Projecting who starts off where in 2010-Hitters

[davell]

I think I remember seeing a few guys make some predictions, but can't seem to find them, so I figured I'd start a thread dedicated solely to this. Here are mu guesses......

 

Iowa

 

C Clevenger Robinson

1B ??????Hoffpauir/Millar

2B Thomas Camp

SS Barney

3B M Smith

LF Wright

CF Adduci

RF Snyder

 

Tennessee

 

C Chirinos

1B R White

2B Flaherty

SS Castro

3B Vitters

LF Guyer

CF Campana

RF Spencer

 

Daytona

 

C Brenly

1B Ridling

2B M Gonzalez

SS Lake(only because I see no other option)

3B Lemahieu(which is why I see Vitters in Tenn)

LF N Perez

CF B Jackson

RF Burke

 

Peoria

 

C Jones May

1B Baur

2B Watkins

SS Lee

3B Wagner

LF B Davis

CF Valdez

RF Morelli

 

I'm sure we will have some AAAA fodder and other minor league FA's to deal with, but I think this could be at least fairly close to what we see anyway......

[Cubswin11]

Depending on how the Cubs feel about him in ST, I could see Castro in AAA if they feel he has a chance to be up in 2010. Is AAA all that much more competitive or "harder" than AA? I could also see them maybe being aggressive with Burke and starting him in Tenn or Iowa. Overall though everything looks about in line.

[Outshined_One]

Peoria and Daytona have the DH, so that should give some roster flexibility in putting these together. I can see Lake repeating Peoria for that reason.

[Ryno12]

Depending on how the Cubs feel about him in ST, I could see Castro in AAA if they feel he has a chance to be up in 2010. Is AAA all that much more competitive or "harder" than AA? I could also see them maybe being aggressive with Burke and starting him in Tenn or Iowa. Overall though everything looks about in line.

 

I don't see this happening simply due to having Barney at Iowa. I think the Cubs see some value in him and are unlikely to sit him when they can just keep Castro at AA and bring him up from there if needed. As far as AAA being harder than AA, I'm sure the pitchers are more polished at the very least. However, the Cubs have called prospects up directly from AA before (Cedeno in 2005 comes to mind).

[fromthestretch]

I think I remember seeing a few guys make some predictions, but can't seem to find them, so I figured I'd start a thread dedicated solely to this. Here are mu guesses......

 

Iowa

 

C Clevenger Robinson

1B ??????Hoffpauir/Millar

2B Thomas Camp

SS Barney

3B M Smith

LF Wright

CF Adduci

RF Snyder

 

Tennessee

 

C Chirinos

1B R White

2B Flaherty

SS Castro

3B Vitters

LF Guyer

CF Campana

RF Spencer

 

Daytona

 

C Brenly

1B Ridling

2B M Gonzalez

SS Lake(only because I see no other option)

3B Lemahieu(which is why I see Vitters in Tenn)

LF N Perez

CF B Jackson

RF Burke

 

Peoria

 

C Jones May

1B Baur

2B Watkins

SS Lee

3B Wagner

LF B Davis

CF Valdez

RF Morelli

 

I'm sure we will have some AAAA fodder and other minor league FA's to deal with, but I think this could be at least fairly close to what we see anyway......

 

No Wellington Castillo?

[davell]

Oops, meant to have Castillo back at Tennessee. But, putting him at Iowa wouldn't surprise me either. My thinking was with Clevenger and Robinson both already there, he'd be better served with staying in Tennessee, just to get the most at bats possible for him.

[KaiserCesar]

Colvin and possibly Fuld will be in AAA, depending on what happens in the Millar/Tracy/Snyder/Fuld/Hoffpauir bench shakeout.

[craig]

Agree, Colvin at Iowa. Lou says he's added 25 pounds, and looks great.

 

This has been his first summer to build himself up. 06, after long draft spring/summer, went home and chilled out. 07, went to Japan and got hurt. 08, had surgery and rehabbed surgery. So this has been the first offseason when he's been healthy and focussed on baseball strength. Hopefully he'll add more power, although as a .524-slugger at AA last year, he's got a pretty good platform to build from.

 

I think Castro will go to Iowa. You don't hold back an elite prospect for the welfare of a darwin Barney. And since Barney isn't going to reach the majors as an every-day starting SS anyway, he'll be well served to take utility training, including time at 2nd and 3rd. Might make sense for Castro to play some 2nd, too.

 

Another Iowa 1B possible is the 4A slugger from Seattle, Bryan LaHair. He hit 26 HR and had an .883 OPS in AAA last year at age 26.

 

Vitters is a wildcard. I'd rather leave him in Daytona until he proves he's too good for the league. (Which was certainly not the case last year.)

 

And I'd like to see them leave Lemahieu at 2B for a while. He's got a chance to defend fine at 2B, and to be a very strong bat for a 2B. At 3B, not so clear that he'll have the power or bat that you'd want for a regular.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Is it for certain that Lemahieu will not see any time at SS? I thought the organization was going to continue to give him a look there.

