Hope for Vitters

[Guest]

There's a lot of room between "can't play plus defense" and a "-5 defender" at 3B.

[sneakypower]

ok, i should have stated "by all accounts, struggles to play capable defense"

 

He's 21 and still projected to add significant power as he matures. He's also got the tools to play average defense, so his ceiling on that side is something like Aramis on that side of the ball.

he needs a HUGE completely unforeseen growth spurt in terms of offensive production to deserve that comparison, offensively; Aramis consistently had .100 isoD seasons in the minors, not .040, to go along with an OPS a full 160 pts higher than Vitters

[Guest]

ok, i should have stated "by all accounts, struggles to play capable defense"

 

He's 21 and still projected to add significant power as he matures. He's also got the tools to play average defense, so his ceiling on that side is something like Aramis on that side of the ball.

he needs a HUGE completely unforeseen growth spurt in terms of offensive production to deserve that comparison, offensively; Aramis consistently had .100 isoD seasons in the minors, not .040, to go along with an OPS a full 160 pts higher than Vitters

read more carefully. :wink:

[craig]

I don't think his arm is strong enough that you have to be afraid if you're behind the first baseman. This isn't Dunston we're talking about.

 

I thought the concerns on his defense in the past had as much to do with footwork and hands as it did with throwing. Given the total number of errors, I think your optimistic Vitters-fan is exaggerating the randomness of his arm.

 

I think you're probably right, that he's bad across the board, his throwing is bad, his footwork is bad, and his hands are bad too. Other than that, he's probably fine. :)

 

13 errors in 42 games, that's pretty bad. project to a big-league 162 and we're talking 50 errors at 3B? Most big-league 3B's don't make more than 10-15, and the good ones don't reach double figures in a good season. Ramirez is not a good defensive 3B, but he was 24 when he last started a season in which he reached 20 errors.

 

Aram is not a high-efficiency 3B, but his career fielding percentage is .949, and the league average over his career has been .955.

 

Vitters is at .855 this season (at 3B)! That's incredible. Although his career fielding percentage is a lusty .901 at 3B. His range factor is 1.88. Over Aram's career the NL league average range factor has been 2.65.

 

Look at the Cubs system (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2011-organization-batting.shtml?redir), then go to the section with infielders and sort by positions. There Vitters sits with 15 errors, while the next highest is Scott Moore with 8, and guys like Marques smith, DJ Lemahieu, Aram are sitting with 3, 4, and 5. (I realize that Aram is the only one who's played only 3B.) But the point, I think, is pretty obvious. Vitters is a couple of echelons in a different world than the other full-season 3B, and grossly for the worse.

 

He's got horrible range; he's got a terrible fielding percentage; he doesn't make plays on balls that don't score as errors because his range stinks, and even what he can reach he's still incredibly errorific.

 

This probably sounds really negative, and in terms of his 3B defense I guess it is. But it's just reality, the facts, I think. He's horrible at 3B. I think he's got a chance to be a very meaningful and useful hitter. And I know we hoped he'd do it at 3B. But I just don't think that's at all realistic, and he'll be turning 22 this season. It's probably time to get him ready to play some position where hopefully he'll be merely bad but not awful.

 

Like I say, I think he's got a chance to be a big-league hitter. Maybe as a utility player, but perhaps as a starter at some corner spot or someday as an AL DH. But I think we're just kind of wasting time dreaming that at age 22 or 23 he'll suddenly turn into a big-league defensive 3B.

 

I think being a decent (but not perfect) hitter is undervalued on this board. It seems we sometimes act like anybody who isn't an .850 or .900-OPS is useless at 1B or LF or RF. But if you look at the league positional stats, how many of the 1B's, LF's, and RF's really are above .840 OPS? I wouldn't dismiss the possibilities of Vitters ending up somewhere as a .780-.850 type hitter in due time. If he hits .290 and in time blossoms into a 15-25 HR type guy, with an .800-.820 type OPS, I think there's a pretty good chance that we won't always have three better 1B/LF/RF bats on the team. I hope we do, but I think there may well be value for an .800-OPS guy at one of those corners.

 

But if he spends all his time making errors at 3B, he'll never get adequate to play any of the other spots as well as he might be able to (probably little chance to be average at any of them, but his chance of being almost average is better if he gets some experience than if he just keeps embarrassing himself at 3B. I guess I think Vitters to 3B was like Fox at catcher or Kelton at 3B.

