Matsuzaka: Red Sox Win w/ $51.1M Bid

[Mark Priors Calves]

Hendry was making the rounds on the radio yesterday and I caught his interview with Mac, Jurko, and Harry. He was asked about acquiring new starting pitchers for next year. He specific said, "We'll look at the free agent market, trade possibilities and overseas." Not surprised with the first two, but definitely with the third. Then he said "obviously" many times.

[Guest]

I want Daisuke. He'd be my #1 target this offseason.

 

What's your bid Tim?

It depends on the accounting. Can I amortize the bid money over the duration of the 6 years he'd be under my control (i.e. - the expected life of the asset)?

 

I'd probably go $24M, then consider his salary to start off with an extra $4M in each year. It is probably foolish to assume that any pitcher is going to pitch for six years, though.

[RyCubsFan]

So what's the timeline on this? When are the bids due? When will the winning bid be announced? Anyone?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think it will be after the World Series.

[UMFan83]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, I don't feel like going through 8 pages, but using Tim's guesstimate bid and salary, how does that affect the Cubs payroll? $28 million or $4 million? If the latter, where does the remaining $24 million come into play in terms of FA signings etc.

[1908]

I think it will be after the World Series.

Yes, after the World Series here and the Japan Series there. And it could happen early in the off-season, or a bit later, too.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Bids will be submitted after Matsuzaka is officially posted (late November). 40 days later, we'll have a winner for the rights to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka. I think the winner gets 30 days to negotiate with Matsuzaka. If there is no agreement reached, he has to pitch the next full season in Japan.

[davearm]

Bids will be submitted after Matsuzaka is officially posted (late November). 40 days later, we'll have a winner for the rights to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka. I think the winner gets 30 days to negotiate with Matsuzaka. If there is no agreement reached, he has to pitch the next full season in Japan.

I believe bids are due back in *4* days, not 40. The article that said 40 was a typo. The bid process should play out quickly.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Bids will be submitted after Matsuzaka is officially posted (late November). 40 days later, we'll have a winner for the rights to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka. I think the winner gets 30 days to negotiate with Matsuzaka. If there is no agreement reached, he has to pitch the next full season in Japan.

I believe bids are due back in *4* days, not 40. The article that said 40 was a typo. The bid process should play out quickly.

 

Yeah, 40 seems high. :?

[CubFanPhilly]

I want Daisuke. He'd be my #1 target this offseason.

 

What's your bid Tim?

It depends on the accounting. Can I amortize the bid money over the duration of the 6 years he'd be under my control (i.e. - the expected life of the asset)?

 

I'd probably go $24M, then consider his salary to start off with an extra $4M in each year. It is probably foolish to assume that any pitcher is going to pitch for six years, though.

 

I might go as high as $21M, just on the theory that someone else will go $20M, but I think $25M-$30M is a bluff. At some point you're better off signing Zito AND Schmidt vs. Matsuzaka just to hedge the injury risk.

 

That woud make my guesstimate of the total cost:

 

6 yrs / roughly $72 mil (7,7,7,8,10,12+21 posting fee)

 

A gamble, but it's fairly clear he's the best available starter.

[jtownie]

What happens if the two highest teams bidding put in the same bid? Doubtful it happens as most teams will probably not hold onto a whole number, like 20M and instead bid like 20.34M.

[1908]

What happens if the two highest teams bidding put in the same bid?

In that highly unlikely event, I believe the team that placed the bid first wins, but I'll try to double check that.

[Jazz]

If you're Hendry, what is the highest you think the tribune will allow you to bid?

[A New Era]

If you're Hendry, what is the highest you think the tribune will allow you to bid?

 

Maybe $25 if they REALLY want him. $18 if they maybe want him. .

[Mephistopheles]

Like Tim said, it depends on the financing.

[CubFanPhilly]

Like Tim said, it depends on the financing.

 

(forgive the nitpick)

 

It's the accounting treatment more than the financing. The Trib cares about the impact on earnings per share. The cash is almost meaningless. My guess is that the posting fee would be treated as a prepaid expense and amortized over the life of the contract. That might mean 3-4 years rather than the full six years the Cubs would control him.

[Mephistopheles]

and that's why my majors are economics and mathematics...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

and that's why my majors are economics and mathematics...

 

Welcome to the club. 8-)

[Mephistopheles]

It's an exclusive club. Granted I go to a small private college in Texas (just over 1,000 students) but there are an average of 1 economic majors each year and an average of 4 or 5 mathematics majors each year.

[Bruno7481]

I just hope that if they do submit a bid, that they have done their scouting/homework.

 

That is an awful lot of money to invest.

 

We went through this a few years back with Kaz Matsui.

[Soriano12]

We went through this a few years back with Kaz Matsui.

 

Didn't realize Matsui played for the Cubs.

[WrigleyField 22]

If you're Hendry, what is the highest you think the tribune will allow you to bid?

 

Maybe $25 if they REALLY want him. $18 if they maybe want him. .

 

For 25 bucks i'll pay the bid myself. Heck I'll throw in another $10

[Bruno7481]

We went through this a few years back with Kaz Matsui.

 

Didn't realize Matsui played for the Cubs.

 

Your name fits you well :lol:

 

Point being this, there were many wanting the Cubs to get involved in the bidding process with Matsui and were disappointed when the Cubs didn't. Turns out it was the right move.

 

This guy looks great, if the Cubs somehow end up with him I hope he truly is.

[Soriano12]

We went through this a few years back with Kaz Matsui.

 

Didn't realize Matsui played for the Cubs.

 

Your name fits you well :lol:

 

Point being this, there were many wanting the Cubs to get involved in the bidding process with Matsui and were disappointed when the Cubs didn't. Turns out it was the right move.

 

This guy looks great, if the Cubs somehow end up with him I hope he truly is.

 

I think the Mets recovered fine from that mistake.

[Bruno7481]

We went through this a few years back with Kaz Matsui.

 

Didn't realize Matsui played for the Cubs.

 

Your name fits you well :lol:

 

Point being this, there were many wanting the Cubs to get involved in the bidding process with Matsui and were disappointed when the Cubs didn't. Turns out it was the right move.

 

This guy looks great, if the Cubs somehow end up with him I hope he truly is.

 

I think the Mets recovered fine from that mistake.

 

Again, your missing my point. I don't care how the Mets recovered.

 

The question is Japanese talent and your ability to evaluate it and project how they will face against major league competition in the U.S.

 

That is a lot of money, I just hope if it is the Cubs they have done enough research and scouting to have a pretty good idea how he will adjust.