NFL week 10

[Careless]

I'm all for going for it in unconventional, yet smart, spots. However, I don't think you can basically hand Peyton Manning a touchdown there. Belichick decided to decide the game on that play - either his offense gets it and and the Pats win, or his offense doesn't get it and the Colts (almost certainly) win.

 

That deep in your own territory, you have to punt and hope your defensive playmakers can make a play.

I don't get it. You're not that much more likely to get a stop with the punt, and you're very likely to get the first down if you try it. They were averaging 9 yards a pass and 4 yards a rush. Even bad offensive teams convert 4th and 2 half the time.

[Andy]

I don't know if I would've gone for it but I also can't kill Belichick for the decision. Peyton still had 1 timeout plus 2 minutes to go probably 75 yards. I would've bet my firstborn on him doing that if he punted the ball.

[Rob]

Honestly, I'm not going to second guess the decision. It was a close enough call that it was at the very least debatable.

 

I sure as hell would have punted though.

[Careless]

Going is absolutely correct. 4th and 2 in the middle of the field has like a 60% conversion rate, probably higher for the Pats. You get that and the game is nearly over. You guys really think the difference between 30 yards and 70 yards for Manning in a 2 minute drill is 60%? Not a chance.

 

It wasn't

Putting Neifi in to pinch hit was clearly the right choice, he hit a home run! (yeah, you're a Brewers fan, but I'm sure you'll get it)

[ELCABALLO45]

Going is absolutely correct. 4th and 2 in the middle of the field has like a 60% conversion rate, probably higher for the Pats. You get that and the game is nearly over. You guys really think the difference between 30 yards and 70 yards for Manning in a 2 minute drill is 60%? Not a chance.

 

It wasn't

Putting Neifi in to pinch hit was clearly the right choice, he hit a home run! (yeah, you're a Brewers fan, but I'm sure you'll get it)

 

Im saying it wasn't the middle of the field. Indy took over at the 29 yard line. That was beyond dumb.

[ISUCubsFan]

Going is absolutely correct. 4th and 2 in the middle of the field has like a 60% conversion rate, probably higher for the Pats. You get that and the game is nearly over. You guys really think the difference between 30 yards and 70 yards for Manning in a 2 minute drill is 60%? Not a chance.

 

It wasn't

 

By middle of the field I meant away from the endzone so the defense has to account for plays of more than 10-20 yards.

[dew1679666265]

I'm all for going for it in unconventional, yet smart, spots. However, I don't think you can basically hand Peyton Manning a touchdown there. Belichick decided to decide the game on that play - either his offense gets it and and the Pats win, or his offense doesn't get it and the Colts (almost certainly) win.

 

That deep in your own territory, you have to punt and hope your defensive playmakers can make a play.

I don't get it. You're not that much more likely to get a stop with the punt, and you're very likely to get the first down if you try it. They were averaging 9 yards a pass and 4 yards a rush. Even bad offensive teams convert 4th and 2 half the time.

 

It was not a terrible decision. I understand the thinking and reasoning and certainly get wanting to have the game decided by your strongest unit (for the Pats, the offense).

 

You're giving the game away if you go for that and don't get it, though. I think you punt there and force a few more throws (and thus a few more chances for bad throws) by Peyton. Again, though, it wasn't a terrible call and I actually am impressed by Belichick to make that call.

[Careless]

Going is absolutely correct. 4th and 2 in the middle of the field has like a 60% conversion rate, probably higher for the Pats. You get that and the game is nearly over. You guys really think the difference between 30 yards and 70 yards for Manning in a 2 minute drill is 60%? Not a chance.

 

It wasn't

Putting Neifi in to pinch hit was clearly the right choice, he hit a home run! (yeah, you're a Brewers fan, but I'm sure you'll get it)

 

Im saying it wasn't the middle of the field. Indy took over at the 29 yard line. That was beyond dumb.

Compare the odds of Indy getting a 60 or 70 yard drive for a TD+their odds of a sizable punt return to the odds of New England getting 2 or more yards on a play.

edit: applies to Dew, too.

