Hope for Vitters

TruffleShuffle · June 19, 2011

everyone talks about his contact skills like he's uncanny, but really he hasn't been that great before this year. he struck out in 16.3% of his plate appearances coming into 2011 - compare that to guys like castro or lemahieu, who struck out in 11% of their minor league plate appearances. that's one area where vitters has actually shown a lot of progression this year - he's struck out in just 8.4% of his plate appearances, or about half the rate that he had in previous years. it's becoming pretty obvious that he's not going to walk much, so in order to be productive he's going to have to be a high-contact player who hits over .300 and also shows some pop.

the fielding issues are another story, and if he can't stick at 3b then it's hard to see him being worth much.

craig · June 19, 2011

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF? He's improving but to what end?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/79/sort/OPS/order/true

OPS by position.

Half of the teams in mlb have left-field OPS of less than .710.

Only two have LF OPS over .817 (Milwaukee and Cardinals, of course).

Only five teams other than the Cubs have LF OPS above .790.

Sixteen big-league teams have 1B-OPS of less than .780.

Only nine teams have 1B-OPS higher than .832.

I think it's within the range of plausibility that Vitters will improve his power or production so that he become an asset hitter relative to LF, perhaps even relative to 1B.

Other positional notes:

2B: Only 5 teams with OPS over .760.

3B: Only 4 teams have ten 3B HR's. Only two have 3B OPS over .780.

21 Teams have 3B OPS below .720!

19 Teams have 5 or fewer 3B HR's.

Given the poverty of 3B hitting and power, I think it's with the range of plausibility that Lemahieu could become an asset hitter relative to 3B, even if his HR power never evolves past 8-10 per year.

Obviously what's plausible and what actually happens gor Vitters and Lemahieu may differ. But I don't think their hitting potential is unsuited to LF and 3B.

imb · June 19, 2011

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF?

He's improving but to what end?

It's a process, not an event...

What he's always had going for him is the age factor- always very young for his league, how he improves at every stop & just how good he's at making contact.

What he needs to do is improve is OBP/walk rate & defense. He knows this & the Cubs know this- they're working on it. With his skill set & his constant track record of improving, I see no reason to seriously doubt he'll make these improvements.

It's hard for me to get too stoked about his adjustments when they grant him a .780 OPS. I mean, technically that's an improvement over .676, but it's still kind of useless.

TruffleShuffle · June 19, 2011

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF? He's improving but to what end?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/79/sort/OPS/order/true

OPS by position.

Half of the teams in mlb have left-field OPS of less than .710.
Only two have LF OPS over .817 (Milwaukee and Cardinals, of course).
Only five teams other than the Cubs have LF OPS above .790.

Sixteen big-league teams have 1B-OPS of less than .780.
Only nine teams have 1B-OPS higher than .832.

I think it's within the range of plausibility that Vitters will improve his power or production so that he become an asset hitter relative to LF, perhaps even relative to 1B.

Other positional notes:
2B: Only 5 teams with OPS over .760.
3B: Only 4 teams have ten 3B HR's. Only two have 3B OPS over .780.
21 Teams have 3B OPS below .720!
19 Teams have 5 or fewer 3B HR's.

Given the poverty of 3B hitting and power, I think it's with the range of plausibility that Lemahieu could become an asset hitter relative to 3B, even if his HR power never evolves past 8-10 per year.

Obviously what's plausible and what actually happens gor Vitters and Lemahieu may differ. But I don't think their hitting potential is unsuited to LF and 3B.

those numbers are brought down by backups at those positions. obviously if you're hoping that vitters becomes a starting LF or 3B then he should be compared to the starters at those spots, not guys like felipe lopez who ops .600 while filling in for evan longoria.

Donzo1679666396 · June 19, 2011

It's hard for me to get too stoked about his adjustments when they grant him a .780 OPS. I mean, technically that's an improvement over .676, but it's still kind of useless.

No, nothing technical about it.

Just part of of the process.

