Rosenthal: Rockies may decide to trade Holliday

[badnews]

I completely forgot he used to play 2nd, that's how accustomed I've gotten to seeing him in LF. If we traded for Holiday, I would have no qualms about moving Soriano back to 2nd. Defense be damned, that lineup would rake

 

I don't agree. Do these "paper champ" lineups ever work out as well as people think they will? Are the Detroit Tigers scoring 1000 runs yet? I mean seriously. Let's dig up the Miguel Cabrera thread trade where everyone handed them the World Series. If we could afford Holliday we'd be smarter to use those resources for pitching. Under no circumstances would I send Soriano back to 2nd.

[rawaction]

yeah, this is not going to happen. Holliday will not be traded.

[BigbadB]

Just imagine the type of package Colorado would be looking for to approve a trade for Holliday.

 

Bold prediction: Holliday will leave Colorado as a free agent.

[inari]

I completely forgot he used to play 2nd, that's how accustomed I've gotten to seeing him in LF. If we traded for Holiday, I would have no qualms about moving Soriano back to 2nd. Defense be damned, that lineup would rake

 

I don't agree. Do these "paper champ" lineups ever work out as well as people think they will? Are the Detroit Tigers scoring 1000 runs yet? I mean seriously. Let's dig up the Miguel Cabrera thread trade where everyone handed them the World Series. If we could afford Holliday we'd be smarter to use those resources for pitching. Under no circumstances would I send Soriano back to 2nd.

 

They might not work out as well as people think they will, but they're still almost always elite offenses.

[Jehrico]

I don't get moving Soriano to second to accomodate Holliday. Holliday is an upgrade over Soriano offensively, to be sure. I don't know that I'd call it a large upgrade. Maybe a significant upgrade, but not large. Moving Soriano to second isn't that large of an upgrade in offense over what we're getting now, but it is a gargantuan drop in defense, so I'd call any upgrade at 2nd a wash. That leaves us with a significant upgrade in the outfield. I can't see where the Rockies would deal us Holliday without Pie being part of the package. So that leaves Holliday and Fukudome in the OF, leaving Reed Johnson or Edmonds or someone of that caliber in the OF, which sucks and negates the gain we got from the trade before we even get into the value of Hill and Pie. The biggest upgrade is when DeRosa is pushed to the bench and Fontenot is sent down, and even that's not looking like that big of an upgrade at the moment. Holliday for Hill and Pie is not worth it if you're moving Soriano to second and you still have a crappy third outfielder after him and Kosuke.

 

That's not to say I wouldn't do Holliday for Pie and Hill. I would figure out an OF with Soriano, Holliday and Fukudome and live with any defensive problems out there. The upgrade in offense for our OF would be huge, and I'll more readily take a hit in outfield defense before the infield. Our infield is pretty dang good and deep right now, don't mess it up by putting Fonzie somewhere where he'll embarass himself. His defense in the MIF would only be a slight upgrade if we had resigned Jody Davis and put him out there, and that's who he was replacing. After 2+ years of not playing MIF anymore, he certainly shouldn't be expected to be as proficient as he was (which was not at all), you should expect him to be slightly worse at best.

 

In short, you only trade Hill and Pie for Holliday for the purpose of pushing a crappy player out of the starting lineup, not a solid one.

[davearm2]

yeah, this is not going to happen. Holliday will not be traded.

I wouldn't be so sure.

 

If the Rox offer the guy all the money they can fathom paying him, and he tells them no thanks, and they're 10 games under in July, and someone approaches them offering a Teixeira sized package, why would they say no?

 

That's a confluence of several circumstances to be sure, but none seems particularly unlikely.

[UMFan83]

Ceda, Vitters, Hill, Marmol, Pie, Colvin, Donaldson for Holliday

[Tyrant]

I would give up Pie and Hill in a heartbeat for this guy.

 

It's going to take a lot more than that, I imagine.

[anabiono]

i am going to go ahead and say that if IF he gets traded...there is no way in hell it is to the cubs

[Post Count Padder]

Holliday would be a dream, but I think the Rockies' asking price would be sky high.