[Thrilho]

While Vitters' fielding percentage has never approached good, this season it has really fallen off a cliff. Same for his range. Do you think it could have anything to do with the Cubs playing him at first? Here are his numbers for the last couple years:

 

Year Fld% Range

2008 .909 2.65

2009 .918 2.25

2010 .905 2.18

2011 .859 1.88

 

Last year, he had a .912 fielding percentage and 2.48 range factor at Daytona before going to .902 and 2.07 at Tennessee. Are there any factors that could have contributed to this? Any idea of how well respected the coaching staff at Tennessee is with regards to infield defense?

 

I understand playing Vitters at first in a third of his games, as they have, if:

 

1. They think he's an option there over the next two years AND

2. They are seeing clear signs that he can't hack it at third

3. They need to get another guy ready to play third next year (not even convinced this is a good enough reason)

 

If they still think he's got a shot at third I think they need to play him there every day to give him a chance to learn the position. I'm much more confident that he could play third on a contender than first, so why not give him a chance to fail until the dream is completely buried?

 

I can see moving around guys like Lemahieu and Flaherty, because they likely will both outgrow the positions they have enough bat for. But unless 1 and 2 above are true, this seems more like a Jay Jackson "let's see if he can do it" or "we need to get Lemahieu some reps at third in case he can't hack second." As a couple have noted above, Flaherty's bat seems much closer to being able to hold down third for a year, but they're not even playing him there. So unless they plan to play Lemahieu at third next year, I really don't know what they're doing with third at Tennessee.

 

But that's a bit of a tangent. The question I've got is does anyone see any reason for Vitters' defensive nose dive this season other than him just sucking?

[Scotti]

So the Vitters pattern is holding true. Struggle when first promoted, then figure it out. The first two years of this pattern, the struggles had a very small sample size, but they were there.

 

1. In '07, Vitters hit .118/.164/.118 in 55 PAs split between the AZL and the NWL.

2. He followed that up in '08 hitting .328/.365/.498 over 277 PAs in the NWL and just .214/.214/.429 in 14 PAs at Peoria.

3. He followed that up in '09 by going .316/.351/.535 over 288 PAs at Peoria and struggling in Daytona hitting .238/.262/.344 in 195 PAs.

4. Vitters gets his fastest promotion, way too early in a lot of people's minds, after hitting .291/.350/.445 in just 120 PAs in Daytona and then putting up a line of .223/.291/.383 in 227 PAs (206 ABs) last season in AA Tennessee.

5. And this year, he's done it again. In an almost identical number of at bats (205) and 9 fewer plate appearance, Josh has a line of .288/.326/.454 as a 21 year old in AA.

 

He's been two years young for his level, promoted quickly and missed time due to injury. Because of this, his yearly stats have lead some to believe that Vitters is another in a long line of highly touted, high school bat busts in the Cubs organization. But if you look at his numbers after having had time to adjust to his aggressive promotions, they read like this (AVG/OBP/SLG - BB/9, K/9):

 

As an 18 year old in Rookie +... .328/.365/.498 - 4.7%, 16.2%

As a 19 year old in A-... .316/.351/.535 - 2.4%, 14.6%

As a 20 year old in A+... .291/.350/.445 - 6.7%, 18.3%

And as a 21 year old in a partial season at AA... .288/.326/.454 - 3.7%, 8.7% with a modest BABIP of .294.

 

These aren't the knock-your-socks-off numbers that you'd like to see from a 3rd overall pick in the draft, but they are far from those of a bust, especially when you consider his age at each level. He's definitely got things to improve upon, but there's clearly still hope for Josh Vitters.

 

Don't mean to throw a water on your theory but the "trend" didn't start in his Boise/Peoria season because he didn't have a Boise/Peoria season. He had a Peoria/Boise season. He started that year in Peoria and got three hits--all doubles--in his first game. He also hurt his hand and went hitless in the next three games and was sent to Mesa to recover. After he recovered he then went to Boise and tore the place up.

 

That means that the success at Peoria in year three was just that--success. He did move on to Daytona and struggled there. At 19. The only trend there is that the trend for 19-y/o hitters in High A is "suck."

 

So what you have is last year and this year. Not much of a trend. Craig pointed out that Vitters started to hit in his first go around at AA before he got hurt and that he started out "hot" for 3-8 games this year before he slumped really badly. If the trend existed he wouldn't have started to hit so well at AA last year before he got hurt nor would he have struggled through 150 or so AB this year.

 

What I do see is a hitter who has struggled to make adjustments and suffered through long droughts of ineffectiveness followed by, and sometimes proceeded by, incredible flashes of really hot hitting. If Vitters can ever discipline his stroke to swing at hitters' pitches (not to take walks but to lay off pitchers' pitches) then he has an All-Star caliber bat with 25-30 HR power. That's very good power for the post-preservative era.

