Foxsports: Cubs discussing Jones for Jennings/Lugo

[killthegoat06]

I feel obligated to post this yet again.

 

Jones >> Lugo >>>> Izturis

 

Lugo OPS+

 

06:94 (122 in TB)

05:105

04:94

 

Jones OPS+

 

06:107

05:99

04:90

 

Jone's 3 year OPS+ (straight) average is 1 point higher than Lugo's and Lugo's is 27 points higher than Izturis'. To be fair, you'd have to add 50 more > to the Lugo/Izturis comparison. Of course, Lugo will cost nearly as much as both Jones and Izturis combined, so that needs to be considered.

 

After looking into the #s I don't really think that if we can get something decent for Jones, it would be so horrible to replace his production with Lugo, especially when you take into consideration the predicament we will be in next offseason at SS if we don't.

 

Your fancy stats just reinforced my point. Jones is a much better option for CF than Lugo, who is an extremely better option at SS than Izturis. Lugo will not bring enough production to warrant the 3-5M that he'll cost more than Jones.

 

But he will surely be worth the 3M that he'll cost more than Izturis in 08. You also have to factor in who we could get for Jones and that we will have to pick up Izturis' option in 08. On a straight production basis, Lugo and Jones are about equal.

 

Barrett is not a #5 hitter on a world series contender.

 

Is your argument that Barrett isn't and Jones is?

 

Barrett's last 3 year OPS+

 

06:121

05:113

04:105

 

He outpaced Jones by an average of 15 points a year.

 

My argument was that Jones is better than Lugo. I just implied it poorly.

[nilodnayr]

 

Barrett is not a #5 hitter on a world series contender.

 

Obligatory Cardinals reference:

 

Barrett's OPS was 40 points higher than the Card's production from the 5 hole last year.

[nilodnayr]

 

Barrett is not a #5 hitter on a world series contender.

 

Is your argument that Barrett isn't and Jones is?

 

Barrett's last 3 year OPS+

 

06:121

05:113

04:105

 

He outpaced Jones by an average of 15 points a year.

 

My argument was that Jones is better than Lugo. I just implied it poorly.

 

What is your point with mentioning Barrett?????

[killthegoat06]

 

Barrett is not a #5 hitter on a world series contender.

 

Is your argument that Barrett isn't and Jones is?

 

Barrett's last 3 year OPS+

 

06:121

05:113

04:105

 

He outpaced Jones by an average of 15 points a year.

 

My argument was that Jones is better than Lugo. I just implied it poorly.

 

What is your point with mentioning Barrett?????

 

Forget about it. It was a bad argument.

[Danny82]

Such a move could lead to the Cubs' signing of free agent Julio Lugo to play center. Alfonso Soriano presumably would play left, and the Cubs would need to figure out right.

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6226820

 

Yeah, sign me up for JJ for JJ.

 

What happened to Murton, do they not know that he's on our roster?

 

I didn't even notice that part. I'm assuming such a series of events would leave the lineup looking like:

 

Soriano

Lugo

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

That is not something I'd like to see.

 

I don't mind it if our rotation is:

 

Z

Schmidt

Jennings

Hill

Prior/Miller

[nilodnayr]

 

What is your point with mentioning Barrett?????

 

Forget about it. It was a bad argument.

 

We will just have to agree....to agree :)

[Iceblink]

Work in some 3-way magic where we give the Rockies Jones and Barrett and they help come up with prospects to get David DeJesus in center.

 

Ok, so that's about the only lefty hitting CFer I can find. Let me dream.

[nilodnayr]

I'd love for some one to give me a really good reason why we need a lefty. I guess we don't want to be succeptable to all those ROOGYs. And man, if we face a tough righty, those one or two lefties in the lineup are sure going to save us.

[NorthsideAvenger]

One thing for sure, the winter meetings will not be boring for the Cubs.

[nilodnayr]

One thing for sure, the winter meetings will not be boring for the Cubs.

