Foxsports: Cubs discussing Jones for Jennings/Lugo

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I'd be much more surprised if Jennings regressed back to ERA+ 93 or so than putting up another 120 or next year. I'm pretty sure he had struggled with some minor nagging injuries during his so-so years. Healthy, he's a very very good #3 pitcher.

[craig]

Lets look more closely at the first paragraph. According to Rosenthal, take that for what its worth, the Cubs options are Schmidt and an unnamed "back-of-the-rotation type" guy or one of Lilly, Meche and Batista plus another pitcher acquired via trade.

 

So that means, according to this article anyway, that its either Schmidt and what, Marquis (?) versus Lilly (since they've offered him a contract and we would much rather have him over Meche or Batista) and Westbrook/Jennings.

 

What other possible combinations are there given the Rosenthal choices. Who else would fit into the "back-of-the-rotation type"? For me, I see Meche and Batista as those types of guys, but Rosenthal has them in the group with Lilly, so, who besides Marquis would you put there? And is there anyone besides Westbrook and Jennings who could be considered realistic trade targets?

 

Excellent point. My guess is that Hendry has some basic budgetary limits on what he can do for pitching. I think around $20-23 might be kind of the range we're talking. You can fit Lilly and Meche, or Lilly and Batista combined at under $20. You can maybe fit Schmidt and Marquis (maybe) at not much over $20. Of the Lilly/Padilla/Meche/Jennings/Westbrook dudes, none will go over $10, although jennings or Westbrook certainly could a year out (if Jennings posted another 127-type year, for sure...).

 

I think Jennings and Lilly or Jennings and Meche might well end up outperforming Schmidt plus Kyle Lohse, or Schmidt plus Marquis, or Schmidt plus Rodrigo Lopez from Baltimore.

 

In terms of realistic trade targets, Rodrigo Lopez is one name i've seen. I don't like him at all, woeful 5.90 ERA this past season, and some ugly peripherals. But, he's won 14-15 games for bad Baltimore teams in 3 of last 5 years, and thrown 170-209 innings in four of last 5. His salary and trade value is low enough that you could certainly access a dude like that for Jones. (Unlike Westbrook or Jennings or Blanton, etc., none of whom Jones alone would get even close to getting...),

 

One of the other threads has talked about Jones to Pittsburgh for one of their inexpensive back-end starters.

 

Hendry has often liked Aaron Heilman. I don't see Jones making any sense there, though, having just gotten Alou and Shawn Green.

 

Beats me. But, I think that when you look at how much awful-potential some of the potentia back end starters are, it helps to explain why Hendry may not want to spend way too much on Schmidt. You may lose more with your second bad pickup than you'd gain with Schmidt, relative to the middle-rotation guys.

[nilodnayr]

Outside of Coors, I really think he will be a very good #3.

 

Actually, stats disagree with you. ERA+adjusts for parks Jennings since hes been in the league full time

 

02:108

03:93

04:92

05:94

06:127

 

I like Jennings. I think he has good stuff, as a qualitative observer. (My worthless scouting report.) His 127, which is really high, suggests that he has high potential. His sub-100's the previous 3 years suggests that he has not pitched to his potential.

 

Using those, I'd say 03-05 he's been a #4 starter. 02 he was a #2 or #3+ starter. 06 he was a #1-2 starter. (I think league ERA's are actually lower for relievers, so I assume the average rotation starter would be around 99 or 98, a shade under 100?)

 

My view is that he has the capacity to pitch at a much higher level than as a good #3, even though he doesn't have an established record of having done so past. But, the future is not always the same as the past.

 

Further, I believe his 2005 is somewhat interesting. I recall him beating the Cubs maybe in June or so, entering the game with a horrific ERA, perhaps leading the league in walks. When he dominated the Cubs and they took hardly any walks, it fit in with the "Cubs are hackers, here's a wildman and they don't take any walks" stuff, which is why I remember it. Anyway, my point is that given how badly he started, my guess is that his second half 2005 was quite good, considerably better than 94 and very likely better than 100. So, it may be that he's sustained above-average production for the last year-and-a-half. Which may be as good a predictor for future as what was happening 1.5-4 years ago.

