Z to the pen: How can it accidentally not be horrible?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I originally typed this out in the Z to the pen thread, but it became so long that I thought I'd separate my thoughts out. If it doesn't generate much talk, I'll merge it.

 

This is a truly horrifying decision, dumb on many levels. I'm beginning to think that Lou has developed some sort of Memento-esque memory problem where he can't remember past the current week.

 

However, what would it take for this to accidentally work out better in the long run? First of all, it has to predicate on Z breaking down over the life of his contract. Z has a lot of innings on his arm, and frequently gets compared to Livan Hernandez. Fangraphs only does WAR back to 2003, so I estimated for 2002.

 

Livan

2002: 4 WAR

2003: 4.5

2004: 4.6 (age equivalent to Zambrano in 2010)

2005: 2.3

2006: 1.7

2007: 0.4 (equivalent to last year of Z's contract)

2008: 1.4

 

 

And here are 2 of Z's top 3 age comparables, Zito and Ramon Martinez

 

            Zito         Martinez
Age 26    3.2 WAR     170 IP/100 ERA+
Age 27    3.0 WAR     206 IP/104 ERA+
Age 28    2.1 WAR     168 IP/114 ERA+
Age 29*   1.7 WAR     133 IP/107 ERA+
Age 30    1.4 WAR     101 IP/143 ERA+
Age 31    2.2 WAR      20 IP/167 ERA+
Age 32**   2010       127 IP/83 ERA+

*Equivalent to Z this year
**Equivalent to Z's last contract year

 

Looking at those 3, there's a pretty significant downward trend starting in what would be this year or next for Z. So let's hypothesize, what do we think Zambrano will do as a starter going forward? Using his last few seasons and these comparables as a guide, we could probably guesstimate a 3 WAR in 2010, 2 WAR in 2011, 1.5 in 2012, and 1 in 2013, for a total of 7.5 over 4 years.

 

So the flipside is, how would Z perform as a reliever? His splits are very strong against hitters seeing him for the first time that day(sub .600 OPS against career, all successive appearances are at least a .700 OPS against), although his splits for his first 25 pitches are less extreme. Z's stuff is very good, and would no doubt play up a bit in terms of velocity and sharpness in the pen. On the downside, he can be prone to overthrowing and losing effectiveness, and he has a very diverse repertoire which would translate to the pen worse than someone with fewer quality pitches. Nonetheless, given that he's a 3 WAR starter with great stuff, I feel comfortable saying he'd be an elite reliever. The last three years, there's been roughly 15 relievers per year with a WAR of at least 1.7. I think Z could be at that level for 3 of 4 years, with the lighter workload saving him from the breakdown forecasted by his comparable players. Let's say Z as a reliever has a 2 WAR in 2010, 2 in 2011, 1.8 in 2012, and 1.5 in 2013, for a total of 7.3 WAR.

 

So, depending on how hard you think he'd fall off, there might not be too much of a difference in Z's contributions whether from the rotation or on the pen. Those are obviously just guesstimates, that could be different if he's not as good as a reliever, or his starter's workload causes him to miss significant time in the near future, or any number of things. And to reiterate what I mentioned earlier, I in no way think this was part of the kneejerk decision to move Z there. But maybe if he stays in the pen, it wouldn't be the worst decision in the world. The one thing we do know is if he does stay in the pen, we'll probably never know one way or the other.

 

A last point in this situation, is the pitchers around Z, and it's the real reason why this is a dumb decision first and foremost. To do something as rash as moving your opening day starter to the pen without giving guys like Stevens, Parker, or Gaub a shot to be a fix in the bullpen, or even to give your current pen more than FIFTEEN GAMES to work out a reasonable pecking order, is really really shortsighted. But it does mean Gorzelanny(who I think is a valuable piece) gets an extended audition as a starter, and it makes it a little easier to slot someone like Jackson or Cashner into the rotation in the near future.

 

Looooong story short, this is really dumb. Z has a lot of value as an effective durable starter, and he's come back from these episodes of ineffectiveness many times before. But if you think that Z is doomed to the fate of those comparables and won't be nearly as effective by the end of his contract(or worse), then maybe it's not the worst thing that he ends up in the pen.

