If the Cubs were sellers right now

[Guancous]

Reading the MLBTR summation of the Cubs players makes me want to hand out pitchforks and torches. What a gruesome set of contracts.

 

$4.8 million for John Grabow?!? I've known it for years but it's like it just sinking in.

[apete6]

Can we officially change this thread title to something like:

 

The Cubs Suck, So Let's Trade Everyone?

 

Thanks. Because it's definitely not "if", it's "when"

[davearm2]

JMHO of course, but eating salary should be a total non-issue for the Cubs (and virtually any other team), especially on guys with expiring contracts. It's a sunk cost.

 

The issue is one of, would you rather get more salary relief and lesser prospects, or less salary relief and better prospects? It's impossible to generalize an answer to that one.

 

It depends on the player - which I think is what you're saying here. Should some team decide it wants Soriano, I'd take a couple of low-ceiling A ball guys if the other team will eat a large chunk of the money. If it's Pena or Kosuke, I'd eat much more of their salary if it would get us better prospects.

 

Dumping salary shouldn't be that large a concern for this team, however, considering how many prospects we have coming up and how much salary we're already freeing up in the near future.

Even if it's those guys, it's still an open question. If the team could save, say, $3m in additional money by taking lesser prospects and invest that money in overslotting in the draft or signing international FA's, would that be better than taking incrementally better prospects back in the trade? I'd think it's really hard to give a firm answer to that one without knowing the gap between the prospects, how close to the bigs, etc.

 

However, this draft is one that is going to be prime for overslotting given the depth of talent available. I'd love to see the Cubs take a bunch of overslot guys in the draft in anticipation of being in the position of saving as much as possible from the Pena, Kosuke & other contracts.

What it really comes down to is putting a $ value on the types of "intriguing" prospects the Cubs have gotten back in trades over the years... the Mike Fontenots, the Chris Archers, the Kyler Burkes, the Jose Cedas, etc.

 

If you're the Cubs would you rather get back one of those guys, or instead save an extra $1M in salary on the guy being shipped out? We have a general sense of what draft prospects are worth, in cash, based on where they're drafted. What's the cash value of a guy once he's been in the minors for a year or two? Difficult to say.

[davell]

If we decide to sell, what do we really have that's tradeable? Fukudome? Yeah, if we eat alot of money and even then, we're not getting much of a return. Aramis? Doubtful, because of the option that triggers. And unless he gets really hot, he's not going to bring much either. Dempster? Nah, he ain't getting dealt, unless we fire Hendry beforehand. Once again, we'd probably eat some money, although he'd bring the best return out of any of what's been mentioned so far. Grabow? Yeah, right. Soriano? Nope. Byrd? Not going to be ready most likely. Probably gets moved in the offseason though. Z? Nah, we'd have to eat too much money again. Reed? Yeah, but seriously, what's he worth? Very little. The only guy we have that may bring a return is Pena. I have no idea how his deferred money would work out, but if we agreed to pay that(5 mill) the team acquiring him wouldn't be on the hook for much at all. So, he could at least fetch us a package like the one Lee got us last year. In the end though, it's going to be a VERY disappointing deadline for us, unless we go the other direction and go ahead and BUY, gearing up for next year. Maybe some guys who are arb eligible that the team doesn't anticipate keeping very long or something like that. Basically, something that's built for the near future, even if we're giving up prospects in order to get it.

[Northside Blues]

Fukudome could easily be marketed and could get us a solid prospect. For him it's really going to come down two options

 

1) No prospect (the team acquiring him picks up the remaining salary)

2) Buy a prospect (the Cubs pick up the majority of his remaining salary)

[dew1679666265]

If we decide to sell, what do we really have that's tradeable? Fukudome? Yeah, if we eat alot of money and even then, we're not getting much of a return. Aramis? Doubtful, because of the option that triggers. And unless he gets really hot, he's not going to bring much either. Dempster? Nah, he ain't getting dealt, unless we fire Hendry beforehand. Once again, we'd probably eat some money, although he'd bring the best return out of any of what's been mentioned so far. Grabow? Yeah, right. Soriano? Nope. Byrd? Not going to be ready most likely. Probably gets moved in the offseason though. Z? Nah, we'd have to eat too much money again. Reed? Yeah, but seriously, what's he worth? Very little. The only guy we have that may bring a return is Pena. I have no idea how his deferred money would work out, but if we agreed to pay that(5 mill) the team acquiring him wouldn't be on the hook for much at all. So, he could at least fetch us a package like the one Lee got us last year. In the end though, it's going to be a VERY disappointing deadline for us, unless we go the other direction and go ahead and BUY, gearing up for next year. Maybe some guys who are arb eligible that the team doesn't anticipate keeping very long or something like that. Basically, something that's built for the near future, even if we're giving up prospects in order to get it.

