MPrior

I'm a little sad to say that after that interview, I don't really...LIKE Bryce Harper. He seems a little like he's a bit full of himself, takes himself too seriously - not sure he'd fit in super well with the loose vibe of the current players. That said, I still obviously WANT him on the Cubs. I just wish I liked him better.

Someone convince me that trading for Machado at all is the right move - I mean, he's obviously an excellent player, but it seems like getting him is going to require a lot of long-term value, if what's said about the Orioles' asking price is true. And for a team with a window like ours, giving away a bunch of long-term value for one year of an excellent player (who, I might add, does not really fill a position of need for us) seems like a sub-optimal use of resources. Obviously, if we do trade for him, I'll be excited to watch him for a year, but I just have a hard time feeling too jazzed about any scenario that involves trading for Machado. And I agree with TT - any trade that involves sending Russell for Machado makes particularly little sense to me. If Russell is flipped for pitching, especially a good pitcher with multiple years of control, then that makes more sense.

Omg omg omg omg omg omg - I love everyone in here and I know none of you. Go Cubs Go!

Found this site in 2003 or 2004, I can't remember. Initially registered under a different name, then lost the password. Anyway, I'm still on here all the time. Mostly lurking - most of my posts are from a half-drunken late-night argument many years ago with Sulley/Stannis (I think? My memory fails me) about atheism, if I remember correctly. All the same, just as excited about the Cubs as anyone else!

Is there any way to stream this game if I don't have a cable subscription? Not finding an easy way to stream.

Yeah, I think you'd have to be willing to part with Soler for Miller (although I don't think the Yanks would accept Soler as the centerpiece for Miller) - we don't even know if Soler will ever be a useful baseball player - I know we all look at his potential and salivate (me too!), but thus far, he's an injury-prone defensive liability whose hot streaks with the bat are matched only by his cold ones. Miller is a reliable monster out of the pen, good for 2ish WAR and 4ish WPA, and he addresses a weakness. Otherwise, though, I'm more in David's camp - I wouldn't be interested in trading, say, Torres for him - I agree with you David that the opportunity for us to substantially move the needle on our chances this year is slim to none (although the best way to do that would likely be with an ace LH relief pitcher, unless one of our starters gets injured), and I wouldn't want to give up too much for it - my main goal at this point would be to ensure that our team remains this good for as many years as possible.

I work at one of the world's most advanced and respected hospitals; we're flush with resources and have access to just about every cutting-edge medical technology there is. And not only do I routinely use the fax machine, the primary method that people use to communicate with me is my pager. Aren't you glad that your health is in good hands?

This. When the season's over, whether for good or ill, I won't have my conscience sullied by having - shudder - rooted for the Cardinals.

Don't give in, brother. I thought you had changed your handle - so glad to see I have a partner in miserable, futile obstinacy.

As perhaps the lone holdout who refused to change his handle after Prior left, I feel as though I'm obligated to post somewhere in this thread. .... I now hate myself for doing so.

Forgive me for not reading the entirety of this thread - it looked like a disaster of a thread, so I skimmed judiciously (i.e., I stopped reading after ~1.5 pages). In any case, I'm sorry if I'm just repeating what's already been said, but here goes: There are some reasons for optimism with Stewart if you look a little deeper into his stats: I think someone earlier pointed out that his K% was a career low, now at 19.0%, down from a career of 27.0%, while his BB% is right about at his career average of ~10%. It turns out that this is substantiated by his plate discipline stats, which are typically the first statistics to stabilize - most notably, his swinging strike % is also a career low of 9.8% (vs a career value of 12.2%; his previous low is 11.5%). The league average SwStr% is 8.8%, which is similar to previous years. He's swinging at 28.6% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is the lowest value he's posted since 2009. His contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone is also a career high, at 64.2%, up from a career value of 53.4% (you could interpret this in a couple of different ways, but at the minimum it corroborates his low SwStr%). His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is consistent from the last two years, but is still above his career rate (84.8% vs. 81.7%); all this results in a career-high contact rate of 76.5% (vs. 72.5% career). Additionally, his batted ball profile is dramatically different from his career norms (for better or worse), as I think has been discussed already. Sorry for all the wordiness, but the bottom line is that he really does seem to have changed his approach fairly dramatically, and his K% may remain low, and we might see his average climb into the not-terrible range. FWIW, his xBABIP from one calculator is .335, which is a whole hell of a lot better than his current .217. I don't think Stewart is all of a sudden going to be a world beater, but there is reason for optimism that he might become a slightly below league-average 3B bat with really good defense. Which would make him a totally usable major league player that the front office got for basically nothing and at no risk.

I'm not sure it would be a great idea unless we trade Marmol now (and that doesn't seem to be a wise move, as discussed elsewhere). I know teams have come a long way in their evaluation of players, but many of them are still going to put a lot of value on the "closer" label and on saves totals. If we've got Marmol and Madson on the roster, we're going to have de-value one of them by keeping him out of the closer role. That doesn't seem like an efficient way to gather assets.

