Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[toonsterwu]

Ok, better question possibly: Name some arms from the Red Sox, Jays, Royals, Cards, Tigers, Braves, Dodgers, Yanks, Rangers, and Orioles you could be happy with as a 1st or very good 2nd piece, that you feel is realistic.

 

Well, I don't know all the systems all that well off the top, so just giving it a spin cycle, more thoughts than anything. Feel free to tell me if I'm crazy on anything.

 

Yanks - There simply isn't enough guys healthy right now to justify making this deal. The more I think about, unless we are getting an elite bat in return, we simply have to lean arms if at all possible.

 

Orioles - I love Zach Britton. To be fair, his ceiling isn't significantly higher than Barnes (but I noted above, I don't dislike Barnes as the top chip ... ). I'd be fine with him as a top chip. It's getting to the point where Chris Tillman might have rehabbed his value. Matt Barnes ceiling is basically the same, and Tillman's more polished. The Orioles problem is ... I can't figure out a legitimate 2nd asset, assuming Bundy/Machado are off-limits, unless they put in Tillman and Britton, which I doubt. I don't know how I feel about Matusz as a 2nd asset - the fastball velo is there, and the secondary stuff is still there ... but something seems off. The issue here is ... will Britton and Tillman prove themselves, taking the Orioles away from the SP market? It's not impossible, although I think push came to shove, they'd probably part with one of them for the right arm.

 

Cardinals - Assuming Shelby and Oscar Taveras are off-limits, I still think a possible deal can be done if they put in Carlos Martinez or Tyrell Jenkins (I'd probably put Martinez ahead of Jenkins as of now). There's a lot of options to put together a deal. I've always liked Joe Kelly more than most, and he's a guy who could step in, although the ceiling isn't high as a starter (Still think he could be an electric pen arm). There's pitching and some positional assets that could fill out a deal. There's really a lot of options here, and I'm hardpressed to see them say no to Shelby, OT, Martinez, Jenkins IF they were trying hard to add a pitcher to make a push, particularly since they've added Wacha to the mix.

 

Rangers - I can dream on Profar, but that ain't happening. You know, depending on what they thought about Vitters defensive future at 3rd, I wouldn't rule out a guy like Mike Olt as a key piece. You know, as good as their system is, it's not the greatest fit due to my opinion on their arms. I wonder if they would part with Derek Holland? Leaving Holland aside for a moment, I guess I'd want an arm from that Buckel/Ramirez/Perez group. I don't love Perez, but there's enough to work with. To be honest, if Holland is off-limits, I don't know if I wouldn't push for two arms from that Buckel/Ramirez/Perez group to go with say, a Mike Olt. It's not like these guys have huge ceilings - all three arms are really mid-rotation ceiling types, maybe a tick better on a good year. Not saying the Rangers would do that ... just not sure that the system's talent meshes with us (for example, really like Rougned Odor, but there's so much middle infield depth, I don't see a point in going that way. There's a lot of guys to fill out as 2nd/3rd pieces to a deal ... but maybe I'm underrating their arms.

 

Uh, gotta step away a bit.

[El Duderino]

the first guy I'd want from the cards is wong, assuming those two other guys are indeed off limits

[toonsterwu]

the first guy I'd want from the cards is wong, assuming those two other guys are indeed off limits

 

I think we almost have to prioritize pitching unless it's an elite bat. As good as Wong is, and a nice top of the order 2nd baseman would be sweet, would it justify passing on front of the rotation potential in a guy like Martinez, who is in AA, or a guy like Jenkins, whose ceiling might be higher than Shelby's, but is farther away? Now, it'd be great if we could get Wong to go with one of them, but push came to shove, I'd really have to lean pitching unless it's an elite bat. The recent draft was interesting, and Underwood/Blackburn offer a lot of intrigue, but are far away.

 

I guess something like Wong/Rosenthal would be interesting, but that doesn't significantly improve the pitching situation for our system. I would hope that the Garza trade is able to improve the pitching outlook in the system, as he's really the only guy that could net that high caliber arm, unless you get lucky on a Chris Archer type. raw, but high upside flyer.

Edited July 8, 2012 by toonsterwu

[davell]

In dealing Garza, what about Rubby as the top piece from the Dodgers? Too risky? I think he's probably got the single highest upside of any of the guys we'll go through, but obviously, he's coming off of TJS. But he'll pitch at some point this year, so I've got no clue how it'd work. But I think my two favorite pitching-led packages would be Delgado and Teheran and Rubby with either Eovaldi or Lee. Again, lots of risk, but if you had an Eovaldi paired with him, I think it'd be worth it. That said, the Dodgers would probably object.