 

He broke his middle finger in July of 05, so he really didn't have much of a second half. In June/July only 4 of his 8 starts were quality starts. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't mind taking a risk on Jennings for 1 year to see if he can repeat his one abberant year, especially if we are giving up Jones. But to extend him in this market could be a huge disaster.

[nilodnayr]

 

Excellent point. My guess is that Hendry has some basic budgetary limits on what he can do for pitching. I think around $20-23 might be kind of the range we're talking. You can fit Lilly and Meche, or Lilly and Batista combined at under $20. You can maybe fit Schmidt and Marquis (maybe) at not much over $20. Of the Lilly/Padilla/Meche/Jennings/Westbrook dudes, none will go over $10, although jennings or Westbrook certainly could a year out (if Jennings posted another 127-type year, for sure...).

 

I think Jennings and Lilly or Jennings and Meche might well end up outperforming Schmidt plus Kyle Lohse, or Schmidt plus Marquis, or Schmidt plus Rodrigo Lopez from Baltimore.

 

In terms of realistic trade targets, Rodrigo Lopez is one name i've seen. I don't like him at all, woeful 5.90 ERA this past season, and some ugly peripherals. But, he's won 14-15 games for bad Baltimore teams in 3 of last 5 years, and thrown 170-209 innings in four of last 5. His salary and trade value is low enough that you could certainly access a dude like that for Jones. (Unlike Westbrook or Jennings or Blanton, etc., none of whom Jones alone would get even close to getting...),

 

One of the other threads has talked about Jones to Pittsburgh for one of their inexpensive back-end starters.

 

Hendry has often liked Aaron Heilman. I don't see Jones making any sense there, though, having just gotten Alou and Shawn Green.

 

Beats me. But, I think that when you look at how much awful-potential some of the potentia back end starters are, it helps to explain why Hendry may not want to spend way too much on Schmidt. You may lose more with your second bad pickup than you'd gain with Schmidt, relative to the middle-rotation guys.

 

I don't understand your math. All reports have Schmidt ending up at 14 or 15M. So that could still leave 8-9M for the second acquired starter. And if we trade away someone we have that salary as well.

[Iceblink]

Work in some 3-way magic where we give the Rockies Jones and Barrett and they help come up with prospects to get David DeJesus in center.

 

Ok, so that's about the only lefty hitting CFer I can find. Let me dream.

 

I've been pining for DeJesus for many months, but losing Barrett to get him completely defeats the purpose.

 

Well, there's little else to trade. Adding a younger, OBP-heavy lefty bat in CF would be a fair swap for Barrett. In my slap-happy scenario above, we'd move Jones and Barrett for Jennings and DeJesus. It's a pipe dream, but that's a net gain, IMO.

[craig]

...My guess is that Hendry has some basic budgetary limits on what he can do for pitching. I think around $20-23 might be kind of the range we're talking. You can fit Lilly and Meche, or Lilly and Batista combined at under $20. You can maybe fit Schmidt and Marquis (maybe) at not much over $20. Of the Lilly/Padilla/Meche/Jennings/Westbrook dudes, none will go over $10, although jennings or Westbrook certainly could a year out (if Jennings posted another 127-type year, for sure...).

 

I don't understand your math. All reports have Schmidt ending up at 14 or 15M. So that could still leave 8-9M for the second acquired starter. And if we trade away someone we have that salary as well.

 

I'm figuring Schmidt at $15.

 

From what Bruce and other sources (including an agent who was quoted) have said, I don't get the feeling that Hendry thinks he can afford both $15 Schmidt AND one of the $8-11 Lilly/Padilla/Meche guys. If he had $25 to spend on additional pitching, without cutting anywhere, I think he'd have been able to go straight for both Schmidt and Lilly etc., without it being an either/or. (One big ticket, or two $10 guys...)