CubColtPacer · June 19, 2011

everyone talks about his contact skills like he's uncanny, but really he hasn't been that great before this year. he struck out in 16.3% of his plate appearances coming into 2011 - compare that to guys like castro or lemahieu, who struck out in 11% of their minor league plate appearances. that's one area where vitters has actually shown a lot of progression this year - he's struck out in just 8.4% of his plate appearances, or about half the rate that he had in previous years. it's becoming pretty obvious that he's not going to walk much, so in order to be productive he's going to have to be a high-contact player who hits over .300 and also shows some pop.

the fielding issues are another story, and if he can't stick at 3b then it's hard to see him being worth much.

The incredible plate coverage was a consistent part of his scouting report. It's one of the main things that scouts saw that kept them thinking Vitters could improve greatly. It hasn't really shown itself in his statistics until this year..

imb · June 19, 2011

It's hard for me to get too stoked about his adjustments when they grant him a .780 OPS. I mean, technically that's an improvement over .676, but it's still kind of useless.

No, nothing technical about it.

Just part of of the process.

But if the process ends up with a .780 opsing leftfielder, who cares?

I have as big a prospect boner as anyone (how's that for a visual?), but if Vitters wasn't a cub, and someone tried to sell me on him as a legitimate prospect, I would immediately dismiss them.

Donzo1679666396 · June 19, 2011

So, do you think the constant process of improving has stopped?

jumbo · June 19, 2011

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF? He's improving but to what end?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/79/sort/OPS/order/true

OPS by position.

Half of the teams in mlb have left-field OPS of less than .710.
Only two have LF OPS over .817 (Milwaukee and Cardinals, of course).
Only five teams other than the Cubs have LF OPS above .790.

Sixteen big-league teams have 1B-OPS of less than .780.
Only nine teams have 1B-OPS higher than .832.

I think it's within the range of plausibility that Vitters will improve his power or production so that he become an asset hitter relative to LF, perhaps even relative to 1B.

Other positional notes:
2B: Only 5 teams with OPS over .760.
3B: Only 4 teams have ten 3B HR's. Only two have 3B OPS over .780.
21 Teams have 3B OPS below .720!
19 Teams have 5 or fewer 3B HR's.

Given the poverty of 3B hitting and power, I think it's with the range of plausibility that Lemahieu could become an asset hitter relative to 3B, even if his HR power never evolves past 8-10 per year.

Obviously what's plausible and what actually happens gor Vitters and Lemahieu may differ. But I don't think their hitting potential is unsuited to LF and 3B.

According to BR, there are 79 players with career OPS of 780 or above (min 3000 PA), by position:

1B: 20

2B: 5

3B: 11

SS: 4

LF: 8

CF: 9

RF: 13

C: 5

DH: 4

I'm not sure how relevant you'll find this, but the last post made me curious

imb · June 19, 2011

I think the constant process of improving seems to be topping out at a below-average hitter

He goes to daytona as a 19-year old and ends up with a .604 OPS. He goes back as a 20-year old and ends up with a .795 OPS. Yeah, that's a big improvement, but it's still a .795 OPS.

He goes to Tennessee as a 20-year old and ends up with a .676 OPS. Now he's back there as a 21-year old, and he's riding a huge hot streak all the way to a ... .787 OPS.

It's like re-taking the ACT and going from a 12 to a 17. Congrats, but you still aren't getting into a good school.

CubsWin · June 19, 2011

I think the constant process of improving seems to be topping out at a below-average hitter

He goes to daytona as a 19-year old and ends up with a .604 OPS. He goes back as a 20-year old and ends up with a .795 OPS. Yeah, that's a big improvement, but it's still a .795 OPS.
He goes to Tennessee as a 20-year old and ends up with a .676 OPS. Now he's back there as a 21-year old, and he's riding a huge hot streak all the way to a ... .787 OPS.

It's like re-taking the ACT and going from a 12 to a 17. Congrats, but you still aren't getting into a good school.

I love this analogy, but you left out one thing. He's taking those ACTs as a sophomore.

imb · June 19, 2011

I think the constant process of improving seems to be topping out at a below-average hitter

He goes to daytona as a 19-year old and ends up with a .604 OPS. He goes back as a 20-year old and ends up with a .795 OPS. Yeah, that's a big improvement, but it's still a .795 OPS.
He goes to Tennessee as a 20-year old and ends up with a .676 OPS. Now he's back there as a 21-year old, and he's riding a huge hot streak all the way to a ... .787 OPS.

