Dempster

[Guest]

So if Dempster goes 2/3, he's 85%?

 

That's not too freaking bad. I'll take 6/7 out of my closer any day of the week.

 

Although God Marmol has been awesome in the 7th inning, I still want Dempster closing.

 

When Dempster is jumping into Kendall (should be Soto)'s arms after game 6 of the WS, I"ll take it.

 

huh?

 

I'm saying, I'll take 85% every time. Marmol has been awesome, but I still want Dempter closing. When he's celebrating winning the WS, I'll be happy, but dbags like you will be questioning why 85% Dempster will be out there.

 

Huh? Dbag, why waste a post.

 

 

how is 2/3 85%?

[Guest]

Demp is 7 for 9 in 1 run saves this year(1 of them pitching 1.2 IPs coming in the bases loaded!)

 

8 for 15 in '06

 

12 for 14 in '05.

 

I'd guarantee that 77% and 85% is above average for 1 run save %. Even 54% can't be that far below average I'm guessing.

 

 

54% is pretty bad. That means the closer is giving up a run in every other inning they pitch more or less. I would think a great closer would be around 90% and an average one around 65%.

[apete6]

So if Dempster goes 2/3, he's 85%?

 

That's not too freaking bad. I'll take 6/7 out of my closer any day of the week.

 

Although God Marmol has been awesome in the 7th inning, I still want Dempster closing.

 

When Dempster is jumping into Kendall (should be Soto)'s arms after game 6 of the WS, I"ll take it.

 

huh?

 

I'm saying, I'll take 85% every time. Marmol has been awesome, but I still want Dempter closing. When he's celebrating winning the WS, I'll be happy, but dbags like you will be questioning why 85% Dempster will be out there.

 

Huh? Dbag, why waste a post.

 

 

how is 2/3 85%?

 

Dempster has saved 83 out of 97 save oppurtunities as closer of the Cubs. Nobody claims he's an elite closer, but he's perfectly acceptable.

 

 

Add 2/3 out of that and you have 85/100

 

That's 85%

 

And 2/3 is being pessimistic. So we're either 85 or 86% as a Cub. Not too bad.

[Guest]

oh, that was obvious from your first post? maybe be a little thicker skinned before you start throwing out personal attacks.

[Sammy Sofa]

Demp is 7 for 9 in 1 run saves this year(1 of them pitching 1.2 IPs coming in the bases loaded!)

 

8 for 15 in '06

 

12 for 14 in '05.

 

I'd guarantee that 77% and 85% is above average for 1 run save %. Even 54% can't be that far below average I'm guessing.

 

 

54% is pretty bad. That means the closer is giving up a run in every other inning they pitch more or less. I would think a great closer would be around 90% and an average one around 65%.

 

I don't think anyone is really defending 2006, though that was really a collapse of the entire team, plus you had Dusty using Demp on about the most horrible closing non-schedule possible.

[SouthSideRyan]

Demp is 7 for 9 in 1 run saves this year(1 of them pitching 1.2 IPs coming in the bases loaded!)

 

8 for 15 in '06

 

12 for 14 in '05.

 

I'd guarantee that 77% and 85% is above average for 1 run save %. Even 54% can't be that far below average I'm guessing.

 

 

54% is pretty bad. That means the closer is giving up a run in every other inning they pitch more or less. I would think a great closer would be around 90% and an average one around 65%.

 

Logically it makes sense, but I'm basing it on vaguely remembering a study where it was somewhere in the 50s. I may have imagined it. 90% seems way too high. Even figuring that they're giving up a couple runs every so often in that blown save you've got a miniscule ERA out of that. This is assuming that the runs allowed are normally distributed between different types of saves which may be a dubious assumption.

 

Dempster's at 71% 1 run save% for his Cubs career for those who didn't do the math.

[Guest]

Demp is 7 for 9 in 1 run saves this year(1 of them pitching 1.2 IPs coming in the bases loaded!)

 

8 for 15 in '06

 

12 for 14 in '05.

 

I'd guarantee that 77% and 85% is above average for 1 run save %. Even 54% can't be that far below average I'm guessing.

 

 

54% is pretty bad. That means the closer is giving up a run in every other inning they pitch more or less. I would think a great closer would be around 90% and an average one around 65%.