[Vanilla Ice]

I'll be interested to see what FO has to say about that decision.

[dew1679666265]

I was happy to see what the Titans did today. The game was much closer than the final score indicated thanks to a pair of pick-6s in the final 2:30 (it's so nice to have Vincent Fuller back), but the Titans had decent control of the game most of the way.

 

Another good game for Vince where he made mostly good decisions and a few nice throws (a deep out to Nate and a fly to, I believe, Britt in particular) has me feeling very good about his development. Chris Johnson is ridiculously good as well. I was silly to dislike that pick.

 

It seems silly, but I'm starting to wonder if 10-6 is possible at this point. Just 7 more straight wins . . .

[SpongeWorthy]

I think if they knew they were going for it all along they would've ran it twice from 3rd and 2. I actually like the call overall but the fact that they threw it twice instead of setting up a potential 4th and inches type situation by running on 3rd down leads me to believe that Belichick said F it and decided to go for it.

[TruffleShuffle]

Compare the odds of Indy getting a 60 or 70 yard drive for a TD+their odds of a sizable punt return to the odds of New England getting 2 or more yards on a play.

edit: applies to Dew, too.

 

exactly. it's basically the odds of (very good offense fails on 4th versus struggling defense AND very good offense scores touchdown against struggling defense on 30 yard drive) versus (very good offense scores on 70 yard drive against struggling defense). i suspect the odds probably favor the call that belichick made, despite the conventional wisdom.

[SpongeWorthy]

Here's an article from a couple years ago that Michael Lewis wrote about going for it on 4th down: http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3641375

 

I remember reading something similar awhile back that said Belichick actually read academic papers saying that coaches should go for it on 4th down more often and I've been waiting for him to do something pretty radical but I didn't expect it in that situation.

 

Edit: Here's the paper http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf

 

...I'm pretty sure the Christina Romer thanked in that article is now one of Obama's top economic advisers.

[rocket]

i hate belicheck, but i loved loved LOVED that call by him. it didn't work out, but if you're in a situation where tom brady getting you 2 yards will win you the game, you have to go for it. i applaud belicheck for going for it.

[CubColtPacer]

Here's an article from a couple years ago that Michael Lewis wrote about going for it on 4th down: http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3641375

 

I remember reading something similar awhile back that said Belichick actually read academic papers saying that coaches should go for it on 4th down more often and I've been waiting for him to do something pretty radical but I didn't expect it in that situation.

 

Just got back..that was an amazing atmosphere in the stadium tonight. I think everybody was stunned.

 

The Patriots have done that to the Colts before but never that late in the game. Belichick has always been willing to go for 4th down plays in his own territory against the Colts. But since the Patriots have always picked up the 1st down on those gambles, it hasn't received much coverage.

 

And I can tell you that the people in the stadium were much more scared of the 4th down play succeeding then the offense driving down the field. The Colts had been playing too much soft zone all night and the shortage in the secondary means the Patriots had mismatches all over the field. I absolutely believe they made the right percentage play there. Trying to stop Peyton when he has 4 downs to work with in the 2 minute drill would have been very difficult. The hardest part would be the red zone, and even if the Pats went for it the Colts still had to execute in the red zone. Also, if the Colts did get the ball, they would still have to worry about not scoring too quickly which could have hurt their effectiveness at getting in at all.

 

Those other 40 yards would likely have melted away very quickly as the Patriots were struggling at covering the whole field by the end of the game.

 

So I'm sad that Belichick has enough job security to play the odds correctly, and I'm very, very happy that it went against them this time. I'm also happy that Reggie convinced Peyton to change that last play from a fade (which wouldn't have worked) to the game-winning slant.

[TruffleShuffle]

i hate belicheck, but i loved loved LOVED that call by him. it didn't work out, but if you're in a situation where tom brady getting you 2 yards will win you the game, you have to go for it. i applaud belicheck for going for it.

