MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[WrigleyinEngland]

Really like getting Roberts, hope Soriano moves down the order but.........4 and 5 in our rotation now looks horrible, Our first 5 hitters will be as good as anything in MLB but 6/7/8 of Soto/Theriot/Pie just plane scares me!.

[Tyrant]

Again, I'll believe it when it comes from a different source.

[soapy]

I hate giving up both Gallagher and Marshall going into 2008. Having said that, it's probably a fair deal. I don't think the Cubs over-paid. They just need a fifth starter and gave up two potential candidates.

[fromthestretch]

When you take off the blue-tinted glasses it's a fair deal. I don't think anyone in the national media is going to look at this deal and say the Cubs overpaid.

 

And when you consider that the Cubs have Marquis and Dempster as their fourth and fifth starters, Ryan Theriot starting at SS, and already have a decent second-baseman, it's a bit of a steep price to pay when you're giving up a decent major league starting pitcher, another starting pitcher with a strong minor league track record who is knocking on the door of the majors, and a young SS with a AAA OPS over .900. I'm not saying Roberts isn't a nice addition to the team because he certainly is. He'll be a upgrade offensively. However, at what cost? If the Cubs have to give 50+ starts to Marquis and Dempster this season because they don't have anyone else to step in, that's a problem.

[CubColtPacer]

If this deal is true, then if it's a bad deal or not depends on what Hendry does next. He has to bring in another pitcher now of some kind, even if that pitcher is just one of those that we've talked about as competition for the 5th starter spot. It will also be interesting to see who they acquire to fill the backup IF spot. The Cubs paid fair value for this deal, the only problem is the depth at the positions they traded. So this deal cannot be properly evaluated in terms of how it helps the team until the depth question has been answered with other moves.

 

I do think DeRosa has a decent chance to see decently significant time at SS by the end of the year (40 games started there or so), although a lot will depend on how much Lou has faith in whatever backup SS they bring in. I think DeRosa will only be an option if Lou is truly desperate, and I think Cedeno would have been the same way. As for the 5th starter spot, who knows if they were going to let Marshall pitch there anyway. That's another part that's hard to evaluate because it's hard to tell 1) if the Cubs were going to let these guys contribute anyway, if they weren't this deal becomes better, and 2) if the Cubs like one of the remaining young guys (Hart or Mateo) to make the leap and become a 5th starter option.

 

Hendry supposedly had a grand plan at the beginning of the offseason. It involved

1) getting Fukudome

2) getting a left-handed middle infielder

3) getting another starter

4) possibly trading for Figgins if Pie is used in deal for starter

 

So far he's over halfway finished. Hopefully he can finish the job, because the plan looks a lot better when it's complete.

[98navigator]

FWIW, my source also says the deal is final but one of the names is wrong; he wouldn't say which... Take it with a grain of salt but I think he really knows something.

[CubinNY]

If this deal is true, then if it's a bad deal or not depends on what Hendry does next. He has to bring in another pitcher now of some kind, even if that pitcher is just one of those that we've talked about as competition for the 5th starter spot. It will also be interesting to see who they acquire to fill the backup IF spot. The Cubs paid fair value for this deal, the only problem is the depth at the positions they traded. So this deal cannot be properly evaluated in terms of how it helps the team until the depth question has been answered with other moves.

 

I do think DeRosa has a decent chance to see decently significant time at SS by the end of the year (40 games started there or so), although a lot will depend on how much Lou has faith in whatever backup SS they bring in. I think DeRosa will only be an option if Lou is truly desperate, and I think Cedeno would have been the same way. As for the 5th starter spot, who knows if they were going to let Marshall pitch there anyway. That's another part that's hard to evaluate because it's hard to tell 1) if the Cubs were going to let these guys contribute anyway, if they weren't this deal becomes better, and 2) if the Cubs like one of the remaining young guys (Hart or Mateo) to make the leap and become a 5th starter option.

 

If'n he's backing up Theriot how good can he possibly be? I think DeRosa came up as a SS but hasn't played SS much at all since 2001. That was a long time ago.

 

My big fear is that the pitching won't hold up. It's like whack-a-mole with Hendry. He never plans for the worst case.

[Soul]

When you take off the blue-tinted glasses it's a fair deal. I don't think anyone in the national media is going to look at this deal and say the Cubs overpaid.

 

Alright, fair enough. If this is true, really the biggest problem I had was giving up what I considered our best option for #5 starter in Marshall. I know Gallagher is liked in these circles, but he's still firmly a prospect. I really feel Marshall would be solid @ the 5.