 

I think it's an either/or. And I'm guessing that somehow or other, the net cost increase shoudln't go much past $20, if that.

 

I assume Jennings would be around $7-8, but if you subtract $5 in Jones, then perhaps add a $2 CF to replace Jones, you'd be back at around the budget endpoint that signing two Lilly's will get you.

 

I think early on, Hendry may have hoped Schmidt might come a little cheaper, and that Igawa or Marquis might come cheap enough so that Schmidt plus one of those guys might fit into his budget framework. With the way the prices have gone, though, maybe not.

 

My math was kind of confusing because, in a sense, if you trade for Westbrook or Jennings, Schmidt plus one of those would sum to $23 or so in pitching. That's what I had when I kind of suggested $23 being on the high end. But, I expect you can only go there, as you suggested, if you're trimming significant salary elsewhere, be that Jones or Dempster or whatever.

 

Which wouldn't necessarily happen if you're signing Lilly and Schmidt.

[Vinestal]

Work in some 3-way magic where we give the Rockies Jones and Barrett and they help come up with prospects to get David DeJesus in center.

 

Ok, so that's about the only lefty hitting CFer I can find. Let me dream.

 

I've been pining for DeJesus for many months, but losing Barrett to get him completely defeats the purpose.

 

Well, there's little else to trade. Adding a younger, OBP-heavy lefty bat in CF would be a fair swap for Barrett. In my slap-happy scenario above, we'd move Jones and Barrett for Jennings and DeJesus. It's a pipe dream, but that's a net gain, IMO.

 

The Rockies are set at the catching position, they have Chris Iannetta (really good catching prospect) who played some towards the end of last year, I dont think they would want to block him with Barrett.

[nilodnayr]

I'll take Schmidt and Ohka if you give me 20M. Padilla is the only one out of the second tier that will be a good use of $ assuming Westbrook is off the table.

[abuck1220]

ORLANDO -- Pursuing every possible option, Cubs general manager Jim Hendry called his Colorado Rockies counterpart Dan O'Dowd about the availability of right-hander Jason Jennings.

 

And why not? Jennings, who compiled a 3.78 earned-run average in 32 starts while based at Denver's Coors Field last season, is one year from free agency and seeking a bigger extension than Colorado is offering. He is believed, however, more likely headed to Minnesota or Houston.

 

Hendry believes the Cubs are much more likely to answer their pitching needs on the free-agent market than through trades.

 

According to major-league sources, the Rockies asked the Cubs about left-hander Rich Hill, who is considered an untouchable. Hendry has offered right fielder Jacque Jones and indicated a willingness to deal infielder Ronny Cedeno or some other young pitchers but now believes he'll have to bring a third team into the talks to get a trade done with the Rockies.

 

keep dreaming, danny boy.

[NorthsideAvenger]

ORLANDO -- Pursuing every possible option, Cubs general manager Jim Hendry called his Colorado Rockies counterpart Dan O'Dowd about the availability of right-hander Jason Jennings.

 

And why not? Jennings, who compiled a 3.78 earned-run average in 32 starts while based at Denver's Coors Field last season, is one year from free agency and seeking a bigger extension than Colorado is offering. He is believed, however, more likely headed to Minnesota or Houston.

 

Hendry believes the Cubs are much more likely to answer their pitching needs on the free-agent market than through trades.

 

According to major-league sources, the Rockies asked the Cubs about left-hander Rich Hill, who is considered an untouchable. Hendry has offered right fielder Jacque Jones and indicated a willingness to deal infielder Ronny Cedeno or some other young pitchers but now believes he'll have to bring a third team into the talks to get a trade done with the Rockies.

 

keep dreaming, danny boy.

