Milton Bradley

BigSlick · May 22, 2009

i'm not gonna check his LD% or anything or actually put in any research

but when I watch at bats of Milton bradley I dont want to curl into a ball like Aaron Miles or even Fontenot

the guy clearly "gets" what is going on, but damn is he having some bad luck

He should have had hits in all 3 of his last at-bats tonight, and probably doubles on at least 2 of them.

Thats what I'm trying to say

17 Seconds · May 22, 2009

.830 OPS while playing half your games at dodger stadium is not meh. stop saying this, please.]

Are your outfield standards really this low? For a veteran outfielder who got 30 million and never stays on the field, hell yea an .830 OPS is meh, I don't care where you're playing. You don't pay that much money for production like that, especially when you're only getting it for like 100 games that season

there's not that much of a difference between a guy with a .280/.370/.460 line playing for the dodgers and a guy who puts up a .290/.350/.550

Uhh, this is exactly what I'm talking about the overblown park factors. A .900 OPS hitter turns into an .830 OPS hitter if he goes to LA? Come on. I'd believe that for Petco. For Dodger stadium that's a whole lot of hyperbole.

nobody is saying that he's more valuable than ramirez; aramis is more reliable in terms of health and plays a more important defensive position. hence the reason he's making more money.

I don't see what this has to do with anything. He said I was silly for using career averages and compared it to calling Ramirez an .845 OPS hitter. Like I said, that's a riduclous comparing. Ramirez has performed well above those average for 5 consecutive years. bradley has only 3 "seasons" in his entire career where he's better than his career numbers. He's done it 3 out of the last 5 years, and is now on his way to his 4th in the last 6. Just a littttleeeee bit different than Ramirez.

how often do people have to tell you this is wrong before you stop saying it? a .290 EqA does not blow; if that blows, then probably more than 80% of major league hitters blow

No you just need to keep it in context. Of course that doesn't "blow" but, when it's from a corner outfielder who is making 3/30 and only gives it to you for like 100 games in a season..... yeah, it does. He doesn't blow... the value does.

Eric Clipperton · May 22, 2009

.830 OPS while playing half your games at dodger stadium is not meh. stop saying this, please.]

Are your outfield standards really this low? For a veteran outfielder who got 30 million and never stays on the field, hell yea an .830 OPS is meh, I don't care where you're playing. You don't pay that much money for production like that, especially when you're only getting it for like 100 games that season

there's not that much of a difference between a guy with a .280/.370/.460 line playing for the dodgers and a guy who puts up a .290/.350/.550

Uhh, this is exactly what I'm talking about the overblown park factors. A .900 OPS hitter turns into an .830 OPS hitter if he goes to LA? Come on. I'd believe that for Petco. For Dodger stadium that's a whole lot of hyperbole.

nobody is saying that he's more valuable than ramirez; aramis is more reliable in terms of health and plays a more important defensive position. hence the reason he's making more money.

I don't see what this has to do with anything. He said I was silly for using career averages and compared it to calling Ramirez an .845 OPS hitter. Like I said, that's a riduclous comparing. Ramirez has performed well above those average for 5 consecutive years. bradley has only 3 "seasons" in his entire career where he's better than his career numbers. He's done it 3 out of the last 5 years, and is now on his way to his 4th in the last 6. Just a littttleeeee bit different than Ramirez.

how often do people have to tell you this is wrong before you stop saying it? a .290 EqA does not blow; if that blows, then probably more than 80% of major league hitters blow

No you just need to keep it in context. Of course that doesn't "blow" but, when it's from a corner outfielder who is making 3/30 and only gives it to you for like 100 games in a season..... yeah, it does. He doesn't blow... the value does.

Want to take a bet with me? I would like to bet with you that Bradley will be worth more than his contract over the next 3 years total, using the Fangraphs Value metric. If you have some other metric which counts "total player value", I would also consider this.

Note that Bradley is currently at -$0.5M so you have a bit of a head start since he's in the red so far. Thoughts?

Defense matters. And while Bradley is no Beltran or Gutierrez out there, he is still a decent enough defensive corner OF. Most of the players who post those .830 OPS figures or not, or if they are, cost a good deal more than 3/30. Basically I think if Bradley plays most of the 3 years, he'll be worth it easily. If he is hurt a lot, then he will be a bust, obviously.

I am up for various other Cub-related bets for projections if anyone is interested. Might be a fun way to distract from the losses at hand this week and put our money where our message board mouths are. Beers at Quenchers or other bars with sick beer lists are suitable as well. I would enjoy them in triumph or defeat of any Cub internet gambles.

One WAR-related player value note I was surprised to see:

Kosuke was worth more than we paid for him last year. Salary was $7M (not incl. pro-rated bonus i think, but still) and he was valued as a 1.8 win player worth $8.2M, entirely due to his glove in the outfield combined with slightly below average hitting (for all positions, obv more than slightly below avg for OF).

