Matt Holliday Signs with Cards (7yrs, $120 Million)

[NonProfitCow]

I would argue that they are overpaying because I think they are getting a player that can only put up $17 mil a year numbers in Colorado and will put up numbers more like he did in Oakland the next 7 years in St. Louis

 

His splits while in colorado show that Coors WAS THE REASON for most of those numbers

His last 4 years outside of Coors...

 

2009 - .909

2008 - .892

2007 - .860

2006 - .819

 

I'm seeing a trend.

[17 Seconds]

I would argue that they are overpaying because I think they are getting a player that can only put up $17 mil a year numbers in Colorado and will put up numbers more like he did in Oakland the next 7 years in St. Louis

 

His splits while in colorado show that Coors WAS THE REASON for most of those numbers

His last 4 years outside of Coors...

 

2009 - .909

2008 - .892

2007 - .860

2006 - .819

 

I'm seeing a trend.

 

yeah, madd dogg is just looking bitter. there's no doubt that holliday is a great player. he's not as good as his numbers while in colorado, but i think his overall 2009 numbers are pretty accurate

[Formerly Snayke]

I would argue that they are overpaying because I think they are getting a player that can only put up $17 mil a year numbers in Colorado and will put up numbers more like he did in Oakland the next 7 years in St. Louis

 

His splits while in colorado show that Coors WAS THE REASON for most of those numbers

His last 4 years outside of Coors...

 

2009 - .909

2008 - .892

2007 - .860

2006 - .819

 

I'm seeing a trend.

 

Yeah, but now that he's making a lot of money he won't care about baseball anymore. Then the Cardinals will release him, he'll bounce around the Indy Leagues, come back with a new focus and Bernie will write a column praising him for caring about baseball again.

[XZero771679666304]

it's not.

 

Not versus market value, no. But they were bidding against themselves, so paying market value really wasn't necessary. It helps the Cards, but this is a victory for Scott Boras.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Do you think he suddenly would have signed for 5/75 or something?

 

What was he going to do? Sign with an imaginary team? The 20+ mil stuff was a smokescreen. He wasn't worth that, and everyone knew it. The Cards had all the leverage and used little of it.

[XZero771679666304]

I would argue that they are overpaying because I think they are getting a player that can only put up $17 mil a year numbers in Colorado and will put up numbers more like he did in Oakland the next 7 years in St. Louis

 

His splits while in colorado show that Coors WAS THE REASON for most of those numbers

His last 4 years outside of Coors...

 

2009 - .909

2008 - .892

2007 - .860

2006 - .819

 

I'm seeing a trend.

 

yeah, madd dogg is just looking bitter. there's no doubt that holliday is a great player. he's not as good as his numbers while in colorado, but i think his overall 2009 numbers are pretty accurate

 

I don't think it's paying more than he's worth, or that he's not a great player. It's just that I think he could have been had for less because there was literally no other team bidding for his services.

[BigSlick]

Although this isn't the best contract for the Cardinals and Holliday isn't exactly the player he's heralded as, this still means the Cardinals are far and away the best team for like, the next 3 years minimum. (as long as they keep Pujols)

 

I might watch baseball from afar, our Cubs aren't doing much for a while.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I dont care about this contract at all other than the fact that the cardinals are going to end up committing half their payroll to 2 guys

 

This is the important thing. Even before Holliday, they were definitely a stars and scrubs team. Now they're committing a huge portion of their payroll to Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, and Lohse. Considering their farm system is horrible, there's a lot of room for things to go very wrong for them if they get bit by injuries or ineffectiveness to a star or two. It's not a bad contract for the Cardinals, but considering the composition of their team, they might have been better off spreading out the value they got for that 17 mil(especially since they didn't get a steal on Holliday).

 

Although this isn't the best contract for the Cardinals and Holliday isn't exactly the player he's heralded as, this still means the Cardinals are far and away the best team for like, the next 3 years minimum. (as long as they keep Pujols)

 

This is nowhere close to true.