 

Logically it makes sense, but I'm basing it on vaguely remembering a study where it was somewhere in the 50s. I may have imagined it. 90% seems way too high. Even figuring that they're giving up a couple runs every so often in that blown save you've got a miniscule ERA out of that. This is assuming that the runs allowed are normally distributed between different types of saves which may be a dubious assumption.

 

Dempster's at 71% 1 run save% for his Cubs career for those who didn't do the math.

 

 

88% might be an ERA of 1.00 so that is probably a little high. maybe 80% is a better number for an ERA around 2. Though of course, not all saves start with no outs and nobody on so that might drive the number down.

[apete6]

oh, that was obvious from your first post? maybe be a little thicker skinned before you start throwing out personal attacks.

 

Guarantee that Marmol's run as a closer ends up at or within 2 percentage points of 85%. And I'm thinking Marmol is going to be a great closer. Let's just say he goes 170/200 as a closer in 4 seasons, averaging 42/43 saves/year, everyone will be licking his sack. Just because you're dominant as a reliever doesn't mean you'll be a 95% closer.

[Guest]

So if Dempster goes 2/3, he's 85%?

 

That's not too freaking bad. I'll take 6/7 out of my closer any day of the week.

 

Although God Marmol has been awesome in the 7th inning, I still want Dempster closing.

 

When Dempster is jumping into Kendall (should be Soto)'s arms after game 6 of the WS, I"ll take it.

 

huh?

 

I'm saying, I'll take 85% every time. Marmol has been awesome, but I still want Dempter closing. When he's celebrating winning the WS, I'll be happy, but dbags like you will be questioning why 85% Dempster will be out there.

 

Huh? Dbag, why waste a post.

 

Knock off the insults.

[Mephistopheles]

i never do that kind of stuff. why do people think im hitler.

[CubmanPi]

I personally feel like the role (title?) of closer is way over-rated, and that it shouldn't be reserved for the best reliever. Sometimes, yes the best reliever should be used to get a save, but I think it's a waste of resources to bless someone as the 9th-inning collector of a relatively meaningless stat.

 

HYPOTHETICAL:

 

Say Hill's 7th inning started with a walk, followed by an RBI triple to put the tying run at third with none out, and it's apparent Hill's night needs to end. Now say that Marmol has been the one arbitrarily blessed with the title of closer, and he's fresh and available to pitch. It's absolutely foolish to not give yourself the best chance to maintain the lead, simply because the guy who gives you that chance is supposed to pitch when he can earn a save for the appearance, while Dempster, who isn't always much of a strikeout pitcher, has been the 7th inning guy all year long. Closers don't do you much good if you can't carry the lead into the 9th. I don't suggest a 'closer by committee' situation or anything like that, I suggest using guys who are right for the situation. You know... MANAGING.

 

The philosophy of a closer is the same flawed mindset which gives us such gems as the "prototypical leadoff hitter/shortstop," which is solely responsible for us having ever heard the names Juan Pierre and Neifi Perez. Rather than sit around and hope that baseball managers' status quo will miraculously abandon such stupidity, I'll enjoy the fact that it keeps Dempster locked into his idiotic "role," while it affords Marmol the flexibility to be used when it counts.

 

Dempster should absolutely be the closer on this team, for the exact reason that he's NOT an elite "closer."

[soccer10k]

Let's ignore the fact that Dempster was in a jam because the leadoff hitter got on base on a groundball that hit first base.

 

 

regardless, dempster puts far too many runners on base to be an effective closer with 1 run leads.

 

The bashing he gets from some is above and beyond what he deserves. I'm not a big fan of his but I'd rather have Marmol be the fireman and Howry set up Dempster.

 

I'd rather have marmol in close situations and dempster in not as close. really the cubs just need another marmol. maybe a lefty who doesn't give up walks or homeruns . . .

 

He's now in the Oakland A's system.

 

I'm hoping to see him this weekend.

 

You going to a River Cats game this weekend?

[SouthSideRyan]

Ace reliever stuff

 

This has by far been the best thing Piniella has brought to the table. He's even been quoted as saying sometimes you have to save the game in the early going(After he brought in Marmol in like the 5th or 6th inning. He knows Marmol is his best reliever and he brings him in accordingly.

[badger1679666666]

oh, that was obvious from your first post? maybe be a little thicker skinned before you start throwing out personal attacks.

 

I didn't get it either...

[The Voice of Reason]

Ater getting shelled tonight, Dempster's ERA has now risen to 4.22.

