Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[BigbadB]

I'm interested in knowing why Dempster is bound to regress from his 2008 season. Was it the full season workload that he hasn't experienced in years? Is it the fact that the ink is now dry on his long term deal? I suppose these can be legitimate concerns, but I don't understand the assumption attached to Dempster's future as a starter as one that will regress.

 

If he went out there and had a few good outings in '08, I could be more understanding. Instead, he had many, many good outings. There comes a point where it's no longer a fluke.

 

I'm not penciling him in as the top starter on a team with a long list of potential #1 starters. But, why is everyone so convinced Dempster is going to tank this year?

Well, to begin with, regression to the mean is almost always a good assumption. Then add in age, difference in workload, etc. and it becomes an even even better one in this case.

 

What exactly is his "mean" though?

 

Prior to this season, he was a 1 inning pitcher for 4 years. Before that, he was a young abused starter who had numbers that continued to regress until he finally went under the knife. Yes, his WHIP was significantly better in '08 than it's ever been. The HR's were down. The walks were down and the K rate appears to be up a bit.

 

I'm not saying we should expect him to repeat last year's numbers. Most of what I'm reading here is that he will regress badly and not be an effective pitcher. And what I'm saying is that with the adjustments he made last year, I don't see any reason why he couldn't still be a solid 3.25/3.50 starter this coming year and in future seasons.

 

Who's to say he can't be to the Cubs what Chris Carpenter was to the Cardinals before he went under the knife? Very similar careers, except that Carpenter has never spent any time in the bullpen.

[Ski]

by the way, I saw the mlbtraderumors entry about Olney saying they had a "basic framework in place" or whatever, but the olney blog he linked to had nothing about peavy.

 

what's the deal?

It's in the insider portion, so you have to be an ESPN insider to view it. This is the link to the start of the article but you can't access the Peavy portion/the whole thing without an insider account.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3744124&name=olney_buster&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3744124%26name%3dolney_buster

Can you copy and paste the relevent portion?

[BigbadB]

by the way, I saw the mlbtraderumors entry about Olney saying they had a "basic framework in place" or whatever, but the olney blog he linked to had nothing about peavy.

 

what's the deal?

It's in the insider portion, so you have to be an ESPN insider to view it. This is the link to the start of the article but you can't access the Peavy portion/the whole thing without an insider account.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3744124&name=olney_buster&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3744124%26name%3dolney_buster

Can you copy and paste the relevent portion?

 

We probably shouldn't be copying and pasting that kind of information. The relevant portion has already basically been posted.

 

Olney is saying that the talks are on hold at this point because there is essentially a deal in place (probably in the sense of a handshake agreement), but the Cubs need to wait until the ownership situation clears up, and that the deal will center around Josh Vitters.

 

There really isn't much more to add.

[Ski]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

[ChiCubsFan]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

And that Vitters wasn't going to be included.

[BigbadB]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

[Cubswin11]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

That's pretty much how I feel there may be a player or two that are yet to be determined but the main pieces are probably set in place it is just a matter of time before Hendry makes it a go. I fully expect Marquis to be gone within the first 2 days of the winter meetings next week, and a Peavy deal short after. Marquis really isn't going to be that hard to move if we eat about 3 million of his salary and make the base around 6 million.

[BigbadB]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

That's pretty much how I feel there may be a player or two that are yet to be determined but the main pieces are probably set in place it is just a matter of time before Hendry makes it a go. I fully expect Marquis to be gone within the first 2 days of the winter meetings next week, and a Peavy deal short after. Marquis really isn't going to be that hard to move if we eat about 3 million of his salary and make the base around 6 million.

 

Hendry loses some leverage if he trades for Peavy first. Granted, most of us would probably take a sack of balls for Marquis, but Hendry isn't so dumb to recognize that he can probably get more for Marquis if he doesn't necessarily "have to be traded".

[JWCUB]

This whole thing is so surreal to me. I mean this is Jake Peavy. Who would have guessed this back in Aug.? Not me.