[17 Seconds]

this still means the Cardinals are far and away the best team for like, the next 3 years minimum.

 

that's wayyyy too extreme. we have no idea what each team is going to end up looking like in 2010, let alone the next 2 years after that. the cardinals had everything go right for them last year.

[DanzaSlap]

Ultimately, I think this is a good move for the Cardinals. I think we will see them up the payroll in the coming years, likely up to about $115-120. This is pure speculation, but I think the reason DeWitt wanted to keep the payroll at $100mil was because he didn't want to spend wildly on players that weren't really worth it. And I think he wanted to keep the payroll where it was, knowing that Albert's going to get a fat contract soon, and I think the past couple years' payrolls have reflected that reality.

 

That said, as a Cardinal fan, I still think we need one more impact bat. Ludwick just isn't a solid enough bat in the 5 hole. I don't know where that impact bat is going to come from (and I really don't expect much more from this offseason), so I'm skeptical of proclaiming the Cardinals' dominance just yet. Just as last year, our entire season is going to come down to the health of our starting pitchers. (Also, Franklin wearing down last year should be a huge red flag. We need bullpen depth.)

[Ram23]

I don't think it will put the Cardinals in too much of a bind in the later years. Wainright and Holliday are signed until 2013 or beyond. Carpenter is signed through 2012. Pujols will get his contract and be there for the next 10 years. So then they have to suplement those core players with young guys. Rasmus is under control for a while, as is Shumacher, Ryan, and Molina. The only positions of question are RF and 3b. Ludwick is a FA after this year I believe so we will see what he gets in free agency and if the Cardinals want him back. For this year they will probably sign Tejada to a one year contract, but 3b going forward is the more pressing position that they need to figure out.

[17 Seconds]

I don't think it will put the Cardinals in too much of a bind in the later years. Wainright and Holliday are signed until 2013 or beyond. Carpenter is signed through 2012. Pujols will get his contract and be there for the next 10 years. So then they have to suplement those core players with young guys. Rasmus is under control for a while, as is Shumacher, Ryan, and Molina. The only positions of question are RF and 3b. Ludwick is a FA after this year I believe so we will see what he gets in free agency and if the Cardinals want him back. For this year they will probably sign Tejada to a one year contract, but 3b going forward is the more pressing position that they need to figure out.

 

schumaker and ryan suck

 

when pujols banks next offseason, the cardinals are going to have half of their payroll committed to 2 players every year. that's never good.

 

and what if carpenter goes down again? then you have about 55-60 million going to 2 guys when your payroll is usually around 90 million.

 

i'm not necessarily saying it's a bad move, but it definitely is going to make money really tight pretty much every season and basically takes you out of the running for any premiere free agent over the next several offseasons

[XZero771679666304]

I don't think it will put the Cardinals in too much of a bind in the later years. Wainright and Holliday are signed until 2013 or beyond. Carpenter is signed through 2012. Pujols will get his contract and be there for the next 10 years. So then they have to suplement those core players with young guys. Rasmus is under control for a while, as is Shumacher, Ryan, and Molina. The only positions of question are RF and 3b. Ludwick is a FA after this year I believe so we will see what he gets in free agency and if the Cardinals want him back. For this year they will probably sign Tejada to a one year contract, but 3b going forward is the more pressing position that they need to figure out.

 

schumaker and ryan suck

 

when pujols banks next offseason, the cardinals are going to have half of their payroll committed to 2 players every year. that's never good.

 

and what if carpenter goes down again? then you have about 55-60 million going to 2 guys when your payroll is usually around 90 million.

 

i'm not necessarily saying it's a bad move, but it definitely is going to make money really tight pretty much every season and basically takes you out of the running for any premiere free agent over the next several offseasons

 

I think a lot of Cards fans are under the impression Albert is going to give the team another discount because he is oh so in love with the STL. Albert gave the Cards a discount, gave them a title, and now he is going to get paid, be it by the Cards or by someone else.