 

And Hendry should counter by asking for Jeff Francis along with Jennigs, otherwise, O'Dowd should go ahead and back on Hill.

[Balsa]

Looks like Jennings is a dead end.

[Southpaw191679666239]

Looks like Jennings is a dead end.

 

Not necessarily. The article says Hendry might have to involve a third team to get a Jennings deal done. Don't forget he was able to pull not one but two other teams into a deal to get Nomar.

[BigbadB]

O'Dowd asked about Hill, not demanded.

 

Hendry could come up with a package that could net Jennings.

[RynoRules]

Looks like Jennings is a dead end.

 

Doesn't sound like you negotiate much.

 

It's a start - it may not pan out, but let them work through it a bit before you label it a "dead end". Using that philosophy, the Nomar deal never would have gotten done.

[Soul]

Maybe the Rockies get more desperate to trade Jennings during the season, too.

 

 

I does almost sound like the Rockies pulled out the "Rich Hill card" as a way of saying they don't think Hendry's offers are close. But the Rockies don't have the luxury of too much time since Jennings' contract is coming due.

 

So it's hard to say. Certainly nobody can blame them for trying to get the best package for a decent SP.

[soapy]

Rotoworld had a interesting tidbit re: Jennings in their winter meetings preview (mentioned in the winter meetings thread):

 

Possibility: To Cubs for Angel Guzman and RHP Sean Gallagher

[WindyCity]

Rotoworld had a interesting tidbit re: Jennings in their winter meetings preview (mentioned in the winter meetings thread):

 

Possibility: To Cubs for Angel Guzman and RHP Sean Gallagher

 

No thanks -- I'd rather have both Gooz an Gallagher or at least use them to get a more impactful addition to the roster than Jennings.

[abuck1220]

Rotoworld had a interesting tidbit re: Jennings in their winter meetings preview (mentioned in the winter meetings thread):

 

Possibility: To Cubs for Angel Guzman and RHP Sean Gallagher

 

No thanks -- I'd rather have both Gooz an Gallagher or at least use them to get a more impactful addition to the roster than Jennings.

 

yeah, it's not that i love either of those guys that much, but i'd rather use them to get something better than a 1 year rental.

[abuck1220]

they also list jennings for willy taveras as a possibility. there's no way taveras has the same value as those two cub pitchers. taveras is terrible, and i would never, ever, ever trade gooz and gallagher for him, let alone one of them.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would not like dealing Guzman and Gallagher for Jennings, but if the other pitchers are getting snatched up, I might swallow hard and do that deal.

[BigbadB]

That's too much for Jennings. One of them and maybe Marmol or Mateo, but not Guzman and Gallagher.

 

What's the deal with Clint Barmes? Was last year an off year because of injury, or is he really not all that good? The Rockies appear to be set with Tulowitzki at SS, which pushes Barmes out of a starting gig. Barmes seems like he has more upside than Izturis.

[WrigleyinEngland]

I'm afraid most teams will ask the cubs for more than we should give....why??? Look no further than Nolasco,Pinto and Mitre for the 1 yr rental of JP. I guess teams are relying on Hendry to overpay .....again.

[BigbadB]

Izturis would make for a nice backup/protection at SS in Coors Field behind Tulowitzki.

 

Jones, Izturis and Marshall (Cubs pick up some of the salary) for Jennings and Barmes. Sign Schmidt, Lugo to play SS and Lofton to play CF.

[ThePenguin11]

Izturis would make for a nice backup/protection at SS in Coors Field behind Tulowitzki.

 

Jones, Izturis and Marshall (Cubs pick up some of the salary) for Jennings and Barmes. Sign Schmidt, Lugo to play SS and Lofton to play CF.

 

Sold. Where do I sign?

[Guest]

I'll say this again: I strongly believe that this will be Guzman's breakout year. His ceiling is tremendous and I am not willing to trade him (let alone him and Gallagher) for a pitcher at the Jennings / Westbrook level.