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Eephus Speed

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Everything posted by Eephus Speed

  1. Eephus Speed
    Nolasco had -- by far -- the lowest FIP-ERA amongst starting pitchers in 2009. He was incredibly unlucky. Nolasco's no ace, but he's certainly above average. His biggest problem is that he's a fly ball pitcher (without a Pedro-esque K rate), so he's going to give up a lot of HR.
  2. Eephus Speed
    I don't dislike Pierre. He seems likeable, in fact. I dislike that there are a lot of people who don't know how to properly evaluate talent.
  3. Eephus Speed
    Even crazier is how some people misspell John. J-u-a-n. Ha ha ha. And don't get me started on the pronunciation. Stupid non-US American douchebags. http://drew3000.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/the-world-according-to-americans.jpg
  4. Eephus Speed
    I re-read daske's post, and you're probably right. Philly, Florida, San Francisco and Colorado have comparable tandems.
  5. Eephus Speed
    I don't know how Aaron Miles continues to get work. All I can figure is that he's blackmailing some folks. That and quite a few people in MLB still don't understand how to properly evaluate players. The fluke of '08 aside, Miles isn't even at replacement level. As good as Carpenter and Wainwright are, I'd definitely prefer Lincecum and Halladay. LaRussa seems to be infatuated with Miles, so I wouldn't be so sure that Miles won't make it out of the minors.
  6. Eephus Speed
    FWIW, the MLB average BB% is around 9 and the MLB average K% is around 17 or 18. Isn't that 70/125 over 500 AB's? I'd be positively euphoric if he could keep that up. or was that a green font thing? No green font thing intended. What ratio of BB/K is considered acceptable? Obviously more BBs than Ks is what every player would like to have but I always assumed a ratio around 50/50 is acceptable. There are very few players in baseball (maybe five in any given year) that both walk at an acceptable rate and also have more walks than K's. Last season, there were about a dozen who qualify, but it seems that's more than normal. There are only a handful of players who consistently have an above average BB rate and have more BB than K. Pujols, Mauer, Chipper and Helton. N. Johnson is semi-qualified. Pedroia may become a member of that group.
  7. Eephus Speed
    It's time to start a new thread titled, "The end of Halladay."
  8. Eephus Speed
    5/$125M for a 30-year-old, 4-win first baseman? That's a horrible contract. For that amount, Philly could have extended both Werth and Hamels.
  9. Eephus Speed
    I don't see anything idiotic about that take on the White Sox and their chances of contending in a weak AL Central. My point is that both Central divisions are weak and to say that the Cubs awful start is reality while the White Sox awful start is an illusion is idiotic. The WS have a strong starting rotation with a lineup that is close to being terrible. The Cubs have a very good rotation with a much stronger lineup (that is slumping). While the Cards are better than the Twins, I think the talent gap between the WS and Twins is greater than the gap between the Cards and Cubs. I disagree with your last statement, but I don't want to go there. Regarding the blurb about the White Sox, it pretty much said the same thing you're saying. That their offense sucks, though probably not quite as bad as it may currently appear. And that they have a very talented rotation that is currently underachieving in a big way.
  10. Eephus Speed
    I don't see anything idiotic about that take on the White Sox and their chances of contending in a weak AL Central.
  11. Eephus Speed
    It's my understanding that ground ball pitchers tend to have a higher BABIP than fly ball pitchers. I'm not positive that's true, and the difference may not be substantial. But that's my understanding. I looked up the BABIPs of a handful of veteran SP. According to B-R, Zito's career BABIP is .270, Santana's is .278 and Lilly's is .277. 3 fly ball pitchers. Lowe and Webb, 2 ground ball pitchers, are both in the .290s.
  12. Eephus Speed
    Because UZR is unreliable and that's where all his value was tied up in last year In what way is UZR unreliable? I don't contend that it, or any other stat for that matter, is flawless. But I'mcurious as to exactly why you say it is "unreliable." Theriot was worth 7.7 fielding RAA last season. Even if we knock that down to 0, he was worth 2 wins. If we bump it down to -5, he was worth 1.5 wins. From a guy who made a total of $900,000 over the last *2* seasons. Seems odd that he's the recipient of so much hate, but maybe it's a personality issue. I don't know much about the guy.
  13. Eephus Speed
    Why all the Theriot hate? He's been worth 3 wins each of the last 2 seasons, while being paid next to nothing.