 

I actually wouldn't be interested in trading Dempster or Z unless we got a really good deal for them. Both are still productive pitchers (unless Demp reverts back to his opening few starts) and can help us win next season and don't have long enough contracts to be albatrosses.

 

I think all of Kosuke, Pena and Byrd (if healthy) are tradeable, the return we'd get is questionable, however. I do agree with Northside Blues that we could be looking at pretty decent return if we're willing to pay most or all of the remainder of each of their contracts. Guys like Baker, Soto, Marshall, Marmol and Barney could also bring something in return, though whether it's worth trading those guys is highly debateable.

[Outshined_One]

Fukudome could easily be marketed and could get us a solid prospect. For him it's really going to come down two options

 

1) No prospect (the team acquiring him picks up the remaining salary)

2) Buy a prospect (the Cubs pick up the majority of his remaining salary)

 

Fukudome's other big problem is that he is not arbitration-eligible as a Japanese player playing under his first major league contract, meaning whatever team that trades for him will not get any compensation through the draft if he bolts in the offseason.

[Tarver]

Fukudome could easily be marketed and could get us a solid prospect. For him it's really going to come down two options

 

1) No prospect (the team acquiring him picks up the remaining salary)

2) Buy a prospect (the Cubs pick up the majority of his remaining salary)

 

Fukudome's other big problem is that he is not arbitration-eligible as a Japanese player playing under his first major league contract, meaning whatever team that trades for him will not get any compensation through the draft if he bolts in the offseason.

 

Edit: Reading fail

Edited June 2, 2011 by Tarver

[Exile on Waveland]

I'm not sure that the cost of Fukudome's contract is terribly relevant for trades (other than, of course, the no trade clause). His contract expires at the end of the season. There's no player option for next year. Any trade would be at/near the deadline, meaning the Cubs will have already payed the bulk of his $13.5 million salary this year. Basically every team in a playoff push is willing to absorb some salary, and the majority are typically large market/high payroll teams. The contract may be a point of discussion in the trade, but I don't believe it's prohibitive to a trade at all.

[SouthSideRyan]

4M is still a pretty sizable amount to take on at the deadline for a less than elite player.

[Exile on Waveland]

4M is still a pretty sizable amount to take on at the deadline for a less than elite player.

 

Well, he does have one elite skill (OBP) that should/could be very desirable. Regardless, I didn't mean to imply -- and it's pretty clear now that my overly strong first sentence did so -- that his contract was of no concern at all. It's an issue, but I don't see it as completely prohibitive at all. It does seem that some believe Fukudome to be near untradable because of his contract (which, despite being bad, is mostly in the past). I think Fukudome will be imminently moveable -- the Cubs may have to absorb some salary, but that's rather common in such trades.

[davearm2]

Anyone at least a little curious to know what it would take to sign Fukudome to an extension?

 

Would we want him back at, say, $7M per year? No matter where he winds up he'll be taking a paycut.

[Exile on Waveland]

I'd like to have Fukudome back. He has some attributes (OBP, good fielder, left-handed) that the Cubs don't have in abundance. Obviously that depends on his contract, but I doubt he gets much of a deal elsewhere.

[davearm2]

I'd like to have Fukudome back. He has some attributes (OBP, good fielder, left-handed) that the Cubs don't have in abundance. Obviously that depends on his contract, but I doubt he gets much of a deal elsewhere.

I'm sure I'll be torn to shreds for saying this, but you could add "leadoff hitter" to the list ;)

 

Put Fukudome and Castro in front of a middle of the order on par with the Lee-Sosa-Ramirez-Alou days, and you'd be rockin.

 

Of course the problem is, the Cubs have exactly zero power guys like that in place longterm. (Well, I guess Soto is one.)