[bhogg]

any chance he's hurt. . . .not so much that he can't pitch, but to the point that he can't pitch 6+ innings?

[Keener98]

any chance he's hurt. . . .not so much that he can't pitch, but to the point that he can't pitch 6+ innings?

 

I have a hard time thinking that considering hes been over 110 pitches in each of his last 2 outings.

[UMFan83]

I originally typed this out in the Z to the pen thread, but it became so long that I thought I'd separate my thoughts out. If it doesn't generate much talk, I'll merge it.

 

This is a truly horrifying decision, dumb on many levels. I'm beginning to think that Lou has developed some sort of Memento-esque memory problem where he can't remember past the current week.

 

However, what would it take for this to accidentally work out better in the long run? First of all, it has to predicate on Z breaking down over the life of his contract. Z has a lot of innings on his arm, and frequently gets compared to Livan Hernandez. Fangraphs only does WAR back to 2003, so I estimated for 2002.

 

Livan

2002: 4 WAR

2003: 4.5

2004: 4.6 (age equivalent to Zambrano in 2010)

2005: 2.3

2006: 1.7

2007: 0.4 (equivalent to last year of Z's contract)

2008: 1.4

 

 

And here are 2 of Z's top 3 age comparables, Zito and Ramon Martinez

 

            Zito         Martinez
Age 26    3.2 WAR     170 IP/100 ERA+
Age 27    3.0 WAR     206 IP/104 ERA+
Age 28    2.1 WAR     168 IP/114 ERA+
Age 29*   1.7 WAR     133 IP/107 ERA+
Age 30    1.4 WAR     101 IP/143 ERA+
Age 31    2.2 WAR      20 IP/167 ERA+
Age 32**   2010       127 IP/83 ERA+

*Equivalent to Z this year
**Equivalent to Z's last contract year

 

Looking at those 3, there's a pretty significant downward trend starting in what would be this year or next for Z. So let's hypothesize, what do we think Zambrano will do as a starter going forward? Using his last few seasons and these comparables as a guide, we could probably guesstimate a 3 WAR in 2010, 2 WAR in 2011, 1.5 in 2012, and 1 in 2013, for a total of 7.5 over 4 years.

 

So the flipside is, how would Z perform as a reliever? His splits are very strong against hitters seeing him for the first time that day(sub .600 OPS against career, all successive appearances are at least a .700 OPS against), although his splits for his first 25 pitches are less extreme. Z's stuff is very good, and would no doubt play up a bit in terms of velocity and sharpness in the pen. On the downside, he can be prone to overthrowing and losing effectiveness, and he has a very diverse repertoire which would translate to the pen worse than someone with fewer quality pitches. Nonetheless, given that he's a 3 WAR starter with great stuff, I feel comfortable saying he'd be an elite reliever. The last three years, there's been roughly 15 relievers per year with a WAR of at least 1.7. I think Z could be at that level for 3 of 4 years, with the lighter workload saving him from the breakdown forecasted by his comparable players. Let's say Z as a reliever has a 2 WAR in 2010, 2 in 2011, 1.8 in 2012, and 1.5 in 2013, for a total of 7.3 WAR.

 

So, depending on how hard you think he'd fall off, there might not be too much of a difference in Z's contributions whether from the rotation or on the pen. Those are obviously just guesstimates, that could be different if he's not as good as a reliever, or his starter's workload causes him to miss significant time in the near future, or any number of things. And to reiterate what I mentioned earlier, I in no way think this was part of the kneejerk decision to move Z there. But maybe if he stays in the pen, it wouldn't be the worst decision in the world. The one thing we do know is if he does stay in the pen, we'll probably never know one way or the other.

 

A last point in this situation, is the pitchers around Z, and it's the real reason why this is a dumb decision first and foremost. To do something as rash as moving your opening day starter to the pen without giving guys like Stevens, Parker, or Gaub a shot to be a fix in the bullpen, or even to give your current pen more than FIFTEEN GAMES to work out a reasonable pecking order, is really really shortsighted. But it does mean Gorzelanny(who I think is a valuable piece) gets an extended audition as a starter, and it makes it a little easier to slot someone like Jackson or Cashner into the rotation in the near future.