[Twiggy]

It would take a ton to get holliday from the rockies. Pie, Hill, Marshall/Gallagher etc I woudl imagine.

[sporrer17]

Move Fukudome to CF.

 

That wasn't so difficult, now was it?

 

But what about Kosuke's feelings? :roll:

[AlwaysaCub]

I can already see the Cardinals trading some of their pitchers whose value is currently inflated (Todd Wellemeyer anyone?) to get Holliday, sign him to a long term deal, and have him torment us for the next 8 years.

[chuckywang]

Move Fukudome to CF.

 

That wasn't so difficult, now was it?

 

It's not that easy. Cubs promised him RF.

 

[erik316wttn]

Ceda, Vitters, Hill, Marmol, Pie, Colvin, Donaldson for Holliday

 

That's called rape. People have gone to jail for less than that. Marmol, Hill, and Pie alone are too much. If it decimates the team that much to land Holliday, then no thanks.

[Amazing_Grace]

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see why outfielders moving positions means much at all. They all use the same skillset. They run, they catch the ball, they throw, they have to make judgments about where the ball will land when it's hit. The biggest difference that isn't a bunch of traditionalist baseball nonsense is that the CF usually has to cover more ground because CF is larger. Of course, in Wrigley, due to the field configuration, the difference isn't that large. I think the real problem is that the traditionalist baseball types think that the RF has to have a great arm, the CF has to be a speedy guy, and the LF hardly matters. In reality, I suspect the LF takes the greatest share of throwing out baserunners from the OF and making catches due to the majority of hitters being RH and most of them tending to pull the ball more than go the other way.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ceda, Vitters, Hill, Marmol, Pie, Colvin, Donaldson for Holliday

 

That's called rape. People have gone to jail for less than that. Marmol, Hill, and Pie alone are too much. If it decimates the team that much to land Holliday, then no thanks.

 

Mon dios! If we're giving up all that, I want Tulowitzki and my choice of two prospects from their system.

 

Holliday is coming off a career year. I think he'll continue to be a .900+ OPS guy, but another season of 1.000+ is probably out of his reach.

 

I don't think any trade that includes Marmol makes sense for this year's Cubs. A high-leverage reliever is a huge key in the playoffs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see why outfielders moving positions means much at all. They all use the same skillset. They run, they catch the ball, they throw, they have to make judgments about where the ball will land when it's hit. The biggest difference that isn't a bunch of traditionalist baseball nonsense is that the CF usually has to cover more ground because CF is larger. Of course, in Wrigley, due to the field configuration, the difference isn't that large. I think the real problem is that the traditionalist baseball types think that the RF has to have a great arm, the CF has to be a speedy guy, and the LF hardly matters. In reality, I suspect the LF takes the greatest share of throwing out baserunners from the OF and making catches due to the majority of hitters being RH and most of them tending to pull the ball more than go the other way.

 

CF not only has to cover more ground, it also has more balls hit to it. Even at Wrigley, CF *is* much larger than left or right.

 

PECOTA projects the difference between Coco Crips and Rick Ankiel in center field to be 37 runs. That's pretty significant.

[Amazing_Grace]

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see why outfielders moving positions means much at all. They all use the same skillset. They run, they catch the ball, they throw, they have to make judgments about where the ball will land when it's hit. The biggest difference that isn't a bunch of traditionalist baseball nonsense is that the CF usually has to cover more ground because CF is larger. Of course, in Wrigley, due to the field configuration, the difference isn't that large. I think the real problem is that the traditionalist baseball types think that the RF has to have a great arm, the CF has to be a speedy guy, and the LF hardly matters. In reality, I suspect the LF takes the greatest share of throwing out baserunners from the OF and making catches due to the majority of hitters being RH and most of them tending to pull the ball more than go the other way.

 

CF not only has to cover more ground, it also has more balls hit to it. Even at Wrigley, CF *is* much larger than left or right.

 

PECOTA projects the difference between Coco Crips and Rick Ankiel in center field to be 37 runs. That's pretty significant.