[BigbadB]

I'm not going to get excited about it yet.

 

Reading that signonsandiego site from a link this morning, someone threw together an Angels/Padres package that looks way better for the Padres than the assumed Cub package.

 

It was something along the lines of Willits, Aybar, Brandon Wood, Jered Weaver and a prospect for Peavy and Kouzmanoff. Peavy would still have to approve a trade to the AL, but if I was Towers, I'd be all over that. We just need for Peavy to hold off on going anywhere but Chicago.

[JWCUB]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

That's pretty much how I feel there may be a player or two that are yet to be determined but the main pieces are probably set in place it is just a matter of time before Hendry makes it a go. I fully expect Marquis to be gone within the first 2 days of the winter meetings next week, and a Peavy deal short after. Marquis really isn't going to be that hard to move if we eat about 3 million of his salary and make the base around 6 million.

 

Hendry loses some leverage if he trades for Peavy first. Granted, most of us would probably take a sack of balls for Marquis, but Hendry isn't so dumb to recognize that he can probably get more for Marquis if he doesn't necessarily "have to be traded".

 

Another question is is trading Marquis going to be purley a salary dump, or will it have to net the other components to land Peavy.

[BigbadB]

Another question is is trading Marquis going to be purley a salary dump, or will it have to net the other components to land Peavy.

 

That's impossible to answer at this point, IMO. If I had to guess, Hendry isn't going to get a very impressive return for Marquis. Heck, he's been dabbling Marquis on the market practically since the day he signed him. Besides that, teams aren't real willing to give up quality talent for a 1 year rental unless they are making a playoff push at the trade deadline.

[17 Seconds]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

That's pretty much how I feel there may be a player or two that are yet to be determined but the main pieces are probably set in place it is just a matter of time before Hendry makes it a go. I fully expect Marquis to be gone within the first 2 days of the winter meetings next week, and a Peavy deal short after. Marquis really isn't going to be that hard to move if we eat about 3 million of his salary and make the base around 6 million.

 

Hendry loses some leverage if he trades for Peavy first. Granted, most of us would probably take a sack of balls for Marquis, but Hendry isn't so dumb to recognize that he can probably get more for Marquis if he doesn't necessarily "have to be traded".

 

Another question is is trading Marquis going to be purley a salary dump, or will it have to net the other components to land Peavy.

 

I'm pretty sure if somebody called Hendry right now and said they'd take Marquis off his hands but wouldn't give the Cubs anybody in return, Hendry would immediately do it.

[cubsfan26]

I honestly don't care what we get in return for Marquis, but it would be nice to get a young relief pitcher, or LH specialist or something like that at least. Especially if were gonna eat 3-4m of his 09 contract.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

damnit, i got home and saw like 6 new pages added to this thread so i thought something good was happening. of course it was just kylejrm being ridiculous again

 

keep in mind this is the same guy who started a big argument about whether or not rick astley jumping out of a macy's day parade float constituted a rickroll

 

glad i could make your day a little worse

[RedFlash]

I'm not going to get excited about it yet.

 

Reading that signonsandiego site from a link this morning, someone threw together an Angels/Padres package that looks way better for the Padres than the assumed Cub package.

 

It was something along the lines of Willits, Aybar, Brandon Wood, Jered Weaver and a prospect for Peavy and Kouzmanoff. Peavy would still have to approve a trade to the AL, but if I was Towers, I'd be all over that. We just need for Peavy to hold off on going anywhere but Chicago.

 

Believe it or not, the Angels were the one team I am worried about jumping in and getting Peavy. I wasn't worried witht he Dodgers, or the Braves, and certaintly not the Cards/Yanks/ and Astros. Because: 1: Angels are a competitive team. 2: They are in California, which means Peavy wouldn't have to move his family. The only downsize to the Angels is this, there is the DH. From all accounts of Peavy, much like CC, wants to stay in the NL becuase they like to hit. But I don't think he would let that stand in the way of getting out of San Diego.

