Matsuzaka: Red Sox Win w/ $51.1M Bid

[Soriano12]

I'd rather the Cubs take a shot at a high-risk high reward type player like Daisuke vs. overpaying for garbage(ie..Ted Lilly, Gil Meche) like they always do.

[Guest]

I want Daisuke. He'd be my #1 target this offseason.

 

What's your bid Tim?

It depends on the accounting. Can I amortize the bid money over the duration of the 6 years he'd be under my control (i.e. - the expected life of the asset)?

 

I'd probably go $24M, then consider his salary to start off with an extra $4M in each year. It is probably foolish to assume that any pitcher is going to pitch for six years, though.

 

I might go as high as $21M, just on the theory that someone else will go $20M, but I think $25M-$30M is a bluff. At some point you're better off signing Zito AND Schmidt vs. Matsuzaka just to hedge the injury risk.

 

That woud make my guesstimate of the total cost:

 

6 yrs / roughly $72 mil (7,7,7,8,10,12+21 posting fee)

 

A gamble, but it's fairly clear he's the best available starter.

Thing is, you're likely to be able to bail on it after three years if it isn't working. With Zito, I'm guessing you'll be in for at least 4 and most likely 5 years.

[Guest]

We went through this a few years back with Kaz Matsui.

 

Didn't realize Matsui played for the Cubs.

 

Your name fits you well :lol:

 

Point being this, there were many wanting the Cubs to get involved in the bidding process with Matsui and were disappointed when the Cubs didn't. Turns out it was the right move.

 

This guy looks great, if the Cubs somehow end up with him I hope he truly is.

Every high priced FA is a gamble. Ask any team and they'll have at least a couple high priced horror stories to tell. It isn't something that is exclusive to Japanese players. Kaz has battled injuries since he got here, which has severely hurt his production. That risk exists with any of the big three FA pitchers, though. Daisuke is as good a bet as any of them to stay healthy and productive. And by most accounts, the has the best stuff, as well.

[Soriano12]

The Cubs are more than likely gonna ink one of the big 3.

 

Zito

Diasuke

Schmidt.

 

 

Could a flyball pitcher like Zito get shelled in Wrigley?

Schmidt is on the wrong side of 30 and has a lot of miles on that shoulder.

Diasuke hasn't done anything in MLB yet.

[Guest]

The Cubs are more than likely gonna ink one of the big 3.

 

Zito

Diasuke

Schmidt.

 

 

Could a flyball pitcher like Zito get shelled in Wrigley?

Schmidt is on the wrong side of 30 and has a lot of miles on that shoulder.

Diasuke hasn't done anything in MLB yet.

The only safe bet is that disgruntled cubs fans will complain about whomever we sign as being an inadequate commitment to winning. :D

[Soriano12]

The Cubs are more than likely gonna ink one of the big 3.

 

Zito

Diasuke

Schmidt.

 

 

Could a flyball pitcher like Zito get shelled in Wrigley?

Schmidt is on the wrong side of 30 and has a lot of miles on that shoulder.

Diasuke hasn't done anything in MLB yet.

The only safe bet is that disgruntled cubs fans will complain about whomever we sign as being an inadequate commitment to winning. :D

 

If the Cubs sign Diasuke I will draft a full page letter on the Greatness

of Jim Hendry and post it.

[Mephistopheles]

Q: Rory from Boca Raton, FL asks:

Where do you think Daiskue Matsuzaka will wnd up?

A:

 

Alan Schwarz: Certainly on a coast -- for example, although the Cubs could really use him and have the dough to throw, I just can't see that ever happening. I think you have to look at the Dodgers and Mariners on the West coast (do the Padres have the bling?), and the usual suspects on the East. I say the Mets could be heavily involved. They need a rotation boost with Pedro's situation, and Omar Minaya absolutely ADORES foreign talent. What's so interesting here is that because he's being posted, Matsuzaka will not be on the open market. Teams must make one-shot, secret bids and hope they beat out other clubs for the right to negotiate a contract in the first place.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2006102001

[RichHillIsABeast]

Q: Rory from Boca Raton, FL asks:

Where do you think Daiskue Matsuzaka will wnd up?