It's like re-taking the ACT and going from a 12 to a 17. Congrats, but you still aren't getting into a good school.
I love this analogy, but you left out one thing. He's taking those ACTs as a sophomore.

Yeah, I try not to be too negative about his chances because of that very fact. But at a certain point, you have to hit, right? Doogie Howser wouldn't have gotten credit for being a child doctor if he was killing patients left and right.

I guess maybe Vitters could theoretically cool off from this hot streak and still play out the rest of the year in between low-.700 OPS boreathon and 1.100 OPS monster. If that happens I'll be a little more excited. It's just that every time I think he's turned a corner or whatever, I look at his BR page and realize he still hasn't learned the play the field, take a walk or hit for much power.

jumbo · June 19, 2011

I think the constant process of improving seems to be topping out at a below-average hitter

He goes to daytona as a 19-year old and ends up with a .604 OPS. He goes back as a 20-year old and ends up with a .795 OPS. Yeah, that's a big improvement, but it's still a .795 OPS.
He goes to Tennessee as a 20-year old and ends up with a .676 OPS. Now he's back there as a 21-year old, and he's riding a huge hot streak all the way to a ... .787 OPS.

It's like re-taking the ACT and going from a 12 to a 17. Congrats, but you still aren't getting into a good school.

What OPS would Vitters have to maintain as a major league player to make him a success? Feel free to answer by position if that makes it easier.

jumbo · June 19, 2011

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF? He's improving but to what end?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/79/sort/OPS/order/true

OPS by position.

Half of the teams in mlb have left-field OPS of less than .710.
Only two have LF OPS over .817 (Milwaukee and Cardinals, of course).
Only five teams other than the Cubs have LF OPS above .790.

Sixteen big-league teams have 1B-OPS of less than .780.
Only nine teams have 1B-OPS higher than .832.

I think it's within the range of plausibility that Vitters will improve his power or production so that he become an asset hitter relative to LF, perhaps even relative to 1B.

Other positional notes:
2B: Only 5 teams with OPS over .760.
3B: Only 4 teams have ten 3B HR's. Only two have 3B OPS over .780.
21 Teams have 3B OPS below .720!
19 Teams have 5 or fewer 3B HR's.

Given the poverty of 3B hitting and power, I think it's with the range of plausibility that Lemahieu could become an asset hitter relative to 3B, even if his HR power never evolves past 8-10 per year.

Obviously what's plausible and what actually happens gor Vitters and Lemahieu may differ. But I don't think their hitting potential is unsuited to LF and 3B.

According to BR, there are 79 players with career OPS of 780 or above (min 3000 PA), by position:

1B: 20
2B: 5
3B: 11
SS: 4
LF: 8
CF: 9
RF: 13
C: 5
DH: 4

I'm not sure how relevant you'll find this, but the last post made me curious

As a follow up to this, here are the Cubs players who have an OPS higher than 780 (this season):

1.086 - Reed Johnson

0.837 - Jeff Baker

0.829 - Alfonso Soriano

0.822 - Carlos Zambrano

0.810 - Kosuke Fukudome

0.781 - Starlin Castro

Just Missed:

0.765 - Marlon Byrd

0.763 - Carlos Pena

0.728 - Aramis Ramirez

imb · June 19, 2011

I think the constant process of improving seems to be topping out at a below-average hitter

He goes to daytona as a 19-year old and ends up with a .604 OPS. He goes back as a 20-year old and ends up with a .795 OPS. Yeah, that's a big improvement, but it's still a .795 OPS.
He goes to Tennessee as a 20-year old and ends up with a .676 OPS. Now he's back there as a 21-year old, and he's riding a huge hot streak all the way to a ... .787 OPS.

It's like re-taking the ACT and going from a 12 to a 17. Congrats, but you still aren't getting into a good school.

What OPS would Vitters have to maintain as a major league player to make him a success? Feel free to answer by position if that makes it easier.