 

Looooong story short, this is really dumb. Z has a lot of value as an effective durable starter, and he's come back from these episodes of ineffectiveness many times before. But if you think that Z is doomed to the fate of those comparables and won't be nearly as effective by the end of his contract(or worse), then maybe it's not the worst thing that he ends up in the pen.

 

Thanks for breaking it down for us TT. NSBB needs a lot more of these types of posts on the board.

[dew1679666265]

Excellent analysis TT.

 

I think this moves makes it that much more imperative that Gorz and Silva pitch well. I don't like moving Z to the pen, but it could be a reflection of Rothschild's confidence in Gorz and Silva's ability to pitch well the rest of the season. And I do trust Rothschild.

 

On a side note, could this move keep Z's arm healthier assuming he moves back to the rotation later this year or at the start of next year? It'll be a lighter workload for him that might prolong his health and effectiveness. Just a thought.

[RammyFanny]

any chance he's hurt. . . .not so much that he can't pitch, but to the point that he can't pitch 6+ innings?

It would have to do with the cramps he gets if you're right.

[Outshined_One]

On a side note, could this move keep Z's arm healthier assuming he moves back to the rotation later this year or at the start of next year? It'll be a lighter workload for him that might prolong his health and effectiveness. Just a thought.

 

It's hard to gauge that, though. Zambrano would be throwing fewer innings and pitches out of the bullpen. However, relievers are usually encouraged to throw harder and let loose compared to starters. My worry with Zambrano is that he'll let loose in relief and do something to screw up his mechanics or delivery, which could lead to a lot of problems when he returns to starting or, worse, injuries. I'm praying the Cubs keep a close eye on him and that he doesn't overdo it in relief.

[javy knows my name]

Hard and loose Z = wild Z. While I'm worried about his health if he's throwing harder, I'm even more skeptical about his effectiveness out of the pen. Z is gonna be cheered rowdily every time he gets out there and he's gonna be ramped up. This is a recipe for disaster regardless of the risk to his health.

[dew1679666265]

On a side note, could this move keep Z's arm healthier assuming he moves back to the rotation later this year or at the start of next year? It'll be a lighter workload for him that might prolong his health and effectiveness. Just a thought.

 

It's hard to gauge that, though. Zambrano would be throwing fewer innings and pitches out of the bullpen. However, relievers are usually encouraged to throw harder and let loose compared to starters. My worry with Zambrano is that he'll let loose in relief and do something to screw up his mechanics or delivery, which could lead to a lot of problems when he returns to starting or, worse, injuries. I'm praying the Cubs keep a close eye on him and that he doesn't overdo it in relief.

 

Yeah, it definitely couldn't be quantified, but my thinking was that the fewer innings could help Z stay healthier longer and slowing down the decline similar pitchers like Livan Hernandez hit. That's a good point on him potentially changing his mechanics, though.

[Geech]

That seems like a really optimistic assessment of his future as a reliever.

[Rob]

TT, this isn't really in response to you. It's just valuable information to have.

 

WAR sells Z extremely short... as he is a very unique pitcher. Take a look at Z's BABIP versus the league average since his first full season.

 

2002 - .286 / .297

2003 - .291 / .298

2004 - .284 / .301

2005 - .258 / .299

2006 - .265 / .305

2007 - .275 / .307

2008 - .277 / .304

2009 - .308 / .303

2010 - .435 / .295

 

Until last season and four starts this season, Zambrano had shown some ability to consistently give up fewer hits than the average pitcher. However, WAR is based on Fielding Independent Pitching, which normalizes that value under the assumption all pitchers are created equal in their ability to control hits. We all know that isn't true, and one needs look no further than Carlos Marmol for proof positive. So was last year (and four starts this year) the new trend, or was it a blip on the radar? I'm inclined to lean towards his track record unless I see some data supporting some big changes in his pitch speed or movement.

 

Then there's the matter of his defense. It's above average, and WAR doesn't factor that in.

 

He also helps control the running game, another thing WAR doesn't attempt to quantify.

