the notre dame thread

[soccer10k]

(By the way, the Michigan game and the two games before it are that much more evidence -- call it "exhibit Z" -- that Kevin White needs to be fired. There is simply no excuse for allowing Big Ten officials to call a game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And let me be perfectly clear, the officiating had absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of the game (if the Irish had an ounce of heart on Saturday, it might have). However, either our opponents have been the best coached squads in the history of the universe, or there is something funky going on, particularly with the holding penalties. Notre Dame has been flagged about ten times so far this year (at least three of which were complete fabrications), while our opponents have not been called for holding once that I can remember. Officials from BCS conferences have an undeniable conflict of interest when it comes to Notre Dame. That White would allow not just BCS conference officials, but officials from our opponents’ conferences, is a demonstration of naivete at best and a negotiated surrender at worst. It’s an untenable situation that has to change, because it has, and will, cost us wins.)

I don't expect anyone to take this seriously because it's from an ND outlet and obviously it didn't have any impact on the outcome of the game, but I agree fully with this paragraph, and it hasn't just been the Michigan game.

 

First, I do agree with him that they shouldn't have Big 10 officials to call this game. As I stated in the other thread, in a game between two teams from opposing conferences, the officials should come from a third conference. I do think that a game between two BCS teams should have officials from a BCS conference though.

 

Second, I don't understand why this guy is complaining about the holding calls when in the very next paragraph he states:

 

This is the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen in my years of watching Notre Dame football. Before the season, when pundits were ooohing and ahhhing over the offense, I cringed when I would hear them talk about the “outstanding veteran offensive line.” A million combined starts doesn’t matter if you suck, and the seniors on the interior have been so very average for years now.

 

If the offensive line "sucks" as he so nicely put it, don't you think it's possible that they hold the players on the opposing team more because they, well, "suck" more than their opponent's offensive line?

[adamb0719]

(By the way, the Michigan game and the two games before it are that much more evidence -- call it "exhibit Z" -- that Kevin White needs to be fired. There is simply no excuse for allowing Big Ten officials to call a game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And let me be perfectly clear, the officiating had absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of the game (if the Irish had an ounce of heart on Saturday, it might have). However, either our opponents have been the best coached squads in the history of the universe, or there is something funky going on, particularly with the holding penalties. Notre Dame has been flagged about ten times so far this year (at least three of which were complete fabrications), while our opponents have not been called for holding once that I can remember. Officials from BCS conferences have an undeniable conflict of interest when it comes to Notre Dame. That White would allow not just BCS conference officials, but officials from our opponents’ conferences, is a demonstration of naivete at best and a negotiated surrender at worst. It’s an untenable situation that has to change, because it has, and will, cost us wins.)

I don't expect anyone to take this seriously because it's from an ND outlet and obviously it didn't have any impact on the outcome of the game, but I agree fully with this paragraph, and it hasn't just been the Michigan game.

 

First, I do agree with him that they shouldn't have Big 10 officials to call this game. As I stated in the other thread, in a game between two teams from opposing conferences, the officials should come from a third conference. I do think that a game between two BCS teams should have officials from a BCS conference though.

 

Second, I don't understand why this guy is complaining about the holding calls when in the very next paragraph he states:

 

This is the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen in my years of watching Notre Dame football. Before the season, when pundits were ooohing and ahhhing over the offense, I cringed when I would hear them talk about the “outstanding veteran offensive line.” A million combined starts doesn’t matter if you suck, and the seniors on the interior have been so very average for years now.

 

If the offensive line "sucks" as he so nicely put it, don't you think it's possible that they hold the players on the opposing team more because they, well, "suck" more than their opponent's offensive line?

 

It is very interesting that ND opponents have not been called for any holding calls this year. Yes ND is guilty of most of their holds, but a few of them were complete crap. I don't like complaining about refs because I don't really think they can lose a game for a team (at least not until the Oregon game), but there really is something interesting going on. It wouldn't have made a bit of difference this Saturday, but I really do think the officiating was terrible--both calls made and missed calls.

