Car Jumping Joey Gathright a Cub?

[CubinNY]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

 

Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes?

 

I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

 

Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09?

One way to NOT do is to pass off wild-ass speculation as some sort of a "method".

 

Just take PECOTA or CHONE and be done with it. The value of their respective contracts makes little difference on the field.

 

However, I wouldn't want to pay Abreu $15 mill. at this point in his career and Gathright is a pinch/runner defensive replacement/25th man. I'm guessing Abreu is looking to start.

[Hosak8]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

 

Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes?

 

I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

 

when you've turned to a semantic argument about whether fairly-well regarded projections are guesswork or not, your argument has lost some steam.

 

So, now pointing out facts in an argument causes it to "lose steam"? There is no reasonable argument about that point. Projections (especially taking to different projections and averaging them out) ARE guesses. That is a FACT. You can call it semantics (and I realize to a degree that it is), but it is 100% factual. So, how has it "lost steam" again?

 

And, this does nothing to my original argument. It is just as strong now as it was when I first made it. It is absurd to desire Gathright at $10 million over Abreu at $800k. No one has refuted that argument yet.

Edited December 16, 2008 by Hosak8

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One way to NOT do is to pass off wild-ass speculation as some sort of a "method".

 

Just take PECOTA or CHONE and be done with it.

 

He took the middle ground between Bill James and Marcels, and rounded off his career UZR to a whole number. This isn't complicated or mincing numbers to try to prove a point, it's just simplifying.

[Hosak8]

Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

 

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

 

Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes?

 

I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

 

Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09?

 

I disagree with him saying that the OP did not use guesswork in his assessment of each player. I did not argue whether those projections (is that better?) were useful or not. You can turn this into something else if you wish, but my point is 100% true.

 

Now, onto your question. Of course I would choose some type of predictive metrics as part of my decision. However, unlike you Sabermetricians- who famously ignore any part of the game that cannot be quantified by some obscure methodology and formula- I would just consider other factors as well.

 

I'm not arguing Abreu over Gathright- look back over the thread- not ONE time have I made any such comment. I made the point that there are no metrics available anywhere that justify wanting Gathright at $10 million over Abreu at $800k. How are all of you missing that?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Now, onto your question. Of course I would choose some type of predictive metrics as part of my decision. However, unlike you Sabermetricians- who famously ignore any part of the game that cannot be quantified by some obscure methodology and formula- I would just consider other factors as well.

 

I'd appreciate it if you wouldn't make sweeping generalizations, especially those with such condescending negative connotations.

 

I'm not arguing Abreu over Gathright- look back over the thread- not ONE time have I made any such comment. I made the point that there are no metrics available anywhere that justify wanting Gathright at $10 million over Abreu at $800k. How are all of you missing that?

 

Because you've spent a lot of time trying to discredit the methodology and not that point. If you had made any point of your own countering what Colin said instead of going on about "guesses".

[TruffleShuffle]

Ibanez is plus 1 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly negative 1 LF'er.

 

Abreu is plus 1.5 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing neutral value or so on the bases. So a roughly 0 RF'er.

 

Dunn is plus 3 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 1 LF'er.

 

Bradley is plus on both offense and defense, but as TT said, you have to scale that down for playing time, which is anyones guess, so I'm not even going to provide #s (but even in limited playing time is probably better than all the above)

 

Gathright is negative 1 win on offense and positive 2 win on corner OF defense (1 win in CF) with I'm guessing positive 1 win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 2 corner OF, plus 1 CF.

 

All of the above #s are rough.

 

If hes used solely as a double switch pinch runner defensive replacement, then Lou can utilize his postivite attributes (speed on the bases and defense) without having to have him bat. As mentioned before, he takes over for Pie when Pie gets traded. Thats a good use of resources.

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF

 

No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright.

 

Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations.

Wait a minute here.

 

You just laid out for us a bunch of win stats that indicate Ibanez = -1, Abreu = 0, Dunn = 1, Bradley = unknown, Gathright = 2.

 

And then you followed that up with, "I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF."

 

So do you not believe your own win estimates?

 

The numbers you laid out don't really pass the smell test, and you seem to confirm they're bogus with the followup quote.

