Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[Hollandsworths mug]

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What is going on? Is something breaking?

[Cubswin11]

Fielder is Mo Vaughn or Travis Hafner.

How does Brian Lahair compare to those two?

[davell]

I've heard that the Cubs would prefer a shorter contract with a higher AAV. Would anyone here go 6/200? 6/180? What would you give him annually for 6 years?

To me, that's ideal actually. We just have to have the money available to spend money elsewhere as well. Because in signing a Pujols, the clock is already ticking, so you've got to capitalize immediately or at least very soon. I'd hope we have a team truly ready to compete within 2 years, if we get him.

[SouthSideRyan]

6/200 is ideal?? What does that make 10/220?

[XZero771679666304]

Why were people ok with 5/150 but not ~200/10?

 

Even if its220 is five more years for another 70 all that scary?

 

You are asking if $70 million is a big deal?

 

Over 5 years additional years before which you're likely already getting elite production and potentially more very productive years thereafter. Also, $70M in 2016 dollars isn't the same as $70M in 2011 dollars, baseball wise or in general. Or Cubs-wise, really, as we should have a lot more revenue at that point.

 

220/10 and 22 AAV isn't like some horror story compared to 150/5.

 

I too easily envision Albert being a wreck by the time his age 39/40/41/42 years roll around. He's clearly declining, and the risk of paying that 70MM for essentially nothing would be very, very real. It is for the teams offering these 10 year contracts to him.

[Guest]

6/200 is ideal?? What does that make 10/220?

 

Exactly what I'm trying to say, only I didn't think such a ridiculous example was worth using... except somebody actually argued that. Holy [expletive].

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Seriously, other than Davearm, is anyone here actually going to be pissed if we gave Pujols 10 years and 275 mill? I would know it's going to haunt us later on, but I'd still be happy at first. It IS Albert Pujols afterall.

 

I would be really sad if we did that. But I've got fewer than 100 posts and I'm probably stupid. So, maybe it doesn't matter what I would think.

 

People are much better at looking at numbers and diving into them and what they mean. I just watch Pujols and I see a player who is starting to decline. I know many think that even if he declines he'll still be better than most, but nobody can promise me that he won't have a sharp decline when he does decline, and that it might not be in such a graceful fashion.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Wow. I've got 125 posts.

'

Never mind. I'm smart.

[Guest]

I just don't get why SOME people seem to be freaking out so bad at 10 years without even thinking of the AAV but totally willing to do some massive AAV at 5 years. Edited December 7, 2011 by David

[PrimeTime]

Roto

 

Tim Brown of Yahoo.com reports that the Cubs "still prefer" Prince Fielder to Albert Pujols.

 

That's seemed to be the indication, even though Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the Cubs were "definitely in" on Pujols. The Northsiders don't seem particularly liking to sign either player, but they're keeping their finger on the pulse of both situations.

[Rob]

Rob,

 

I want you to give me a list that represents any sort of decent sample size to say guys shaped like Fielder are likely to collapse before age 33.

 

I can do ya one better. There was an article on fangraphs a month or so back that had a nice little graph. I'll just copy and paste the relevant stuff.

 

In order to attempt to predict what Fielder will do over the life of his next contract, we should compare him to players with similar body types. Jeff Zimmerman has put together a list of 205 players who weigh more than 3.25 lbs per inch of height in order to construct an aging curve. To put that in perspective, a 6’0″ tall player would have to weigh a minimum of 234 lbs in order to be included in the sample.

 

Below is a graph that shows the aging curve of the heavy players we identified, and the curve for average sized players. Across the x-axis is age, and the y-axis runs (batting, positional, UZR), with 0 being the peak year. The y-axis shows how many runs below the peak year they are at a given age.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Curve2.jpg

 

Two things immediately jump out from this graph:

 

1) Heavy players peak a few years earlier than average players

 

2) Heavy players fall off the map once they are on the wrong side of 30

 

The rest of the article actually talks about Prince specifically and how much value the author expects him to have over his upcoming contract. It's definitely worth a read.

 

At any rate... the premise that bad-bodied, one-dimensional sluggers age poorly has long been a sabermetric tenet and it would seem that premise still holds up. Is it a certainty? No. Nothing is. But if we're gonna bet against the odds, I'd much rather do it for 5 years than 7.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why were people ok with 5/150 but not ~200/10?

 

Even if its220 is five more years for another 70 all that scary?

 

You are asking if $70 million is a big deal?

 

Over 5 years additional years before which you're likely already getting elite production and potentially more very productive years thereafter. Also, $70M in 2016 dollars isn't the same as $70M in 2011 dollars, baseball wise or in general. Or Cubs-wise, really, as we should have a lot more revenue at that point.

 

220/10 and 22 AAV isn't like some horror story compared to 150/5.

 

So if Pujols isn't really declining and $70 million isn't really a lot of money, then yeah, $220/10 is fine.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Fielder is Mo Vaughn or Travis Hafner.

 

I don't get why people keep talking about Prince, then looking at Mo Vaughn and thinking that's a terrible thing.

 

During his age 30 season, Vaughn hit 40 homers with 117 RBIs and a .402 OPB.

 

During his age 31 season, he hit 33 with 108 RBIs and a .358 OPB.

 

During his age 32 season, he hit 36 homers with 117 RBIs and a .365 OPB.

 

Then he got hurt.

 

When he came back, during his age 34 season, he hit 26 homers with 72 RBIs and a .349 OBP.

 

That last season is not great, of course, but that would be Fielder's seventh season of a seven-year contract.