[KaiserCesar]

Agree, Colvin at Iowa. Lou says he's added 25 pounds, and looks great.

 

This has been his first summer to build himself up. 06, after long draft spring/summer, went home and chilled out. 07, went to Japan and got hurt. 08, had surgery and rehabbed surgery. So this has been the first offseason when he's been healthy and focussed on baseball strength. Hopefully he'll add more power, although as a .524-slugger at AA last year, he's got a pretty good platform to build from.

 

I think Castro will go to Iowa. You don't hold back an elite prospect for the welfare of a darwin Barney. And since Barney isn't going to reach the majors as an every-day starting SS anyway, he'll be well served to take utility training, including time at 2nd and 3rd. Might make sense for Castro to play some 2nd, too.

 

Another Iowa 1B possible is the 4A slugger from Seattle, Bryan LaHair. He hit 26 HR and had an .883 OPS in AAA last year at age 26.

 

Vitters is a wildcard. I'd rather leave him in Daytona until he proves he's too good for the league. (Which was certainly not the case last year.)

 

And I'd like to see them leave Lemahieu at 2B for a while. He's got a chance to defend fine at 2B, and to be a very strong bat for a 2B. At 3B, not so clear that he'll have the power or bat that you'd want for a regular.

 

I wouldn't consider putting Castro in a league where he had only little over 100 at bats 'holding him back.' If he starts smashing the ball, then of course you can re-evaluate but I'd start him in AA. He's also got to work out his defense at SS, so I wouldn't get too crazy with moving him around the infield just yet. Barney could end up being close to starting caliber at SS, or maybe just a good utility guy if developed, so there's definitely some good reason to play him at age 24 in AAA.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, I don't quite get how putting Castro in AA would be holding him back. It's not like AAA is a prerequisite for playing in the majors. Considering the first month of it is often played in horrendous weather, that may be even more reason to have him start in AA.

[craig]

jersey and kaiser, your points are well taken. If it's reasoned that AA is best for Castro, then return Castro to AA absolutely. (Whether that be because you prefer the weather; or think he needs to work on things there; or think that going straight from AA to majors is better than using time at Iowa, etc..)

 

My "holding back" point had the following Ryno quote in mind, in which his assignment of Castro to AA was "simply due to having Barney at Iowa":

 

I don't see this happening simply due to having Barney at Iowa. I think the Cubs see some value in him and are unlikely to sit him when they can just keep Castro at AA and bring him up from there if needed....

 

My view is that you shouldn't make decisions about a top prospect based on the interests of a lesser prospect. Castro is by far the better prospect, Barney by far the lesser. So send Castro where it's best for Castro, and then deal with what that means for Barney. If you think it's best to hold Castro back at AA, because he needs more practice there, or the pitching is easier, or the weather better, by all means repeat him at AA. Personally I'd prefer that they did so until/unless he was relatively dominant there.

 

If the decision is that Iowa is better for him, then don't hold him back on account of Barney.

 

I think the same for Vitters. I have many doubts about him, but I still view him as a higher prospect than any of the other non-Castro infielders. If the Cubs think AA is the best place for him, then send him there. But assuming that Daytona is more appropriate (as I think is the case), don't rush Vitters up to AA on account of Lemahieu or Flaherty or Lake.

[Ryno12]

jersey and kaiser, your points are well taken. If it's reasoned that AA is best for Castro, then return Castro to AA absolutely. (Whether that be because you prefer the weather; or think he needs to work on things there; or think that going straight from AA to majors is better than using time at Iowa, etc..)

 

My "holding back" point had the following Ryno quote in mind, in which his assignment of Castro to AA was "simply due to having Barney at Iowa":

 

I don't see this happening simply due to having Barney at Iowa. I think the Cubs see some value in him and are unlikely to sit him when they can just keep Castro at AA and bring him up from there if needed....

 

My view is that you shouldn't make decisions about a top prospect based on the interests of a lesser prospect. Castro is by far the better prospect, Barney by far the lesser. So send Castro where it's best for Castro, and then deal with what that means for Barney. If you think it's best to hold Castro back at AA, because he needs more practice there, or the pitching is easier, or the weather better, by all means repeat him at AA. Personally I'd prefer that they did so until/unless he was relatively dominant there.

 

If the decision is that Iowa is better for him, then don't hold him back on account of Barney.

 

I think the same for Vitters. I have many doubts about him, but I still view him as a higher prospect than any of the other non-Castro infielders. If the Cubs think AA is the best place for him, then send him there. But assuming that Daytona is more appropriate (as I think is the case), don't rush Vitters up to AA on account of Lemahieu or Flaherty or Lake.

 

Your point about not making decisions about a top prospect because it is better for the interest of a lesser prospect is well taken. However, I'm don't necessarily think that Castro needs to spend time at AAA. I think he can continue to develop at AA, given that he only has around 100 abs there, and still has several things to work on (patience, eliminating errors, etc). Thus, as long as there is no real need to bring Castro up to Iowa, there is no reason they shouldn't just allow Barney to continue to develop. I don't see it as sacrificing Castro's develop in favor of Barney's. If anything, it may keep the Cubs from rushing Castro too fast.

