Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't really care about terms, but take a look at their FIP or ERA+ after next season if it means that much to you.

 

Those are not total production stats, those are rate stats.

 

If you can promise me that Harden pitches 150+ innings for the Cubs next season, then my opinion of the rotation increases a bit.

 

Add in Marshall's or Shark's or Gaudin's or whoever's starts in his stead if he gets hurt then.

 

Then we're changing the terms a little bit, which gets back to my original point:

 

It's a good rotation, among the best in baseball, with a lot of depth but a lack of dominance.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

 

His HR rate isn't the only peripheral that dips on the road.

 

K/IP: .925

BB/IP: 0.363

K/BB: 2.54

 

ALL his peripherals take a big dip outside of San Diego.

Do me a favor and tell me how those rank amongst mlb starters during that timeframe.

 

That's a lot of datamining.

 

Point is, you pointed some thresholds out that I'm pointing out he can't cross on the road.

No...the point is that even his road peripherals are dominant and amongst the best in all of baseball.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx?playerid=1051&position=P&page=1&split=ha&type=full

http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx?playerid=1051&position=P&page=2&split=ha&type=full

http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx?playerid=1051&position=P&page=4&split=ha&type=full

 

How does fangraph calculate it's "good" and "poor" labels?

[Ski]

I love how people are already assuming Peavy will be part of the 2009 rotation.

[imb]

I don't really care about terms, but take a look at their FIP or ERA+ after next season if it means that much to you.

 

Those are not total production stats, those are rate stats.

 

If you can promise me that Harden pitches 150+ innings for the Cubs next season, then my opinion of the rotation increases a bit.

 

Add in Marshall's or Shark's or Gaudin's or whoever's starts in his stead if he gets hurt then.

 

Then we're changing the terms a little bit, which gets back to my original point:

 

It's a good rotation, among the best in baseball, with a lot of depth but a lack of dominance.

 

somehow neither zambrano, dempster, harden or peavy can match up to shaun marcum or jesse litsch?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I love how people are already assuming Peavy will be part of the 2009 rotation.

 

I think it's very, very likely.

[JWCUB]

Would you say the same thing about the Cubs 2008 rotation?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".

 

What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection."

 

"If Dempster's 2008 was entirely luck and reverts to average AND Harden gets hurt and misses time AND Zambrano has his worst year ever AND Peavy's road splits from 2008 and 2006 are somehow much more predictive than his road splits from 2007, 2005, and 2004; then our rotation may not be so grand" is not "reasonable projection", it's devil's advocate nonsense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

somehow neither zambrano, dempster, harden or peavy can match up to shaun marcum or jesse litsch?

 

the "respond to imaginary things no one said" thread is that way

 

*points*

 

Feel free to throw in some joke ratings while you are there.

[UMFan83]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".

 

What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection."

 

If Dempster has a 60% chance of regressing significantly and Harden has a 50% chance of missing over half the season with injuries, and Peavy has a 40% chance of matching his career road numbers, as if he was going to be pitching on the road all season and enjoy no home field advantage and Zambrano has a 40% chance of going through the season battling arm injuries again, what does it make the odds that all 4 of those things happen?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"If Dempster's 2008 was entirely luck and reverts to average AND Harden gets hurt and misses time AND Zambrano has his worst year ever AND Peavy's road splits from 2008 and 2006 are somehow much more predictive than his road splits from 2007, 2005, and 2004; then our rotation may not be so grand" is not "reasonable projection", it's devil's advocate nonsense.

 

Reasonable projection:

Dempster reverts at least halfway back between 2008 and previous norms

Harden pitches his career average for innings pitched

Peavy pitches his career road average

Zambrano and Lilly have years very similar to their last two.

[imb]

somehow neither zambrano, dempster, harden or peavy can match up to shaun marcum or jesse litsch?

 

the "respond to imaginary things no one said" thread is that way

 

*points*

 

Feel free to throw in some joke ratings while you are there.

 

you said that Halladay/Litsch or Marcum is a better duo than anything we could toss up even WITH peavy in the rotation.

 

i love doc, but unless he pulls a pedro, i doubt that will come true.

 

for all the wailing about harden's IP, he threw as many innings as marcum did, more or less, and he was much, much, much, much better

[Hairyducked Idiot]

somehow neither zambrano, dempster, harden or peavy can match up to shaun marcum or jesse litsch?

 

the "respond to imaginary things no one said" thread is that way

 

*points*

 

Feel free to throw in some joke ratings while you are there.

 

you said that Halladay/Litsch or Marcum is a better duo than anything we could toss up even WITH peavy in the rotation.

 

i love doc, but unless he pulls a pedro, i doubt that will come true.

 

for all the wailing about harden's IP, he threw as many innings as marcum did, more or less, and he was much, much, much, much better

 

This one belongs over in that other thread, too. I said "comparable," I didn't say "better."

 

And Harden's IPs were decent last year. I don't think it's reasonable to project him to match them in 2009, they look an awful lot like a positive outlier.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

 

His HR rate isn't the only peripheral that dips on the road.