So this is my first post in a LONG time, and I apologize if this point has been made ad nauseum all across the board (I admit I haven't been paying much attention), but Soriano probably isn't as bad as this past year indicates. Now, he's not particularly good, either, but he was fairly unlucky this year - he had a .266 BABIP, the lowest of his career in a full season, accompanying a 19.8% LD percentage. There is a disturbing trend in his plate discipline numbers (and a corresponding dip in his walk percentage from what it had been in 2008-2010), but if he just regresses to the mean a little next year (fingers crossed), he'll be useful. Just not anywhere near worth his contract. Basically, I'm not really adding anything new to the conversation: like many have said, it would be pretty dumb to just drop him, since he's not blocking anyone better, and he still has some value. I just added some numbers to the mix. As far as the lineup construction thing goes, I really doubt it had much impact on his performance. I'm sure he'd be happier hitting more consistently in the 6th spot (or higher, I suppose), so I guess Quade could have appeased him a little and just left the lineup card the way it was. My inclination, though, is to think that he wouldn't have hit any better in that situation.

I know this has probably been discussed ad nauseum on here, but I just thought it'd be worth pointing out that Geovany Soto is second only to Jorge Posada among all MLB catchers with at least 150 PA in wOBA. And yet Lou continually benches him. If that's not frustrating, I don't know what is. Just venting. Both the Cubs and my fantasy team are suffering.

I know it may not be too pertinent, but Lee is better than Price, and possibly Greinke too (he certainly has been so far this year). If the other guy values one of them more than Lee, I'd try to leverage that - maybe he'd be more willing to let go of Gonzalez if you include Price, for example.

If I were him, I don't think I'd accept, although I'd be very tempted - Kelly Johnson will certainly regress, but I'd bet that he remains a very valuable 2B (he just won't hit quite so many homers). Basically the same thing could be said about Vernon Wells. However, he'd be giving up one of the best starters in the game AND one of the best relievers in the game for two questionable players. And it's hard to stomach giving up the only two elite players in the trade, even accounting for the fact that position players are more valuable than pitchers.

6x6 (standard categories, but replace stolen bases with net stolen bases, avg with OBP, and add SLG; add BB on pitching side). I've been offered James Shields and Brandon Phillips for Alfonso Soriano and Jimmy Rollins. I'm fairly high on Shields - he's the only one of the Rays' starters who's actually pitched as well as his line looks, and I think he's an under-appreciated ace. I'd also like to sell high on Soriano, but I'm not high on Phillips, who would be a minor downgrade from Rollins (either would occupy my MI spot, so position is not really a major concern for me). My inclination is to say that I'm giving up too much, but I'm not 100% sure. What do you guys think?

The previous trade fell through - the guy backed out. Another guy offered me Roy Halladay for Justin Upton, though. As I said earlier, I'm in pretty desperate need of pitching, and I have spare outfielders, so I'm tempted to take it. However, Upton is my only top-notch outfielder; the rest are just okay, for the most part (Alex Rios, Denard Span, Magglio Ordonez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Quentin, Adam Jones, Carlos Beltran on the DL). Halladay is particularly valuable in our game, because BBs are a negative category for pitching, and he walks so few batters. Going into this season, I was ridiculously high on Upton, but I've come down on him a bit so far this season - he's performed very poorly (for him), but his batted ball profile is the same as before, his HR/FB% is right at the level you'd expect, and his BABIP is .326, which is right in line with what his profile would predict. The only issue is that he's striking out 34.5% of the time. This seems to be due to the fact that he's taking a lot of pitches for strikes (Z-Swing of 58.6%, down from 68.9% last year), and that he's missing the pitches in the zone that he swings at (74.0% Z-contact rate, down from 80.9% last year). Plus, his BABIP last year was .360, and his HR/FB was 18.8%. It's possible that people just got too excited about him because of last year's performance. So - do I accept the trade?

6x6 league (Net SB replaces SB, OBP replaces AVG, add SLG;add BB to the pitching side). My team has been horrible thus far this year, although it's showing signs of waking up. I seem to have drafted every player who's destined to start out as cold as ice, in addition to just about every player destined to be on the DL. In any case, I've found myself with an excess of outfielders (even though we start 5 of them), and I'm badly in need of pitching and a second baseman (Brian Roberts looks like he might never come off the DL, and I have Scott Sizemore starting in his place). Here's the trade: I give Magglio Ordonez and James Loney I get Brandon Phillips and Josh Beckett. In a standard 5x5 league, I think I'd pull the trigger on this one right away. However, Brandon Phillips' value takes a huge hit in our league, because he's not going to help at all in the OBP department, his SLG isn't that great either, and he gets caught stealing enough that his SB aren't as valuable. Also, trading Maggs and Loney away would require me to start either Aramis Ramirez or Adam Jones, who are both HORRIBLE right now. Ideally, I'd like to unload Jones rather than Ordonez, but the other players in my league seem to be scared away by his horrible start. Oh - it's a keeper league, but I don't think that really plays a role in this trade.