Depends on if this new deadball era stuff continues, I guess. Something like a .750 OPS is probably like fifth-highest for qualifying LFs and 3Bs this year.

To play it safe, if he's a third baseman or LF, he's probably going to need to be at .800, minimum. .290/.330/.470 doesn't sound too outlandish, but it also doesn't really get my heart racing. If he's a first baseman, he's going to have to top that, and since he's likely never going to walk much, he either needs to show a lot more power or hit about .330, neither of which seems likely.

It's like, do you consider Tyler Colvin a success? It's a real question, because you could say "hey, most first rounders never make the majors!" or "most first rounders never hit 20 home runs." So, yeah, he's a success. But at the same time, I'd like to shoot a little higher than that.

FloridaCubbie · June 19, 2011

So he is becoming Randall Simon?

That's not worthless, but it's still disappointing.

Edited June 19, 2011 by FloridaCubbie

craig · June 19, 2011

I expect Vitters will be below-average defensively no matter where he ends up, probably significantly so. So he'll need to hit better than positional average to have average positional value.

To be an asset, I assume he'll need to be an .800+ guy, and if he ends up at 1B, probably at least an .840.

I do think the value of anti-awful is underrated, though. It doesn't get my heart racing, but an average 1B instead of needing to go spend $10/year on Pena would have been nice. An average LF instead of spending $136 on Soriano might have helped?

I think the HR's are key. He's got 7 HR's in 200 AB or so. An everyday hacking regular would get around 600 AB, so he's already homering in the neighborhood of a 20-HR.

My thinking is that he'll need to be a 20+ HR guy to be an asset. As a slow, bad-fielding low-walk guy, if he's <15 HR, I think it will be hard to keep his average or his slugging high enough to give the OPS needed to justify him as a defensive liability. But if he's hitting 20+ HR, I think his average should be pretty good, .280+ and perhaps a bunch higher.

He's not going to be an asset, I don't think, if he doesn't hit HR's. But I think at 21, giving his contact gifts, his bat speed, and his current HR output, I think it's plausible to project him ending up as a good HR hitter. That's my hope, at any rate.

Obviously he may have simply peaked out with a hot streak, and he's due for a 6-week low, and he'll end up at .265 with 11 HR's and a .758 OPS and a brutal defender this season, and I won't be feeling as hopeful. We'll see.

davell · June 19, 2011

I guess it's possible that the longer he stays in a situation(even the majors) he could continue to get better. We've only seen a struggle period, followed by solid(but certainly not spectacular) success. So, I guess it's at least conceivable that he'll struggle in the majors, followed by being decent, with the POSSIBILITY of becoming more equipped and becoming dominant......

That said, I expect he'll wind up as a mid to upper 700's OPS guy in LF. Just can't see him sticking at 3B and I figure we'll try him in LF before 1B with the hopeful acquisition of a bigtime 1B this offseason blocking him by the time he's ready for the show. There's value in that though, as it's at least more than I was thinking for him longterm even heading into this season.

TruffleShuffle · June 19, 2011

My thinking is that he'll need to be a 20+ HR guy to be an asset. As a slow, bad-fielding low-walk guy, if he's <15 HR, I think it will be hard to keep his average or his slugging high enough to give the OPS needed to justify him as a defensive liability. But if he's hitting 20+ HR, I think his average should be pretty good, .280+ and perhaps a bunch higher.

i really don't understand this. a difference of as little as 6 home runs is going to affect his batting average that much?

SouthSideRyan · June 19, 2011

Technically isn't Vitters improving to an elite level since he's struggling so poorly to start at each stop? i.e. he starts out OPSing 600 for 100 PAs, and winds up with a 780 OPS over 300 PAs, then he's adjusted and performed at an acceptable level for his position those last 200 PAs. I understand you view the entire season as a whole, but if we're talking about him being a new player after an adjustment period, that changes things.

craig · June 19, 2011

My thinking is that he'll need to be a 20+ HR guy to be an asset. As a slow, bad-fielding low-walk guy, if he's <15 HR, I think it will be hard to keep his average or his slugging high enough to give the OPS needed to justify him as a defensive liability. But if he's hitting 20+ HR, I think his average should be pretty good, .280+ and perhaps a bunch higher.

i really don't understand this. a difference of as little as 6 home runs is going to affect his batting average that much?

