Ivy Walls

whomever the Cubs play in the NLDS they are going to win in either a sweep or 4-1.... This is the best team in the NL since June 20th and tied for the best since June 1st. The question will be how they play at the next level.

My father knew we could get tickets on the day of the game late on Saturday morning, he was right less than 12,000 people showed up where buying grandstand seats we could eventually move down to the box seats. He took my brother who was just 12 and more interested in the venders faire than the game. I was 15 and had just finished playing baseball competitively in Colt League. Pappas was in command, but the Padres had a poor lineup with only two players of any threat, Pappas was not dominant but seemed efficient. The Cubs jumped out to an early 2-R lead in the first inning with singles by Cardinal and Hickman driving in runs. Early on Padres hit a couple of liners at people. As the game wore on Pappas got better with K's and lazy fly balls, it was about the 5th inning that my father and I gave each other a look, then as Pappas got through the 6th the ground began to get on their seats. It was then my brother looking up from a Santo pizza or something blurted out that "hey there is a no-hitter going on!" As the Andy Frain began to scatter we moved down into what was the club boxes behind the Padres dugout. The 7th Pappas got an easy pop up, another K and an easy grounder to 1B.....now the crowd was really getting excited. The 8th inning Pappas was facing the bigger hitters, he got Colbert to ground out to Kessenger, big Gaston struck out and an easy come-backer to the mound..... Cubs then exploded for 4 runs so the game was out of reach. The 9th my father got us up again and found 3 seats about 4 rows behind the on deck circle, the crowd was on top of the plate all around. Each pitch was excruciating, Then a Padres hit a liner into CF but what a catch by Billy North. Kendall's father then hit a easy grounder to Kessenger and there was 2 outs....Naturally there was a pinch hitter..... Not only was ball 4 a horrible call but also ball 2....in fact we were all over Froemming because if he had called ball 2 a strike Pappas strikes him out at 2-2.......When Froemming blew the call my father among other adults were so angry that the profanity was extreme....Cubs sent security down the aisles but the next guy basically hit a can a corn and the game was over. Five years ago I sent Pappas my scorecard and he signed it.

Piniella has done what a manager can do, control who plays and when they play. The other day when DeRosa went 5 for 5 and the game winning hit he said in an interview that the club is really excited and he just hoped Lou will have him in the lineup tomorrow. Imagine that...DeRosa in the midst of a 10 for 10 streak and he is hoping Lou is playing him tomorrow. Now the only starters that are assured regular have been Soriano, Lee & Ramirez, naturally but lou has sat Rami regularly. You can say the next tier has been DeRosa, Theriot and now Jones, but only since July 1st or so. Fontenot pushed DeRosa for a while. After that the next tier has been Kendall and Floyd but now Soto is supplanting Kendall and Floyd is as fragile as glass. Murton seems to be getting his hits now that he is spot starting. But few players outside of Soriano, Ramirez and Lee are sure they are playing the next day. BTW, Cedeno got another RBI hit today, this is the third in his third straight appearance. Just thought I would mention it. Oh and Soto has a 1.281 OPS, think he should start tomorrow?

Cubs are 12-13 against lefties since June 1st, 5-2 since August 26th, they are hitting left handers and tomorrow they will mash this AAA starter again.

challenge...a win tonight and tomorrow would put them 76 losses with 8 to to play....tipping them back towards a straight .500 record. By Thursday this whole affair could be over if the Cubs take care of business.

What separates Piniella and other top managers is they are a step ahead of the rest of the league and fans. Lou is managing the team as if they are going to the playoffs, the only way to manage, so he is riding his veterans and insisting on those others in roles do their job. in the playoffs Z and Lilly will be asked to pitch on three days rest anyway...so he is seeing what he's got and this way he has both Trachsel and Marshall ready for a long relief anyway.

everything was going well there until the dempster starting part Dempster approached the Cubs during the year and a promise was made, his arm has recovered and he can be a strong middle of a rotation starter...Using Marshall as trade along with Murton or Jones and Ohman could produce Hawpe or even Abreu.

Brewers will reasonably win 2/3 with Cincinnati, win 2/3 @ Houston (they are 11-4 against the 'Stros), lose 3/4 to Atlanta, beat StL 3/3 and split with SD....total 10-7 Thus the Cubs need to go 10-6 and have a nervous end of the month.... 85-77-CHC, 84-78-Milw, although I think the Cubs do better, Win 3/4 against StL, 2/3 against Cincinnati, 2/3 Pittsburgh, 2/3 against Florida and 2/3 against Cincinnati 11-5...86-76... Cubs reach 86 in Cinci full of Cub fans 9/29...while Milwaukee reaches 84 that night also, SD wins the final game for the WC by one game over surging CO. Baseball is estatic as two races come down to the wire.