A:

 

Alan Schwarz: Certainly on a coast -- for example, although the Cubs could really use him and have the dough to throw, I just can't see that ever happening. I think you have to look at the Dodgers and Mariners on the West coast (do the Padres have the bling?), and the usual suspects on the East. I say the Mets could be heavily involved. They need a rotation boost with Pedro's situation, and Omar Minaya absolutely ADORES foreign talent. What's so interesting here is that because he's being posted, Matsuzaka will not be on the open market. Teams must make one-shot, secret bids and hope they beat out other clubs for the right to negotiate a contract in the first place.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2006102001

 

Why not the Cubs? We're not going to get that front of the rotation starter via trade.

 

If we're going to pay out the backside for a front of the rotation starter, he might as well be young Japanese stud.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Q: Rory from Boca Raton, FL asks:

Where do you think Daiskue Matsuzaka will wnd up?

A:

 

Alan Schwarz: Certainly on a coast -- for example, although the Cubs could really use him and have the dough to throw, I just can't see that ever happening. I think you have to look at the Dodgers and Mariners on the West coast (do the Padres have the bling?), and the usual suspects on the East. I say the Mets could be heavily involved. They need a rotation boost with Pedro's situation, and Omar Minaya absolutely ADORES foreign talent. What's so interesting here is that because he's being posted, Matsuzaka will not be on the open market. Teams must make one-shot, secret bids and hope they beat out other clubs for the right to negotiate a contract in the first place.[/quote]http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2006102001

 

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

[1908]

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

He doesn't. History suggests they won't be, though.

[RichHillIsABeast]

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

He doesn't. History suggests they won't be, though.

 

Who else did we actually bid on and lose?

[CubsWin]

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

He doesn't. History suggests they won't be, though.

 

Who else did we actually bid on and lose?

There is not a lot of history to over come here. The fact remains whoever bids the highest for the rights to bargain with him will likely sign him and everyone else will lose out. Its simple. All that BS about him going to a coastal city has nothing to do with it. Its whoever plunks down the cash. Come on, Cubs, buck the trend.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jim Callis certainly isn't a Matsuzaka expert, but still:

 

Ask BA[/url]"] Can you explain to us why teams should get excited over Daisuke Matsuzaka? Doesn't the track record of other high-profile Japanese pitchers such as Hideki Irabu, Kaz Ishii (and to a lesser extent, Hideo Nomo) show us that top-tier pitchers in Japan are anything but a certainty to be a top-tier pitcher in the United States? Is it solely his performance in the World Baseball Classic that has teams ready to pay $20 million just for the chance to sign him? How does he compare to free agents Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt?

 

Chris Birckhead

Hoboken, N.J.

 

What can you tell me about this Daisuke Matsuzaka? What kind of stuff does he feature and what is his command like? What teams are interested and ultimately which team do you think will win the right to negotiate with him?

 

Matt Alessi-Friedlander

New York

 

While most of the players who have come from Japan to the United States have mirrored the status in their homeland over here, there have been exceptions. Irabu is probably the biggest, as the "Nolan Ryan of Japan" became the Chris Knapp of America. (You just have to love those similarity scores at baseball-reference.com.) But Nomo was a genuine star when he first arrived, Kazuhiro Sasaki saved 119 games in three years before he got hurt and Akinori Otsuka has far surpassed any expectations.

 

The bottom line is that Matsuzaka has a lively 90-96 mph fastball, a plus-plus slider, a splitter and a changeup. He has dominated in Japan and he dominated in the World Baseball Classic, where he was the MVP. In eight years in Japan, he has led the Pacific League in strikeouts four times, victories three times, ERA twice and won the Sawamura Award (the Japanese Cy Young Award) once. He has been a legend since his high school days, when he threw 250 pitches to win a 17-inning game in the quarterfinals of Japan's national prep tournament—then came back to get a save the next day and to throw a no-hitter in the finals two days after that. He's also 26, so he should have a lot of pitching ahead of him.