I figure that each HR is worth about 10 points in OPS, all else being equal. (Which I know is often not the case...) 15 HR versus 25 HR, that can easily be about 100 points OPS difference.

I'm just doing math on the fly, so pardon the ramble. I'll use 500 AB rather than 600 AB for simple calculation purposes.

Extra 6 HR: = 6 extra hits = 12 extra points in batting average and in OBP.

Extra 6 HR = 24 extra bases = 48 extra points in slugging.

12 extra OBP + 48 extra slugging = 60 extra points in OPS.

A .275BA/15HR/.770 OPS Vitters (not very useful) becomes a .287BA/21HR/.830 OPS Vitters, average at 1B, in the top bunch at LF or 3B. At 25 HR's, .295BA/25HR/.850 OPS Vitters is bumping the top 3 even of first basemen.

HR volume matters.... a lot.

Obviously those are just ballpark calcs. At 600 AB, the numbers don't calculate quite so roundly. If you're selling out to add the HR's and overswinging, so that getting the extra 6 HR's means you take on 20 more K's and it costs you a dozen other doubles/singles and costs you loads in BABIP, then obviously nothing is gained. But if K-rate and BABIP is constant, adding one or two handfuls of HR's adds a non-trivial chunk of OPS.

It's one of the reasons I think that projecting young hitters is so difficult. Because it's just so very difficult to project how many healthy-approach HR's a guy will be able to hit.

you can kind of see whether a guy is going to be a contact hitter, or a walk-taker. Those profiles emerge pretty early. But whether Vitters is a 25 HR or a 14 HR guy, can't tell. Whether Bour is going to be a 30HR or a 13HR guy versus mlb pitching, who knows? Lemahieu a 5HR or an 11 HR or an 18 HR guy as he matures and settles in? He could end up at any of those spots, really. Same for Szczur. Golden might have the strength to hit 35 HR, but will he have the contact skills to hit more than 5? I have no idea. If Darvill grows into 18+ HR's, he might be a really good-hitting infielder. If he hits HR's like DeWitt, who'll want him? If Ha is a healthy contact hitter and hits 10 HR's, probably 4th outfielder or non-asset starter. At 18+ HR's, he might be a nice asset offense/defense combo. Flaherty with 10 HR's, probably mediocre average and not much of an asset as a hitter, and not a rangy athletic defender, probably not a very good starter. But if he's hitting up towards 20 HR's, then his average will be pretty solid, his OBP will be pretty solid, his OPS will be solid, and as a reliable low-errors defender he can be an asset regular.

I just think that often a 6 and 12 HR jump can be the jump from below-average-I'd-like-to-replace to solid-average-above-average-asset to strong-asset-well-above average. Jumps of 50 or 100 OPS points, more or less, can do that. Likewise jumps of 50 or 100 OPS points can decide whether a guy's hitting is enough to justify average/sub-average defense.

rawaction · June 19, 2011

I expect Vitters will be below-average defensively no matter where he ends up, probably significantly so. So he'll need to hit better than positional average to have average positional value.

To be an asset, I assume he'll need to be an .800+ guy, and if he ends up at 1B, probably at least an .840.

I do think the value of anti-awful is underrated, though. It doesn't get my heart racing, but an average 1B instead of needing to go spend $10/year on Pena would have been nice. An average LF instead of spending $136 on Soriano might have helped?

I think that is a very good point. The top run scoring lineups (other than the Yankees and Red Sox) don't have a lot of great offensive players. They typically have 1 great bat and the rest of the team is filled out with minimal bad hitters getting tons of ABs. Cincy has Votto as the great bat, with Jay Bruce having an argument...but none of the other guys with over 125 ABs have lower than a .722 OPS. And the guys with the .722 OPS for the Reds are Rolen and Phillips who are outstanding defensive players. Arizona is up there in runs scored. They have Upton as the great bat, with only Kelly Johnson of the regulars under .730 OPS.

