Car Jumping Joey Gathright a Cub?

[imb]

unless gathright can do that awesome baseball simulator 1.000 thing where the outfielders jump 50 feet in the air to rob a home run, i really have my doubts that his defense covers up a .600 ops

[Hosak8]

I'd rather have Gathright at whatever salary Abreu ends up making than have Abreu at whatever salary Gathright ends up making.

 

You cannot possibly mean this. No way.

 

I spelled out exactly how much I thought Abreu and Gathright were worth in another post in this thread. If you disagree with any of the particulars, feel free to state that and we can have a discussion. But I absolutely can mean that.

 

Okay. First of all, I'm perhaps the biggest skeptic of advanced metrics as anyone on this forum, and your metrics "proving" that Gathright is as good a player as Abreu only serves to strengthen that notion. However, that is neither here nor there in this discussion.

 

My point is that you made the comment (and for argument's sake, we'll assume Abreu gets a contract worth 15.5 million in 2009- below what I think he will actually get, ftr) that you would rather have Gathright for 15.5 million than Abreu for 800k. That's patently absurd, and there are no metrics that you can make up that support that stance.

 

Your turn.

 

You contend that my argument is obviously wrong by contending that my argument cannot be correct. I mean, I guess I can't really argue that - you'll just call all of my points made up, right? I don't have the lack of self-respect required to continue this line of conversation. If at some point you decide to actually, um, think, let me know.

 

Ahh, yes, condescension. How fitting.

 

I did not point out that your points were "incorrect" or "wrong". I made the statement that your argument was absurd. Major difference. If you can point out how it is not absurd, I would be glad to continue in this discussion. You posted metrics that prove Gathright to be an equal player to Abreu (again, metrics are no different that any other statistic- and almost anyone can make any statistic say whatever they want it to.) You even go so far as to say that you would rather have Gathright for millions of dollars than Abreu at hundreds of thousands. I call that absurd, and very clearly every baseball professional in the world agrees with that, or else Gathright would not have been non-tendered by the freakin' Royals, while Abreu sits back and waits to sign a multi-million dollar contract.

 

I'm asking you to explain why Gathright is worth Abreu's salary, and Abreu only worth Gathrights. That is all. If you are unable to do so, then so be it.

[Colin Wyers]

And I could care less whether you "like" defensive metrics or not. I don't like the fact that sandwiches don't appear in my hand whenever I snap my fingers. We all have our crosses to bear.

 

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more.

 

Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages?

 

You said you'd rather sign Gathright at Abreu's price than Abreu at Gathright's price.

 

i.e. Gathright @ 10M > Abreu @ 800K

 

Do we really think that Abreu signs a one-year deal?

[imb]

so...gathright at 3/30 is better than abreu at 3/2.4?

[BigbadB]

You will know the day when advanced metrics have gone too far when Joey Gathright is considered a better RF option than Abreu.

 

I have no stats to back this up, other than Gathright is really not a good player. In fact, I probably would have rather the Cubs brought back Josh Kroeger and given him the job over Gathright. And I still like Hoffpauir much more, also.

[SouthSideRyan]

And I could care less whether you "like" defensive metrics or not. I don't like the fact that sandwiches don't appear in my hand whenever I snap my fingers. We all have our crosses to bear.

 

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more.

 

Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages?

 

You said you'd rather sign Gathright at Abreu's price than Abreu at Gathright's price.

 

i.e. Gathright @ 10M > Abreu @ 800K

 

Do we really think that Abreu signs a one-year deal?

 

Fine you'd prefer Gathright at 3Y/30M to Abreu at 1Y/800K??

Edited December 16, 2008 by SouthSideRyan

[imb]

so...gathright at 3/30 is better than abreu at 3/2.4?

 

and i don't mean this to sound like any kind of attack or whatever, i like to read colin's stuff and i normally agree. i just can't wrap my head around anything but contempt for joey gathright

[BleacherBadger]

and...Foe button.

