the Indians did that deal. Just brutal.

[davell]

Possible positive development today with Bautista saying he hopes Toronto goes for it and saying the fans deserve it. At some point, AA does need to make moves to help the major league team. Hopefully, this helps run the bidding up a bit.

[toonsterwu]

Would Arizona be tempted to add Garza to their rotation in exchange for one of their big minor league arms and a couple other pieces? Primarily Skaggs?

 

Highly doubt it. I guess I'd never so no to anything, but with Bauer's ready, and they really hope to develop that young stud rotation.

[toonsterwu]

Also, if we can GET that type of package for Garza, it'd be highway robbery. I'm pretty sure Jimenez was one of the best pitchets in the game when he got dealt AND had 3 or 4 years of control left as well. I'm thinking we can get close though, with all the teams in the races right now.

He was 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA when he was dealt. It was the year before he was awesome (in the first half at least), but even in that year his ERA was around 4 after the break if I remember right.

 

Considering the Indians FO makeup, I imagine they looked at all the statistics and thought, a bit of luck and Jimenez might be who he was a year ago. The K and BB rates were basically the same.

 

I was surprised they gave up so much. Teams rarely give up two upper level quality arms in a deal. If we can get anything close to that return, that'd be awesome, but I'd be happy with one quality upper level arm and one high upside arm in say, the A ball ranks (preferably A+, as we'd get a good idea of that arm's ability sooner than later, with the AA jump). Obviously, that wouldn't be enough, but to headline a deal, I'd be happy with that (also obviously depends on the names, just speaking hypothetically here).

[toonsterwu]

The Yankees have decent prospects in their system worth trading for, like Gary Sanchez, Dante Bichette Jr., and Mason Williams. They just happen not to be pitchers.

 

Well, they have one very intriguing arm that's healthy, and that's Jose Campos. If they could get a solid AA/AAA arm in a trade (perhaps by eating another team's contract and offering an intriguing youngster or two) with decent ceiling (easier said than done), a Sanchez/Campos/solid AA/AAA arm package would intrigue me a bit. Not a ton, but it would be intriguing.

[toonsterwu]

Quite a bit has changed since those rankings though. Barnes/Bradley would be very comparable to 36 and 47. I hate saying Toronto isn't really a fit, but they're not. If we're wanting a close to the majors arm anyway. Also, if we can GET that type of package for Garza, it'd be highway robbery. I'm pretty sure Jimenez was one of the best pitchets in the game when he got dealt AND had 3 or 4 years of control left as well. I'm thinking we can get close though, with all the teams in the races right now.

 

OOC, which Bradley are you talking about there? Jackie? Think he's more 51-75 than top 50. I wouldn't really have that much interest in Bradley as the 2nd piece, but that's me.

 

____

 

Back to another team for a moment - the Orioles. IF Zach Britton starts to pitch better in the next month, he'd be an arm I'd be intrigued with. The problem is, sans Bundy/Machado, I have a hard time seeing who would make a solid number 2 piece in a deal. Maybe Chris Tillman, if the fastball velocity is back, as the reports seem to suggest. Hmm ... a Britton/Tillman package isn't a bad combination to start a deal's discussion. I wonder if the Orioles would do it (that said ... I tend to think both guys might get called back to the bigs soon, and if they perform, they might not be looking for pitching).

[davell]

Yeah, I meant Jackie. Actually the reason I said comparable to 36 and 47, is because I agree Bradley is probably 51-75ish. But I think Barnes may be top 30 as well. By the way, I'd stay away from Baltimore's guys in a Garza package. If I'm trading Garza, the package can't be a couple of buy low types. I want guys who are ascending in value, not trying to regain what they've lost. By the way, unless he just started pitching again in the last week or so, Campos is hurt too.

[Tryptamine]

Yeah, I meant Jackie. Actually the reason I said comparable to 36 and 47, is because I agree Bradley is probably 51-75ish. But I think Barnes may be top 30 as well. By the way, I'd stay away from Baltimore's guys in a Garza package. If I'm trading Garza, the package can't be a couple of buy low types. I want guys who are ascending in value, not trying to regain what they've lost. By the way, unless he just started pitching again in the last week or so, Campos is hurt too.

