Why can't the Cubs win the close ones?

[TheDude]

The Cubs are 0-7 in games decided by 1 or 2 runs. It seems the Cubs are a few plays away from being .500 or better, and they're a better team than the 7-11 record indicates.

 

So what exactly is going on with the team? Bad luck? Poor close game management? Lack of execution in key situations?

 

Many people on the board do not believe in the concept of 'clutch' performing in baseball, so it purely a combination of bad luck and poor management in all 7 games?

[ltb]

small sample size is going on.

[C.C.]

small sample size is going on.

 

Or so we hope!

[NewUserName]

How did the Cubs do in 1 runs games last year? I remember it not being very good or was that in 2005?

[TheDude]

small sample size is going on.

Of coarse it is, but still, 0-7 is very unusual even at this juncture.

[MPrior]

I think it's mostly luck, as a result of a high standard deviation in terms of both our run scoring and our run prevention (i.e., our runs - and our opponents' - come in bunches).

 

The Cubs currently have the third best run differential in the National League, behind the Mets' completely absurd +47 and the Dodgers similarly silly +32. The Cubs, by comparison, are a pretty measly +11, but that's still good for third in the NL and tied for fifth in MLB. The closest competitor in the NL Central is Houston at +4, then Milwaukee at +3. So, while it is a bummer that we seem to get our runs at the wrong times, I'm not as convinced that this team is doomed as some seem to be.

[Fred Hornkohl]

How did the Cubs do in 1 runs games last year? I remember it not being very good or was that in 2005?

 

In 2006.........

 

CUBS are 15-26 in one run games.... 8-15 in two run games

[CubColtPacer]

How did the Cubs do in 1 runs games last year? I remember it not being very good or was that in 2005?

 

In 2006.........

 

CUBS are 15-26 in one run games.... 8-15 in two run games

 

To give a comparison here-the Cubs last year won 43.8 percent of their games not decided by 2 runs or less (43-55)

They won 35.9% of their games that were decided by 1 or 2 runs

 

This year, they are 7-4 in games decided by 3 or more runs (and this counts the extra inning game yesterday, which probably should be lumped in with the 1 and 2 run games)

0-7 in games by 2 or less

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Right now, it seems we're just unlucky. The sample size is a little too small to discern much else at this point. I'm hoping the luck evens out and the Cubs start playing more in line with their pythags. If that happens, we have a good shot at the division.

[UK1679666180]

Inconsistent offense, couple of those game the Cubs scored under 2 runs as well as not scoring runs after the 5th, Howry and Eyre had some bad games as well as Zambrano.

 

This team doesn't have the makeup on offense to do well in close games, they are too dependent on the HR without the ability to get runners on base consistently.

 

In close games, you obviously to do well typically vs. their best.

[Balsa]

Obviously we lack the FIRE and INTENSITY that a winning team needs.

 

We should trade for a proven winner immediately.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

FIRE and INTENSITY

[TruffleShuffle]

because they're the cubs

[Soriano12]

I blame global warming, personally.

[C.C.]

Dusty's fault.

[Soul]

In answer to the original question:

 

Because we suck.

 

Thanks, I'll be here all week.

[abuck1220]

because the two relievers they count on the most in close games are awful.

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

Not quite a fire and intensity post.

 

This team is suffering from Dusty hangover. They dont know how to win the close ones, as evidenced by lack of execution, and this has been a trend for a few years. I believe that Dusty and staff had a, "if you are in the majors you know how to play" philosophy. Dusty's preference for vets and the many comments about "shouldnt have to teach" is part of it.

 

Yesterday I saw Lou grab a player and teach right after an AB. (Theriot I think) I dont ever remember Dusty doing that.

 

Lou also has a "refuse to lose" personality. This team dosent yet give me that feeling. I get the feeling that they are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Losing as well as winning is a mindset. Right now I believe the Cubs as a team have a losing mindset.

[CubinNY]

All the above

[C.C.]

Not quite a fire and intensity post.

 

This team is suffering from Dusty hangover. They dont know how to win the close ones, as evidenced by lack of execution, and this has been a trend for a few years. I believe that Dusty and staff had a, "if you are in the majors you know how to play" philosophy. Dusty's preference for vets and the many comments about "shouldnt have to teach" is part of it.

 

Yesterday I saw Lou grab a player and teach right after an AB. (Theriot I think) I dont ever remember Dusty doing that.

 

Lou also has a "refuse to lose" personality. This team dosent yet give me that feeling. I get the feeling that they are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Losing as well as winning is a mindset. Right now I believe the Cubs as a team have a losing mindset.

 

Right now? The past 99 years...

[RegulusBlue]

small sample size is going on.

 

Not so fast.

 

I would agree with small sample size if we were putting the best players on the field and playing them in a manner that made any sense.

 

For example, letting Ronny hit in the 10th yesterday was atrocious. Playing Floyd continuously is equally as egregious. Putting DeRosa in the OF and hoping for the best is also a problem. Starting Wade Miller ever is another terrible sin, as is using Will Ohman when up or down by less than 5 runs.

 

The truth is that our team isn't very good at all when its mismanaged in this fashion, and the boat is not about to turn around anytime soon as long as piss poor personnel decisions are being made.

[rawaction]

because the two relievers they count on the most in close games are awful.

 

I will agree that luck plays a part in close games. But this is probably a bigger factor. The biggest factor, I would say, is being a bad team.

[A New Era]

In answer to the original question:

 

Because we suck.

 

Thanks, I'll be here all week.

 

You took my damn response. :wink:

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

Not quite a fire and intensity post.

 

This team is suffering from Dusty hangover. They dont know how to win the close ones, as evidenced by lack of execution, and this has been a trend for a few years. I believe that Dusty and staff had a, "if you are in the majors you know how to play" philosophy. Dusty's preference for vets and the many comments about "shouldnt have to teach" is part of it.

 

Yesterday I saw Lou grab a player and teach right after an AB. (Theriot I think) I dont ever remember Dusty doing that.

 

Lou also has a "refuse to lose" personality. This team dosent yet give me that feeling. I get the feeling that they are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Losing as well as winning is a mindset. Right now I believe the Cubs as a team have a losing mindset.

 

Right now? The past 99 years...

 

Because I believe it can change. It wont happen over night, but I dont see Lou putting up with losing if he can do anything about it.

[soccer10k]

small sample size is going on.

 

Hopefully but not necessarily. As I posted in the game thread, the 2006 Cleveland Indian outscored their opponents 870 to 782 last year (pythagorean W/L of 90-72) but finished with a 78-84 record).