Whether the Cubs make the playoffs or not is immaterial to the new owners and their aim to the team except that the owners [hopefully] are more pointed to making the Cubs a perennial winner. Now this year it comes down to Piniella and staff finding a way to win 10-11-12, 13 or more improbable 14 games. 10 probably gets us in a one-game playoff with Milwaukee, 11 either wins or at the outset is another playoff, 12 probably wins the division outright with a game in reserve, and 13 more likely and 14 they clinch with 3 games to spare. Next year the Cubs have some decisions to make. First is whether getting a RF'er or force Soriano to play RF and get a LF'er. Next is to make a decision at catcher, (probably Soto and another veteran), and then CF. I think Theriot is the SS for 2 more years and DeRosa at 2B. I think Cubs go with Pie & Soto in the middle with two veterans as backup. Cubs also need to move their payroll to $130M. I think getting a new GM is wasteful, the moves are self evident, Cubs have Marshall or Hill to trade, Murton, Jones, Blanco, Ohman, Eyre, Cedeno. I think they resign Dempster as a starter and move Marmol, Howry up with Wuertz, Wood as the main four with Shark and possibly Veal coming up with the Cubs finding a LOOGY.

Marmol 48 AP....55.2-IP 5-1, 13-hlds, 1-save. Howry 65-AP, 67-IP 17-hlds 7-saves, 5-7 Wuertz 64-AP, 64-IP 8-hlds 0-saves 2-3 Ohman 49-AP 32.2-IP 12-hlds 1-save 1-4 Eyre 45-AP 44.1-IP 4-Hlds 0-saves 1-1 too bad Guzman is not well Guzman 12-AP (3-GS), 30.1-IP 0-1 (1-blown save) Dempster 53-AP 54-IP, 2-blsave, 25 saves, 2-4 record. Wood 12-AP, 13.2-IP 0-1 maybe this is why they are moving Marshall to the pen for a few weeks and possibly why Trachsel could also move there in the post season

this year Cubs lost big... 7/27 to StL and lost the next game 5-4 to Cincinnati (Hill pitched) 8/02 to Phila and then lost the next game to NYM 6-2 (Z pitched) 8/11 to CO and then lost again 6-3 in the same series (Marshall pitched) 5/31 to Houston 6-1 and then won 4-3 the next day (Marquis pitched) First half (after June) 6/09 Atl lost 9-5 and then lost the next game 5-4 (Hill pitched) 6/17 lost 11-3 to SD and won at Texas 5-4 (Marshall pitched) 07/04 lost 6-0 to Was and won the next day 4-2 (Marshall pitched) This is why a veteran was acquired even a 5th starter veteran. Tomorrow Cubs will need to on their A game and take on a tired LAD team and win a close game and even the series.

Sean Marshall has done his job quite well as a bottom of a rotation starter, albeit averaging just over 5-IP but he is 25 years old and showing wear and tear. Over the next three weeks the Cubs will play 19 games in 18 days...skipping Marshall one start and having him adjust to a long relief where Piniella can pull a starter early with Gallagher also ready is a big advantage, but then setting him up for the DH in StL us huge. Trachsel is a better 5th starter right now and the bet is that a 36 year old will focus in on 5 starts remaining.

Ohman is recalled and put on verbal probation, if he performs as a LOOGY and middle reliever he is respected and accepted. Soto is called up and will even get some starts plus some PH opportunities, a hot September and he could go with the playoffs. Cedeno is recalled and gets a few spot starts resting Theriot in the remaining 19 game stretch in the 18 days. Pignatiello, another LOOGY but he will have to carry the pink bag. Patterson, only for that periodic pinch running situation especially when the time is that Ward and Floyd get back to back hits in the late innings. Because of Trachsel I think Gallagher gets a nice pat on the back, Fox is told to keep prepared and eventually if Pagan is healthy he is taken off the DL.

Always take a chance on genuine talent and pass on marginal talent. What is Wood's upside? Each week he pitches he gains confidence and it he has turned the corner physically he will continue to be ever more effective. Come on how many of you thought Marmol was valuable after last year's rookie performance....none of you......but he has talent... Wood has talent to develop into a powerful set up man next year and learn the reliever game and could possibly turn into a closer....that is talent...

That schedule reminds me of the 2004 Cubs, who had no days off for about the last month of the season (longer than normally allowed under the CBA) because of having to reschedule an entire series against Florida due to a hurricane. I always thought the Cubs were burned out by the last week of the season and that was one of the reasons for blowing the Wild Card. Hopefully the schedule will have a similar effect on the Cardinals. They don't have the starting pitching and team defense to sustain that kind of pace....basically the Cardinals have to win 85 games to have a chance of tying the Cubs....(who can win 86 games by taking all the series's down the stretch except StL)... To win 21 games the Cards have to go 11-5 against the (16) non contenders they face outside of resurgent Cincinnati (meaning imploding Milwaukee, plus Pitts & Houston). Then they have to go 10-8 against AZ, Phil, Chic, NY...Cinc... Two swings will spell Cardinals fate as a contender... 7 games traveling between AZ-Chi-Cinc on the road....I say the best they can expect is 3-4 (but 2-5 might be reality). That would mean they would have to win either 7 out of 11 against Phil(3) NY(1) Chic(4) Cinc(3)...one on the road....let us say they lose that other make up game in NY....that means they have to win 7 of 10 against Phil, Chi, Cinci or take all series with just one loss....all that to make 85 wins! Worse than the Blues Brothers leaving the resort wearing sunglasses.