Hope for Vitters

[CubsWin]

So the Vitters pattern is holding true. Struggle when first promoted, then figure it out. The first two years of this pattern, the struggles had a very small sample size, but they were there.

 

1. In '07, Vitters hit .118/.164/.118 in 55 PAs split between the AZL and the NWL.

2. He followed that up in '08 hitting .328/.365/.498 over 277 PAs in the NWL and just .214/.214/.429 in 14 PAs at Peoria.

3. He followed that up in '09 by going .316/.351/.535 over 288 PAs at Peoria and struggling in Daytona hitting .238/.262/.344 in 195 PAs.

4. Vitters gets his fastest promotion, way too early in a lot of people's minds, after hitting .291/.350/.445 in just 120 PAs in Daytona and then putting up a line of .223/.291/.383 in 227 PAs (206 ABs) last season in AA Tennessee.

5. And this year, he's done it again. In an almost identical number of at bats (205) and 9 fewer plate appearance, Josh has a line of .288/.326/.454 as a 21 year old in AA.

 

He's been two years young for his level, promoted quickly and missed time due to injury. Because of this, his yearly stats have lead some to believe that Vitters is another in a long line of highly touted, high school bat busts in the Cubs organization. But if you look at his numbers after having had time to adjust to his aggressive promotions, they read like this (AVG/OBP/SLG - BB/9, K/9):

 

As an 18 year old in Rookie +... .328/.365/.498 - 4.7%, 16.2%

As a 19 year old in A-... .316/.351/.535 - 2.4%, 14.6%

As a 20 year old in A+... .291/.350/.445 - 6.7%, 18.3%

And as a 21 year old in a partial season at AA... .288/.326/.454 - 3.7%, 8.7% with a modest BABIP of .294.

 

These aren't the knock-your-socks-off numbers that you'd like to see from a 3rd overall pick in the draft, but they are far from those of a bust, especially when you consider his age at each level. He's definitely got things to improve upon, but there's clearly still hope for Josh Vitters.

[Sammy Sofa]

Nice to see a bit of optimistic news in regards to Vitters. Thanks for the stats.

[javy knows my name]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

[Sammy Sofa]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

 

Definitely. Go with something like a Baker/DeWitt platoon at 3B as a placeholder next season.

[Guest]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

 

Definitely. Go with something like a Baker/DeWitt platoon at 3B as a placeholder next season.

 

I think Flaherty would be a good option next season at third base.

[Guest]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

If you want to watch him knock the cover off the ball, it would be better to promote him to the great hitting environs of the PCL.

[CubsWin]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

 

Definitely. Go with something like a Baker/DeWitt platoon at 3B as a placeholder next season.

 

I think Flaherty would be a good option next season at third base.

That's what I was thinking. I'm kind of in favor of going young period.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

 

Definitely. Go with something like a Baker/DeWitt platoon at 3B as a placeholder next season.

 

I think Flaherty would be a good option next season at third base.

That's what I was thinking. I'm kind of in favor of going young period.

I think Flaherty ends up a super sub. Id love to build a younger team around Prince Fieldee, Soro, and Castro, whose the youngest of all but already seems like a veteran that will only get better, and of course, Soriano out of necessity I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Mark Reynolds in the offseason depending on the price and if we can trade Byrd, great, if not he's still a solid player. Sprinkle in the likes of Flaherty, LaMahieu, Jackson, and Vittersnwhen hes ready and keep pumping though guys like Sxzur, Ha, and whoever else in A and the rookie leagues pan out. No reason to mess with the pitching just yet as Z, Garz, Demp, Cash, and Wells should be the 2012 opening day rotation, but as their contracts expire, we have McNutt and hopefully Struck, Whitenack, Beeler and others. We should have a bright future.

[jersey cubs fan]

If he can figure out 3B, there's hope. If he has to play 1B, he's going to be really disappointing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If he can figure out 3B, there's hope. If he has to play 1B, he's going to be really disappointing.