 

With that said, LAA hasn'y been seriously linked to Peavy all offseason, so right now I wouldn't get nervous about their involvement unless they strikeout on Tex, CC and brining back KRod.

[third eye]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

That's pretty much how I feel there may be a player or two that are yet to be determined but the main pieces are probably set in place it is just a matter of time before Hendry makes it a go. I fully expect Marquis to be gone within the first 2 days of the winter meetings next week, and a Peavy deal short after. Marquis really isn't going to be that hard to move if we eat about 3 million of his salary and make the base around 6 million.

 

Hendry loses some leverage if he trades for Peavy first. Granted, most of us would probably take a sack of balls for Marquis, but Hendry isn't so dumb to recognize that he can probably get more for Marquis if he doesn't necessarily "have to be traded".

 

Another question is is trading Marquis going to be purley a salary dump, or will it have to net the other components to land Peavy.

 

I'm pretty sure if somebody called Hendry right now and said they'd take Marquis off his hands but wouldn't give the Cubs anybody in return, Hendry would immediately do it.

 

This assumes that they would take on all of Marquis' salary. I think it is pretty obvious that no one would take the full ~10mm he'll be getting. But even if the Cubs can get 5-6mm of salary relief, it can be doable. My guess is, when the market gets set (given the current FA climate), that there would be a pretty decent demand for a veteran #3/4 starter who can get a team slightly better than league average ERA+ with 200 innings for around 5-6 million with only a 1 year commitment.

[third eye]

Argh.

 

Remember when we thought it was going to be announced that one Monday? Feels a long time ago.

 

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with ownership at all. Hendry has his budget and he knows what he can spend. I think he just needs to move Marquis, 1) to free up money and 2) complete the package for Peavy. We also know that Hendry doesn't like leaks. It certainly doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Marquis has to go if Peavy is coming here. Besides that, Hendry has acknowledged that teams have expressed interest in Marquis.

 

Hendry is generally recognized as a straight shooter. Towers knows that Hendry is offering up the best package he possibly can and Towers is pretty much stuck and will have to take it. At the same time, Hendry isn't going to shortchange Towers. Hendry likes to be able to negotiate with these same guys in future deals, so this will probably end up being a deal where everyone walks away about as happy as they can be given the situation. I'm still pretty convinced that a deal is already in place and Hendry just needs to find a taker for Marquis.

That's pretty much how I feel there may be a player or two that are yet to be determined but the main pieces are probably set in place it is just a matter of time before Hendry makes it a go. I fully expect Marquis to be gone within the first 2 days of the winter meetings next week, and a Peavy deal short after. Marquis really isn't going to be that hard to move if we eat about 3 million of his salary and make the base around 6 million.

 

Hendry loses some leverage if he trades for Peavy first. Granted, most of us would probably take a sack of balls for Marquis, but Hendry isn't so dumb to recognize that he can probably get more for Marquis if he doesn't necessarily "have to be traded".

 

Another question is is trading Marquis going to be purley a salary dump, or will it have to net the other components to land Peavy.

 

I'm pretty sure if somebody called Hendry right now and said they'd take Marquis off his hands but wouldn't give the Cubs anybody in return, Hendry would immediately do it.

 

This assumes that they would take on all of Marquis' salary. I think it is pretty obvious that no one would take the full ~10mm he'll be getting. But even if the Cubs can get 5-6mm of salary relief, it can be doable. My guess is, when the market gets set (given the current FA climate), that there would be a pretty decent demand for a veteran #3/4 starter who can get a team slightly better than league average ERA+ with 200 innings for around 5-6 million with only a 1 year commitment.

[Bote McBoteface]

Cant we just pretend we never signed Marquis and hope that he forgets to show up for spring training?

[Jehrico]

Cant we just pretend we never signed Marquis and hope that he forgets to show up for spring training?

With where things stand right now, that wouldn't be a very smart move...