 

Oh, and we really can't forget the bat. He was worth about five more runs than the average NL pitcher last year with his bat.

 

Taken all together, WAR probably undersells him by an entire win... maybe a couple runs more or less.

 

He may not be an ace pitcher any more... but we almost certainly just put our most valuable starter in the bullpen.

[questionmarkgrace]

this move amongst others they have made this year seems more symbolic than anything, like taking soriano out after he makes an error. Yes Z has been bad but not that bad and he often starts slow. but, maybe this is exactly what he needs to get his head straight and to focus. This is old school and I like it.

[artvandalay]

TT, this isn't really in response to you. It's just valuable information to have.

 

WAR sells Z extremely short... as he is a very unique pitcher. Take a look at Z's BABIP versus the league average since his first full season.

 

2002 - .286 / .297

2003 - .291 / .298

2004 - .284 / .301

2005 - .258 / .299

2006 - .265 / .305

2007 - .275 / .307

2008 - .277 / .304

2009 - .308 / .303

2010 - .435 / .295

Until last season and four starts this season, Zambrano had shown some ability to consistently give up fewer hits than the average pitcher. However, WAR is based on Fielding Independent Pitching, which normalizes that value under the assumption all pitchers are created equal in their ability to control hits. We all know that isn't true, and one needs look no further than Carlos Marmol for proof positive. So was last year (and four starts this year) the new trend, or was it a blip on the radar? I'm inclined to lean towards his track record unless I see some data supporting some big changes in his pitch speed or movement.

 

Then there's the matter of his defense. It's above average, and WAR doesn't factor that in.

 

He also helps control the running game, another thing WAR doesn't attempt to quantify.

 

Oh, and we really can't forget the bat. He was worth about five more runs than the average NL pitcher last year with his bat.

 

Taken all together, WAR probably undersells him by an entire win... maybe a couple runs more or less.

 

He may not be an ace pitcher any more... but we almost certainly just put our most valuable starter in the bullpen.

 

The bolded is simply wrong in several different ways.

 

The whole theory about pitchers not being able to control balls in play does not suggest that all pitchers will have exactly the same BaBIP, it suggests that they will all fall within a fairly tight range (which is a little bigger for relievers than starters, theoretically because relievers pitch fewer innings, more often have the platoon advantage, and since they pitch fewer innings they can generally "air it out" more than starters who have to be able to maintain their stuff for 100+ pitches). That range for starting pitchers is around 280-300 generally, and Z's career BaBIP is right at 282, so no, he doesn't have some special power to cause less balls in play to drop in for hits.

 

Also, as far as the whole "BaBIP isn't consistent" thing, I dare you to try and find me 5 non-knuckleball throwing (because it is also acknowledged that knuckleballers have a wider range of potential BaBIP than regular pitchers) starters from the modern era that pitched >1000 innings in their career with a BaBIP of <270. You won't, because they don't exist. Randy Johnson's career BaBIP is 302, Pedro Martinez' is 291, Greg Maddux's is 289, Johan Santana's is 287, Roger Clemens' is 294... and the list goes on and on. You're not going to find a whole lot more filthy pitchers in the last 20 years than the ones on that list, and they are all right smack in the middle of the widely accepted range of what a starting pitcher has control over.

[Keener98]

this move amongst others they have made this year seems more symbolic than anything, like taking soriano out after he makes an error. Yes Z has been bad but not that bad and he often starts slow. but, maybe this is exactly what he needs to get his head straight and to focus. This is old school and I like it.

 

Z has been bad 1 start this year. 1 thats it. Head straight?focus? Give me a break, this is nothing more than a panic desperation move by our ignorant [expletive] manger and horrible GM

[artvandalay]

On a side note, could this move keep Z's arm healthier assuming he moves back to the rotation later this year or at the start of next year? It'll be a lighter workload for him that might prolong his health and effectiveness. Just a thought.

 

It's hard to gauge that, though. Zambrano would be throwing fewer innings and pitches out of the bullpen. However, relievers are usually encouraged to throw harder and let loose compared to starters. My worry with Zambrano is that he'll let loose in relief and do something to screw up his mechanics or delivery, which could lead to a lot of problems when he returns to starting or, worse, injuries. I'm praying the Cubs keep a close eye on him and that he doesn't overdo it in relief.