 

That said though, it's pretty clear with the Dempster announcement earlier in the offseason that the Cubs did not necessarily agree with that position, since they were set to slot Dempster in the rotation, which would presumably have left Marshall in the BP or @ Iowa.

 

So I guess I'm left wondering why the Cubs soured on Marshall, when he seemed to me to be the one guy who did a halfway decent job in the role last year.

[UMFan83]

You can make this trade look really bad for the Cubs.

 

 

Two of the Cubs biggest problems were offense at SS and starting pitching depth, particularly at the backend. So we solved this by trading our most MLB ready SS prospect and two starting pitchers for an admitted steroid user at a position that we were very set at.

[CubinNY]

You can make this trade look really bad for the Cubs.

 

 

Two of the Cubs biggest problems were offense at SS and starting pitching depth, particularly at the backend. So we solved this by trading our most MLB ready SS prospect and two starting pitchers for an admitted steroid user at a position that we were very set at.

Pretty much.

[Soul]

You can make this trade look really bad for the Cubs.

 

 

Two of the Cubs biggest problems were offense at SS and starting pitching depth, particularly at the backend. So we solved this by trading our most MLB ready SS prospect and two starting pitchers for an admitted steroid user at a position that we were very set at.

 

Cedeno's been to the majors more than once, and has been less than impressive each time. I'm not so concerned with giving him up.

[fromthestretch]

You can make this trade look really bad for the Cubs.

 

 

Two of the Cubs biggest problems were offense at SS and starting pitching depth, particularly at the backend. So we solved this by trading our most MLB ready SS prospect and two starting pitchers for an admitted steroid user at a position that we were very set at.

 

Cedeno's been to the majors more than once, and has been less than impressive each time. I'm not so concerned with giving him up.

 

2005 Ronny Cedeno says hello. :lol:

 

I wouldn't have too much of a problem with him being included in this trade if the Cubs weren't also dealing away one solid starting pitcher and a pitching prospect who could have possibly been better than Marquis and Dempster this season.

[Ryno is God 23]

We will be in major trouble if we send Gal and Marshall and one of our SPs gets hurt for any significant amount of time.

[wXw]

I'm for the Roberts deal, just not 100% comfy with what we're giving up (Mostly Gallagher). Would feel a lot better if Roberts played SS with the same kind of glove he plays 2nd.

[BigbadB]

If'n he's backing up Theriot how good can he possibly be? I think DeRosa came up as a SS but hasn't played SS much at all since 2001. That was a long time ago.

 

To be fair, Rafael Furcal was playing SS in Atlanta while DeRosa was there and Michael Young was playing SS while DeRosa was in Texas.

 

Michael Young came up as a 2b, and Soriano moved Young to SS. It happens.

 

But, because a better player is blocking you from playing a position for several years doesn't mean you can't play the position.

 

2008 will be the ultimate test. DeRosa is currently out of a starting gig if the Roberts deal is true. The only position he has even the slightest, remotest chance of winning the starting job is SS. And the competition, in my mind, won't be fierce since it will likely come down to one of Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa or Alex Cintron (once he's signed) :roll:

 

DeRosa has a stronger arm than Theriot. It's debateable, but let's assume Theriot has a bit more range. Range probably converts to a few more outs than arm strength, so we can give Theriot a slight edge defensively at SS. That slight difference won't touch the difference between the two at the plate. And where does this team need the most help? At the plate? Yes.

 

If the season begins today, the Cubs look to be one of the stronger defensive teams in the league. Because of the strength of that defense, I think you can sacrifice some of that defense for offense. And Theriot can still get some starts there when DeRosa is needed elsewhere or if DeRosa needs a day off.

 

To spin this another way, the Cubs are paying Theriot league minimum to be a league minimum (offensive production) major league SS. DeRosa is getting paid 4m to be his back up?

 

Something has to give.

[TheDude]

When you take off the blue-tinted glasses it's a fair deal. I don't think anyone in the national media is going to look at this deal and say the Cubs overpaid.

 

Alright, fair enough. If this is true, really the biggest problem I had was giving up what I considered our best option for #5 starter in Marshall. I know Gallagher is liked in these circles, but he's still firmly a prospect. I really feel Marshall would be solid @ the 5.

 

That said though, it's pretty clear with the Dempster announcement earlier in the offseason that the Cubs did not necessarily agree with that position, since they were set to slot Dempster in the rotation, which would presumably have left Marshall in the BP or @ Iowa.

 

So I guess I'm left wondering why the Cubs soured on Marshall, when he seemed to me to be the one guy who did a halfway decent job in the role last year.