[El Duderino]

martinez is more likely to be a closer than a front of the rotation guy

[toonsterwu]

In dealing Garza, what about Rubby as the top piece from the Dodgers? Too risky? I think he's probably got the single highest upside of any of the guys we'll go through, but obviously, he's coming off of TJS. But he'll pitch at some point this year, so I've got no clue how it'd work. But I think my two favorite pitching-led packages would be Delgado and Teheran and Rubby with either Eovaldi or Lee. Again, lots of risk, but if you had an Eovaldi paired with him, I think it'd be worth it. That said, the Dodgers would probably object.

 

As much as I love talking about what I would like, I would be shocked, even with Teheran's value being down, if the Braves parted with Delgado and Teheran. Just doesn't seem like a Frank Wren move, and if they did that, I imagine they would go after Greinke.

 

Dodgers ... maybe I could see that. Don't know how Colletti will act with new management. I think it's probably a bit of on the high end (which is obviously great for us if it happened).

[toonsterwu]

martinez is more likely to be a closer than a front of the rotation guy

 

He's really polished up a lot of stuff this year. The fastball command has improved. The secondary stuff has improved (not sure how the change-up has looked, but the curveball, which always had potential, is supposedly much sharper and more consistent this year). This isn't the raw hard thrower from last year.

 

Still a lot of work to go, but I think he's going to get every chance to stick in the rotation, and as of now, I'd take him as the top guy in a Garza deal. But that's me. He doesn't have ace ceiling (Tyrell might ... might have that down the line), but he's got "2" potential.

Edited July 8, 2012 by toonsterwu

[XZero771679666304]

I'm not sure I'd want to deal with the Cards if both Miller and Taveras were off the table, given the market.

 

That said, a package of Wong and Jenkins would be fairly nice.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not sure I'd want to deal with the Cards if both Miller and Taveras were off the table, given the market.

 

That said, a package of Wong and Jenkins would be fairly nice.

 

It really sucks to see how fast they reloaded, and to see us always hoping on ceiling. They were a pretty lousy system, I want to say, 4 years ago? Now, they have an excellent system, with an excellent top shelf, and a good array of 2nd tier arms and bats.

[davell]

Miller is scary to me right now anyway. I don't want to deal with them unless it's a massive overpay, since they're our rival and all anyway. If they gave us Martinez, Wong, Jenkins, and Rosenthal, then I jump for joy. But, I think we can get a group of 3 from others that's very comparable.

[toonsterwu]

Miller is scary to me right now anyway. I don't want to deal with them unless it's a massive overpay, since they're our rival and all anyway. If they gave us Martinez, Wong, Jenkins, and Rosenthal, then I jump for joy. But, I think we can get a group of 3 from others that's very comparable.

 

I'll get back to the other teams later (trying to multi-task on a Saturday night), but ... really? You think we could get a group of 3 from another team that is comparable to Martinez/Wong/Jenkins/Rosenthal (I really don't think we could get that in a Garza deal ... maybe 3 of the 4 ... but not all 4).

 

I'm curious which team you are thinking of? I mean, everyone views guys differently, so I can understand it somewhat, but I'm fairly curious who? That's two potential "2" or better starters (Martinez/Jenkins), 2 upper level starting pitchers (Martinez/Rosenthal), 1 upper level ready positional asset (Wong).

 

If that foursome came down as a legitimate offer, I would jump for joy over that package. Maybe it doesn't pan out down the line, but that would be a package I would easily sign up for, with the added boost of stripping away a key rivals system. There might be one or two teams that I could think of that could offer a comparable package, so maybe you wait on other offers, but dang, that's a monster deal.

 

I am a bit surprised that you think a Barnes/Bradley Jr./Owens package is too much, but don't think this one is.

[davell]

Yeah, I left out something there. If we only got 3 of those 4 from the Cards, it's likely we'll see a comparable package elsewhere. I like Wong a lot, but he's not a real need guy for us. Martinez is rated by most higher than I'd have him. I like Jenkins quite a bit, but he's far enough away that he's a lottery ticket obviously. Rosenthal, I like, but the upside makes him a very "meh" 2nd piece, or solid 3rd piece. Which is why I'd want all 4 from them. Even though I know that's at least an extra top 150ish guy than we'd be getting from anyone else.

[XZero771679666304]

I think what he was saying is that if the packages were about equal, he'd rather not deal to the Cards. They'd have to grossly overpay, which is clearly what a package of Martinez, Jenkins, Wong and Rosenthal would be.