 

if it were the bengals-steelers game, i would not have liked the call because both of the defenses were playing well and the offenses were not having great games. but both offenses went over 400 yards in offense and moved the ball pretty easily throughout the game. is anyone really confident that, playing with 2 minutes and 1 time out, the colts couldn't have driven the ball 70 yards on the pats to win that game? i sure as hell would rather take tom brady in 1 play to get 2 yards than put the ball back in the hands of a great qb against an average defense.

 

there is going to be massive criticism of this move, though, because it goes against conventional wisdom and probably 90% of former players, sportswriters and fans cannot think outside the box.

[ISUCubsFan]

So I'm sad that Belichick has enough job security to play the odds correctly

 

Great way to put it, since he's getting killed by the media right now. This reaction might have set smart 4th down decisions back a decade, since most coaches either don't know the numbers, or don't want to deal with the backlash.

 

Advanced NFL Stats analysis of the decision (scroll down a little): http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

[CubbieBum]

Anyone know of a place I can get the game from the final Patriots drive on. I recorded the game for my roommate and just realized it cut off right after the first quick Colts touchdown. He's only in the first quarter of watching it so I got time but I know of no place that you can watch a replay.

[CubInOK]

I thought the reward wasn't nearly worth the risk of that 4th down call. Giving Peyton Manning 30 yards to a win vs 70 or so yds to a win isn't worth it there. Converting the 4th down doesn't win you the game there. So why not punt?

[DivineBovine]

Going is absolutely correct. 4th and 2 in the middle of the field has like a 60% conversion rate, probably higher for the Pats. You get that and the game is nearly over. You guys really think the difference between 30 yards and 70 yards for Manning in a 2 minute drill is 60%? Not a chance.

 

It wasn't

Putting Neifi in to pinch hit was clearly the right choice, he hit a home run! (yeah, you're a Brewers fan, but I'm sure you'll get it)

 

Im saying it wasn't the middle of the field. Indy took over at the 29 yard line. That was beyond dumb.

 

 

But has anyone mentioned, that the officials blew the call?! It was a first down! If the officials make the right call, is everyone second guessing him, or calling him a genius?

 

Easy to second guess. It didn't work out, but it would have if the officials made the right call.

[NCCubFan]

It was NOT a first down. The receiver didn't have possession of the ball until he was back behind the first down marker.

[CubbieBum]

I thought the reward wasn't nearly worth the risk of that 4th down call. Giving Peyton Manning 30 yards to a win vs 70 or so yds to a win isn't worth it there. Converting the 4th down doesn't win you the game there. So why not punt?

 

uhh they would have won if they got the first down

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I thought the reward wasn't nearly worth the risk of that 4th down call. Giving Peyton Manning 30 yards to a win vs 70 or so yds to a win isn't worth it there. Converting the 4th down doesn't win you the game there. So why not punt?

 

Converting the 4th down absolutely wins the game. Like was said earlier, Odds of converting 4th down + odds of stopping Indy from 30 yards > odds of stopping Indy from 60-70 yards

[TruffleShuffle]

I thought the reward wasn't nearly worth the risk of that 4th down call. Giving Peyton Manning 30 yards to a win vs 70 or so yds to a win isn't worth it there. Converting the 4th down doesn't win you the game there. So why not punt?

 

if they get the first down they have 3 downs before a punt and 1:57 to go. the first play takes them down to, say, 1:52 and the colts call time out. the next two plays take them down to about :20-:25 and then they punt. the game wouldn't be over but assuming they get the ball off on the punt and put it toward the sidelines, the colts have to go something like 60-70 yards in 15 or 20 seconds. getting the first down there basically gives the colts next to no chance at winning the game.

[CubInOK]

I thought the reward wasn't nearly worth the risk of that 4th down call. Giving Peyton Manning 30 yards to a win vs 70 or so yds to a win isn't worth it there. Converting the 4th down doesn't win you the game there. So why not punt?

 

uhh they would have won if they got the first down

They could not have taken knees to win there.