 

yeah, is this assuming that each player gets regular-starter playing time? if so, i refuse to believe that ibanez is only 2 wins better than gathright. what does "plus 1" win mean - win over the average player, or replacement-level player?

 

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

 

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900.

[TruffleShuffle]

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

 

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900.

 

10 runs = 1 win?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

 

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900.

 

10 runs = 1 win?

 

Yep.

[Hosak8]

I'm not arguing Abreu over Gathright- look back over the thread- not ONE time have I made any such comment. I made the point that there are no metrics available anywhere that justify wanting Gathright at $10 million over Abreu at $800k. How are all of you missing that?

 

Because you've spent a lot of time trying to discredit the methodology and not that point. If you had made any point of your own countering what Colin said instead of going on about "guesses".

 

What the heck are you talking about? Have you even read this thread? Clearly not. I have never once tried to discredit the methodology. I pointed out that it was a guess. How is that discrediting it? Projections, by nature, are guesses. Only a contrarian could argue otherwise. I even made the comment from the beginning that it was not as random as Tyrant argued.

 

It's funny that others have attacked the methodology, but because I've pointed out in the past how ridiculous some Sabermetrics can be, I get singled out. Seriously, another mod even pointed that the idiocy of any metric that equates Gathright to Abreu. But, it's me who gets singled out, and I never once pointed anything out about the metric, other than that it was an educated guess.

 

And, if you want my point, I will restate it for the 100th time. The opinion that Gathright at $10 million per year is a better option than Abreu at $800k per year is sheer lunacy, and there are no statistics anywhere in the world that justify this stance. None. I don'tneed predictive metrics to back up my point, either. In fact, if I just used the OP's numbers, I feel fairly certain those would support my stance far more than they support his.

Edited December 16, 2008 by Hosak8

[TruffleShuffle]

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

 

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900.

 

10 runs = 1 win?

 

Yep.

 

seems a little odd/arbitrary to me, but whatever.

 

BP has gathright at 84 EqR in 839 PAs the past 3 seasons

ibanez is at 311 EqR in 2042 PAs.

 

so if you assume that each guy gets 650 PAs in full playing time, at their current level of production, gathright would produce 65 runs while ibanez produces 99. so 34 runs difference. i guess my figure was a bit high but not off by much, and i don't see how gathright is 3.4 "wins" better than ibanez in the field.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Targeted? Really?

[Hosak8]

Targeted? Really?

 

Singled out. Is that better?

 

Oh, and way to refute the points. Another person incapable of addressing the point at hand. How fitting.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

 

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900.

 

10 runs = 1 win?

 

Yep.

 

seems a little odd/arbitrary to me, but whatever.

 

BP has gathright at 84 EqR in 839 PAs the past 3 seasons

ibanez is at 311 EqR in 2042 PAs.

 

so if you assume that each guy gets 650 PAs in full playing time, at their current level of production, gathright would produce 65 runs while ibanez produces 99. so 34 runs difference. i guess my figure was a bit high but not off by much, and i don't see how gathright is 3.4 "wins" better than ibanez in the field.

 

Using wOBA, Ibanez projects around .345 for next year(James says .346, Marcel .344). With .328 as league average, that puts him about 10 runs above average. UZR has him around -24 in LF in '07 and -11 in '08. Moving to RF and getting a year older isn't going to help that, but let's say he's -10 to be simple and he's net zero above average.

 

Gathright is a career +19 defender in LF, +13 in CF. We'll split the difference conservatively(since RF is between LF and CF, closer to LF, on the defensive spectrum) and say he's +15 in RF. To put him on par with Ibanez, he needs to be at worst -15 at the plate, which is a .302 wOBA. Marcel has him at .302(.264/.333/.329 slash line) and James .315(.281/.356/.321) next year. This is where I differ from Colin, since I think those projections are optimistic for Gathright, a career .293 wOBA guy who put up an awful .280 last year. I don't think he's quite on par with Ibanez or Abreu on that offense+defense basis, but it's not as far fetched as you might think from looking at them offensively.