 

for shizzle

[Rob]

Such a move could lead to the Cubs' signing of free agent Julio Lugo to play center. Alfonso Soriano presumably would play left, and the Cubs would need to figure out right.

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6226820

 

Yeah, sign me up for JJ for JJ.

 

What happened to Murton, do they not know that he's on our roster?

 

I didn't even notice that part. I'm assuming such a series of events would leave the lineup looking like:

 

Soriano

Lugo

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

That is not something I'd like to see.

 

I don't mind it if our rotation is:

 

Z

Schmidt

Jennings

Hill

Prior/Miller

 

Westbrook > Jennings

 

Shoot for the stars, man.

[NorthsideAvenger]

One thing for sure, the winter meetings will not be boring for the Cubs.

 

for shizzle

 

Fo sho, my brotha....

[nilodnayr]

Such a move could lead to the Cubs' signing of free agent Julio Lugo to play center. Alfonso Soriano presumably would play left, and the Cubs would need to figure out right.

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6226820

 

Yeah, sign me up for JJ for JJ.

 

What happened to Murton, do they not know that he's on our roster?

 

I didn't even notice that part. I'm assuming such a series of events would leave the lineup looking like:

 

Soriano

Lugo

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

That is not something I'd like to see.

 

I don't mind it if our rotation is:

 

Z

Schmidt

Jennings

Hill

Prior/Miller

 

Westbrook > Jennings

 

Shoot for the stars, man.

 

Gotta add a few more >s in there.

[Danny82]

Actually, I disagree.

 

I prefer Jennings.

 

Outside of Coors, I really think he will be a very good #3.

[jjgman21]

Work in some 3-way magic where we give the Rockies Jones and Barrett and they help come up with prospects to get David DeJesus in center.

 

Ok, so that's about the only lefty hitting CFer I can find. Let me dream.

 

I've been pining for DeJesus for many months, but losing Barrett to get him completely defeats the purpose.

[nilodnayr]

Actually, I disagree.

 

I prefer Jennings.

 

Outside of Coors, I really think he will be a very good #3.

 

Actually, stats disagree with you.

 

ERA+adjusts for parks

 

Jennings since hes been in the league full time

 

02:108

03:93

04:92

05:94

06:127

[CubsWin]

Cubs and more Cubs

If the Cubs sign Schmidt, the other pitcher they acquire likely would be a less expensive back-of-the-rotation type. Another possibility would be to sign one pitcher from a group that includes left-hander Ted Lilly and right-handers Gil Meche and Miguel Batista, then trade for another.

 

The Cubs have discussed acquiring Rockies right-hander Jason Jennings for right fielder Jacque Jones, who would play center in Colorado. Such a move could lead to the Cubs' signing of free agent Julio Lugo to play center. Alfonso Soriano presumably would play left, and the Cubs would need to figure out right.

 

The Cubs have maintained interest in signing Lugo to a multi-year deal even while increasing their pursuit of starting pitchers. Lugo likely would return to the infield in 2008 to clear a spot for top outfield prospect Felix Pie. The Cubs have an option on shortstop Cesar Izturis for '08. Second baseman Mark DeRosa, who recently signed a three-year deal, can play other positions.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6226820

 

Yeah, sign me up for JJ for JJ.

Lets look more closely at the first paragraph. According to Rosenthal, take that for what its worth, the Cubs options are Schmidt and an unnamed "back-of-the-rotation type" guy or one of Lilly, Meche and Batista plus another pitcher acquired via trade.

 

So that means, according to this article anyway, that its either Schmidt and what, Marquis (?) versus Lilly (since they've offered him a contract and we would much rather have him over Meche or Batista) and Westbrook/Jennings.

 

What other possible combinations are there given the Rosenthal choices. Who else would fit into the "back-of-the-rotation type"? For me, I see Meche and Batista as those types of guys, but Rosenthal has them in the group with Lilly, so, who besides Marquis would you put there? And is there anyone besides Westbrook and Jennings who could be considered realistic trade targets?

