130 PC Night Moves Big Z to 2nd in PAP

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

While stopping by Bruce's blog , I found this little nugget.

 

Lou had to really look to find Carlos Zambrano on Baseball Prospectus' leader board under "Pitcher Abuse Points." That was, until last night. Zambrano threw a season-high 130 pitches in the Cubs' 2-1 victory over the Dodgers. With that pitch count, he moved up from 39th to second in PAP.

 

At the end of the blog, Bruce asks what we think of the 130 pitch night. Personally, I didn't like it. I felt he should have been pulled the inning before. Of course, with the Cubs winning it was quickly over looked. (I also over looked much of the abuse of Mark Prior in 2003, but I digress.) A lot of my feelings on it will be determined after I see how Zambrano is used in his next couple of starts. If he's lifted early or around 100 pitches in the next two or so, then I'm not so upset over this one time abuse. So, I'm taking a wait and see approach on the whole thing.

Edited May 30, 2008 by vance_the_cubs_fan

[CuseCubFan69]

Yeah, I think Z being lifted a little early in his next start or 2 might be a good thing as well so it would be nice if the Offense scores a bunch of runs in those starts to help make it possible.

[soapy]

i didn't like it. having said that, Lou hasn't made a habit of doing this and he did say he would "cut short" Zambrano's next few starts because of it. if that's the case, i'm not going to get upset over it. i just don't want to see 120+ pitches become the norm, obviously.

[gflore34]

And to think Fergie Jenkins used to throw 100 pitches in the BP prior to his starts!!!!

[bukie]

What really ticks me off about it is that it should have been over at 115-120, but two IF errors kept the inning going.

[UMFan83]

I don't mind it provided they take it easy on him the next 1-2 starts. He's been doing this for years, and he turns 27 on Sunday. I've read here and in other places that high PC's are typically a bigger thing for younger pitchers. Z is now settling into the prime of his career and has been up in the PAP standings for 5 years now. I'm not saying they should just let him loose and throw 130 pitches every start, but a couple times a year, provided they are taking care of him afterwards is not a huge deal.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

As Dusty once said, "you gotta ride your horse."

 

And, as Joe Morgan once said, "starting pitchers are the most important part of your pitching staff."

 

...

[Tyrant]

I think it's OK. One of the things I like about Lou is that he doesn't abuse his pitchers, so I think he's very aware of trying to conserve his pitchers' arms. This seems like it was a rare case.

[Soul]

It was a one run game, and you can bet if he pulled Z and the relief pitcher blew it people would be lambasting Lou for that, too. As long as Lou in conscious of it and gets Z more rest to make up for it, Z will drop back down on that PAP list and everything will be fine. If he continues to ride him like that all year, then yea there's a problem.

[CubColtPacer]

It was kind of a rare situation. Usually a pitcher gets pulled before that because of either pitch count starting the inning, or trouble during the inning. Z was at 103 to begin the inning, so I can see going either way with throwing him out there again. Then he got the first 2 outs on 6 pitches. After that, the trouble was only halfway his fault, and he was still the pitcher I trusted most to get the 3rd out.

 

Z's done this sort of long outing before, and he probably will again. This is a guy who throws 120+ pitches 5-6 times each year (5 last year, 7 the year before, 7 the year before that). This is his first one this year. He has even proven that he can go out and throw 120+ pitches in back to back outings before and have no ill effects (did that twice last year and once the year before that).

 

At the same time, even though he's proven that, I'd rather try to limit his pitch count to less than 110 the next couple starts, just to be safe. But I'm not a big fan of pulling Z in the middle of an inning unless he isn't being effective, so if he starts an inning with less than 100 and goes up to 115 during the inning (in a close game of course), I'm ok with that. If it wasn't a close game, I'd want him pulled before that inning.

[Tracer Bullet]

It was a one run game, and you can bet if he pulled Z and the relief pitcher blew it people would be lambasting Lou for that, too. As long as Lou in conscious of it and gets Z more rest to make up for it, Z will drop back down on that PAP list and everything will be fine. If he continues to ride him like that all year, then yea there's a problem.

 

I get so tired of this argument. If he pulls Z after 110 or so pitches and the reliever blew it, very few people on this board (outside of the game thread, where overreaction rules) are going to complain about taking Z out. We have 7 people in the pen, might as well use them. I mean, other than just Marmol and Wood.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As one of the minority of Cubs fans who were blasting Baker for pitch counts before it was cool to do so, I'm okay with Zambrano's 130-pitch start.

 

Some guys can handle that sort of a load, and he's proven to be one of them. It's stupid to take a young, untested arm and find out whether he can handle it or not. But a guy with Zambrano's age and history? I'm okay with the occasional stressful outing.

[Choonch]

I think it's OK. One of the things I like about Lou is that he doesn't abuse his pitchers, so I think he's very aware of trying to conserve his pitchers' arms. This seems like it was a rare case.

 

He does do a good job with keeping the starter's PC at a reasonable level, but I wish he showed the same type of restraint with Marmol. IMO, he should never be used unless it's a 1 or 2 run ballgame, or a high leverage situation.

[javy knows my name]

I think it's OK. One of the things I like about Lou is that he doesn't abuse his pitchers, so I think he's very aware of trying to conserve his pitchers' arms. This seems like it was a rare case.