I see you do agree that using career averages for Ramirez is ridiculous. The rest of your paragraph on this topic brings up-

Seasons are arbitrary. Why do you treat seasons as important dividing lines by which to determine performance? Each PA is a "trial" of hitting. However many PAs comprise a season is just that, a historical fact...but one which serves NO predictive purpose. Arbitrary lines. If we split up the games in each player's career into different chunks, it would not change the projected OPS, even though the seasonal OPS's would be divided up differently and be different #s per season. Overall it's still the same. Say we want to project by looking at the last 2,000 PAs- Ramirez will use fewer seasons, but the amount of data is the same. Is this clear, and/or do you disagree with the premise? This follows similarly to your critique of the home/road splits given earlier- seasons can be skewed and divided up in a similar misleading way. It's just tougher to grasp since the season is already concrete as "the unit" of baseball and is what matters- one season, one WS champ. Any number of PAs up to a reasonable upper bound could technically comprise a "season".

Comments, complaints, questions? I'll be here all night.

LATENIGHT NSBB STAT GRIND - Live from Logan Square

gflore34 · May 22, 2009

If career statistics and regression to the mean stand for anything we're going to get two or more months of Bradley being scorching hot - let's hope people are getting on base ahead of him when that happens.

soapy · May 22, 2009

That's right he played in Texas. His first year with Texas: .243 batting average. 2nd year: .296

I doubt Mark puts up these numbers if we bring him back this year.

So DeRosa will adjust to hitting in a "new" league but Bradley won't? I don't really buy your logic on adjusting too much to begin with, but if you're going to run with it, at least apply it across the board.

dew1679666265 · May 22, 2009

i'm not gonna check his LD% or anything or actually put in any research

but when I watch at bats of Milton bradley I dont want to curl into a ball like Aaron Miles or even Fontenot

the guy clearly "gets" what is going on, but damn is he having some bad luck

He should have had hits in all 3 of his last at-bats tonight, and probably doubles on at least 2 of them.
Thats what I'm trying to say

Just to let you know, his BABIP so far this year is .194. His previous career low was .279 with the Indians in 2002. Last year it was .396.

His LD% is 13.8% so far this season. His previous career low was 15.4% in 2006 with the As. Last year it was 24.7%.

He's hitting a lot more ground balls this year (52.3%) than he normally does (career high of 51.6% in 2006) and fewer fly balls this year (33.8%) than he has since 2006 (33%). Last year he hit 41.1% ground balls and 34.2% fly balls.

Soul · May 22, 2009

i'm not gonna check his LD% or anything or actually put in any research

but when I watch at bats of Milton bradley I dont want to curl into a ball like Aaron Miles or even Fontenot

the guy clearly "gets" what is going on, but damn is he having some bad luck

He should have had hits in all 3 of his last at-bats tonight, and probably doubles on at least 2 of them.
Thats what I'm trying to say

I saw his ABs last night. Yeah, at this point it's just really frustrating to see this happen. It's pretty easy to see he has a good plan at the plate, at least on most ABs.

cubswin2009 · May 24, 2009

Another 0-3 night so far for our 30 million dollar piece of trash. Average down to an abysmal .176 and dropping.

Sammy Sofa · May 24, 2009

Please go back to Cubs.com.

XZero771679666304 · May 24, 2009

Why don't we keep the angry, reactionary posts in the game threads.

inari · May 24, 2009

Please go back to Cubs.com.

Seriously, this is getting old.

Cynosure · May 24, 2009

Please go back to Cubs.com.

Seriously, this is getting old.

cmon brah

cubswin2009 · May 24, 2009

God forbid I'm complaining about our big 30 million dollar pick-up hitting .180 on May 24th. :-))

A-Cal · May 24, 2009

you guys wouldn't be up for making these boards more like the dodger blue boards

those threads are hilarious!

cubswin2009 · May 25, 2009

Cubs' Milton Bradley feels targeted by umpires

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-25-cubs-brite-chicagomay25,0,157856.story

SAN DIEGO -- Is Milton Bradley paying the price for his April 16 run-in with umpire Larry Vanover?

Bradley believes his strike zone is being widened, forcing him to chase pitches he normally doesn't swing at or risk being called out on strikes.

Asked if there have been repercussions from Vanover's fellow umpires since the incident, Bradley didn't mince words.

"There always is," he replied. "No matter what, I'm the type of guy [where] I don't care what somebody does to a colleague of mine. I'm not going to treat him any differently. I do things straight up, because I'm a straight-up, honest individual.

How about you shut up and hit Milton. Jesus.

Tracer Bullet · May 25, 2009

Cubs' Milton Bradley feels targeted by umpires
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-25-cubs-brite-chicagomay25,0,157856.story
SAN DIEGO -- Is Milton Bradley paying the price for his April 16 run-in with umpire Larry Vanover?

Bradley believes his strike zone is being widened, forcing him to chase pitches he normally doesn't swing at or risk being called out on strikes.

Asked if there have been repercussions from Vanover's fellow umpires since the incident, Bradley didn't mince words.

"There always is," he replied. "No matter what, I'm the type of guy [where] I don't care what somebody does to a colleague of mine. I'm not going to treat him any differently. I do things straight up, because I'm a straight-up, honest individual.

How about you shut up and hit Milton. Jesus.

