2008 Bill James Projections

[Mephistopheles]

I don't understand the reasoning that a player under 30 must have every season be better than the last. It doesn't work that way for players of any age as a rule.

 

Because more times than not the player is going to improve from season n-1 to season n when hes under 30...any accurate projection model is going to have this happen. Obviously there is regression to the means that cancels this out in crawfords case