 

Yeah, it definitely couldn't be quantified, but my thinking was that the fewer innings could help Z stay healthier longer and slowing down the decline similar pitchers like Livan Hernandez hit. That's a good point on him potentially changing his mechanics, though.

 

I'm not sure where you got that impression, because about the only similarities between Z and Livan Hernandez is that they are both rather large hispanic guys.

[soapy]

Couple of things: It's insane to do something like this without giving guys like Steven, Parker or Gaub a chance (as TT mentioned).

 

Secondly, there's more to consider than Z's chances of success and value out of the pen. Even if you assume Z might not be that much less valuable as a high-leverage reliever, it's still going to weaken the starting rotation if you are essentially substituting Gorzelanny or Silva (however you want to look at it) for Zambrano as a starter every fifth day. I'm a actually a big fan of Gorzelanny, but he's extremely unlikely to be as good as Zambrano as a starter. Silva's career numbers speak for themselves. It's great that he's been so good early on, but it's (to use this phrase one more time) extemely unlikely to continue anywhere close to that level. Looking at their careers, Silva can't even carry Zambrano's jock strap.

 

Is it possible this could work out? Yeah, I guess. But you aren't playing the percentages. It's far more likely to bomb.

[weis21]

Excellent post, TT.

 

My feelings are along the lines of many others. It's a dumb move, period. Gorzellany and Silva basically need to continue to be stellar like they've been so far, which is highly unlikely, for this reap any real benefits. And even then it's probably more of a lateral move than anything else. Regardless of this move, I still want to see Parker, Gaub, and/or Stevens replace some of the guys in the pen.

 

But, for some reason I have the feeling this could be one of those things that is just idiotic enough to work - if it's temporary. Maybe Silva and Gorz will continue to shine (or close enough) and maybe Z will excel in the pen and be the spark this team needs as a high-energy shutdown set-up guy. I know that it's probably irrational to be this optimistic, but I'm often irrational regarding the Cubs. When this move to the pen inevitably fails, I'm sure I'll laugh at this bold faced outlook.

 

I will say this, however. If this stops Hendry from doing something stupid like trading away Vitters or Jackson(s) or another A prospect for reliving help, then it may be worth it.

[CubColtPacer]

Let me start off with saying this is a definite downgrade to the rotation. The notion that Z is being demoted for being worse than everyone else is going to be a popular one among fans and it's simply not true.

 

However, I do not see this move as quite as horrible as many do. You have several factors in play here. How do you feel Gorzelanny/Silva are going to do? Do you think Zambrano will be better per inning as a reliever than he is as a starter? Is the new workload going to cause less injury to Z? If Gorzelanny/Silva were pushed to the pen, would they be better pitchers in the pen than in the rotation? How would Lou use them in the pen?

 

First, the issue of Gorzelanny and Silva's performance. Obviously they are not going to do like they have so far. Personally, I'm expecting somewhere around a 9 ERA from them combined at the end of the year (neither one higher than a 5 ERA). Is that great? No, but that's about two league average starters put together (and while I feel Gorzelanny is the better bet to be good, it really could be either one of them).

 

Will Z be better as a reliever than a starter? Again, I would say it's likely to be yes. He's a very good starter, but he could end up being an excellent reliever. This will help him add a couple miles to his fastball that he's lost over the years as a starter. His high strikeout rate will be huge for a bullpen that frequently needs a strikeout at a very certain time. And he'll also hopefully face less left-handers in the bullpen especially with Marshall/Grabow as the other setup men which will also boost his numbers.

 

Is the new workload going to cause less injury to Z? Uncertain. The biggest problem is the possible changing of mechanics. At the same time, Z's value as an innings eating workhorse is starting to erode both from injury that makes him miss starts and injuries that shorten starts. Plus, he isn't exactly the most efficient pitcher in the world (16-17 pitches per inning) so to get those high inning totals the Cubs would have to continue to put 110-120 pitch outings on his arm on a consistent basis. As TT pointed out, how much longer can that continue?