[toonsterwu]

Yeah, I left out something there. If we only got 3 of those 4 from the Cards, it's likely we'll see a comparable package elsewhere. I like Wong a lot, but he's not a real need guy for us. Martinez is rated by most higher than I'd have him. I like Jenkins quite a bit, but he's far enough away that he's a lottery ticket obviously. Rosenthal, I like, but the upside makes him a very "meh" 2nd piece, or solid 3rd piece. Which is why I'd want all 4 from them. Even though I know that's at least an extra top 150ish guy than we'd be getting from anyone else.

 

Ah okay. I figured there was something missing as it read ... odd (jumping for joy and then saying a group of 3 would be comparable didn't seem to jive).

 

My random hunch is that if they decided to push for pitching (not a certainty, though), that we might be able to get 2 from Wong/Martinez/Jenkins, but probably not 3. In that case, yes, I'd agree we could probably find comparable 3 man packages from other teams.

 

As a side note, everything on Martinez seems really, really positive. I mean, with Barnes (I'm not trying to pick on that, it's just the arm that we've discussed the most of late), you have 1 plus pitch and hope the other two come along. With Martinez, that's two plus pitches right now and improved fastball command, which was, unless I'm mistaken, a heavy reason for all his control problems last year. I would be a bit concerned on the injury that he just had, but that's a damn enticing package. Not a "lock" to be a starter (but who is), but a damn enticing package, and he's shown well in AA so far.

[toonsterwu]

I think what he was saying is that if the packages were about equal, he'd rather not deal to the Cards. They'd have to grossly overpay, which is clearly what a package of Martinez, Jenkins, Wong and Rosenthal would be.

 

See ... I'm at a point where, as much as it would hurt to see Garza on the Cards as I've grown to enjoy him here (even though he's been erratic this year), if the Cards offer the best package, I'd take it (that is, I don't know if they would need to grossly overpay to justify sending Garza there). We're at a point of rebuilding where we shouldn't care about things like that.

[davell]

As far as another twosome I'd love to see for Garza, Odorizzi and Ventura would be excellent, in my mind. But as much as I love the Blue Jays system, they aren't really a fit, because all their guys are in A ball, unless they'd send us Hutchison(who's hurt) or Alvarez, who they probably like quite a bit more than I do.

[toonsterwu]

As far as another twosome I'd love to see for Garza, Odorizzi and Ventura would be excellent, in my mind. But as much as I love the Blue Jays system, they aren't really a fit, because all their guys are in A ball, unless they'd send us Hutchison(who's hurt) or Alvarez, who they probably like quite a bit more than I do.

 

I wouldn't necessarily rule out Stilson as a possible target. Now, he may be headed to the pen long run, but there's some starting pitching potential, so it would depend on what our scouts reported on what they thought on that, I guess (and how he pitched in the next few weeks). But if they buy him as a starter, that's a decent enough ceiling that ... if the Cubs really liked Sanchez/Syndegaard that much as a possible TOR option down the line, taking Stilson as an upper level, closer to ready arm would be okay.

 

Oh, and I am big on Odorizzi. Have always liked him a ton, and would love to get him. Have there been specific rumors with KC, though? They are barely hanging on in the race, and the chances seem slim they stick around.

[davell]

Thete's a rumor from ABTY at PSD, that writes for a Royals site and has scout contacts with them, that IF they stay in contention, Moore was going to offer ONE of Odorizzi or Ventura, one of Montgomery or Dwyer, and maybe Cuthbert, if we'd send Barney too. Not totally ideal, but close enough to tweak and whatnot, in my mind.

[Guest]

Garza and Barney for Odorizzi, Montgomery, and change? Maybe we should lob Dempster in there too and we could get a hold of Chris Getz.

[toonsterwu]

Garza and Barney for Odorizzi, Montgomery, and change? Maybe we should lob Dempster in there too and we could get a hold of Chris Getz.

 

Yeah, Montgomery and Cuthbert have both taken a step back this year. Heck, so has Dwyer. Goes to show the volatility in value of pitching prospects - couple years back we were talking about the potential of the Royals depth of quality arms.

 

Anyhow, I doubt the Royals stick around. They need more than one arm, and heck, that lineup could use a bat as well.

[davell]

Playing devil's advocate, but my guess is they figure Wil Myers is the bat.

[Guest]

Toonster, I don't want to re-hash things from previous pages since the discussion has passed but I want to say I definitely think Jackie Bradley Jr is an elite prospect. He's basically what you dream of on Albert Almora.

 

Agree with you on Barnes. I definitely don't think Barnes is elite and too many people have fallen in love with him based on his performance at A-ball.