 

I agree with the disdain on pretty much any O's package outside of the very unrealistic ones involving one of Bundy/Machado. Taking formerly high ranked prospects who failed is a strategy you use for someone of Dempster's value, not Garza's. With that said, if they offered up Britton and one of Arrieta/Matusz with a couple other specs then I'd be at least somewhat intrigued.

[davell]

The O's rank dead last for me, out of all the teams supposedly in on Garza. And as much as I want a pitching centric package, I'd be much happier with a package of hitting from the Yanks, than a group of fix me uppers from the Orioles. Texas was supposedly sniffing around Greinke and Hamels, I really want to see them get in on Garza. And since we barely outbid them for him from Tampa, we know they've shown serious interest in the past.

[toonsterwu]

Yeah, I meant Jackie. Actually the reason I said comparable to 36 and 47, is because I agree Bradley is probably 51-75ish. But I think Barnes may be top 30 as well. By the way, I'd stay away from Baltimore's guys in a Garza package. If I'm trading Garza, the package can't be a couple of buy low types. I want guys who are ascending in value, not trying to regain what they've lost. By the way, unless he just started pitching again in the last week or so, Campos is hurt too.

 

Ah, must of missed the Campos injury.

 

I don't know if Britton would be in the buy low category. Maybe. Tillman, I can understand, but Tillman's big issue last year was a loss of velocity, and the velo numbers are supposedly back up, and he's on a very nice roll in AAA. But Britton had a strong start to 2011, finished with an overall decent year, struggling in the 2nd half. Was it due to the shoulder injury that flared up? Maybe, but it could also be a young arm running into a wall. He's still a possible 2/3 type starting pitcher. Of course, it comes down to how the medicals check out, but velocity reports seem to be fine right now in the minors As a side note, he'd be a nice arm to see if you are in the area.

 

Here's the thing - if the key to a deal is a quality starting pitching prospect in the upper levels, I'm not sure we'd do better than Britton, who has mid-rotation ceiling, if not a bit better. The chances of getting an elite arm, a guy in the Hultzen/Walker/Cole and so forth stratosphere seems slim to none. To be honest, I'm not sure the Orioles would necessarily trade Britton for Garza, at least, not before giving Britton a spin in the bigs first.

 

As an aside, if Matt Barnes is consensus top 30, I'll be ... a bit surprised. Let's wait and see if he's still lights out dominant in a few weeks. I tend to think too much love was given to his low A performance, which admittedly was superb, but really ... if he didn't dominate, it would've been more troubling. He should be easily top 100, and maybe top 60ish, but his ceiling is still more mid-rotation than front of the rotation, IMO, unless the change-up has made major strides that I missed (possible).

[toonsterwu]

Hold on ... when did Britton fail to make him a buy low candidate? At best, you can point to the injury perhaps, but this isn't a Matusz/Tillman case, guys that went through horrid 2011's on multiple fronts (performance and stuff). I'm hard pressed to buy Britton as a "failed"/"buy low" prospect. At best, you point to the injury, but if the medicals check out, well ... a ton of starters deal with shoulder issues through their careers. Not exactly something that would lead me to think he's a buy low guy.

 

As a side note, I don't think I would touch Matusz with a long pole. Felt that way about Tillman last year, and was never a big fan of Tillman, but if the velocity is back, as the 2nd piece to a deal? Eh ... doesn't sound like something that would make me cringe if the top guy is good enough.

[toonsterwu]

The O's rank dead last for me, out of all the teams supposedly in on Garza. And as much as I want a pitching centric package, I'd be much happier with a package of hitting from the Yanks, than a group of fix me uppers from the Orioles. Texas was supposedly sniffing around Greinke and Hamels, I really want to see them get in on Garza. And since we barely outbid them for him from Tampa, we know they've shown serious interest in the past.