 

If Gorzelanny/Silva were pushed to the bullpen, would they be better in the pen than in the rotation? And how would Lou use them? Gorzelanny would likely be a little better in the pen than he is in the rotation. But he also would be behind both Marshall and Grabow down there. So Gorzelanny would be pushed to the swing role and those low leverage innings would be worth a lot less than Z's high leverage innings. And Silva is the exact type of pitcher who you do not want in the bullpen. His biggest strength is his efficiency which isn't that helpful in the bullpen. You don't want to put him in with runners on because he's so hittable. He also gives up a lot of home runs which is not an ideal bullpen candidate when protecting slim leads. He'd also get pushed to the swing role before long and there goes any value he might have provided.

 

There are other cons to this move. Z's bat is a big loss. Another is what the Cubs plan is if they have an injury in their starting rotation with nobody likely to be stretched out on the team (a long-term injury I would assume that Z would slowly get stretched out, but I don't know what they'll do if somebody's gone for 15-20 days). And the other is Z's long term future. Do you really plan to keep him there for years? Unless he's absolutely dominant down there, I don't see that. So have the Cubs planned the time for him to transition back to the rotation? Probably not.

 

This is a highly creative move. Unfortunately, to get the most value out of it the Cubs would have to continue to be creative. The way for this move to work out would be to keep building either Gorzelanny or Silva's trade value until the deadline and then flip them for something of value. By then, another reliever in the pen would have likely stepped up and the Cubs can transition Z back to starter and slide the other pitcher into the setup role. The second best move would be to do the exact same thing but wait until the offseason to trade one of those two pitchers. Then you could have Z take that spot and have one of the minor leaguers (Cashner/Jackson/Coleman) take Lilly's spot. They also have to make sure Z is used in high leverage situations.

 

But IMO this isn't a horrible move. It's certainly not playing it safe and it definitely could blow up in their faces. I don't think it was necessarily needed as a bullpen strengthening move (as the Cubs have options there). But it will strengthen the bullpen. Will it strengthen it as much as downgrading the rotation? Maybe. Will it hurt Z's value? Almost certainly. Will it upgrade others value? Yes. Will it help the Cubs in trade negotiations when they have to get rid of some of their starting pitching options to make room for the pitchers that are coming fast? Probably.

 

So if you are much more pessimistic about the combo of Gorzelanny/Silva, I can understand why you would think it is a horrible move. And it certainly flies in the face of normal thinking (which is why I can only remember the Phillies division winner of 07 doing this). I think it probably won't put a big dent in the Cubs season and this decision might help them out in future years in multiple ways.

[soapy]

Nice post, CCP.

 

I will say, Z needing to be stretched out again is the least of my concerns about this. It wouldn't be that big of a deal to call up another starter for one or two starts (or to piggy-back Zambrano) until he gets stretched out.

 

I'm just simply very pessimistic about Silva's likelyhood to be even remotely as effective as Zambrano long-term (moreso than Gorzelanny). If the move is being done simply to strengthen the bullpen (as it's being spun), then there are plenty of other options that don't require you to likely weaken your rotation significantly.

[scarey]

TT, this isn't really in response to you. It's just valuable information to have.

 

WAR sells Z extremely short... as he is a very unique pitcher. Take a look at Z's BABIP versus the league average since his first full season.

 

2002 - .286 / .297

2003 - .291 / .298

2004 - .284 / .301

2005 - .258 / .299

2006 - .265 / .305

2007 - .275 / .307

2008 - .277 / .304

2009 - .308 / .303

2010 - .435 / .295

Until last season and four starts this season, Zambrano had shown some ability to consistently give up fewer hits than the average pitcher. However, WAR is based on Fielding Independent Pitching, which normalizes that value under the assumption all pitchers are created equal in their ability to control hits. We all know that isn't true, and one needs look no further than Carlos Marmol for proof positive. So was last year (and four starts this year) the new trend, or was it a blip on the radar? I'm inclined to lean towards his track record unless I see some data supporting some big changes in his pitch speed or movement.