[jersey cubs fan]

My view is that you shouldn't make decisions about a top prospect based on the interests of a lesser prospect.

 

The interests of the lesser prospect should not be the deciding factor, but there's nothing wrong with it accounting for part of the question. The fact that they have a SS for AAA could be just the thing to push your decision to keep him in AA if all else is equal. I am in favor of conservative promotions unless a guy owns a league for a considerable period, and that hasn't happened with Castro in AA yet. He's still young for that level and there's really no drawback to having him start in AA. The fact that they have a deserving guy at AAA just makes it easier to not fell pressure to put Castro there unnecessarily.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder who gets cut. I could see guys like Russ Canzler/Ty Wright perhaps get squeezed out depending on what happens with some roster spots in the bigs.

[Guest]

Canzler? Sure. Wright would be a surprise cut, even if Canzler has played more positions.

[craig]

Your point about not making decisions about a top prospect because it is better for the interest of a lesser prospect is well taken. However, I'm don't necessarily think that Castro needs to spend time at AAA. I think he can continue to develop at AA, given that he only has around 100 abs there, and still has several things to work on (patience, eliminating errors, etc). Thus, as long as there is no real need to bring Castro up to Iowa, there is no reason they shouldn't just allow Barney to continue to develop. I don't see it as sacrificing Castro's develop in favor of Barney's. If anything, it may keep the Cubs from rushing Castro too fast.

 

Personally, I agree with this. My preference is that Castro would return to AA. Nothing to do with Barney, just because I'd keep Castro at AA longer for some of the Castro-focused reasons that you and jersey have mentioned.

 

But I don't think the Cubs will do that. I think the cubs believe that he's special; that he might be ready soon if not already; that they want to challenge him; and that Iowa will be better for him than AA. Also, Lou doesn't control where minor leaguers go, but in one Castro-related conversation, he specifically stated that he expected him to start at Iowa. All kinds of things pop out of his mouth, so that might be wrong or generic for "minors" without caring where. But it might also reflect what he's heard from the organization, too.

 

..The interests of the lesser prospect should not be the deciding factor, but there's nothing wrong with it accounting for part of the question. The fact that they have a SS for AAA could be just the thing to push your decision to keep him in AA if all else is equal. I am in favor of conservative promotions unless a guy owns a league for a considerable period, and that hasn't happened with Castro in AA yet. He's still young for that level and there's really no drawback to having him start in AA. The fact that they have a deserving guy at AAA just makes it easier to not fell pressure to put Castro there unnecessarily.

 

Well said, and I agree. I think you are mostly arguing for why you think he'd be better at AA, and I'm persuaded. I'm just not confident the Cubs will agree. But I do agree, that if it's totally an on-the-fence decision, I have no problem having the Barney consideration tip the balance that way. (I need to mix more metaphors, I think...) But I really don't think the Barney factor should have much if any significance.

 

I still think the Cubs will put Castro at Iowa, as I mentioned above.

 

And while it might not be my first choice, I think there may be some merit to that. It is sometimes reasoned that some guys do go straight from AA, and that the talent in AAA isn't any better.

 

But I think there are more breaking balls in AAA than in AA, and for a lot of kids that's what they need to see more of. And for a lot of kids I think that helps to expose them as not so special. Patterson, Kelton, Hill, Choi, Pie were all kids who put up some good to extremely good numbers in AA, but were exposed by the breaking stuff in AAA.

[toonsterwu]

Canzler? Sure. Wright would be a surprise cut, even if Canzler has played more positions.

 

Only reason I bring up Wright is that he might not get regular time in AAA depending on what happens above. Colvin should nab on corner spot, and there's a lot of options for the other. Going down to AA to take time from someone might not be that appealing.

 

That said, agreed. He'd be a surprise cut if he was cut.

[NCCubFan]

Castro will begin the season with Iowa even if Blanco isn't ready by opening day.

[Guest]

Rex Barney? If you've been covering the Cubs for years, can't you at least learn the names of some key prospects?

[JeffH]

"Lem" would have been the appropriate incorrect first name to assign to Barney.

[NCCubFan]

At least he got the right sport with Rex.

 

I do remember Lem Barney. He was playing with the Lions (I believe he was a defensive back) when I first started following football.

[Clem Fandango]

Castro will begin the season with Iowa even if Blanco isn't ready by opening day.

 

Color me slightly shocked that they're not gonna start him in AA. I know he held his own there last year, but that was a rather small sampling. Either way I'm pleased he's shown enough poise that the team has faith in him to start the season at the highest level he can get to in the minors

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The encouraging thing about Castro is the high levels of contact. That portends him handling higher levels easier.

[KaiserCesar]

Castro will begin the season with Iowa even if Blanco isn't ready by opening day.

 

Color me slightly shocked that they're not gonna start him in AA. I know he held his own there last year, but that was a rather small sampling. Either way I'm pleased he's shown enough poise that the team has faith in him to start the season at the highest level he can get to in the minors

 

Yeah, I guess the success in the AFL has made them more comfortable bumping him up