 

And Carpenter is always potentially a start away from the end of his season, and outside of he and Waino, it gets unpredictable at best. The pen is a question, and the farm is in shambles.

 

The Cardinals are in good shape, but they're not frightening anyone long term because they cannot absorb many blows at all.

[NonProfitCow]

I think a lot of Cards fans are under the impression Albert is going to give the team another discount because he is oh so in love with the STL. Albert gave the Cards a discount, gave them a title, and now he is going to get paid, be it by the Cards or by someone else.

You seem awfully sure of that.

[DanzaSlap]

schumaker and ryan suck

 

False, especially regarding Brendan Ryan. Skip is pretty average, but Fangraph's had him valued at $5.4 last year, with a salary of $0.8. He's getting a raise this year in arbitration, but I'd expect his value to still be a bit more than what the Cards are paying him. Ryan, on the other hand, was worth $14.2, making just $0.4, making him an excellent value based mostly on his stellar defense.

[17 Seconds]

schumaker and ryan suck

 

False, especially regarding Brendan Ryan. Skip is pretty average, but Fangraph's had him valued at $5.4 last year, with a salary of $0.8. He's getting a raise this year in arbitration, but I'd expect his value to still be a bit more than what the Cards are paying him. Ryan, on the other hand, was worth $14.2, making just $0.4, making him an excellent value based mostly on his stellar defense.

 

hooray for more fangraphs figures. i don't believe that brendan ryan was worth 14 million dollars last season. also, that same formula had him as worthless before last season. so is he 2009 brendan ryan?

 

i just don't like how it's now commonplace to look at a fangraphs value figure and say "_____ was worth ______ dollars last season" like it's a fact

 

oh well, maybe saying they suck was a bit strong. my popint was just that i don't think you can look at brendan ryan and skip schumaker and say "well, we're tying up a ton of money elsewhere, but we're set at these positions for a while"

[DanzaSlap]

oh well, maybe saying they suck was a bit strong. my popint was just that i don't think you can look at brendan ryan and skip schumaker and say "well, we're tying up a ton of money elsewhere, but we're set at these positions for a while"

 

Fair enough. Their value is very Theriot-like, tied into how little the team has to pay them. They are passable players who make very little, and their value plummets as their salary rises. I'm not sure either is a long-term answer. (Although, in the interest of full disclosure, I've gone pretty gay for Brendan Ryan. I'm a sucker for a man with a mustache.)

[SouthSideRyan]

Seriously, I'd be ecstatic if I never saw a fangraphs $ figure again.

[Eric Clipperton]

schumaker and ryan suck

 

False, especially regarding Brendan Ryan. Skip is pretty average, but Fangraph's had him valued at $5.4 last year, with a salary of $0.8. He's getting a raise this year in arbitration, but I'd expect his value to still be a bit more than what the Cards are paying him. Ryan, on the other hand, was worth $14.2, making just $0.4, making him an excellent value based mostly on his stellar defense.

 

hooray for more fangraphs figures. i don't believe that brendan ryan was worth 14 million dollars last season. also, that same formula had him as worthless before last season. so is he 2009 brendan ryan?

 

i just don't like how it's now commonplace to look at a fangraphs value figure and say "_____ was worth ______ dollars last season" like it's a fact

 

oh well, maybe saying they suck was a bit strong. my popint was just that i don't think you can look at brendan ryan and skip schumaker and say "well, we're tying up a ton of money elsewhere, but we're set at these positions for a while"

 

The problem with Fangraphs value numbers is that they include so much variance (mainly due to UZR fluttering about wildly year to year), which should not be interpreted as the player's actual value in anything except hindsight. He probably benefitted from a lucky distribution in fielding this year, looking at his slightly above average numbers in 07 and 08 (each being about half as much playing time as 09). BABIP was a little high last year as well, so if you normalized his numbers to account for what appears to be positive luck in both fielding and hitting as measured by the underlying metrics on Fangraphs, Ryan would then be worth something more like $7MM as a slightly below average hitter and good fielder at SS, in terms of a hypothetical metric to measure this "true talent value".