 

That said, the extent that you agree with the logic depends on how down you are with UZR. If you think being able to put a number on runs saved is preposterous, then it's not going to carry much weight. If you think UZR has been the leader in defensive metrics to this point, then it should at least give reason for pause, even if you don't ultimately agree.

[TruffleShuffle]

either way, i'd put ibanez at about 4 wins above gathright offensively, and I don't see how gathright makes up for that in defense.

 

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900.

 

10 runs = 1 win?

 

Yep.

 

seems a little odd/arbitrary to me, but whatever.

 

BP has gathright at 84 EqR in 839 PAs the past 3 seasons

ibanez is at 311 EqR in 2042 PAs.

 

so if you assume that each guy gets 650 PAs in full playing time, at their current level of production, gathright would produce 65 runs while ibanez produces 99. so 34 runs difference. i guess my figure was a bit high but not off by much, and i don't see how gathright is 3.4 "wins" better than ibanez in the field.

 

Using wOBA, Ibanez projects around .345 for next year(James says .346, Marcel .344). With .328 as league average, that puts him about 10 runs above average. UZR has him around -24 in LF in '07 and -11 in '08. Moving to RF and getting a year older isn't going to help that, but let's say he's -10 to be simple and he's net zero above average.

 

Gathright is a career +19 defender in LF, +13 in CF. We'll split the difference conservatively(since RF is between LF and CF, closer to LF, on the defensive spectrum) and say he's +15 in RF. To put him on par with Ibanez, he needs to be at worst -15 at the plate, which is a .302 wOBA. Marcel has him at .302(.264/.333/.329 slash line) and James .315(.281/.356/.321) next year. This is where I differ from Colin, since I think those projections are optimistic for Gathright, a career .293 wOBA guy who put up an awful .280 last year. I don't think he's quite on par with Ibanez or Abreu on that offense+defense basis, but it's not as far fetched as you might think from looking at them offensively.

 

That said, the extent that you agree with the logic depends on how down you are with UZR. If you think being able to put a number on runs saved is preposterous, then it's not going to carry much weight. If you think UZR has been the leader in defensive metrics to this point, then it should at least give reason for pause, even if you don't ultimately agree.

 

i think the projections are too low for ibanez on offense and too high for gathright on offense. ibanez has shown zero decline the past three years and while i don't expect him to stay good forever, he certainly seems like a guy who stays in excellent shape and will age more gracefully, rather than tanking quickly. i also don't foresee gathright putting up an obp in the .340 to .350 range unless he's very lucky on balls in play. i don't necessarily think it's a bad signing, especially if he has improved his basestealing proficiency. by all accounts, he's a top-flight defender, and with our outfield, having a very good defensive sub is a good idea.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Targeted? Really?

 

Singled out. Is that better?

 

Oh, and way to refute the points. Another person incapable of addressing the point at hand. How fitting.

 

Either way, claiming to be singled out/targeted is rings awfully hollow considering the condescending responses you've dealt out in this thread("you Sabermetricians- who famously ignore any part of the game that cannot be quantified by some obscure methodology and formula"..."Another person incapable of addressing the point at hand. How fitting." among other incredulous rhetoricals making insinuations about the poster rather than the topic at hand), with none given by me in return. People arguing the other side of your posts doesn't mean you're being singled out, and if you're the angriest voice(why that is, I'm not sure) among those from that viewpoint, then you're the one that's going to get responded to.

[17 Seconds]

what's with all the threads breaking down defense lately? it's like the new nsbb craze. look i'm all about stats, but im sorry.. i think people are going wayyyy overboard with the defensive metrics. when people are arguing that joey gathright (joey gathright) is better than abreu/ibanez/hermida/dunn, etc.... it's probably time to step away from the computer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

what's with all the threads breaking down defense lately? it's like the new nsbb craze. look i'm all about stats, but im sorry.. i think people are going wayyyy overboard with the defensive metrics. when people are arguing that joey gathright (joey gathright) is better than abreu/ibanez/hermida/dunn, etc.... it's probably time to step away from the computer.

 

It's really not difficult to craft a reasonable response that's not "cmon, Joey Gathright?". Not everything needs to be black and white.