 

Although Vitters, Castro, and Fielder making up 3/4 of our infield could make for some rough defense.

[craig]

So the Vitters pattern is holding true. Struggle when first promoted, then figure it out. .....

 

if you look at his numbers after having had time to adjust to his aggressive promotions, they read like this (AVG/OBP/SLG - BB/9, K/9):

 

As an 18 year old in Rookie +... .328/.365/.498 - 4.7%, 16.2%

As a 19 year old in A-... .316/.351/.535 - 2.4%, 14.6%

As a 20 year old in A+... .291/.350/.445 - 6.7%, 18.3%

And as a 21 year old in a partial season at AA... .288/.326/.454 - 3.7%, 8.7% with a modest BABIP of .294.

 

These aren't the knock-your-socks-off numbers that you'd like to see from a 3rd overall pick in the draft, but they are far from those of a bust, especially when you consider his age at each level. He's definitely got things to improve upon, but there's clearly still hope for Josh Vitters.

 

Nice presentation. When he's not been in his rushed slump sessions, he's been able to fairly consistently walk up somewhere near or above the .800-OPS level:

Boise: .863

Peoria: .886

Daytona: .795

Tennessee: .780

 

Like you say, hardly get-excited numbers, but not write-him-off-as-bust numbers either.

 

I think Jersey's point is very well taken, though, as questionable as is his offense, his defense is as much so. As a future DH, those numbers aren't too hot.

 

His 3B defense is reputed to he horrific. Poster on my other board is very positive type fan, not a cynic at all, he goes to tons of Tennessee games, and he likes Vitters. I was pleasantly surprised when he said recently says that Vitters has looked pretty good at 1B. But he says that Vitters is really bad at 3B, ant that you're putting your life somewhat at risk to sit on the 1B side when Vitters is at 3rd. The reports are pretty similar only worse to the kind of feedback we got when Kelton was at AA.

 

But it's interesting to envision Vitters perhaps blossoming into a capable defender at 1B.

 

I'd like to see him get some outfield action pretty soon. If big-league managers are never going to use him at 3B, his chances are a lot better as a 1B/LF/RF than as a 1B/DH only. Both as a utility player (not a lot of bench guys get carried who can only play 1B). And as a starter. If he's a .780-.840 OPS guy, some teams that would get regular playing time for a solid-fielding 1B. But quite a few teams will have somebody better than that at 1B. Ideally you'd have all three of 1B, LF, and RF occupied by somebody who hits better than that and will field better than Vitters too. But at least currently, I don't think there are very many teams who actually do have .800+ guys at all three of 1B/LF/RF.

 

May be a reach to envision Vitters blossoming into an adequate LFer, though. We know he's not fast, and his infield throwing is really wild. Although sometimes outfielders set up and throw differently and a wild infielder ends up being not that bad an outfield thrower. But who knows if he can catch a fly ball, or track a fly ball, or get any kind of a jump on a fly ball. It may be that they haven't even tried him out there in games because they have looked at him and he has no aptitude. But I'd sure like to see him get that chance.

 

One other Vitters comment. The rushed-struggled-adjusts paradigm seems to work. But I wonder is some of that isn't as much just coincidence. Guys get hot and then they get cold, everybody has his ups and downs. But since Fleita has promoted him anytime he got hot in the past, the perception is that he's mastered, and that at each level he's progressing through adjustment to mastery. But maybe not.

 

Case 1: Peoria. The season he started at Peoria, he was pretty poor for a while, then he caught fire and went crazy. But he had actually relapsed back to his slump mode even before the promotion to Daytona. Not sure Daytona caused the trough, he'd already fallen off the peak and was in or heading to the trough before he hit Daytona. Where he snugly stayed in that trough for the rest of the season.