 

You'd take low level bats from the Yankees over Britton/Tillman in a hypothetical? Heck, I've been championing the Yankees as a decent team ... but I'd take almost an O's package if Britton/tillman are in it over the Yankees.

 

All that said, no clue if the Orioles would offer Britton/Tillman, and I imagine they'd give them a spin first themselves, as Tillman is dominating, and Britton is still a highly valued piece.

[Tryptamine]

Hold on ... when did Britton fail to make him a buy low candidate? At best, you can point to the injury perhaps, but this isn't a Matusz/Tillman case, guys that went through horrid 2011's on multiple fronts (performance and stuff). I'm hard pressed to buy Britton as a "failed"/"buy low" prospect. At best, you point to the injury, but if the medicals check out, well ... a ton of starters deal with shoulder issues through their careers. Not exactly something that would lead me to think he's a buy low guy.

 

As a side note, I don't think I would touch Matusz with a long pole. Felt that way about Tillman last year, and was never a big fan of Tillman, but if the velocity is back, as the 2nd piece to a deal? Eh ... doesn't sound like something that would make me cringe if the top guy is good enough.

 

Agreed on Matusz, the velocity has been inconsistent and for the second year in a row he's getting absolutely teed off on. I'm not even sure I'd want him to headline a Dempster deal let alone a Garza deal.

[davell]

Maybe it's the O's history, or lack thereof, developing pitchers. You're right, I should go see Britton pitch at some point. I just see much higher upside packages out there, probably with better chances of getting there, in my mind, figuring the O's have messed these guys up somewhat.

[davell]

The O's rank dead last for me, out of all the teams supposedly in on Garza. And as much as I want a pitching centric package, I'd be much happier with a package of hitting from the Yanks, than a group of fix me uppers from the Orioles. Texas was supposedly sniffing around Greinke and Hamels, I really want to see them get in on Garza. And since we barely outbid them for him from Tampa, we know they've shown serious interest in the past.

 

You'd take low level bats from the Yankees over Britton/Tillman in a hypothetical? Heck, I've been championing the Yankees as a decent team ... but I'd take almost an O's package if Britton/tillman are in it over the Yankees.

 

All that said, no clue if the Orioles would offer Britton/Tillman, and I imagine they'd give them a spin first themselves, as Tillman is dominating, and Britton is still a highly valued piece.

I guess it'd depend on which bats obviously, but Sanchez/Williams for sure. Out of their 4 bats, Austin/Gumbs is about the only one for sure I'd take the O's group over. As I've said previously though, the Yanks packages come in very low on my priority list as well.

[toonsterwu]

Hold on ... when did Britton fail to make him a buy low candidate? At best, you can point to the injury perhaps, but this isn't a Matusz/Tillman case, guys that went through horrid 2011's on multiple fronts (performance and stuff). I'm hard pressed to buy Britton as a "failed"/"buy low" prospect. At best, you point to the injury, but if the medicals check out, well ... a ton of starters deal with shoulder issues through their careers. Not exactly something that would lead me to think he's a buy low guy.

 

As a side note, I don't think I would touch Matusz with a long pole. Felt that way about Tillman last year, and was never a big fan of Tillman, but if the velocity is back, as the 2nd piece to a deal? Eh ... doesn't sound like something that would make me cringe if the top guy is good enough.

 

Agreed on Matusz, the velocity has been inconsistent and for the second year in a row he's getting absolutely teed off on. I'm not even sure I'd want him to headline a Dempster deal let alone a Garza deal.

 

Velocity is at least better than last year. I just don't think his quality of stuff is that ... good, and his command isn't there. This isn't to say that he wasn't a deservedly highly touted prospect once ... but right now, he's an end of the rotation lefty, IMO, with some mid-rotation ceiling because of the velocity, but ... not worth it unless it's as the 3rd piece to a deal, and I doubt the Orioles would make him the 3rd piece to any deal.

[toonsterwu]

Maybe it's the O's history, or lack thereof, developing pitchers. You're right, I should go see Britton pitch at some point. I just see much higher upside packages out there, probably with better chances of getting there, in my mind, figuring the O's have messed these guys up somewhat.