 

So, if Fielder produced like Vaughn did from his age 28 season to his age 34 season, why would that be bad again?

 

Somewhere around ~2.0 WAR is average for a position player in a full season. He went from 6.6 WAR (slightly better than Fielder's peak) in his last year in Boston to totals of 1.9 and 2.0 the next two seasons, missed a year entirely, then came back out with a 0.8 season and a sub-replacement level -0.6 WAR before leaving baseball entirely. He was never an above average regular after signing his big contract.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again... players with the body type and skill set that Prince Fielder has peak very early and do not age well. There is no gradual decline. It's a nosedive off a cliff.

 

Now I'm not saying I don't like Prince Fielder at all. But he's the kind of piece you add to put yourself over the top in the next few years... not the type to build around for the long term. Give him 5 years and I'm happy. Give him 6 years and show me a blueprint that has us competing sooner rather than later and I can probably live with it. If we have to pony up that 7th year, I'd rather we be shopping in the bargain bin.

 

My problem is that I look at two big things with guys, when maybe I shouldn't: Their home run totals and on-base percentage, even though it probably should be slugging, etc.

 

If Prince can hit 35 homers and get on base at a .360 to .395 clip during his age 28 to 34 seasons, I'm taking it and I'm real happy. The legit 35 home run guys in the non-roid, non-HGH (soon) world are tough to come by. I value power a lot. I really value power when it also comes with someone who can take walks and get on base when they aren't hitting home runs.

 

I love who Prince Fielder is, defensive flaws and all. I want him on the Cubs, no matter what Mo Vaughn's WAR was.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Bryant's Disco Ball

[Guest]

I think we need a sticky with huge caps that says DEFERRED MONEY/BACKLOADING CONTRACTS IS A REALLY GOOD AND SMART THING AND PAYING MONEY LATER IS BETTER THAN PAYING IT SOONER.

 

Because a lot of people seem to think otherwise.

 

This isn't entirely related to the topic at hand, btw...but in general there seem to be a lot of people who don't realize this.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think we need a sticky with huge caps that says DEFERRED MONEY/BACKLOADING CONTRACTS IS A REALLY GOOD AND SMART THING AND PAYING MONEY LATER IS BETTER THAN PAYING IT SOONER.

 

Because a lot of people seem to think otherwise.

 

This isn't entirely related to the topic at hand, btw...but in general there seem to be a lot of people who don't realize this.

 

In general, I tend to assume that players' agents know this as well. But it seems like players enjoy going for high-score total nominal values than getting the most real value.

[davell]

6/200 is ideal?? What does that make 10/220?

10/220 would be fine with me. But, I think 10/275 is much more likely to be where this thing ends at. It's 33.33 mill over 6 or 27.5 over 10. To me, I figure it's easier to cover up or account for 6 mill less in spending over the 6 years than it would be 27.5 mill of the same for 4 years.

[Ballgame64]

Earlier news tonight had a 3rd "mystery team" also offering 10 years and now Sherman says the Cubs are still involved. Very interesting developments.

[Guest]

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman

#mariners planning to meet on prince fielder tonite. Unsure of their chances, but they love him.

2 minutes ago

[XZero771679666304]

6/200 is ideal?? What does that make 10/220?

10/220 would be fine with me. But, I think 10/275 is much more likely to be where this thing ends at. It's 33.33 mill over 6 or 27.5 over 10. To me, I figure it's easier to cover up or account for 6 mill less in spending over the 6 years than it would be 27.5 mill of the same for 4 years.

 

 

I can't see it going that high. 10/240, maybe.

 

And if the Cubs signed Albert for 10/275, I'd be elated for a short time (and for the wrong reasons, probably) before the horror set in.

[Hollandsworths mug]

Jed Hoyer confirms Cubs are in on both:

 

Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said the team's policy is not to confirm or deny rumors but added it would be a mistake for them to concentrate on the two premier free-agent first basemen at the winter meetings.

 

"They're the two players we're involved in, but to wait around for things to happen, you can miss out," he said. "So we're working on a lot of fronts."

 

[davell]

I think we need a sticky with huge caps that says DEFERRED MONEY/BACKLOADING CONTRACTS IS A REALLY GOOD AND SMART THING AND PAYING MONEY LATER IS BETTER THAN PAYING IT SOONER.

 

Because a lot of people seem to think otherwise.

 

This isn't entirely related to the topic at hand, btw...but in general there seem to be a lot of people who don't realize this.

I'll go ahead and say I don't know the rules on deferring money, other than I think you can only defer a certain percentage longterm, but in a case like Pujols, you're damn right. It's a really good idea and I had forgotten about that being an option. Still like a shorter term deal. If possible. If not, deferring money to give us some extra room is a great idea.

[XZero771679666304]

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman

#mariners planning to meet on prince fielder tonite. Unsure of their chances, but they love him.

2 minutes ago

 

Jack Z. loves him, but it's not gonna happen.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Jed Hoyer confirms Cubs are in on both:

 

Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said the team's policy is not to confirm or deny rumors but added it would be a mistake for them to concentrate on the two premier free-agent first basemen at the winter meetings.

 

"They're the two players we're involved in, but to wait around for things to happen, you can miss out," he said. "So we're working on a lot of fronts."

 

 

Fine, Jed. I know, I know, in practical terms there is no hurry. But just for fun, hurry up and do something, please.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal

Sources: #Angels pursuing Pujols. Ongoing conversations

[XZero771679666304]

Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal

Sources: #Angels pursuing Pujols. Ongoing conversations

 

This is gonna get fun. Mostly because every entrant makes it less likely he returns to STL.