 

Then there's the matter of his defense. It's above average, and WAR doesn't factor that in.

 

He also helps control the running game, another thing WAR doesn't attempt to quantify.

 

Oh, and we really can't forget the bat. He was worth about five more runs than the average NL pitcher last year with his bat.

 

Taken all together, WAR probably undersells him by an entire win... maybe a couple runs more or less.

 

He may not be an ace pitcher any more... but we almost certainly just put our most valuable starter in the bullpen.

 

The bolded is simply wrong in several different ways.

 

The whole theory about pitchers not being able to control balls in play does not suggest that all pitchers will have exactly the same BaBIP, it suggests that they will all fall within a fairly tight range (which is a little bigger for relievers than starters, theoretically because relievers pitch fewer innings, more often have the platoon advantage, and since they pitch fewer innings they can generally "air it out" more than starters who have to be able to maintain their stuff for 100+ pitches). That range for starting pitchers is around 280-300 generally, and Z's career BaBIP is right at 282, so no, he doesn't have some special power to cause less balls in play to drop in for hits.

 

Also, as far as the whole "BaBIP isn't consistent" thing, I dare you to try and find me 5 non-knuckleball throwing (because it is also acknowledged that knuckleballers have a wider range of potential BaBIP than regular pitchers) starters from the modern era that pitched >1000 innings in their career with a BaBIP of <270. You won't, because they don't exist. Randy Johnson's career BaBIP is 302, Pedro Martinez' is 291, Greg Maddux's is 289, Johan Santana's is 287, Roger Clemens' is 294... and the list goes on and on. You're not going to find a whole lot more filthy pitchers in the last 20 years than the ones on that list, and they are all right smack in the middle of the widely accepted range of what a starting pitcher has control over.

 

 

Really? So you think a .282 BABiP isn't significant enough to be an outlier? And you don't think a pitcher that has a better LD% and GB/FB ratio than league average isn't capable of inducing a lesser BABiP?

 

It's not a special power, it's common knowledge that if a pitcher can induce less line drives and more ground balls than average, than there's a good chance that his BABiP will be lower than average.

[Exile on Waveland]

I hinted at this in the initial thread (without any analysis whatsoever, thanks TT). The brightside is that the move could possibly save some wear and tear on Zambrano's arm. In and of itself, that could be a blessing in disguise.

 

I think this likely improves the bullpen, but it does so by weakening the rotation. I like Gorzelanny, but he and Silva are almost certain to be worse than Zambrano as starters. I think Silva, especially, is going to have a serious fall from grace. Moving a starter to the bullpen isn't per se stupid, but moving one of your best, if not your best, to the bullpen isn't smart.

 

I think, more than anything, the management could be saved by the offense heating up. If the offense heats up the bullpen won't be as big of an issue, and will therefore blow fewer games. At that point, assuming Zambrano has pitched well, this move will likely take a lot of credit (not that it should, but people are myopic).

[Eephus Speed]

Really? So you think a .282 BABiP isn't significant enough to be an outlier? And you don't think a pitcher that has a better LD% and GB/FB ratio than league average isn't capable of inducing a lesser BABiP?

 

It's not a special power, it's common knowledge that if a pitcher can induce less line drives and more ground balls than average, than there's a good chance that his BABiP will be lower than average.

 

It's my understanding that ground ball pitchers tend to have a higher BABIP than fly ball pitchers. I'm not positive that's true, and the difference may not be substantial. But that's my understanding. I looked up the BABIPs of a handful of veteran SP. According to B-R, Zito's career BABIP is .270, Santana's is .278 and Lilly's is .277. 3 fly ball pitchers. Lowe and Webb, 2 ground ball pitchers, are both in the .290s.

[ChiCubsFan]

Yahoo Sports cited this thread in one of their recent posts.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Closing-Time-Rant-Upon-further-review-Big-Z-mo?urn=fantasy,235827

[samhainn77]

any chance he's hurt. . . .not so much that he can't pitch, but to the point that he can't pitch 6+ innings?

 

 

I'm wondering the same thing. This feels similar to the Harden situation. Limit the innings, get what you can out of him. Extremely stupid if he is hurt.