 

Defensively he's a 1B/LF type guy but, if he swings at hitters' pitches, he's got plenty of bat for those positions. I don't say that he's a 1B/LF because of any poster's observations. Remember when AZPhil saw Vitters take BP??? The Interwebs were all atwitter with how Vitters would never hit. AZPhil isn't a bad observer, per se, it's just that one observer over a relatively short period of time is not so meaningful. However, four years of not getting your fielding percentage much over .900 is meaningful.

 

==

 

FWIW, the 3rd pick in the draft has not been a treasure trove of success. Evan Longoria has done very well for himself but, prior to him, you have to go back to Glaus in '97 to find anyone with more success than Corey Patterson. Phillip Humber is having a nice season with the Sox but he's already been granted free agency once and waived--twice--before having any success.

 

Longoria, a college bat, was picked the year before Vitters (four years younger). Before that you have:

 

• *Jeff Clement (former top prospect who has been stuck in AAA since 2006),
  *Humber (once a part of the Johan Santana trade is now on his fifth organization),
  *Kyle Sleeth (onetime time prospect out of baseball without ever having reached the majors),
  *Chris Gruler (onetime time prospect out of baseball without ever having reached the majors--hiccup),
  *Dewon Brazelton (another top prospect, was drafted because he was MLB-ready--he wasn't),
  *Luis Montanez (who taught me all those years ago a new way to say Montanez),
  *Eric Munson (who, like Clement, was a can't miss bat who missed),
  *Corey Patterson (considering the company should be considered a decent #3 pick).

 

Prior to that you have Glaus who, I believe, could have been decent without the steroids. Glaus and Longoria as bookends and crap in between. Here's a Wall Street Journal article on the very same subject:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303745304576359612358976204.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

While a dig is made about Vitters having never played MLB ball, the kid is just 21 and in AA ball. Very age appropriate. He was drafted at age 17 and been aggressively pushed for the most part.

[Scotti]

Very nice post. I hope they keep him at TN for another full year and we get to finally watch him knock the cover off the ball.

If you want to watch him knock the cover off the ball, it would be better to promote him to the great hitting environs of the PCL.

 

Better yet, drop him down to Peoria and watch him go nuts. Yet, if the name of the game were to see how many hits a kid can get you'd never see promotions. Part of the reason that Vitters has so-so numbers overall is that they have aggressively promoted him. They have been aggressively promoting him not "because he has nothing else to learn at this level" but, rather, to challenge his bat and to avoid (as much as possible) the lazy habits that come from having too much talent for your level.

[craig]

Couple of thoughts:

1. Maybe the decline in range is real. Vitters goes to Camp Colvin, he matures a little bit physically and gets a bit thicker and stronger, and in the process he loses just a little bit of quickness and defensive flexibility.

2. Maybe the decline in range and defense is just a coincidental fluke of small sample size. He's gotten about 80 balls this year, maybe some grounders just happened to be a little wider than last year where he'd have had 90 fieldable balls last year; or the pitching staff isn't quite as pullable for RHP as last year so RH hitters aren't pulling as many balls his way. He's got about 4 more errors than would have been last year's pace, he just happened to flub a couple and happened to thorw an extra two away, that can happen. 1B just didn't catch a couple of the throws this year that weren't any worse than some throws last year that the 1B scooped. The AA scorekeeper is just a little stricter, and is used to more competent defense than back in A, so some balls that he's fumbled this year are listing as errors when last year the scorekeeper said they were tough plays, lets give the kid a hit.

 

To me, though, it seems that whether or not he's actually gotten a lot worse or it's just some flukey stats, it's pretty likely that he hasn't' gotten any better. His ability to play 3B has always been iffy. Everybody understood he might not have the quickness needed right from the start, and that even if he did at first he might outgrow it. And everybody also understood that he wasn't very good at first, and that he'd need to improve a lot with practice. So it was always the hope that he'd gett better with time.

 

But I don't see that as having happened or as happening right now. We can wonder whether he's actually significantly worse than last year, or really more or less comparably bad to last year but just small-sample fluked into looking worse. But I guess to me it seems like whether he's equally bad or actually a lot worse, either way he's not better, and he needed to get better by a lot.

 

He's in high minors, he's almost 22 now, it's time to pull the plug on the 3B experiment. We tried and tried and tried and tried, it's not going to work, it's time to move on to the 1B/LF possibilities. He may be awful in LF too, but it's time to give it a try and give him as much 1B/LF experience as possible so that if his bat does come along, there will some position where he can play.