My instinct says no, but it's close - it would depend on your league, and the rest of your team. But from what it sounds like, it doesn't seem like an efficient use of resources. I feel like you're giving up a lot to get not too much back. Essentially, Rafael Soriano is a sunk cost (him, Rauch, and Marmol is a lot better than just Rauch and Marmol, unless there's a reason you can't play all three), you take a decent step down from Hamels to Wolf, and all you're getting is the improvement from Alfonso Soriano to Morales (who I think is going to regress a bit this year, although he'll still be better than Soriano). Plus, you'll have Alfonso on your bench, not really doing anything.

The rest of my team (as you can probably see, I made some mistakes in my draft - I have a TON of injured players, and too many hitters on the bench, because my plan was to use my surplus players in trades for pitching. This was a bad idea, but there's still a lot to like here): C Miguel Montero 1B Miguel Cabrera 2B Brian Roberts SS Jose Reyes 3B Alex Rodriguez MI Erick Aybar CI Aramis Ramirez OF Justin Upton OF Carlos Quentin OF Alex Rios OF Denard Span OF Adam Jones Util Austin Jackson (I just took a flier on him to see how he does) Bench Geovany Soto Bench Scott Sizemore (just picked him up to fill in for Roberts, who hurt himself yesterday) Bench Everth Cabrera Bench Lance Berkman (injured, but my DL spots are full) DL Carlos Beltran SP Cole Hamels SP Gavin Floyd RP Joakim Soria RP Chris Perez P Brian Matusz P Mat Latos P Clay Buchholz P Cliff Lee (injured, but my DL spots are full) DL Kerry Wood 10-team league. The reason my pitching is so weak is that I just traded Felix Hernandez for Miguel Cabrera. It hurt my pitching a lot, but I thought the better value I got was worth it. What I'm hoping to do is trade some of my bench players (Soto or Montero, Everth Cabrera, Aybar, and/or Sizemore) for some serviceable pitching - nothing fancy.

A bunch of classmates and I just started a keeper league which will almost definitely go on for at least 4 years, and I've been proposed a trade: I get: Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Lee I give: Justin Upton. Our categories: R, HR, RBI, NetSB, OBP, SLG W, K, SV, BB, ERA, WHIP I'm VERY high on Justin Upton (who isn't?). I also need pitching pretty badly, and I'm particularly weak on Ks, which Kershaw would help a lot with. However, he walks a TON of batters, and with WHIP and BB as categories, he could hurt too. Carlos Lee is Carlos Lee - uninteresting, but reliably pretty good fantasy value. My inclination is not to take this trade, since Upton is one of a small handful of players who will be very valuable as a keeper all four years, but I wanted to see what you guys think. Thanks.

I know it wasn't intended this way, but these two posts in succession sure seem funny to me.

Raisin, I should probably simply defer to your greater knowledge of prospects here - and you're probably right. But I'm gonna try to explain myself anyway: It's not that Drew can't or won't be a good PG; I just have doubts about his ability to be the type of point guard I've been spoiled with the past few years, or even close. Coming out of high school, he was considered a marginal 4-star prospect, if I remember correctly, and his performance so far has failed to live up to what you'd expect out of that type of freshman. I just don't think he has the raw talent necessary to be much more than adequate. I think our team could probably be pretty dominant with an adequate PG, though, so here's hoping. Mostly, I'll be happy if he just stops turning the ball over so much. I've heard that he took 800-1000 shots/day all summer long, so hopefully his shot will be improved, too.

I'd just like to throw in my two cents with regards to UNC's ranking, as it seems to have upset some people. I'm an avid UNC fan, and I still generally agree that both polls rank us too highly. While we do have what's probably both the best and deepest frontcourt in the country, we have very little going for us in the backcourt. Larry Drew WAS terrible last year (more turnovers than assists, if memory serves), his ceiling is limited even if he can learn to take better care of the ball, and he's demonstrated himself to be a pretty poor shooter. Marcus Ginyard is a good perimeter defender, and can even run the point a little, so it'll be good to have him around, but he isn't a scoring threat, especially from outside. Will Graves has some potential as a shooter, but he was abysmal from beyond the arc last year. I have high hopes for Strickland, but who knows how he's going to turn out - heck, no one even knows if he'll play SG as planned or switch to PG and take over for Drew. Basically, we have no sure things in our backcourt - everyone is, at best, a question mark. And with Roy Williams' system, a good point guard is key to success (and a reliable scoring threat from outside is pretty critical too). Final analysis: if enough of our question marks come through for us in a positive way, I could see us contending for the national championship again. But ranking us that high before the season starts is giving too much credit to our unproven guards.