Cast 2: Tennessee. IIRC, he started out quite hot at Tennessee. He was on the crest when he got promoted and he stayed there for a week or so, then he fell off and went into trough. Scotti has repeatedly noted that he was back up towards a crest when he got injured and his season ended. This year he started off on a crest, he was hitting up towards .400 with a .900-OPS n April, then he fell into a trough and dropped down to .240 BA and the .700 OPS bubble, now he's found a crest again and has gotten up to .280's and .780 OPS.

 

My expectation is that he's a wavy hitter, he'll have his peaks and he'll have his troughs, somewhat regardless of league level. Of course that applies for every hitter, we all know that. But Vitters has seemed a bit more wavy than some.

 

I'd like to leave him be, and see how well he can ride the wave at it's crest. All hitters have their ups and downs, but the better ones are better able to extend their times on the crest and both shorten their times in the troughs and make the troughs less low. Let's let him be for a while. Hopefully he'll stay hot and burn his average up over .300 and his OPS over .800, and keep them there. But it may also be that he's due for another drop and two weeks from now he'll be back at .260 with a .740 OPS. Just let him ride things and learn what he can. I don't think he's anywhere close to being big-league ready, at any position defensively, or as a hitter. Just let him work things through at Tenn for a while.

[Sammy Sofa]

Great analysis.

[Guest]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

[CubColtPacer]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=t_ibp&cid=553

 

It may just be my perception, but I don't think he's made as many errors lately.

[Guest]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

Tenn: 2010 &2011

Daytona: 2009 & 2010

Peoria: 2008 & 2009

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=t_ibp&cid=553

 

It may just be my perception, but I don't think he's made as many errors lately.

 

My perception is he hasn't played 3B as frequently recently.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

Tenn: 2010 &2011

Daytona: 2009 & 2010

Peoria: 2008 & 2009

 

Does 15 errors indicate he's not erratic?

[Guest]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

Tenn: 2010 &2011

Daytona: 2009 & 2010

Peoria: 2008 & 2009

 

Does 15 errors indicate he's not erratic?

If half of those errors are due to poor footwork or drops, then he's certainly not "fear for your life if you're behind first base" erratic.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

Where do you find his current error totals?

Tenn: 2010 &2011

Daytona: 2009 & 2010

Peoria: 2008 & 2009

 

Does 15 errors indicate he's not erratic?

If half of those errors are due to poor footwork or drops, then he's certainly not "fear for your life if you're behind first base" erratic.

 

Well, the guy supposedly has been to games to see the results, all we have is an error total. Obviously fear for your life is going to be an exagerration, but, "the ball is going to end up in the stands on occasion" may be quite accurate. And it's the same thing.

[SouthSideRyan]

42 games at 3B compared to 21 at 1B. 2 of the 15 errors were at 1B.

[Guest]

b-r wins again. Much easier place to track these things: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vitter002jos

[sneakypower]

even Vitters' ceiling isn't very valuable

 

we already know for sure he'll never walk, and can't play plus defense at 3B, and doesn't have huge power

 

so, even imagining he can post .300/.365/.480 lines and play -5 defense, we're still just talking a 2.5-3 win player at best

 

more likely, imo, he's a -10 fielder at 3B and hits something like .280/.320/.440, struggling to average 1 win a year; if he shifts to 1B, he's a bench player for us

[SouthSideRyan]

He's 21, it's still early to write off his ceiling as that low IMO

[Guest]

even Vitters' ceiling isn't very valuable

 

we already know for sure he'll never walk, and can't play plus defense at 3B, and doesn't have huge power

 

so, even imagining he can post .300/.365/.480 lines and play -5 defense, we're still just talking a 2.5-3 win player at best

 

more likely, imo, he's a -10 fielder at 3B and hits something like .280/.320/.440, struggling to average 1 win a year; if he shifts to 1B, he's a bench player for us

He's 21 and still projected to add significant power as he matures. He's also got the tools to play average defense, so his ceiling on that side is something like Aramis on that side of the ball.