[Hosak8]

And I could care less whether you "like" defensive metrics or not. I don't like the fact that sandwiches don't appear in my hand whenever I snap my fingers. We all have our crosses to bear.

 

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more.

 

Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages?

 

Now you're twisting your argument because of the absurdity of it. You didn't say you'd rather pay Gathright $10 million than Abreu. You said you'd rather pay Gathright $10 million than Abreu $800k. BIG difference.

[Colin Wyers]

And I could care less whether you "like" defensive metrics or not. I don't like the fact that sandwiches don't appear in my hand whenever I snap my fingers. We all have our crosses to bear.

 

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more.

 

Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages?

 

You said you'd rather sign Gathright at Abreu's price than Abreu at Gathright's price.

 

i.e. Gathright @ 10M > Abreu @ 800K

 

Fine you'd prefer Gathright at 3Y/30M to Abreu at 1Y/800K??

 

Do we really think that Abreu signs a one-year deal?

 

...I should confess that I'm getting ready for work and sorta skimming this part of the thread. Sorry.

 

I think that Abreu, at his age, is perhaps a bit more... volatile commodity than Gathright, where I think that it's very possible you're stuck with a replacement-level player making $10 million. Is that difference worth $10 million? Maybe not. But the train of thought among a lot of posters is that they'd rather have Abreu on Abreu's deal than Gathright on Gathright's, and I contend that's much more ludicrous than what I've said.

[nilodnayr]

And I could care less whether you "like" defensive metrics or not. I don't like the fact that sandwiches don't appear in my hand whenever I snap my fingers. We all have our crosses to bear.

 

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more.

 

Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages?

 

Colin, I'm with you on the numbers, but I don't know where you're pulling your conclusion from.

 

You had Gathright at a 19.5 player, lets add 5 runs for baserunning, making him worth 24.5

 

You had Abreu at a 18.5 player and lets say his baserunning is neutral.

 

Gathright is making $800K

 

Lets say Abreu makes $12M

 

So you would rather pay $12M for 24.5 runs than $800K for 18.5 runs?

[Hosak8]

And I could care less whether you "like" defensive metrics or not. I don't like the fact that sandwiches don't appear in my hand whenever I snap my fingers. We all have our crosses to bear.

 

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more.

 

Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages?

 

Colin, I'm with you on the numbers, but I don't know where you're pulling your conclusion from.

 

You had Gathright at a 19.5 player, lets add 5 runs for baserunning, making him worth 24.5

 

You had Abreu at a 18.5 player and lets say his baserunning is neutral.

 

Gathright is making $800K

 

Lets say Abreu makes $12M

 

So you would rather pay $12M for 24.5 runs than $800K for 18.5 runs?

 

Ahhh.. THIS is the $800k question, and the one that he continues to avoid answering.

[Tyrant]

Um:

 

Let's break this down.

 

I split the difference between his Marcels and Bill James projected wOBA, and let's say he'll put up a .305 wOBA, so to convert out to runs in a season:

 

(.305-.338)/1.15 * 650 = -18

 

Or roughly a replacement-level hitter, maybe a little better. (All estimates of hitting are relative to league, not position - we add in a positional adjustment separately.) So now let's look at defense.

 

Eyeballing UZR/150, let’s say he’s +10 in CF. Then give him a positional bonus - I use +2.5 for playing CF. So to convert to runs above replacement, we add a replacement level bonus - +20 for the National League and +25 for the American League. Add it all together:

 

-18+10+2.5+25=19.5

 

Voila, a league-average player in the NL, a bit below in the American League.

 

So you eyeballed some metrics that have questionable and still-unproven methodology, threw in a few predictions of what you think might happen and, let's say, a few arbitrary bonuses and ...

 

Voila! Joey Gathright is better than Bobby Abreu, even at the same salary.

 

Stunning that anyone would question this post.