 

He does do a good job with keeping the starter's PC at a reasonable level, but I wish he showed the same type of restraint with Marmol. IMO, he should never be used unless it's a 1 or 2 run ballgame, or a high leverage situation.

Yes, but Lou doesn't really know what this means

[Bruno7481]

I think he'll be fine. Obvioulsly you don't want to see him do this every time out, and he hasn't.

 

You can't just look at pitch count either, it is too simplistic. There are other more imprtant things involved, mechanical issues, etc. It isn't the number of pitchers, its how you are throwing them in most cases.

Edited May 30, 2008 by Bruno7481

[Derwood]

130 pitches wasn't worth trying to get Z his 8th win, which is the only reason I can fathom he was left in to pitch the 8th

[OleMissCub]

I think Z is one of those guys that could throw 150 pitches in a start and be fine like Randy Johnson or Livan Hernandez. I'd prefer that he NOT throw a lot of pitches, but I doubt it hurts him that much.

 

*knock on a huge chunk of wood*

*kiss leprechaun's ass*

[SouthSideRyan]

And to think Fergie Jenkins used to throw 100 pitches in the BP prior to his starts!!!!

 

Tommy Lasorda used to eat 100 hot dogs prior to his games!!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

And to think Fergie Jenkins used to throw 100 pitches in the BP prior to his starts!!!!

 

Tommy Lasorda used to eat 100 hot dogs prior to his games!!

and another 150 during

[twothousandfive]

Pushing Zambrano past 100 in the previous start against Pitt, with a 7-run lead, was equally questionable. But he'd had his short stint the start before that, so there was every reason to believe he'd be fine, and possibly could use a longer outing.

 

I'll argue argue that 73-109-130 is a better progression than 73-90-130. (or whatever it would have been). If the real injury risk is "pitches thrown after being tired," the 109 pitches may have built up just a bit more stamina to go to 130. But it also highlights the difficulty of predicting the future. If the Cubs "knew" it would be close against the Dodgers, would they have pulled Z an inning sooner against Pitt?

 

130 pitches wasn't worth trying to get Z his 8th win, which is the only reason I can fathom he was left in to pitch the 8th

Neither Marmol or Wood entered that game -- and they are the pitchers most likely to be used in a one-run game. It wasn't really clear what Ascano could do (still isn't), and Marmol is the guy who typically comes in during an inning. Given that the first two batters (the top of the order) were retired -- Z was going well, and not yet beyond a reasonable pitch count threshold. As others have said, once there is a guy on, then two, who's the pitcher you'd most like to see on the mound? Someone named Carlos, and Marmol seemingly was given the day off.

 

If it works well, and he can go anywhere between 85-100 in his next start, I think this becomes a non-issue. Piniella has shown a tendency to do just that sort of thing.

 

I suspect we will see at least one more 120+ pitch outing this season, and I think that is a good thing. Come October (if it all works out), every team the Cubs face will know if they are trying to run up the pitch count against Zambrano by taking a lot of pitches, they are playing with fire. They just might "take" their way to a complete game victory for Z and the Cubs.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Z is one of those guys that could throw 150 pitches in a start and be fine like Randy Johnson or Livan Hernandez. I'd prefer that he NOT throw a lot of pitches, but I doubt it hurts him that much.

 

 

You realize Livan hasn't been fine in years? He lost almost all his effectiveness, quite possibly because of the way Dusty used and abused him.

 

 

It was a stupid short-sighted decision by Lou. Zambrano wasn't sharp. Thankfully it's been somewhat rare, and hopefully it neither hurts Zambrano nor happens again.

 

But it's moronic to extend a guy in a game you are losing with the plan of making up for it by pulling him early in his next start. Who is to say what situation will come up in his next start? Wood and Marmol may be unavailable, or maybe the night before they have a long extra innings affair that burns through the pen. You essentially handicap yourself in a future game for absolutely no benefit to the current game. Plus, you risk the pitcher's health and effectiveness.

[OleMissCub]

I think Z is one of those guys that could throw 150 pitches in a start and be fine like Randy Johnson or Livan Hernandez. I'd prefer that he NOT throw a lot of pitches, but I doubt it hurts him that much.

 

 

You realize Livan hasn't been fine in years?

 

What are you talking about? He's pitched over 200 innings just about every year of his career. Just because he sucks now doesn't mean that his excessive innings are why. When would you consider Livan to have been "fine"?

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Z is one of those guys that could throw 150 pitches in a start and be fine like Randy Johnson or Livan Hernandez. I'd prefer that he NOT throw a lot of pitches, but I doubt it hurts him that much.

 

 

You realize Livan hasn't been fine in years?

 

What are you talking about? He's pitched over 200 innings just about every year of his career. Just because he sucks now doesn't mean that his excessive innings are why. When would you consider Livan to have been "fine"?

 

He came into the league on fire as a young pitcher, threw an absurd amount of innings and loss all effectiveness. Just because he's been healthy enough to throw 200 innings doesn't mean he's been healthy enough to pitch effectively.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Livan's a bit of an oddball. he had a really good 1st half season and hasn't really been all that good outside of a couple of years when he threw the most

[NCCubFan]

One 130 pitch start, OK. Repeated 120+ pitch starts, not OK.