[tgkimmel]

Bowden has a new insider article up where he lists the top 5 players in the Future Game that could be dealt. Only one with a link to the Cubs is:

 

2. Alex Meyer, RHP

Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is not afraid to trade prospects but is not a big fan of rental players. The Nats have a long-term philosophy, so if they trade a top prospect, they want to acquire a player who they can control beyond this year. Because he signed just before the old Aug. 15 signing deadline, Meyer can't officially be traded until after Aug. 15 this year; however, the Nats could make Meyer available as a player to be named later in a deal at the deadline if they can acquire a center fielder such as the Minnesota Twins’ Denard Span or Ben Revere, or a starter such as Chicago Cubs right-hander Matt Garza.

 

Meyer was drafted in the first round last year out of the University of Kentucky and signed by Reed Dunn. The Indiana native was the No. 23 player taken overall, earning a $2 million signing bonus. Meyer is off to a strong professional start at low Class A Hagerstown, recording 98 strikeouts with just 64 hits allowed in 84 innings pitched. He profiles to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but if the Nats can acquire a significant player that they can control, they could pull the trigger and deal him.

 

Other four are 1- Jean Segura, SS, LAA, 3-Tommy Joseph, C, SF, 4-Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Cin and 5 - Chris Reed, LHP, LAD

 

Of course it is Bowden and simply throwing darts is probable more reliable, but since it specifically mentioned Garza I thought I'd share.

[rawaction]

Bowden has a new insider article up where he lists the top 5 players in the Future Game that could be dealt. Only one with a link to the Cubs is:

 

2. Alex Meyer, RHP

Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is not afraid to trade prospects but is not a big fan of rental players. The Nats have a long-term philosophy, so if they trade a top prospect, they want to acquire a player who they can control beyond this year. Because he signed just before the old Aug. 15 signing deadline, Meyer can't officially be traded until after Aug. 15 this year; however, the Nats could make Meyer available as a player to be named later in a deal at the deadline if they can acquire a center fielder such as the Minnesota Twins’ Denard Span or Ben Revere, or a starter such as Chicago Cubs right-hander Matt Garza.

 

Meyer was drafted in the first round last year out of the University of Kentucky and signed by Reed Dunn. The Indiana native was the No. 23 player taken overall, earning a $2 million signing bonus. Meyer is off to a strong professional start at low Class A Hagerstown, recording 98 strikeouts with just 64 hits allowed in 84 innings pitched. He profiles to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but if the Nats can acquire a significant player that they can control, they could pull the trigger and deal him.

 

Other four are 1- Jean Segura, SS, LAA, 3-Tommy Joseph, C, SF, 4-Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Cin and 5 - Chris Reed, LHP, LAD

 

Of course it is Bowden and simply throwing darts is probable more reliable, but since it specifically mentioned Garza I thought I'd share.

 

Wait, so Meyer could potentially go in a trades for:

 

a) Denard Span, b) Ben Revere or c) Matt Garza.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Bowden has a new insider article up where he lists the top 5 players in the Future Game that could be dealt. Only one with a link to the Cubs is:

 

2. Alex Meyer, RHP

Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is not afraid to trade prospects but is not a big fan of rental players. The Nats have a long-term philosophy, so if they trade a top prospect, they want to acquire a player who they can control beyond this year. Because he signed just before the old Aug. 15 signing deadline, Meyer can't officially be traded until after Aug. 15 this year; however, the Nats could make Meyer available as a player to be named later in a deal at the deadline if they can acquire a center fielder such as the Minnesota Twins’ Denard Span or Ben Revere, or a starter such as Chicago Cubs right-hander Matt Garza.

 

Meyer was drafted in the first round last year out of the University of Kentucky and signed by Reed Dunn. The Indiana native was the No. 23 player taken overall, earning a $2 million signing bonus. Meyer is off to a strong professional start at low Class A Hagerstown, recording 98 strikeouts with just 64 hits allowed in 84 innings pitched. He profiles to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but if the Nats can acquire a significant player that they can control, they could pull the trigger and deal him.

 

Other four are 1- Jean Segura, SS, LAA, 3-Tommy Joseph, C, SF, 4-Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Cin and 5 - Chris Reed, LHP, LAD

 

Of course it is Bowden and simply throwing darts is probable more reliable, but since it specifically mentioned Garza I thought I'd share.

 

Wait, so Meyer could potentially go in a trades for:

 

a) Denard Span, b) Ben Revere or c) Matt Garza.

 

Perhaps we could offer them Garza AND Reed Johnson.