[NorthsideAvenger]

What other possible combinations are there given the Rosenthal choices. Who else would fit into the "back-of-the-rotation type"? For me, I see Meche and Batista as those types of guys, but Rosenthal has them in the group with Lilly, so, who besides Marquis would you put there? And is there anyone besides Westbrook and Jennings who could be considered realistic trade targets?

 

Maybe Joe Blanton of Oakland. Matt Clement seems to fit that mold, an expensive as it may be. Other guys could fit the mold are Aaron Cook, Steve Trachsel, Kris Benson, Jake Westbrook (<---yes, yes, I know Shapiro's comment, but he IS available, wheter Shapiro admits it or not) Jon Lieber, I believe those are kind of names Rosenthal is that fit into the "back end of the rotation.."

 

So given that...which is better:

 

Schmidt and one of Meche/Marquis/Westbrook

 

or

 

Lilly and Jennings?

[NorthsideAvenger]

Double post, sorry.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Will Clement pitch at all in 07?

[davearm]

What other possible combinations are there given the Rosenthal choices. Who else would fit into the "back-of-the-rotation type"? For me, I see Meche and Batista as those types of guys, but Rosenthal has them in the group with Lilly, so, who besides Marquis would you put there? And is there anyone besides Westbrook and Jennings who could be considered realistic trade targets?

 

Maybe Joe Blanton of Oakland. Matt Clement seems to fit that mold, an expensive as it may be. Other guys could fit the mold are Aaron Cook, Steve Trachsel, Kris Benson, Jake Westbrook (<---yes, yes, I know Shapiro's comment, but he IS available, wheter Shapiro admits it or not) Jon Lieber, I believe those are kind of names Rosenthal is that fit into the "back end of the rotation.."

 

So given that...which is better:

 

Schmidt and one of Meche/Marquis/Westbrook

 

or

 

Lilly and Jennings?

I'm surprised that with all the potential combinations, there doesn't seem to be anyone (but me) with Westbrook *and* Jennings as their first choice.

 

Trade for 'em both, and pass on the overpriced FAs.

 

For Jennings, build something around Jones and a young pitcher

For Westbrook, give Marshall, Ohman, Dempster. Try and add Pagan for Michaels.

 

That permits maximum flexibility and minimum commitment for 2008 and beyond. Use 2007 to evaluate both, along with alternatives like Guzman, Gallagher, Veal, Marmol, etc. Depending on how things play out, this time next year you're working to re-sign one or both (along with Miller), or moving them aside to make room for a kid or two.

 

Lilly, Meche, etc. you're stuck with longterm regardless of how they and others perform.

 

For CF, find a way to get a 1-year guy like Crisp, Church, Bradley, etc. that actually IS a CF.

[rawaction]

What other possible combinations are there given the Rosenthal choices. Who else would fit into the "back-of-the-rotation type"? For me, I see Meche and Batista as those types of guys, but Rosenthal has them in the group with Lilly, so, who besides Marquis would you put there? And is there anyone besides Westbrook and Jennings who could be considered realistic trade targets?

 

Maybe Joe Blanton of Oakland. Matt Clement seems to fit that mold, an expensive as it may be. Other guys could fit the mold are Aaron Cook, Steve Trachsel, Kris Benson, Jake Westbrook (<---yes, yes, I know Shapiro's comment, but he IS available, wheter Shapiro admits it or not) Jon Lieber, I believe those are kind of names Rosenthal is that fit into the "back end of the rotation.."

 

So given that...which is better:

 

Schmidt and one of Meche/Marquis/Westbrook

 

or

 

Lilly and Jennings?

I'm surprised that with all the potential combinations, there doesn't seem to be anyone (but me) with Westbrook *and* Jennings as their first choice.

 

Trade for 'em both, and pass on the overpriced FAs.

 

For Jennings, build something around Jones and a young pitcher

For Westbrook, give Marshall, Ohman, Dempster. Try and add Pagan for Michaels.