 

You could look at it as souring on Marshall, particularly given his loss of job in August. But, if the rumors of dead-arm are true, then it might simply be a case of Hendry selling high on a guy who is MLB ready, but still somewhat green.

 

People always knock Hendry for not selling high, but when a player is in a position to sell high, the Cubs fan in us promotes the guy to near-untouchable status, or seriously inflates his probable actual value.

 

Roberts gives this team something it hasn't had in a long-time - a leadoff hitter with an OBP at .371 for his three-year split. People might want to compare this deal to the Pierre deal because of the number of players given up and contract remaining, but it's not even close. Roberts is a quality ballplayer.

[Outshined_One]

Again, I'll believe it when it comes from a different source.

 

Ditto. Once it gets on a more reputable site, I'll believe the deal's done.

[fromthestretch]

You could look at it as souring on Marshall, particularly given his loss of job in August. But, if the rumors of dead-arm are true, then it might simply be a case of Hendry selling high on a guy who is MLB ready, but still somewhat green.

 

People always knock Hendry for not selling high, but when a player is in a position to sell high, the Cubs fan in us promotes the guy to near-untouchable status, or seriously inflates his probable actual value.

 

Roberts gives this team something it hasn't had in a long-time - a leadoff hitter with an OBP at .371 for his three-year split. People might want to compare this deal to the Pierre deal because of the number of players given up and contract remaining, but it's not even close. Roberts is a quality ballplayer.

 

Selling high is great if you are dealing from a position of strength or if you're not in a position to be competitive in the immediate future. Dealing away two quality arms doesn't leave the Cubs with many major league ready options at starting pitcher beyond Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, and Dempster. Who steps in when Dempster fails as a starter or when someone gets hurt? Mateo?

 

And no one is comparing this to the Pierre deal. Roberts is much better than Pierre.

 

Edited to correct a misspelling.

Edited January 9, 2008 by grassbass

[The Voice of Reason]

If'n he's backing up Theriot how good can he possibly be? I think DeRosa came up as a SS but hasn't played SS much at all since 2001. That was a long time ago.

 

To be fair, Rafael Furcal was playing SS in Atlanta while DeRosa was there and Michael Young was playing SS while DeRosa was in Texas.

 

Michael Young came up as a 2b, and Soriano moved Young to SS. It happens.

 

But, because a better player is blocking you from playing a position for several years doesn't mean you can't play the position.

 

2008 will be the ultimate test. DeRosa is currently out of a starting gig if the Roberts deal is true. The only position he has even the slightest, remotest chance of winning the starting job is SS. And the competition, in my mind, won't be fierce since it will likely come down to one of Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa or Alex Cintron (once he's signed) :roll:

 

DeRosa has a stronger arm than Theriot. It's debateable, but let's assume Theriot has a bit more range. Range probably converts to a few more outs than arm strength, so we can give Theriot a slight edge defensively at SS. That slight difference won't touch the difference between the two at the plate. And where does this team need the most help? At the plate? Yes.

 

If the season begins today, the Cubs look to be one of the stronger defensive teams in the league. Because of the strength of that defense, I think you can sacrifice some of that defense for offense. And Theriot can still get some starts there when DeRosa is needed elsewhere or if DeRosa needs a day off.

 

To spin this another way, the Cubs are paying Theriot league minimum to be a league minimum (offensive production) major league SS. DeRosa is getting paid 4m to be his back up?

 

Something has to give.

 

I think Lou showed last year that just because he gives a guy a chance, it doesn't mean he'll stick with him (see Izturis). If Theriot starts slow, I see Lou moving DeRosa to short full time.

[Ender]

Large market teams can afford to 'overpay' with prospects so there is nothing wrong with the deal. If the names remain the same I like the deal a lot for the Orioles but I don't think the Cubs are really any better than the Brewers so if Roberts is even a 1 or 2 win upgrade it could be what puts the Cubs in the playoffs so it is worth it.

[JohnF]

Here's an update from the Baltimore Sun:

 

A team spokesman said he just contacted president Andy MacPhail, who insisted that the rumor is "very inaccurate." The Sun's Dan Connolly just spoke to MacPhail, who said nothing has changed since last night.

 

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/2008/01/latest_brian_roberts_rumor.html

[Tyrant]

Edit: Too late on the update

[BigbadB]

When he says is is very inaccurate, I hope it's because the player's going the Orioles way aren't named Cedeno or Gallagher.

[Outshined_One]

Can we please stop quoting rumors from their site as truth? They've slipped past MLB Trade Rumors in terms of credibility, imo.

[Tyrant]

Someone put this thread out of its misery. Please. It's like Julio Franco.