[haubrich91]

The ESPN article makes it sound like he'll be on the 25 man roster.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3773325

[nilodnayr]

Um:

 

Let's break this down.

 

I split the difference between his Marcels and Bill James projected wOBA, and let's say he'll put up a .305 wOBA, so to convert out to runs in a season:

 

(.305-.338)/1.15 * 650 = -18

 

Or roughly a replacement-level hitter, maybe a little better. (All estimates of hitting are relative to league, not position - we add in a positional adjustment separately.) So now let's look at defense.

 

Eyeballing UZR/150, let’s say he’s +10 in CF. Then give him a positional bonus - I use +2.5 for playing CF. So to convert to runs above replacement, we add a replacement level bonus - +20 for the National League and +25 for the American League. Add it all together:

 

-18+10+2.5+25=19.5

 

Voila, a league-average player in the NL, a bit below in the American League.

 

So you eyeballed some metrics that have questionable and still-unproven methodology, threw in a few predictions of what you think might happen and, let's say, a few arbitrary bonuses and ...

 

Voila! Joey Gathright is better than Bobby Abreu, even at the same salary.

 

Stunning that anyone would question this post.

 

Just because you don't understand what hes doing, it doesn't make it wrong.

[Tyrant]

 

Just because you don't understand what hes doing, it doesn't make it wrong.

 

Huh? I understood what he was doing. He threw a bunch of guesswork into his metrics and tried to pass it off as advanced methodology. You can't randomly assign values and weights to formulas and then run the formulas as fact.

[nilodnayr]

 

Just because you don't understand what hes doing, it doesn't make it wrong.

 

Huh? I understood what he was doing. He threw a bunch of guesswork into his metrics and tried to pass it off as advanced methodology. You can't randomly assign values and weights to formulas and then run the formulas as fact.

 

Except for it was neither guesswork, nor random.

[Tyrant]

 

Just because you don't understand what hes doing, it doesn't make it wrong.

 

Huh? I understood what he was doing. He threw a bunch of guesswork into his metrics and tried to pass it off as advanced methodology. You can't randomly assign values and weights to formulas and then run the formulas as fact.

 

Except for it was neither guesswork, nor random.

 

Whatever you want to think.

[Hosak8]

 

Just because you don't understand what hes doing, it doesn't make it wrong.

 

Huh? I understood what he was doing. He threw a bunch of guesswork into his metrics and tried to pass it off as advanced methodology. You can't randomly assign values and weights to formulas and then run the formulas as fact.

 

Except for it was neither guesswork, nor random.

 

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

[UK1679666180]

I think that Abreu, at his age, is perhaps a bit more... volatile commodity than Gathright, where I think that it's very possible you're stuck with a replacement-level player making $10 million. Is that difference worth $10 million? Maybe not. But the train of thought among a lot of posters is that they'd rather have Abreu on Abreu's deal than Gathright on Gathright's, and I contend that's much more ludicrous than what I've said.

 

I would agree that Gathright is a better bargain at 800K than what Abreu will likely command simply b/c Abreu has no range and like other OF options that struggle defensively to remain in the OF, unless he becomes a DH Abreu will be a severe defensive liability.

 

As bad as Abreu was defensively last year, how much was it a fluke? He'll be bad defensively regardless but will he be bad enough to where he's again one of the worst RF'ers in the past 5 years?

 

I think his offensive capabilities could outweigh his defensive liabilities to where he becomes league avg. in RF similar to '07.

 

It doesn't make sense as far as comparing Gathright and Abreu given age, salaries, expected roles, positions, etc.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

[Hosak8]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

 

Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes?

 

I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

[Tracer Bullet]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

 

Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes?

 

I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

 

when you've turned to a semantic argument about whether fairly-well regarded projections are guesswork or not, your argument has lost some steam.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

 

Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes?

 

I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

 

Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09?

[sethuel1]

If I ever run a baseball team i will only decide what to pay players after the season has completed and I can look at their final stats.