[17 Seconds]

what's with all the threads breaking down defense lately? it's like the new nsbb craze. look i'm all about stats, but im sorry.. i think people are going wayyyy overboard with the defensive metrics. when people are arguing that joey gathright (joey gathright) is better than abreu/ibanez/hermida/dunn, etc.... it's probably time to step away from the computer.

 

It's really not difficult to craft a reasonable response that's not "cmon, Joey Gathright?". Not everything needs to be black and white.

 

i dont understand what you're saying

 

i've researched defensive metrics with an open mind in the past and i simply don't buy the accuracy that many people here are acting as though they give.

[TruffleShuffle]

what's with all the threads breaking down defense lately? it's like the new nsbb craze. look i'm all about stats, but im sorry.. i think people are going wayyyy overboard with the defensive metrics. when people are arguing that joey gathright (joey gathright) is better than abreu/ibanez/hermida/dunn, etc.... it's probably time to step away from the computer.

 

when people suggest ozzie smith doesn't belong in the hall of fame, they should also step away from the computer, but i see that argument made at least once a month.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

what's with all the threads breaking down defense lately? it's like the new nsbb craze. look i'm all about stats, but im sorry.. i think people are going wayyyy overboard with the defensive metrics. when people are arguing that joey gathright (joey gathright) is better than abreu/ibanez/hermida/dunn, etc.... it's probably time to step away from the computer.

 

It's really not difficult to craft a reasonable response that's not "cmon, Joey Gathright?". Not everything needs to be black and white.

 

i dont understand what you're saying

 

i've researched defensive metrics with an open mind in the past and i simply don't buy the accuracy that many people here are acting as though they give.

 

That doesn't mean you throw out the data point altogether. Even if you halve the defensive impact from each(and in most of the cases here we're talking about players on complete opposite ends of defensive ability(Gathright/Pie/Fukudome v. Dunn/Ibanez/Abreu)), then it's still worth pointing out that those defensive differences make them closer in value than Rotoworld might lead someone to believe.

[17 Seconds]

what's with all the threads breaking down defense lately? it's like the new nsbb craze. look i'm all about stats, but im sorry.. i think people are going wayyyy overboard with the defensive metrics. when people are arguing that joey gathright (joey gathright) is better than abreu/ibanez/hermida/dunn, etc.... it's probably time to step away from the computer.

 

It's really not difficult to craft a reasonable response that's not "cmon, Joey Gathright?". Not everything needs to be black and white.

 

i dont understand what you're saying

 

i've researched defensive metrics with an open mind in the past and i simply don't buy the accuracy that many people here are acting as though they give.

 

That doesn't mean you throw out the data point altogether. Even if you halve the defensive impact from each(and in most of the cases here we're talking about players on complete opposite ends of defensive ability(Gathright/Pie/Fukudome v. Dunn/Ibanez/Abreu)), then it's still worth pointing out that those defensive differences make them closer in value than Rotoworld might lead someone to believe.

 

I agree with all that. I'm not saying they're worthless, I'm just saying that some people are going overboard

 

When Colin essentially said he'd take Gathright at 10-15 million over Abreu at 800k I just couldn't read anymore

[mdwilla]

Young CF that plays defense with the best of them. Can run a ton and hit a little. Hasn't played much being a crowded Tampa outfield and injurys . The Cubs sign him to a one year deal worth 800k to be the 25th man everyone crys.

[imb]

Young CF that plays defense with the best of them. Can run a ton and hit a little. Hasn't played much being a crowded Tampa outfield and injurys . The Cubs sign him to a one year deal worth 800k to be the 25th man everyone crys.

 

this is one of the rare occasions when saying that a guy "can hit a little" is actually a huge over exaggeration

[badnews]

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth apparently. Joey Gathright isn't a great defender. It might be stretching it to even call him a good defender. This is like back when people thought Scott Podsednik was a good defensive outfielder because he stole a lot of bases.

 

This guy is supposed to be the fastest man in baseball, looking at his stolen base numbers, he's got to be an incompetent baserunner. Actually, what is the upside here? How often is the 25th guy on a roster a guy with zero bat, okay defense, who can run? I think that Dave Roberts steal has clouded people's judgement. Name me one team where the 25th guy on the roster is some piece of crap pinch runner who can't do anything else.