 

Without hesitation, I would take Matsuzaka over Zito or Schmidt or any other pitcher who will be on the free-agent market this offseason. Similarly, if Matsuzaka does come over, he has to rank as the game's best pitching prospect. His stuff is in the same class as Philip Hughes (Yankees) or Homer Bailey (Reds), and he has proven himself at a higher level.

 

It could cost $20 million to $30 million to win the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka and at least twice that to sign him. Every big-budget team is expected to at least explore that possibility, and he's worth more to a club that doesn't already have a Japanese star because of the new revenue it could generate from Japanese TV and advertising rights. It's just a guess, but I could see him winding up with the Rangers, who need pitching in the worst way and never have been afraid to spend exorbitantly on Scott Boras clients.

[1908]

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

He doesn't. History suggests they won't be, though.

Who else did we actually bid on and lose?

No one. That's the point. Name one previous Japanese player playing in Japan the Cubs have pursued.

[RichHillIsABeast]

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

He doesn't. History suggests they won't be, though.

Who else did we actually bid on and lose?

No one. That's the point. Name one previous Japanese player playing in Japan the Cubs have pursued.

 

We're pursuing one (or more) now according to Jim Hendry, who wouldn't have sent his scouts over there if he wasn't serious (pulled them off advance scouting).

 

Yeah, we haven't pursued previous Japanese players. IMO, there is no track record to base any hopes of us getting Matsuzaka, Saito, etc.

 

I'm encouraged that we're actually looking into some of these guys for once.

[1908]

there is no track record to base any hopes of us getting Matsuzaka, Saito, etc.

Yeah, that's what I said. Why did you ask your question again?

[RichHillIsABeast]

there is no track record to base any hopes of us getting Matsuzaka, Saito, etc.

Yeah, that's what I said. Why did you ask your question again?

 

You implied that our past absence of interest overseas (no bids) meant we wouldn't get Matsuzaka. But, we are submitting a bid, which has never happened before (to my knowledge).

 

I don't get how not bidding before implies anything, one way or the other.

 

If A causes B, not A doesn't mean B will/won't occur.

 

A = not bidding

B = not getting a Japanese player

not A = bidding

 

If I misunderstood you, my bad.

[1908]

You implied that our past absence of interest overseas (no bids) meant we wouldn't get Matsuzaka.

I didn't imply anything. History clearly suggests they won't get him. In addition to never bidding on a posted player, the Cubs have never pursued a FA coming over from Japan.

 

I don't get how not bidding before implies anything, one way or the other.

Past behavior is a pretty good indicator of future behavior in my eyes. I hope they bid, and I hope they land him. But I get Alan Schwarz's skepticism.

[CubsWin]

You implied that our past absence of interest overseas (no bids) meant we wouldn't get Matsuzaka.

I didn't imply anything. History clearly suggests they won't get him. In addition to never bidding on a posted player, the Cubs have never pursued a FA coming over from Japan.

This point is moot. Hendry's stated intentions to bid on Matsuzaka and possibly others trump history. That is the point. In essence, so what? Who cares what the Cubs did before. Hendry is saying they are going to be doing something different now. And the rules state that the high bidder gets exclusive negotiating rights with Daisuke. It works the same for the Yankees as it does for the Cubs. Its whoever is willing to bid the most.

 

I don't get how not bidding before implies anything, one way or the other.

Past behavior is a pretty good indicator of future behavior in my eyes. I hope they bid, and I hope they land him. But I get Alan Schwarz's skepticism.

Not bidding on a japanese free agent can hardly be called "behavior" like it is some idiosyncratic way of being that goes unnoticed by the person doing it. This isn't a habit the Cubs are breaking. Its simply a choice to get in the game. I believe Hendry when he says he intends to go after Matsuzaka. If you think he is lying about going after a japanese FA because he hasn't done so previously, then you must ask yourself has he ever said he would before. "Past behavior" has nothing to do with whether or not Hendry will bid on Matsuzaka. It may, however, influence his willingness to bid what it will take to get him. That I will grant you.