I'd like Vitters to be an .850 OPS type player at any of the corners of the IF or OF. But if all he's going to be a is a .750 OPS guy, then they key is to have 5-6 regulars that are better hitters than he is, and 1-2 others who aren't significantly worse than that. I could see him being like a Martin Prado or a Hunter Pence with a little less power. I'd be fine with that.

CubsWin · June 19, 2011

I expect Vitters will be below-average defensively no matter where he ends up, probably significantly so. So he'll need to hit better than positional average to have average positional value.

To be an asset, I assume he'll need to be an .800+ guy, and if he ends up at 1B, probably at least an .840.

I do think the value of anti-awful is underrated, though. It doesn't get my heart racing, but an average 1B instead of needing to go spend $10/year on Pena would have been nice. An average LF instead of spending $136 on Soriano might have helped?

I think that is a very good point. The top run scoring lineups (other than the Yankees and Red Sox) don't have a lot of great offensive players. They typically have 1 great bat and the rest of the team is filled out with minimal bad hitters getting tons of ABs. Cincy has Votto as the great bat, with Jay Bruce having an argument...but none of the other guys with over 125 ABs have lower than a .722 OPS. And the guys with the .722 OPS for the Reds are Rolen and Phillips who are outstanding defensive players. Arizona is up there in runs scored. They have Upton as the great bat, with only Kelly Johnson of the regulars under .730 OPS.

I'd like Vitters to be an .850 OPS type player at any of the corners of the IF or OF. But if all he's going to be a is a .750 OPS guy, then they key is to have 5-6 regulars that are better hitters than he is, and 1-2 others who aren't significantly worse than that. I could see him being like a Martin Prado or a Hunter Pence with a little less power. I'd be fine with that.

I like looking at a prospect from the perspective of can he be a piece of a winning team and what would have to be around him in order for him to be a good fit. Smart take. Never looked at it like that.

jumbo · June 19, 2011

I expect Vitters will be below-average defensively no matter where he ends up, probably significantly so. So he'll need to hit better than positional average to have average positional value.

To be an asset, I assume he'll need to be an .800+ guy, and if he ends up at 1B, probably at least an .840.

I do think the value of anti-awful is underrated, though. It doesn't get my heart racing, but an average 1B instead of needing to go spend $10/year on Pena would have been nice. An average LF instead of spending $136 on Soriano might have helped?

I think that is a very good point. The top run scoring lineups (other than the Yankees and Red Sox) don't have a lot of great offensive players. They typically have 1 great bat and the rest of the team is filled out with minimal bad hitters getting tons of ABs. Cincy has Votto as the great bat, with Jay Bruce having an argument...but none of the other guys with over 125 ABs have lower than a .722 OPS. And the guys with the .722 OPS for the Reds are Rolen and Phillips who are outstanding defensive players. Arizona is up there in runs scored. They have Upton as the great bat, with only Kelly Johnson of the regulars under .730 OPS.

I'd like Vitters to be an .850 OPS type player at any of the corners of the IF or OF. But if all he's going to be a is a .750 OPS guy, then they key is to have 5-6 regulars that are better hitters than he is, and 1-2 others who aren't significantly worse than that. I could see him being like a Martin Prado or a Hunter Pence with a little less power. I'd be fine with that.
I like looking at a prospect from the perspective of can he be a piece of a winning team and what would have to be around him in order for him to be a good fit. Smart take. Never looked at it like that.

That's similar to what I was thinking about the Cubs system. The typical take is lots of depth, but no clear cut stars. My thinking is that if the Cubs can fill out 5-6 position spots with good production at reasonable cost, then they should be able to afford to go buy a couple solid bats. Similar thinking on the rotation. If the farm system can produce #2, 3, 4, then we should be able to go buy a #1. A fifth starter will come along through the minors or a cheap FA.

Hall7810 · June 21, 2011

Keith Law's Twitter:

Still doesn't walk. "@JRSpecs: @keithlaw Is this the real Vitters or a mirage? .400/.415/.640 in June. Up to .291/.326/.464 on the season"

Among the best RH swings I've seen RT @SatchelPrice: you have no idea how much I wish Vitters would start walking. He'd probably be a force.

Hope for Vitters

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