 

It's possible that Britton is more messed up than what is being acknwoledged. The reports on his Norfolk work seem decent, but I don't know. Furthermore, as I noted, he needs to pitch much better. Also, the medicals would have to be clear.

 

Here's my thing - in terms of upper level arms that are a tick above Britton's ceiling and doesn't have, say, Archer's huge bust factor ... do you really think we can land anyone of them? I'm trying to think through the arms in the upper levels ... and I can't come up with many, from realistic teams that could be targeted, that have higher ceilings that seem likely.

 

Obviously, this is just ... random hypothetical discussion, and all it takes is one team to get antsy.

[toonsterwu]

The O's rank dead last for me, out of all the teams supposedly in on Garza. And as much as I want a pitching centric package, I'd be much happier with a package of hitting from the Yanks, than a group of fix me uppers from the Orioles. Texas was supposedly sniffing around Greinke and Hamels, I really want to see them get in on Garza. And since we barely outbid them for him from Tampa, we know they've shown serious interest in the past.

 

You'd take low level bats from the Yankees over Britton/Tillman in a hypothetical? Heck, I've been championing the Yankees as a decent team ... but I'd take almost an O's package if Britton/tillman are in it over the Yankees.

 

All that said, no clue if the Orioles would offer Britton/Tillman, and I imagine they'd give them a spin first themselves, as Tillman is dominating, and Britton is still a highly valued piece.

I guess it'd depend on which bats obviously, but Sanchez/Williams for sure. Out of their 4 bats, Austin/Gumbs is about the only one for sure I'd take the O's group over. As I've said previously though, the Yanks packages come in very low on my priority list as well.

 

As noted, a hypothetical discussion, but just between two guys sitting in a hypothetical bar discussing it, there's no way I would take Sanchez/Williams right now over a Britton/Tillman package if their medicals were cleared, and I really like Sanchez/Williams. But if things are cleared medically for Britton/Tillman, I'd take the value of 2 upper level arms with mid-rotation or slightly better ceilings overall, and particularly, because of the shape of the system right now. But that's me, and I don't know if I've ever acknowledged it here, but I'm far high on Britton than some (could be a case of viewer's bias as well).

 

If you make it out to Norfolk and see him while he's there, shoot me a pm and let me know what you thought. I doubt I'll make it down this summer, at least, before Britton gets called up. I figure ... at least a good 2 more starts in the minors, if not 3, before he gets called up (actually, have to check how many days he's been sent on rehab).

Edited July 1, 2012 by toonsterwu

[davell]

Sure will, Toonster. I've drug my feet and haven't been to a Tides game all year actually.

[toonsterwu]

Sure will, Toonster. I've drug my feet and haven't been to a Tides game all year actually.

 

As a total random aside, I nearly was a big Mets fan. Growing up down there for those two years, seemed like all the baseball cards were over-loaded with Mets guys (I imagine because of Norfolk's old affiliation). I haven't been to a Tides game in ... awhile, though. I recall I liked the park, but then again, eh, nice weather, sitting outdoors, watching baseball at an affordable price ... well, hard to get negative vibes in that scenario.

[davell]

There's a baseball card store in Hampton that approached me last year, wondering if I wanted to buy 2400 sets of Tides team sets when they had Strawberry. I thought, damn, this guy is coming in a wee bit late here in trying to make a profit.

[dew1679666265]

Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I don't think I'd much like trading Garza for a couple of, at best, mid-rotation arms. In dealing Garza, we'd likely either push our contention clock back an extra year or two or we'd have to splurge on a ridiculous contract to Hamels. If we can't get some legitimate upside in a Garza deal, I'd much rather just keep him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Can confirm that #Phillies are calling teams on Hamels, asking for massive haul. First reported by @JonHeymanCBS.

 

Extra year of team control or not, any team considering offering an insane prospect package for Garza just turned their heads. Chances are, we'll have to wait until he's moved before moving Dempster or Garza if we want top value.