Re: Wow Castro

[Careless]

I wouldn't read too much into the Pods vs. Castro thing. It's all about which defensive stats they've chosen to use...

 

Pods comes in at -2 according to TZ, -8.2 according to UZR, and -13 according to BIS.

 

Castro comes in at -13 according to TZ, -1.7 according to UZR, and +5 according to BIS.

 

Using more data is always a good thing, so to get a better idea of what all three defensive systems are saying as opposed to just the one we can average em out and you have Pods at -7.7 and Castro at -3.2 as defenders. That's four and a half run advantage for Castro instead of an 11 run disadvantage. That's pretty huge.

Well, yes, but this was responding to someone arguing that Castro had been terrible on the basis of a terrible defensive metric. That should have set off major alarm bells in the author's head.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why for the love of Dusty would Quade have him sacrifice with men on 1st and 2nd and no out today in the bottom of the eighth?

 

I think statistically, 1st and 2nd, no outs with ordinary hitters both at-bat and on-deck, sac-ing is slightly better than batting in that situation.

 

Run expectancy isn't much different with runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out versus 2nd and 3rd with one out. So even if you assume a successful sac bunt, you haven't really gotten anywhere. And there's still that chance to fail.

 

And the chance for the defense to fail as well. It's pretty close to a wash, that's why I said 'slightly better.' Either way, it's not a bad decision.

[Illini Iceman]

Why for the love of Dusty would Quade have him sacrifice with men on 1st and 2nd and no out today in the bottom of the eighth?

 

I think statistically, 1st and 2nd, no outs with ordinary hitters both at-bat and on-deck, sac-ing is slightly better than batting in that situation.

 

Run expectancy isn't much different with runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out versus 2nd and 3rd with one out. So even if you assume a successful sac bunt, you haven't really gotten anywhere. And there's still that chance to fail.

 

And the chance for the defense to fail as well. It's pretty close to a wash, that's why I said 'slightly better.' Either way, it's not a bad decision.

 

You are leading by two runs in the bottom of the eighth in a game in September when you are way out of contention. Let the kid swing the bat.

 

If it was the same situation in game 7 of the WS with the score tied I could understand the decision. But there is no reason to play for one run under these circumstances.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You are leading by two runs in the bottom of the eighth in a game in September when you are way out of contention. Let the kid swing the bat.

 

If it was the same situation in game 7 of the WS with the score tied I could understand the decision. But there is no reason to play for one run under these circumstances.

 

It's not playing for one run.

[Tyrant]

You are leading by two runs in the bottom of the eighth in a game in September when you are way out of contention. Let the kid swing the bat.

 

If it was the same situation in game 7 of the WS with the score tied I could understand the decision. But there is no reason to play for one run under these circumstances.

 

It's not playing for one run.

 

You're missing the point. The Cubs are 114 games out of first place. There's no reason to have Castro bunt in that situation.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I get the point, I just think it's a silly point. The manager did something he thought was in the best interests of winning the ballgame in front of him, and the stats back him up that it was at least a reasonable option. Rip him for that?

[Illini Iceman]

I get the point, I just think it's a silly point. The manager did something he thought was in the best interests of winning the ballgame in front of him, and the stats back him up that it was at least a reasonable option. Rip him for that?

 

Keep in mind that in this specific case the bunt pretty much also took the bat out of Byrd's hands because you knew they would walk him with first base open. So you have men on 1st and 2nd with no outs and arguably your best two hitters coming up and the strategy used ensures that neither or them will get a chance to hit.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Putting Byrd on base there is sub-optimal strategy. If that's what the opposing team wants to do, let them. There's not enough difference between the bats in the Cubs' middle order for who is batting and who is coming up to make a real dent in the probabilities.

[Tracer Bullet]

I get the point, I just think it's a silly point. The manager did something he thought was in the best interests of winning the ballgame in front of him, and the stats back him up that it was at least a reasonable option. Rip him for that?

 

Maybe. Really good young hitter that you want to get as much experience as possible and your manager has him bunt? I understand Quade is more worried about campaigning for next year than anything else, so he probably thinks he needs to show Hendry his in-game managing skills. But I want a manager that very, very rarely uses the sac bunt. I certainly don't want a manager that has 1 of his 2 or 3 really good hitters bunting with guys on base, esp when the guy has been hitting well lately. If he wants to sac bunt with a pitcher or one of the many scrubs in the Cubs lineup on most days, I can live with that. But I almost never want to see Castro sac bunting. I especially don't want to see it in a meaningless game in a meaningless season.

[Mark Priors Calves]

Wittenmeyer's twitter:

Castro getting at least 2 days on bench to 'reflect' on 'lapses.'

[tfarks]

Wittenmeyer's twitter:

Castro getting at least 2 days on bench to 'reflect' on 'lapses.'