 

I know, I know, it wasn't a save situation - at least is wasn't until Dempster made it one.

 

No matter the situation, good relievers don't get shelled like that.

[Keener98]

Ater getting shelled tonight, Dempster's ERA has now risen to 4.22.

 

I know, I know, it wasn't a save situation - at least is wasn't until Dempster made it one.

 

No matter the situation, good relievers don't get shelled like that.

 

Yea its never happened to guys like Rivera, etc....oh wait yes it has

[windycityfan]

Ater getting shelled tonight, Dempster's ERA has now risen to 4.22.

 

I know, I know, it wasn't a save situation - at least is wasn't until Dempster made it one.

 

No matter the situation, good relievers don't get shelled like that.

 

Tonight was the last straw for me. While the Cards not only started hitting him but Howry as well, Dempster just seem to lose his mojo after the first sign of adversity.

 

Howry and Dempster's roles should be flipped flopped.

[Keener98]

Ater getting shelled tonight, Dempster's ERA has now risen to 4.22.

 

I know, I know, it wasn't a save situation - at least is wasn't until Dempster made it one.

 

No matter the situation, good relievers don't get shelled like that.

 

Tonight was the last straw for me. While the Cards not only started hitting him but Howry as well, Dempster just seem to lose his mojo after the first sign of adversity.

 

Howry and Dempster's roles should be flipped flopped.

 

Yea like he lost it in Houston after they had a guy on 3rd with nobody out, and we lost...oh wait we won that game.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Marmol please.

[bukie]

Even after tonight, Dempster is still the 3rd best reliever on the Cubs, after Marmol and just after Howry.

 

Dempster has still been far above average as relievers go, though. The ERA will fluctuate as a reliever, and he's struggled a few times in a row. But there's no need for a knee-jerk reaction to bury Dempster at this point in the season.

 

Better that he struggles when there's a bit of a cushion, and not when there's a 1-run lead. He's only blown that one once. Twice if you count the 11-inning affair where the offense couldn't buy a run after the 3rd inning.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Howry get the save opportunities for the remainder of the season.

[The Voice of Reason]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Howry get the save opportunities for the remainder of the season.

 

From Vance's mouth to Lou's ears.

[windycityfan]

Ater getting shelled tonight, Dempster's ERA has now risen to 4.22.

 

I know, I know, it wasn't a save situation - at least is wasn't until Dempster made it one.

 

No matter the situation, good relievers don't get shelled like that.

 

Tonight was the last straw for me. While the Cards not only started hitting him but Howry as well, Dempster just seem to lose his mojo after the first sign of adversity.

 

Howry and Dempster's roles should be flipped flopped.

 

Yea like he lost it in Houston after they had a guy on 3rd with nobody out, and we lost...oh wait we won that game.

 

You take a lazy approach to my statement hoping to validate your angle, when in reality he lost one game and almost blew the next one (allowing a single, triple and giving up a walk - bailed out by a one-pitch grounder and two-pitch double play grounder to "win the game").

[hawkeyecub]

Marmol please.

 

I have no idea why people want to take our best reliever and put him in a spot where we don't use him unless we have the lead in the 9th. He's clearly our best fireman to get out of a tough spot with runners on in the 6th-8th.

 

If so, who do you bring in to get out of a tough spot in the 6th-7th in a game? Do you trust Howry, Dempster, Wood or Wuertz to be nearly as successful as Marmol has been?

 

Marmol is more effective and useful in his current role and Dempster has been successful in his role as closer.

Edited September 15, 2007 by hawkeyecub

[windycityfan]

Even after tonight, Dempster is still the 3rd best reliever on the Cubs, after Marmol and just after Howry.

 

Dempster has still been far above average as relievers go, though. The ERA will fluctuate as a reliever, and he's struggled a few times in a row. But there's no need for a knee-jerk reaction to bury Dempster at this point in the season.

 

Better that he struggles when there's a bit of a cushion, and not when there's a 1-run lead. He's only blown that one once. Twice if you count the 11-inning affair where the offense couldn't buy a run after the 3rd inning.

 

While what you've said is spot on, I would not trust this guy pitching the 9th in a playoffs series.

 

Just my opinion.

 

UPDATE - Lou just said nothing will change regarding Dempster and his role. He'd come right out tomorrow should there be a save situation.

 

I'm through with this thread.

Edited September 15, 2007 by windycityfan