 

K/IP: .925

BB/IP: 0.363

K/BB: 2.54

 

ALL his peripherals take a big dip outside of San Diego.

Do me a favor and tell me how those rank amongst mlb starters during that timeframe.

 

That's a lot of datamining.

 

Point is, you pointed some thresholds out that I'm pointing out he can't cross on the road.

No...the point is that even his road peripherals are dominant and amongst the best in all of baseball.

 

 

Using fangraphs league averages, his road periphals are excellent for strikeouts, almost exactly average for BBs, and slightly worse than average for HRs (way worse for 2008).

 

That's not "among the best in all of baseball."

Edited December 4, 2008 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So only 5-6 teams have comparable tops of the rotation, but we "lack dominance"? This is really a terrible argument.

 

I've also just realized I've spent the last 50 or so posts of mine arguing with people who don't think games in Petco Park are real.

[JWCUB]

Kyle....Would you agree with this statement?

 

By adding Peavy, the Cubs have the "potential" to have the most dominate staff in baseball.

[UMFan83]

"If Dempster's 2008 was entirely luck and reverts to average AND Harden gets hurt and misses time AND Zambrano has his worst year ever AND Peavy's road splits from 2008 and 2006 are somehow much more predictive than his road splits from 2007, 2005, and 2004; then our rotation may not be so grand" is not "reasonable projection", it's devil's advocate nonsense.

 

Reasonable projection:

Dempster reverts at least halfway back between 2008 and previous norms

Harden pitches his career average for innings pitched

Peavy pitches his career road average

Zambrano and Lilly have years very similar to their last two.

 

Why is it reasonable to predict that Peavy is going to pitch to his career road average. Isn't there are small advantage to pitching at home that shows up in the splits (assuming you don't play in Coors or Chase Field or something)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So only 5-6 teams have comparable tops of the rotation, but we "lack dominance"? This is really a terrible argument.

 

I've also just realized I've spent the last 50 or so posts of mine arguing with people who don't think games in Petco Park are real.

 

So it's all just a big, flukey coincidence that he's pitched so above-averagishly on the road and awesomely at home.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"If Dempster's 2008 was entirely luck and reverts to average AND Harden gets hurt and misses time AND Zambrano has his worst year ever AND Peavy's road splits from 2008 and 2006 are somehow much more predictive than his road splits from 2007, 2005, and 2004; then our rotation may not be so grand" is not "reasonable projection", it's devil's advocate nonsense.

 

Reasonable projection:

Dempster reverts at least halfway back between 2008 and previous norms

Harden pitches his career average for innings pitched

Peavy pitches his career road average

Zambrano and Lilly have years very similar to their last two.

 

Why is it reasonable to predict that Peavy is going to pitch to his career road average. Isn't there are small advantage to pitching at home that shows up in the splits (assuming you don't play in Coors or Chase Field or something)

 

About half a run. So take Peavy's career road ERA, subtract half a point, and you get 3.30, almost exactly his statistical projects posted earlier. Intersting.

[Rob]

Why do people keep trying to have conversations with Kyle? He has an irrational need to disagree with all things sane.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So only 5-6 teams have comparable tops of the rotation, but we "lack dominance"? This is really a terrible argument.

 

I've also just realized I've spent the last 50 or so posts of mine arguing with people who don't think games in Petco Park are real.

 

So it's all just a big, flukey coincidence that he's pitched so above-averagishly on the road and awesomely at home.

 

Yes, like it's a big fluky coincidence that he's pitched awesomely on the road 3 of the last 5 years, and the 2 he didn't he had injury troubles.

[imb]

So only 5-6 teams have comparable tops of the rotation, but we "lack dominance"? This is really a terrible argument.

 

I've also just realized I've spent the last 50 or so posts of mine arguing with people who don't think games in Petco Park are real.

 

So it's all just a big, flukey coincidence that he's pitched so above-averagishly on the road and awesomely at home.

 

roy halladay's road ERA is 0.05 better than peavy's

 

marcum, this stud who is comparable to zambrano, peavy and harden? 4.11

 

litsch? 4.00

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle....Would you agree with this statement?

 

By adding Peavy, the Cubs have the "potential" to have the most dominate staff in baseball.

 

Yes. If Harden stays healthyish, Dempster holds onto most of his 2008, and Peavy pitches as I'd project, that's the best rotation in the NL. It's got a good chance to be even without that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why do people keep trying to have conversations with Kyle? He has an irrational need to disagree with all things sane.

 

5.0

 

(I agree with conventional wisdom on a large majority of issues. I just don't post about it because there's no point in saying "Hey guys, I think Geovany Soto is a good hitter for a catcher!)

[UMFan83]

I don't know why people get so upset that Kyle argues things. That's what makes this board fun is to be able to argue with people with different viewpoints. And (OMG) we've managed to have like 4 pages of discussion about Jake Peavy IN the Jake Peavy thread.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that most pitchers do pitch a little worse on the road has persuaded me to temper my lack of enthusiasm for 2009 Peavy.

 

It remains for 2009 Harden and Dempster.