 

But how many more runs will Ankiel generate with his offense? The question becomes whether the upgrade in offense is worth the downgrade in defense. Besides, what we have now is a platoon of Reed Johnson (who played a grand total of 64 MLB games in CF before this season) and old Jim Edmonds. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that the difference between that platoon and Kosuke is a lot less that the difference between Crisp and Ankiel.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But how many more runs will Ankiel generate with his offense? The question becomes whether the upgrade in offense is worth the downgrade in defense. Besides, what we have now is a platoon of Reed Johnson (who played a grand total of 64 MLB games in CF before this season) and old Jim Edmonds. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that the difference between that platoon and Kosuke is a lot less that the difference between Crisp and Ankiel.

 

PECOTA isn't very bullish on Ankiel's offense. But let's say he reaches his 75th percentile projection of .272/.335/.534, pretty awesome for a CF, right? Especially compared with Crisp's .270/.334/.414. Those work out to about a 20-run difference in VORP, not even enough to make up what Ankiel gives back in CF.

 

I get what you are saying in the general sense, but I think you massively underestimate the range of potential values from defense in center field. It was once trendy to dismiss defense when looking at things sabermetrically because defense was poorly understood and generally saying a guy was good defensively was a proxy for saying "Stats say he sucks but I like him." The Cubs lead the league in defensive efficiency, one of three stats most linked to overperformance in the postseason. I'd like to keep it that way.

 

I'll grant that Edmonds/Reed Johnson is a pretty mediocre platoon out there and we should be improving it, but raping our outfield defense isn't the way to do it. Playing Pie is.

[Amazing_Grace]

But how many more runs will Ankiel generate with his offense? The question becomes whether the upgrade in offense is worth the downgrade in defense. Besides, what we have now is a platoon of Reed Johnson (who played a grand total of 64 MLB games in CF before this season) and old Jim Edmonds. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that the difference between that platoon and Kosuke is a lot less that the difference between Crisp and Ankiel.

 

PECOTA isn't very bullish on Ankiel's offense. But let's say he reaches his 75th percentile projection of .272/.335/.534, pretty awesome for a CF, right? Especially compared with Crisp's .270/.334/.414. Those work out to about a 20-run difference in VORP, not even enough to make up what Ankiel gives back in CF.

 

I get what you are saying in the general sense, but I think you massively underestimate the range of potential values from defense in center field. It was once trendy to dismiss defense when looking at things sabermetrically because defense was poorly understood and generally saying a guy was good defensively was a proxy for saying "Stats say he sucks but I like him." The Cubs lead the league in defensive efficiency, one of three stats most linked to overperformance in the postseason. I'd like to keep it that way.

 

I'll grant that Edmonds/Reed Johnson is a pretty mediocre platoon out there and we should be improving it, but raping our outfield defense isn't the way to do it. Playing Pie is.

 

So the real difference from Crisp to Ankiel isn't 39 runs but 19, and that's an example of a very good defensive CF with OK offense vs. an extremely bad one with above average but not great offense. How does PECOTA project the Johnson/Edmonds platoon to do vs. Ankiel and/or Crisp.

 

As for playing Pie, he may be a good player down the line somewhere, but I don't think anyone projects him to be an elite player. At any rate, he's not likely to do that this season. He is a very impatient hitter. He's not quite as bad as CPatt was but he does not draw many walks and swings at a lot of bad balls. With his lack of patience, he's going to have a very long learning curve. I would think his OPS could end up about .750ish at best and low .600's at worst. He may be a good prospect but it's a good bet he won't be very good THIS SEASON. This season, what we can realistically expect from Pie is he'll be a streaky hitter, strike out a lot, walk seldom, hit for some power, and play good defense in CF.

 

In any event, his best shot was for the Cubs to start him Opening Day onward and hope he develops enough during the season to be decent down the stretch. The fact is he didn't get the chance. I agree that this was a bad move on Piniella's part, or Hendry's or whoever made that call, but nevertheless, the decision is made. If Pie is brought back up, he'll be pretty much starting over again and have 2 fewer months to work through his struggles. In other words, I think that the Pie ship has sailed, at least for 2008.