 

Also you have to subtract $10MM in value because of his annoying swing and the horrible mustache he subjected any viewers of the playoffs to seeing. I loved watching his misery as the Cards got exactly the fate Ryan was asking for by growing the sort of mustache that cannot really be grown so much as it is earned. You didn't earn it, Brendan. A True Cardinal.

[Andy]

I'm ok with this because frankly it's going to take a miracle for the Cubs to compete with STL in 2010 anyway, and once we have our ducks in a row again that contract won't look so good for the Cardinals.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm ok with this because frankly it's going to take a miracle for the Cubs to compete with STL in 2010 anyway

 

What in God's name are you possibly basing this on?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm ok with this because frankly it's going to take a miracle for the Cubs to compete with STL in 2010 anyway, and once we have our ducks in a row again that contract won't look so good for the Cardinals.

 

Barring anything bizarrely unforeseen like the Cardinals trading Nick Stavinoha for Alex Gordon and Juan Cruz, smart money is that the Cubs are at least on par with the Cards, probably better.

[Andy]

I'm ok with this because frankly it's going to take a miracle for the Cubs to compete with STL in 2010 anyway

 

What in God's name are you possibly basing this on?

The Cubs were worse than the Cardinals in 2009 and have gotten worse at baseball this offseason and one of their best players will miss a month to open 2010. I didn't think that was such a controversial statement.

[Magnetic Curses]

Ultimately, I think this is a good move for the Cardinals. I think we will see them up the payroll in the coming years, likely up to about $115-120. This is pure speculation, but I think the reason DeWitt wanted to keep the payroll at $100mil was because he didn't want to spend wildly on players that weren't really worth it. And I think he wanted to keep the payroll where it was, knowing that Albert's going to get a fat contract soon, and I think the past couple years' payrolls have reflected that reality.

 

That said, as a Cardinal fan, I still think we need one more impact bat. Ludwick just isn't a solid enough bat in the 5 hole. I don't know where that impact bat is going to come from (and I really don't expect much more from this offseason), so I'm skeptical of proclaiming the Cardinals' dominance just yet. Just as last year, our entire season is going to come down to the health of our starting pitchers. (Also, Franklin wearing down last year should be a huge red flag. We need bullpen depth.)

 

the cardinals won't be making enough money to justify running the team in the red. forbes has their operating income at 6.6 million, which probably means they already took a little bath on the season. and it isn't likely to change much anytime soon, at least not enough to spawn a 30+ mil jump in payroll.

 

the cards are done in the transaction game for a while, unless they pull off some patented cardinal luck, i guess like they always do.

[BigSlick]

I'd love to see the Cubs be on par with the Cardinals in 2010 but I don't really see that with the rosters the way they are right now

 

Maybe a full year of Ramirez and Soriano bouncing back to doing something but I still feel like the offense has so many ways to fail, I could see Lee going back down to earth along with who knows whats going on in the middle infield. Soto is a question mark, bullpen is a question mark, some of the rotation is a question mark. There are a lot more sure things on the Cardinals, IMO. There are also a lot of sure holes on the Cardinals but they have a lot of players they can depend on.

 

I do believe that they'll have a ton of money tied up in 2012 and on and that bodes well for us, but I dunno we have to make some big changes to compete at the moment, IMO.

[Rob]

Seriously, I'd be ecstatic if I never saw a fangraphs $ figure again.

 

I don't see the problem, really. It's the same as posting WAR.

 

The only problem is from people who use it as a bizarre absolute and don't realize that every metric has a bit of wiggle room to it. I solved that problem a long time ago by always including "about" in my head in front of nearly every comprehensive metric I see posted on this board.