 

That permits maximum flexibility and minimum commitment for 2008 and beyond. Use 2007 to evaluate both, along with alternatives like Guzman, Gallagher, Veal, Marmol, etc. Depending on how things play out, this time next year you're working to re-sign one or both (along with Miller), or moving them aside to make room for a kid or two.

 

Lilly, Meche, etc. you're stuck with longterm regardless of how they and others perform.

 

That's what I think too. Meche, Lilly, and even Padilla and Schmidt give you the potential to be in a really crappy contract in 2008-2010. Westbrook and Jennings are both FAs, but the Cubs would have exclusive negotiating rights with either if they wanted them back. There's really nothing wrong with a short-term deal for a pitcher. Granted, it does depend what you would have to give up for them, but I'd give up more to get them than a 1-year rental hitter. Short-term deals with pitchers are actually a GOOD thing.

[Ivy Walls]

If you sign Lugo, what are Boston's options at SS?

 

We trade Jones, Izturis, Murton and Howry for Manny Ramirez (as Boston has signed JD and will have an OF), this can be done, and then go and sign Lofton for CF.

 

Cubs would then have Lugo at SS, Soriano in RF, Ramirez in LF and Lofton CF (until Pie shows up). You could then platoon Pagan in LF in late innings. Lugo/DeRosa/Theriot would be a solid middle infield platoon.

 

I then would sign Luis Gonzalez for reserve PH/OF (for Manny) and then Joe Randa for PH/3B/1B

 

That leaves a bench of Theriot, Pagan, Gonzalez, Randa (allows Soriano to play 2B in a pinch) DeRosa could move over to SS, give Randa or Luis , and then sign Fisk C from Washington who can play the OF/1B and catch who bats left and Barajas C from Texas.

 

Leaving one more acquisition (a SP) trade Barrett and Ohman for Jennings at CO.

 

The team would then look like:

 

Manny Ramirez LF(Gonzalez), Lofton CF(Pagan) Soriano RF(Fisk/Gonzalez)

D-Lee 1B(Fisk) DeRosa 2B(Theriot/Soriano) Lugo SS(Cedeno/DeRosa) Aramas Ramirez 3B(Randa) Blanco(Barajas/Fisk)

 

SP Zambrano-Hill-Lilly?-Jennings?-Prior et all

RP Dempster-Wood-Eyre-Cotts-Wilson?-Rapada-Wuertz

[Shilzzz]

coors is NOT a hitters park anymore.

[craig]

Outside of Coors, I really think he will be a very good #3.

 

Actually, stats disagree with you. ERA+adjusts for parks Jennings since hes been in the league full time

 

02:108

03:93

04:92

05:94

06:127

 

I like Jennings. I think he has good stuff, as a qualitative observer. (My worthless scouting report.) His 127, which is really high, suggests that he has high potential. His sub-100's the previous 3 years suggests that he has not pitched to his potential.

 

Using those, I'd say 03-05 he's been a #4 starter. 02 he was a #2 or #3+ starter. 06 he was a #1-2 starter. (I think league ERA's are actually lower for relievers, so I assume the average rotation starter would be around 99 or 98, a shade under 100?)

 

My view is that he has the capacity to pitch at a much higher level than as a good #3, even though he doesn't have an established record of having done so past. But, the future is not always the same as the past.

 

Further, I believe his 2005 is somewhat interesting. I recall him beating the Cubs maybe in June or so, entering the game with a horrific ERA, perhaps leading the league in walks. When he dominated the Cubs and they took hardly any walks, it fit in with the "Cubs are hackers, here's a wildman and they don't take any walks" stuff, which is why I remember it. Anyway, my point is that given how badly he started, my guess is that his second half 2005 was quite good, considerably better than 94 and very likely better than 100. So, it may be that he's sustained above-average production for the last year-and-a-half. Which may be as good a predictor for future as what was happening 1.5-4 years ago.