 

Edmonds/Johnson is not the answer. Coco Crisp is not a solution either. His plate discipline is worse than Pie's and he's making a lot more money. Right now I don't see a whole lot of options if we're not willing to move Kosuke. Maybe you try Cedeno or DeRosa in CF. I don't know, but I know none of us will be happy going into the stretch run depending on either Reed Johnson or Jim Edmonds to produce well beyond what their stats suggest.

[SouthSideRyan]

As for playing Pie, he may be a good player down the line somewhere, but I don't think anyone projects him to be an elite player.

 

PECOTA had him projected at 283/336/467 for '07. .291/.344/.480 for '08. With his defense, and that line as a 23 year old, I'd say he's projected to be an elite player.

[TruffleShuffle]

But how many more runs will Ankiel generate with his offense? The question becomes whether the upgrade in offense is worth the downgrade in defense. Besides, what we have now is a platoon of Reed Johnson (who played a grand total of 64 MLB games in CF before this season) and old Jim Edmonds. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that the difference between that platoon and Kosuke is a lot less that the difference between Crisp and Ankiel.

 

PECOTA isn't very bullish on Ankiel's offense. But let's say he reaches his 75th percentile projection of .272/.335/.534, pretty awesome for a CF, right? Especially compared with Crisp's .270/.334/.414. Those work out to about a 20-run difference in VORP, not even enough to make up what Ankiel gives back in CF.

 

I get what you are saying in the general sense, but I think you massively underestimate the range of potential values from defense in center field. It was once trendy to dismiss defense when looking at things sabermetrically because defense was poorly understood and generally saying a guy was good defensively was a proxy for saying "Stats say he sucks but I like him." The Cubs lead the league in defensive efficiency, one of three stats most linked to overperformance in the postseason. I'd like to keep it that way.

 

I'll grant that Edmonds/Reed Johnson is a pretty mediocre platoon out there and we should be improving it, but raping our outfield defense isn't the way to do it. Playing Pie is.

 

yeah, defense went from being overrated to underrated in a few years, to the point where everyone thinks a player like adam everett is worthless because he isn't a good hitter.

 

(note - this year his hitting has been SO bad that he really has been terrible, but most years his hitting is enough to make him an acceptable option at SS given that he's an elite defender)

[Amazing_Grace]

As for playing Pie, he may be a good player down the line somewhere, but I don't think anyone projects him to be an elite player.

 

PECOTA had him projected at 283/336/467 for '07. .291/.344/.480 for '08. With his defense, and that line as a 23 year old, I'd say he's projected to be an elite player.

 

If Pie were going to get a chance to play this season I'd tell you I'll eat my hat if his OPS is above .800 this year. He simply does not have the plate discipline to translate his minor league skills into major league skills that quickly. Given a whole season of experience facing ML pitching, he might have been up to a decent level. Of course, now we'll never know.

 

The Cubs have concluded that Pie is going to be drag on a WS run and at this point I agree with them, but then nobody has all-stars at every position. I think we could have lived with an all-glove no hit CF for half a season and still be able to compete for a playoff spot. We'd have half a season of numbers to look at, and some idea of where we were in the playoff race. Then we would be in a position to decide if Pie was going to cut it or not. Maybe the rest of the team is raking and we don't need Pie to do anything on offense. Maybe we are a few games out, the offense is struggling, and we realize we've gotta get someone that's gonna contribute. What's frustrating to me is that Lou or Hendry or both couldn't wait a couple months to see what happens.

 

We'll never know what would have happened because of Jim's itchy trigger finger. Instead, we've sent Pie down for two guys who are no more likely to have solid offensive production than he is, so we still have the same "problem" we had before, downgraded our defense for no real purpose, and we've also hampered one of our top prospect's development by playing him inconsistently for a month and a half then sending him down.

 

 

That, to me, is the idiocy of the Edmonds signing. Hendry didn't solve the problem he had, and he created two more problems you might not have had if he had shown a little patience.