[dew1679666265]

Anyone at least a little curious to know what it would take to sign Fukudome to an extension?

 

Would we want him back at, say, $7M per year? No matter where he winds up he'll be taking a paycut.

 

I'd have some level of interest in bringing him back if we trade Byrd in the offseason and Kosuke comes cheap. My hope is that Brett Jackson will be up and ready to start at the beginning of the 2012 season (if not before) and I wouldn't want to delay Jackson to keep Fuku. However, if we can get a decent little package for Byrd, then I'd be pretty happy with a Soriano/Jackson/Fukudome outfield for a year or two. I think Matt Kemp is a free agent after the 2012 season, however, so a Kosuke contract couldn't be prohibitive enough to keep us from pursuing Kemp.

[Sammy Sofa]

Kemp is definitely a FA after 2012 and the Cubs definitely need to target him for 2013 if the Dodger's financial woes keep them out of the push to sign him. Edited June 3, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[dew1679666265]

Kemp is definitely a FA after 2012 and the Cubs definitely need to target him for 2013 is the Dodger's financial woes keep them out of the push to sign him.

 

Yeah, any Kosuke contract would have to keep from interfering with Jackson's playing time in Chicago and a pursuit of Kemp. If we can do those two things, though, a .360-.400 OBP would look really nice staying at the top of the order.

[XZero771679666304]

Kemp is definitely a FA after 2012 and the Cubs definitely need to target him for 2013 is the Dodger's financial woes keep them out of the push to sign him.

 

Yeah, any Kosuke contract would have to keep from interfering with Jackson's playing time in Chicago and a pursuit of Kemp. If we can do those two things, though, a .360-.400 OBP would look really nice staying at the top of the order.

 

I actually made a thread about this a while back. I'd like to keep Kosuke around, as long as it wouldn't block anyone. He just bought a house in Chicago and said he'd like to stay here, so maybe he could be kept around for a reasonable amount, maybe 5-7MM per, maybe on a year to year basis.

 

Now that it appears that Colvin might have been a mirage, it opens up some options. If Byrd could be dealt, it would increase the viability of the idea. I like Kosuke's OBP and defense a lot. Much depends on how the rest of this year plays out. If he maintains performance throughout the season, he might draw a fair amount of interest.

[davell]

I think our OF next year will be Soriano/B Jackson/new guy or Byrd. I think Byrd gets dealt, if he comes back this year and does OK. If that's the case and Colvin hasn't earned a fulltime spot(which is tedious, to say the least). We'll have another decent 4th OF type, but not one that costs what it'd cost to bring Kosuke back, in my opinion. I figure Campana is the odds on favorite to be our 25th man for the next couple of seasons.

[jersey cubs fan]

Kemp is definitely a FA after 2012 and the Cubs definitely need to target him for 2013 is the Dodger's financial woes keep them out of the push to sign him.

 

Yeah, any Kosuke contract would have to keep from interfering with Jackson's playing time in Chicago and a pursuit of Kemp. If we can do those two things, though, a .360-.400 OBP would look really nice staying at the top of the order.

 

I actually made a thread about this a while back. I'd like to keep Kosuke around, as long as it wouldn't block anyone. He just bought a house in Chicago and said he'd like to stay here, so maybe he could be kept around for a reasonable amount, maybe 5-7MM per, maybe on a year to year basis.

 

Now that it appears that Colvin might have been a mirage, it opens up some options. If Byrd could be dealt, it would increase the viability of the idea. I like Kosuke's OBP and defense a lot. Much depends on how the rest of this year plays out. If he maintains performance throughout the season, he might draw a fair amount of interest.

 

I'd like to justify bringing him back myself, especially since this is such a pathetic walk taking team. But I don't think it is realistic.

[dew1679666265]

I'd like to justify bringing him back myself, especially since this is such a pathetic walk taking team. But I don't think it is realistic.

 

Kosuke would have to be intent on staying for it to work. If we trade Byrd (very realistic if he bounces back from his injury) and Kosuke will take a 1/5-7 deal like XZero suggested, it's a very possible scenario.

 

Whether Kosuke would be happy with that small a deal, however, is another issue.