You're the target audience of Paul Sullivan. He has the story he wants to write, he just needs the quote from Milton, so he asks him some questions to get him going and then writes it knowing a guy like you is going to be pissed that Milton's worrying about umpires rather than just playing the game.

You're making Sullivan's job too easy.

Little Slide Rooter · May 25, 2009

Cubs' Milton Bradley feels targeted by umpires
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-25-cubs-brite-chicagomay25,0,157856.story
SAN DIEGO -- Is Milton Bradley paying the price for his April 16 run-in with umpire Larry Vanover?

Bradley believes his strike zone is being widened, forcing him to chase pitches he normally doesn't swing at or risk being called out on strikes.

Asked if there have been repercussions from Vanover's fellow umpires since the incident, Bradley didn't mince words.

"There always is," he replied. "No matter what, I'm the type of guy [where] I don't care what somebody does to a colleague of mine. I'm not going to treat him any differently. I do things straight up, because I'm a straight-up, honest individual.

How about you shut up and hit Milton. Jesus.

You're the target audience of Paul Sullivan. He has the story he wants to write, he just needs the quote from Milton, so he asks him some questions to get him going and then writes it knowing a guy like you is going to be pissed that Milton's worrying about umpires rather than just playing the game.

You're making Sullivan's job too easy.

Sounds like Milton is the one making Pauls job too easy.

Hairyducked Idiot · May 25, 2009

If career statistics and regression to the mean stand for anything we're going to get two or more months of Bradley being scorching hot - let's hope people are getting on base ahead of him when that happens.

That's not what those mean. That's just gambler's fallacy.

Hawk4Hall · May 25, 2009

I didn't mind the Bradley signing at first (I wanted Dunn first however), but his attitude is starting to get to me. Throw in the obvious struggles and the word bust comes into my mind.

He's got time to turn it around but he needs to shut his mouth and hit. I understand he's always been had a combustible personality, but he'd better tone it down.

CubbieBum · May 25, 2009

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4204044

Didn't see this posted yet if it is then lock it up.

Bradley says umps are calling everything strikes on him in retaliation to his altercation earlier this year. While I agree that there have been quite a few close calls that have gone against him he goes on to essentially blame the refs for everything this season.

"What am I supposed to do?" he said, according to the Tribune. "You lead the American League in OPS [in 2008], and two years in the top three in the league in on-base percentage. All of a sudden now, I come to Chicago and I can't see the ball no more? I don't know a strike from a ball?

"I don't think I'm doing anything wrong. There's a lot involved, and it's a lot of politics where there's nothing you can do about it."

That's the part that makes me cringe. The guy isn't taking no blame for his poor hitting or at least that's how it comes off to me. Sorry dude but you aren't seeing the ball and you sure as heck aren't hitting the ball. Maybe a pitch or two a came that could be called a ball is being called a strike but the reason you have sucked is all on you. I'm losing my patience with Bradley more and more and something like this just makes me think he will never do much because he refuses to see the wrong he is doing.

NCCubFan · May 25, 2009

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4204044

Didn't see this posted yet if it is then lock it up.

I'm merging this into the existing Milton Bradley thread, where his blaming the umpires is being discussed.

Clem Fandango · May 25, 2009

Blaming the umps will only make the situation worse if it already exists. I half believe him. He has to know that talking about it publically could worsen it, why would he take that risk if it weren't actually happening?

I don't doubt they're stretching his strike zone on occasion, but he still isn't hitting the ball well and needs to turn it around soon before the fans start giving him something new to be vocal about

Keener98 · May 25, 2009

Blaming the umps will only make the situation worse if it already exists. I half believe him. He has to know that talking about it publically could worsen it, why would he take that risk if it weren't actually happening?

I don't doubt they're stretching his strike zone on occasion, but he still isn't hitting the ball well and needs to turn it around soon before the fans start giving him something new to be vocal about

Dont worry because if he doesnt turn it around TONIGHT, the fans are going to give him and the rest of this team an absolute earful.

Illini Iceman · May 25, 2009

I didn't mind the Bradley signing at first (I wanted Dunn first however), but his attitude is starting to get to me. Throw in the obvious struggles and the word bust comes into my mind.

He's got time to turn it around but he needs to shut his mouth and hit. I understand he's always been had a combustible personality, but he'd better tone it down.

He tried to shut his mouth but Lou and the front office told him he had to start talking to the media again. Now he is forced to talk to the media and actually says what he thinks so people say he needs to shut his mouth and hit. As if he suddenly started spouting cliches (I am taking it one at bat at a time, etc) it would have some influence on him starting to produce.

SouthSideRyan · May 26, 2009

Blaming the umps will only make the situation worse if it already exists. I half believe him. He has to know that talking about it publically could worsen it, why would he take that risk if it weren't actually happening?

I don't doubt they're stretching his strike zone on occasion, but he still isn't hitting the ball well and needs to turn it around soon before the fans start giving him something new to be vocal about

Dont worry because if he doesnt turn it around TONIGHT, the fans are going to give him and the rest of this team an absolute earful.

CubsWin2009 is going to send him such an angry letter.

Milton Bradley

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