2008 Bill James Projections

[Mephistopheles]

Take them with a grain of salt. I have no idea how accurate his 2007 ones were. In decreasing OPS

 

OF

.278/.328/.517 Alfonso Soriano 35 HR

.305/.373/.468 Matt Murton

.283/.333/.456 Felix Pie

 

CI

.297/.386/.515 Derrek Lee 25 HR

.296/.355/.532 Aramis Ramirez 31 HR

 

MI

.279/.348/.405 Mark DeRosa

.269/.321/.400 Omar Infante

.283/.348/.371 Ryan Theriot

Cedeno not listed

 

C

.291/.362/.487 Geovany Soto

 

SP

14-9 3.50 223:69 K:BB in 206 IP Rich Hill

14-10 3.51 189:89 K:BB in 215 IP Carlos Zambrano

12-11 3.98 174:77 K:BB in 208 IP Ted Lilly

9-12 4.66 109:74 K:BB in 191 IP Jason Marquis

 

Notables

.278/.332/.433 Jacque Jones

.299/.339/.452 Carl Crawford (um = Pie)

13-11 3.69 ERA 207:78 K:BB in 210 IP Erik Bedard (um < Hill)

.301/.359/.479 Miguel Tejada

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Geovany Soto

[Geech]

I hope he's right, but several of these seem very optimistic to me.

[jersey cubs fan]

I hope he's right, but several of these seem very optimistic to me.

 

extremely

[wolf stansson]

He still LOVES the Rich Hill. Not quite as much as last year, but still...

[BigbadB]

So Mike Fontenot's 2006 will be better than Omar Infante's 2007.

 

Cool! Hendry really is a genius.

[Backtobanks]

I hope he's right, but several of these seem very optimistic to me.

 

I hope the starting pitchers have better records than his projections. With those optimistic offensive numbers the starters ought to have better records.

[CubColtPacer]

Anybody think he's putting a little too emphasis on career numbers? That would explain the projections for Soriano and DeRosa. Also it explains why Murton and Theriot are a little high because of Murton's 2005 and Theriot's 2006 partial seasons respectively.

 

Ramirez hasn't dropped below 900 in 4 years, and now he's going to drop 30 points from last year even while hitting 9 more home runs? That doesn't make that much sense.

 

Pie understandably goes down from his crazy projection from last year, but I'm not sure it was enough.

 

Crawford's projection also seems low considering his last couple years and his age.

[Soul]

If we put up those kind of offensive numbers, we'll be much much better than expected.

 

I also think those are pretty optimistic predictions.

[XZero771679666304]

If we put up those kind of offensive numbers, we'll be much much better than expected.

 

I also think those are pretty optimistic predictions.

 

I think Pie, Murton, Theriot, Infante and Soto are a bit optimistic, but the rest seem about right to me.

[javy knows my name]

Take them with a grain of salt. I have no idea how accurate his 2007 ones were. In decreasing OPS

 

OF

.278/.328/.517 Alfonso Soriano 35 HR

.305/.373/.468 Matt Murton

.283/.333/.456 Felix Pie

 

CI

.297/.386/.515 Derrek Lee 25 HR

.296/.355/.532 Aramis Ramirez 31 HR

 

MI

.279/.348/.405 Mark DeRosa

.269/.321/.400 Omar Infante

.283/.348/.371 Ryan Theriot

Cedeno not listed

 

C

.291/.362/.487 Geovany Soto

 

SP

14-9 3.50 223:69 K:BB in 206 IP Rich Hill

14-10 3.51 189:89 K:BB in 215 IP Carlos Zambrano

12-11 3.98 174:77 K:BB in 208 IP Ted Lilly

9-12 4.66 109:74 K:BB in 191 IP Jason Marquis

 

Notables

.278/.332/.433 Jacque Jones

.299/.339/.452 Carl Crawford (um = Pie)

13-11 3.69 ERA 207:78 K:BB in 210 IP Erik Bedard (um < Hill)

.301/.359/.479 Miguel Tejada

 

I would be ecstatic about that kind of production from Soto. Anyone else think Carl Crawford = Felix Pie's ceiling?

[Outshined_One]

Anyone else think Carl Crawford = Felix Pie's ceiling?

 

I think Pie will be a tick more patient, hit for a bit more power, but be nowhere near the base stealer of Crawford.

[imb]

Anyone else think Carl Crawford = Felix Pie's ceiling?

 

I think Pie will be a tick more patient, hit for a bit more power, but be nowhere near the base stealer of Crawford.

 

He'll be a much better defender.

[TruffleShuffle]

Anyone else think Carl Crawford = Felix Pie's ceiling?

 

I think Pie will be a tick more patient, hit for a bit more power, but be nowhere near the base stealer of Crawford.

 

he might hit more home runs, but i don't know that his SLG% will necessarily be better.

 

The Crawford projection makes no sense. He's inexplicably going to decline at age 26?

 

Also, Bedard will blow those numbers out of the water if he's healthy.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Who cares if the projections are optimistic..Bill James wants you people to be happy! WHY CAN'T YOU PEOPLE JUST BE HAPPY!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

.283/.333/.456 Felix Pie

.291/.362/.487 Geovany Soto

yes, plz

[Post Count Padder]

Geovany Soto

[dougdescenzo]

Looks like our right field problem shouldn't even be a problem in the first place.

[abuck1220]

please don't trade hill for crawford.

[MPrior]

Weren't these way off last time? If I'm remembering correctly (and I may not be), the word on the street about Bill James' projections is that they tend to be a little too kind to below average players; an .800 OPS doesn't seem too hard to come by.

[nilodnayr]

So Mike Fontenot's 2006 will be better than Omar Infante's 2007.

 

Cool! Hendry really is a genius.

James predicts a 279/345/416 line for Fontenot

[badnews]

The Crawford projection makes no sense. He's inexplicably going to decline at age 26?

 

This statement is problematic to me. I don't understand the reasoning that a player under 30 must have every season be better than the last. It doesn't work that way for players of any age as a rule.

 

For example, Grady Sizemore posted a 123 OPS in 2005, a 133 OPS in 2006, and a 122 OPS in 2007. So if I had predicted that, would you have said "That makes no sense. He is inexplicably going to decline at the age of 24-25?" Even Miguel Cabrera's OPS+ took a decline this year.

 

What is odd about predicting Crawford's batting average is going to come down considering every year his strikeouts and BABIP rise? He had something like a .371 BABIP this year.

 

Also, Bedard will blow those numbers out of the water if he's healthy.

 

I will go on record and say that Bedard is never this good again.

 

But yeah, some of those predictions look pretty silly and out there.

[Soul]

If we put up those kind of offensive numbers, we'll be much much better than expected.

 

I also think those are pretty optimistic predictions.

 

I think Pie, Murton, Theriot, Infante and Soto are a bit optimistic, but the rest seem about right to me.

 

OK, no disagreement here. If we get that kind of production from those guys though, sheesh I would be doing backflips.

[nick23]

If Theriot puts up that line next season I'd have no problem with him being the starting SS.

[abuck1220]

wow, last year's bill james thread has some classic rich hill arguments in it.