 

I'm still hopeful (obviously not certain) that his bat and his HR power will come along far enough for him to be useful even at 1B or LF. So maybe I'm more willing to pull the plug on the failed 3B dream because I'm more hopeful about his bat and still think he might hit enough to make it at 1B/LF.

 

Just staying equally bad to last year isn't sufficient. We might argue that he may not really be much worse than last year, but that's still not good enough. He needs to get better, and that doesn't appear to be happening.

[StarlinOnYou]

I am of the opinion his only chance is at LF.

 

I think we sign a big name 1B in the offseason. And I don't believe Vitters can stick at 3B.

[sneakypower]

i'm having trouble thinking of (m)any players who fared noticeably better defensively, relative to their peers, in switching from 3B to OF

 

Miggy Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Kevin Mitchell and Bonilla's defensive statistics all suffered significantly from the switch, and Braun and Sheffield slightly improved to just 'really bad' in the OF from 'historically awful' fielders at 3B, and Pujols and Bautista stayed virtually the same

 

i guess Teahen improved by a reasonable amount, but he likely possessed better athleticism than all the aforementioned guys

[Cubswin11]

Could 2B ever be a possibility? He's listed at 6'2'' 200lbs. That's roughly the size of guys like Phillips and Utley. He would never have to develop the 30+ HR power potential, more like 15-20 HR at 2B to still be an asset offensively. Edited June 16, 2011 by Cubswin11

[jersey cubs fan]

I am of the opinion his only chance is at LF.

 

I think we sign a big name 1B in the offseason. And I don't believe Vitters can stick at 3B.

 

Well, that is only how it pertains to him playing with the Cubs. He can theoretically stick at 1B and be traded to another team after the Cubs sign a real one. But he will really have to show more offensively for a team that wants to win to put him at 1B.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm having trouble thinking of (m)any players who fared noticeably better defensively, relative to their peers, in switching from 3B to OF

 

Miggy Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Kevin Mitchell and Bonilla's defensive statistics all suffered significantly from the switch, and Braun and Sheffield slightly improved to just 'really bad' in the OF from 'historically awful' fielders at 3B, and Pujols and Bautista stayed virtually the same

 

braun was giving back like 30 runs a year at 3b; even if he's a poor lf the brewers were going to save a lot of runs just by moving him off a position where he was completely incompetent.

[jersey cubs fan]

Could 2B ever be a possibility? He's listed at 6'2'' 200lbs. That's roughly the size of guys like Phillips and Utley. He would never have to develop the 30+ HR power potential, more like 15-20 HR at 2B to still be an asset offensively.

 

The descriptions of his problems make me thing that would be a huge longshot.

[Tryptamine]

......I feel this thread is inappropriately named. The last page and a half has been pretty damn depressing.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, it's been a rollercoaster of emotions.

[CubsWin]

So far I haven't heard a compelling case as to why Josh Vitters is a bust...

[CubsWin]

Bottom line, he's improving. He's 21 at AA and he's gone from a .223/.293/.383 line at Tennessee last year to a .288/.324/.462 line in almost the exact same amount of plate appearances. That's more than enough reason for hope.

[imb]

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF?

 

He's improving but to what end?

[CubsWin]

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF?

 

He's improving but to what end?

Yet to be determined. At 21, he's still projectable. But that is the question. My main point was that he wasn't a bust as many had been considering him to be.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Hes 21 years old. A lot of players his age are working part time jobs at Starbucks and Abercrombie and Fitch and facing pitchers who will never sniff the pros.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ramirez made 42 errors in AAA for an .884 fielding percentage in his age 21 season.

 

If Vitters has the athleticism to stick at third, I'm not that worried about the error totals yet. He's young enough to work that out.

[sneakypower]

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF?

 

He's improving but to what end?

a Shea Hillenbrand career

[imb]

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF?

 

He's improving but to what end?

a Shea Hillenbrand career

 

if only we could have traded juan cruz for shea hillenbrand, the world series would have been ours

[Donzo1679666396]

Well, yeah, it's hope. But hope for what? A .780 OPS 1B/LF?

 

He's improving but to what end?

 

It's a process, not an event...

 

What he's always had going for him is the age factor- always very young for his league, how he improves at every stop & just how good he's at making contact.

 

What he needs to do is improve is OBP/walk rate & defense. He knows this & the Cubs know this- they're working on it. With his skill set & his constant track record of improving, I see no reason to seriously doubt he'll make these improvements.