 

Then again, it may not.

[muntjack]

Hendry's stated intentions to bid on Matsuzaka

 

CubsWin, I do not doubt you, but can I please have the source for this? I have heard Hendry talk about a "couple of pitchers over there" and other vague references, but have yet to hear him use "bid" and "Matsuzaka" in the same sentence.

[NorthsideAvenger]

So how does Alan Schwarz know the Cubs won't be the winning bidder for Matsuzaka?

He doesn't. History suggests they won't be, though.

Who else did we actually bid on and lose?

No one. That's the point. Name one previous Japanese player playing in Japan the Cubs have pursued.

 

Maybe just maybe, Hendry now recognizes that he needs to widen his search for players who can help this club. I, for one, wouldn't be surprise if the Cubs ended up with the highest bid.

[CubsWin]

Hendry's stated intentions to bid on Matsuzaka

 

CubsWin, I do not doubt you, but can I please have the source for this? I have heard Hendry talk about a "couple of pitchers over there" and other vague references, but have yet to hear him use "bid" and "Matsuzaka" in the same sentence.

ChicagoSports.com[/url]"]Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito and Mike Mussina are expected to head the class of major-league free agents, assuming the Yankees don't re-sign Mussina, but will battle for second billing behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, the 26-year-old Japanese ace who is being made available by the Seibu Lions. Hendry indicated Tuesday the Cubs will enter the blind bidding, but at least eight other teams are in that derby.

[1908]

I don't get how not bidding before implies anything, one way or the other.

Past behavior is a pretty good indicator of future behavior in my eyes. I hope they bid, and I hope they land him. But I get Alan Schwarz's skepticism.

Not bidding on a japanese free agent can hardly be called "behavior" like it is some idiosyncratic way of being that goes unnoticed by the person doing it. This isn't a habit the Cubs are breaking. Its simply a choice to get in the game. I believe Hendry when he says he intends to go after Matsuzaka. If you think he is lying about going after a japanese FA because he hasn't done so previously, then you must ask yourself has he ever said he would before. "Past behavior" has nothing to do with whether or not Hendry will bid on Matsuzaka. It may, however, influence his willingness to bid what it will take to get him. That I will grant you.

 

Then again, it may not.

Until the Cubs land a star Japanese player, it's all talk and speculation. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the Cubs end up with one. If Matsuzaka ends up in NY, Seattle, LA or SD, I won't be surprised, because those teams have been involved in Japan consistently. Dismiss that all you'd like; I don't really care enough about it to continue this circular argument.

[Jazz]

If I'm Hendry, I fork over 30 mil and dare anyone to try to beat it.

[CubsWin]

I don't get how not bidding before implies anything, one way or the other.

Past behavior is a pretty good indicator of future behavior in my eyes. I hope they bid, and I hope they land him. But I get Alan Schwarz's skepticism.

Not bidding on a japanese free agent can hardly be called "behavior" like it is some idiosyncratic way of being that goes unnoticed by the person doing it. This isn't a habit the Cubs are breaking. Its simply a choice to get in the game. I believe Hendry when he says he intends to go after Matsuzaka. If you think he is lying about going after a japanese FA because he hasn't done so previously, then you must ask yourself has he ever said he would before. "Past behavior" has nothing to do with whether or not Hendry will bid on Matsuzaka. It may, however, influence his willingness to bid what it will take to get him. That I will grant you.

 

Then again, it may not.

Until the Cubs land a star Japanese player, it's all talk and speculation. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the Cubs end up with one. If Matsuzaka ends up in NY, Seattle, LA or SD, I won't be surprised, because those teams have been involved in Japan consistently. Dismiss that all you'd like; I don't really care enough about it to continue this circular argument.

Neither do I. Though I see nothing circular about this argument.

 

Just making points. I have no need for you to change your mind.