  14. Eephus Speed
    I'm just poking fun at the pixie dust nonsense. Because it's precisely that, nonsense. And I didn't just show up. I've been reading and posting here since before the season began. Also, FWIW, I've been complimentary about quite a few of the players on the Cubs. I'm not here to bash the Cubs or even to promote the Cardinals (though I make no bones about being a Cardinals fan). Most of my posts on this board deal with baseball in general. The "Dave Duncan turns crap into gold" stuff is way overblown. There have been many failures, as is the case with every team, but Duncan has helped some pitchers (veterans mostly) improve their game. Sometimes a change in repertoire works, and sometimes it doesn't. Joel Pineiro, for instance, eventually learned just how effective a sinker can be, but it didn't happen immediately...and his success has carried over into this season (27 ground balls vs. 13 fly balls) with another club.
  15. Eephus Speed
    McGwire was a 4.5-win player in 2000. He was worth less than half a win in 2001, and then he retired.
  16. Eephus Speed
    Yep, best record in the NL since 2000 and it's all due to PEDs and teh luck!!1!
  17. Eephus Speed
    Maybe it's time to accept that only played 7% of the season has been played. Maybe we will end up being a middle of the pack team in a bad division, but I'd prefer to play 35-40 games before making any kind of statements about the wasted season. We're closer to 1st place than the Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, White Sox, and Red Sox at this point in the season and many of those teams were picked to win their divisions. The Blue Jays and Pirates are above .500, while the Red Sox have lost 2/3rds of their games. Yeah, it's *very* early.
  18. Eephus Speed
    The Cardinals are always lucky. Pixie dust 4eva!!!1! It's great getting a 107-pitch complete game the day after having to play 20 innings. Wainwright kicks so much ass.
  19. Eephus Speed
    Both Davis and Wolf have been a little better than league average over their careers. Since 4/5ths of Milwaukee's 2009 rotation was well below average, they have upgraded fairly significantly. Over the long haul, that should become apparent. But I still don't see them winning more than about 80 games.
  20. Eephus Speed
    Practically speaking, Houston's season was over before it began. In the sense that they had no shot at making the postseason. That, of course, was true for at least 1/3rd of MLB teams coming into this season. Most, though, don't have a payroll of $90+ million like the Astros do. why is mitchell boggs still on the cards' roster? he's terrible. Boggs's control sucks, but he's not useless. At the very least, he can fill the mopup role (the Brad Thompson role). LaRussa will eventually stop using Boggs in close contests.
  21. Eephus Speed
    Wandy will start pitching better, assuming he's healthy. And Berkman will come off the DL. But it seems the Astros might be even worse than expected. I figured ~75 wins and 5th place, but I'm not sure they're capable of winning enough to avoid finishing in last place. In spite of having a pretty high payroll.
  22. Eephus Speed
    10 seems about right to me. I expect Ryan to be worth a little less than projected, and Rasmus to be worth a little more. The projections for Ludwick and Freese are reasonable. Of course, all I really want from Freese, Lopez and Co. is more production than we got from Thurston and Co. in 2009...and that's not asking for much. FWIW, I do think the projection for Werth should be higher (the playing time projection, based on his history, is rather low).
  23. Eephus Speed
    Bear in mind that Ibanez and Happ are both expected to regress quite a bit. CHONE's preseason WAR projections for each team's starting 8 were as follows: Molina: 3.5, Ruiz: 2.4 Pujols: 7.2, Howard: 4.4 Schumaker: 1.6, Utley: 6.1 Freese: 1.8, Polanco: 3.0 Ryan: 2.7, Rollins: 3.8 (but he's headed to the DL) Holliday: 4.9, Ibanez: 2.0 Rasmus: 3.4, Victorino: 2.9 Ludwick: 2.0, Werth: 3.2 Total: 27.1 for STL, 27.8 for PHI CHONE didn't do WAR projections for pitchers. With regression expected from Happ and Blanton out for a bit, I like our rotation just a bit more...even though Halladay is better than anyone on our staff. Bullpens and benches are pretty tough to project.
  24. Eephus Speed
    Well, I'd argue that the Cardinals are. I rank the Phillies #1 and the Cardinals a fairly close #2...and I think there's a pretty big drop-off after that. But that's a different discussion. What I was saying is that the Cardinals have about as good of a chance of winning the NL Central as the Phillies have of winning the NL East. I don't think any of the other 4 divisions have a clear favorite (of course, 2nd place in the AL East will still get you into the postseason).
  25. Eephus Speed
    With Blanton (and now Rollins) out, and the Braves being stronger than the Cubs/Reds/Brewers, I think it's fair to say the Phillies are - at the very least - no more of a favorite to win the NL East than the Cardinals are to win the NL Central. And then there's the wild (NL) West, where every team but San Diego has a chance. I don't think there's a clear favorite in any of the AL divisions.
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