[A New Era]

This whole thing is so surreal to me. I mean this is Jake Peavy. Who would have guessed this back in Aug.? Not me.

 

Yeah I know what you mean. It is kinda surreal, and exciting. Who would have thought last summer we'd be going after Harden? Now it's possible we'll have Harden and Peavy to start next year.

[RyneDawson]

I'm not going to get excited about it yet.

 

Reading that signonsandiego site from a link this morning, someone threw together an Angels/Padres package that looks way better for the Padres than the assumed Cub package.

 

It was something along the lines of Willits, Aybar, Brandon Wood, Jered Weaver and a prospect for Peavy and Kouzmanoff. Peavy would still have to approve a trade to the AL, but if I was Towers, I'd be all over that. We just need for Peavy to hold off on going anywhere but Chicago.

 

Believe it or not, the Angels were the one team I am worried about jumping in and getting Peavy. I wasn't worried witht he Dodgers, or the Braves, and certaintly not the Cards/Yanks/ and Astros. Because: 1: Angels are a competitive team. 2: They are in California, which means Peavy wouldn't have to move his family. The only downsize to the Angels is this, there is the DH. From all accounts of Peavy, much like CC, wants to stay in the NL becuase they like to hit. But I don't think he would let that stand in the way of getting out of San Diego.

 

With that said, LAA hasn'y been seriously linked to Peavy all offseason, so right now I wouldn't get nervous about their involvement unless they strikeout on Tex, CC and brining back KRod.

 

I don't see the Angels, or really anyone else getting in on Peavy until Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, and Teixeira sign. Angels top priorities are Sabathia and Teix. Yankees are Sabathia, Burnett, and Lowe. Dodgers are Sabathia and Manny. I feel like these other teams want to fill their voids through free agency. So, Hendry needs to get this done quickly, before any of those other guys sign. Because if the Angels are stuck with nothing, then they might come after Peavy and blow us out of the water. BUT, it could be that Towers and Hendry both know that Peavy only will come to the Cubs, and that is why Hendry is taking his time, because they might already have a deal in place, and Hendry isn't worried about any other teams, and just wants to try and trade Marquis, and wait for new ownership.

[C.C.]

I don't see the Angels, or really anyone else getting in on Peavy until Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, and Teixeira sign. Angels top priorities are Sabathia and Teix. Yankees are Sabathia, Burnett, and Lowe. Dodgers are Sabathia and Manny. I feel like these other teams want to fill their voids through free agency. So, Hendry needs to get this done quickly, before any of those other guys sign. Because if the Angels are stuck with nothing, then they might come after Peavy and blow us out of the water. BUT, it could be that Towers and Hendry both know that Peavy only will come to the Cubs, and that is why Hendry is taking his time, because they might already have a deal in place, and Hendry isn't worried about any other teams, and just wants to try and trade Marquis, and wait for new ownership.

 

If I'm the Angels I'd rather save 100 million and go get Peavy.

[Sever82]

I didnt see this posted here but i feel this will push the peavy deal foward if it happened:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8889074/Mets-proud-to-be-partners-with-Citigroup-despite-bailout-?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

 

According to Fox sports, the mets and cubs discussed a swap of Heilman for Marquis where the cubs would pay part of marquis' salary. I feel the only way the cubs get peavy is if Marquis goes, i doubt they'll trade lee or any other big salary players so marquis to me is pretty much the only option.

[RyneDawson]

Yeah, but the article states that the Mets passed on that deal, cuz they want to include Heilman in other trades. That would be an amazing trade for us though, but Heilman wants to be a starter. I could only imagine that we only wanted Heilman so we could package him over for Peavy. Trade Marquis AND Ascanio for Heilman (mets need RP), trade Pie for Olson.

 

Vitters, Heilman, Olson, and Cedeno for Peavy.

 

There ya go, done deal, why do GM's think this is so difficult??? And we keep Marshall to be the 6th starter ONCE Harden, Peavy, or Z go down.