[questionmarkgrace]

If we decide to sell, what do we really have that's tradeable? Fukudome? Yeah, if we eat alot of money and even then, we're not getting much of a return. Aramis? Doubtful, because of the option that triggers. And unless he gets really hot, he's not going to bring much either. Dempster? Nah, he ain't getting dealt, unless we fire Hendry beforehand. Once again, we'd probably eat some money, although he'd bring the best return out of any of what's been mentioned so far. Grabow? Yeah, right. Soriano? Nope. Byrd? Not going to be ready most likely. Probably gets moved in the offseason though. Z? Nah, we'd have to eat too much money again. Reed? Yeah, but seriously, what's he worth? Very little. The only guy we have that may bring a return is Pena. I have no idea how his deferred money would work out, but if we agreed to pay that(5 mill) the team acquiring him wouldn't be on the hook for much at all. So, he could at least fetch us a package like the one Lee got us last year. In the end though, it's going to be a VERY disappointing deadline for us, unless we go the other direction and go ahead and BUY, gearing up for next year. Maybe some guys who are arb eligible that the team doesn't anticipate keeping very long or something like that. Basically, something that's built for the near future, even if we're giving up prospects in order to get it.

 

Well said. plus pretty much everyone has a no trade clause so if, for some crazy reason, any of these guys wants to stay in chicago we are stuck with them. But yeah, I expect little to no movement.

[soapy]

I'd be all for bringing back Kosuke at something like 1/7. I'd do it in a heartbeat. Despite the lack of power, the approach he takes is great, as of course is the obp, which this team needs more of, not less (same could probably be said for power though, I guess). I'm all for shopping Byrd and re-signing Fukudome to a reasonable deal.

 

Having said that, I'd be boarderline shocked if it happened assuming Hendry is still GM. I think Byrd is the type of player he loves and I can't see him looking to trade Byrd to make room for B. Jackson. I think he'll trade Fukudome at the deadline or just lose him to FA.

[Sammy Sofa]

If we decide to sell, what do we really have that's tradeable? Fukudome? Yeah, if we eat alot of money and even then, we're not getting much of a return. Aramis? Doubtful, because of the option that triggers. And unless he gets really hot, he's not going to bring much either. Dempster? Nah, he ain't getting dealt, unless we fire Hendry beforehand. Once again, we'd probably eat some money, although he'd bring the best return out of any of what's been mentioned so far. Grabow? Yeah, right. Soriano? Nope. Byrd? Not going to be ready most likely. Probably gets moved in the offseason though. Z? Nah, we'd have to eat too much money again. Reed? Yeah, but seriously, what's he worth? Very little. The only guy we have that may bring a return is Pena. I have no idea how his deferred money would work out, but if we agreed to pay that(5 mill) the team acquiring him wouldn't be on the hook for much at all. So, he could at least fetch us a package like the one Lee got us last year. In the end though, it's going to be a VERY disappointing deadline for us, unless we go the other direction and go ahead and BUY, gearing up for next year. Maybe some guys who are arb eligible that the team doesn't anticipate keeping very long or something like that. Basically, something that's built for the near future, even if we're giving up prospects in order to get it.

 

Well said. plus pretty much everyone has a no trade clause so if, for some crazy reason, any of these guys wants to stay in chicago we are stuck with them. But yeah, I expect little to no movement.

 

It's very unlikely that players who have contracts ending after the current season would use their NTC to avoid moving to what would almost certainly be a better a team and thus ideally a good chance to better shop/highlight their abilities for their next contracts. Aramis is about the only one I could see making that unusual choice; if he turns it on and has a monster season the rest of the way he could want to avoid being locked in to next season wherever he would end up since his team option automatically vests if traded.

 

NTC are not the insurmountable obstacles that a lot of people here think they are when it comes to trading a player who has a contract coming to an end and they're playing on a bad team.

[dew1679666265]

plus pretty much everyone has a no trade clause so if, for some crazy reason, any of these guys wants to stay in chicago we are stuck with them. But yeah, I expect little to no movement.

 

Soriano, Z, Aramis and Shark have NTCs. Z and Aramis also have 10/5 rights, negating the NTC, and Soriano is basically untradeable even without the NTC. Shark is probably worth more as a decent middle reliever than traded away for a raw A-ball pitcher since we'd be paying his salary either way.

 

Only four players out of 25 have NTCs and our most tradeable assets - Byrd, Kosuke, Soto, Pena - don't have NTCs.