 

Quade for MOTY

[imb]

oh for god's sake

[Flames24Rulz]

i can't wait until this guy is our manager next year.

[UMFan83]

Thank you Quade for taking your name out of the running for manager of the 2011 Chicago Cubs.

[hawkeyecub]

What were his "lapses"? I haven't seen an inning in a week and haven't read anything in that time frame either. Obviously he should be playing now but if he was getting some lazy/bad habits or not focusing, this isn't the worst time to try to send a message. Do it when he's 20, more grounded and we have no chance at doing anything. Just don't do it for more than 2 games. And that's only if it was really something where a manager needs to intervene.

[Outshined_One]

Story

 

"Every so often, it's better for a player to observe than participate," Quade said Monday. "He needs to watch a game or so and can sit with some very smart people on my staff, and keep an eye on things and maybe reflect a little bit.

 

"He's had so much thrown at him, that I think sometimes to step back and take a look at things and take a couple days might help him," Quade said.

 

. . .

 

"I'm a lot more patient and a lot more understanding that this is not [the Minor Leagues in] Huntsville, this is Wrigley Field," Quade said. "This kid has a chance to be so incredibly valuable to this franchise that the more he can do to help himself and clear his mind and be consistent in what he does, is going to determine just how good he's going to be."

[rawaction]

I guess I understand that they want Castro to "reflect on the game", whatever that means. But I don't understand how watching other people play is going to help him. I didn't really watch much of the game yesterday, but I guess it had something to do with him missing a tag at 2B and a runner stealing home yesterday. Watch the tape. Tell him what he should have done and what he should have looked for. What if over the next 2 days, no situations involving the SS to make a decision arise?

[Tyrant]

Story

 

"Every so often, it's better for a player to observe than participate," Quade said Monday. "He needs to watch a game or so and can sit with some very smart people on my staff, and keep an eye on things and maybe reflect a little bit.

 

"He's had so much thrown at him, that I think sometimes to step back and take a look at things and take a couple days might help him," Quade said.

 

. . .

 

"I'm a lot more patient and a lot more understanding that this is not [the Minor Leagues in] Huntsville, this is Wrigley Field," Quade said. "This kid has a chance to be so incredibly valuable to this franchise that the more he can do to help himself and clear his mind and be consistent in what he does, is going to determine just how good he's going to be."

 

Yea, a great time for him to sit back and observe would be the day after he ends a streak of six straight multi-hit games.

[Geech]

Hopefully Quade will have a lot of opportunity to observe and reflect on other managers in action next season.

[SouthSideRyan]

Castro will certainly learn a lot of things watching Darwin Barney.

[wekim81]

Sure thing Quade - let's put the .317 hitting 20-year old that's likely the cornerstone of the franchise's future and let's put him on the bench next to Koyie Hill and Alan Trammell so they can teach him the fundamentals of baseball!

 

Eff that noise.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now here's a real reason to rip the guy.

[davell]

With a man on first and one out yesterday, Castro hit into a fielder's choice. But, he then left first and headed for the dugout, thinking it was the third out of the inning, hence being called out of the baseline, even though there was no play at first.

 

A day off can't exactly hurt things, but more than one seems excessive, if you ask me.

[Guest]

I don't know...I don't like the reasoning, but I think Castro could probably use a break at this point.

 

This is only his second season of full season ball. He doesn't look tired out there, but if they're seeing additional lapses in concentration it probably doesn't hurt to give him a couple days off in a row.

[98navigator]

I believe DeWitt was on first base and Starlin was unaware of the game situation: He was running down the first baseline, the reports I've read that he wasn't running aren't true, but He didn't know how many outs there were in the inning and or he thought he had been called out at first base (even though he was safe). He was tagged out as he left the base on the way back to the dugout. Moments before that play, Quade had come out to argue DeWitt being called out at second base on the play so I think that seeing Quade come out confused Castro and he thought he'd grounded into a DP. He should have at least looked at the first base coach or the umpire to make sure he was out... The bench and DeJesus were screaming at him to get back on the base but he was tagged before he could get back.

 

Anyway, I don't think the benching had anything to do with his missed swipe tag at second base. I've continued to watch every game. Yesterday, or the day before, I noticed the camera panned over to the end of the bench and he was laughing and talking to Aramis and not paying attention to the game. Usually that kind of stuff means nothing to me; I don't begrudge people chatting it up on the bench but when you're caught not knowing the game situation there's a problem. It was no coincidence that Quade also said he wanted Starlin to sit up front near the coaches and watch the game.

 

The truth is these games mean very little to a vet like Aramis but Starlin is still learning and should be paying attention to the game. However, I was surprised he gave him 2 games off. One game is enough.