[NewUserName]

Michigan is traditionally one of the least penalized teams in the country. For years I thought this was some sort of Michigan bias. However the more I watch them and the older I get I have noticed that some of the things that usually attract a lot of penalties like holding they just dont do. I am not saying that they dont hold but they almost always have their hands inside the shoulder pads when blocking. They also let go when the defender is creating some space. They rarely ever fall start or go offsides. I think their defensive backs are more physical than most, however defensive holding is probably one the the least called penalties in Football. I think defensive backs get a lot of leeway. So I guess I am saying they just seem to play smarter with these things.

 

Watching the game on Saturday I am surprised to see some complaining about the officiating in the game. There were some silly calls in the 4th quarter. I didnt notice any blatant calls that went the wrong way though. Since NBC easily has the worst coverage of anyone doing football sometimes it is hard to see things on TV though. At least one time the announcers and the camera guys were looking at one thing and it looked like a holding was going on somewhere else. Another time a Michigan receiver caught the ball on the sidelines and the play was reviewed. NBC only had 2 angles and both were behind the reciever so you couldnt tell if he was in or out when he got control of the ball. I wonder how much NBC makes from ND football because they dont seem to invest a lot of money into a good production.

 

I have said in the past that I dont think any teams get unfair treatment from refs. ND haters always think that they are getting breaks from the refs because they are "Notre Dame" The same with Michigan or any other big time school. The amount of people involved that would have to know that the games are not on the up and up would be too many without someone coming out and admitting this is going on. I also think we seem to see and notice when a call goes against our team or the team we are rooting for. We also tend to forget when our team gets favorable calls. If for example Oregon has only 1 loss this year and are making an arguement to be a BCS at large team I am guessing they wont be mentioning Sats onside kick. If Oklahoma is making a case to be a BCS at large team I am guessing they will point out that play a 1000 times

[hawkeyecub]

Michigan is notorious for getting the most breaks when it comes to officiating in the Big Ten. Some of it is probably sour grapes because they've been at the top nearly every year (plus officials give them the benefit of the doubt for that reason) but I think it's almost a unanimous opinion in the Big Ten.

 

It's not even just the lack of penalties called against them, but some of the strange calls that go against their opponents. I think any UM fan would admit that the first half of the Iowa game last year was out of control.

[TruffleShuffle]

Michigan is notorious for getting the most breaks when it comes to officiating in the Big Ten. Some of it is probably sour grapes because they've been at the top nearly every year (plus officials give them the benefit of the doubt for that reason) but I think it's almost a unanimous opinion in the Big Ten.

 

It's not even just the lack of penalties called against them, but some of the strange calls that go against their opponents. I think any UM fan would admit that the first half of the Iowa game last year was out of control.

 

Oh yes... their games against PSU last year and four years ago still make my blood boil. There was a game several years back in which the ball was jarred loose when the Illinois runner landed, but it was ruled a fumble. Then on the ensuing possession, Michigan RB Anthony Thomas clearly fumbled the ball but was ruled down. It was late in the game and was really mind-boggling. And yes, Iowa was boned over repeatedly during the first half last year. The refs may not favor Michigan consciously, but they seem to have an extrodinary amount of blown calls go their way, especially in close ballgames.

[NewUserName]

I was at that Michigan/Illinois game and the play happened right in front of us. Every fan in the section I was in not only thought the Michigan player(I think it was Anthony Thomas) was down but also wondered where the flag for the face mask was. I agree after seeing highlights that he wasnt down but in a split second look he did look down. I have never seen a highlight that could verify what we all clearly seen though, that the Illinois player dragged him down by the facemask. I also think that the call on the Illinois players fumble was incorrect but it would have been 4th and a mile and Illinois would have had to punt. If you remember that game Illinois had a large halftime lead. Drew Hensen didnt play in the first half. They put him in in the 2nd half and Michigan just completely clobbered them. I dont think they stopped Michigan once in the 2nd half so the Illinois fumble probably didnt matter. Also there was a bizarre celebrating penalty on Michigan in that game that was very costly at the time. It allowed Illinois to keep a drive going late in the game. Kind of off topic but I remember thinking how great of a game that was afterwords. I was cheering for Illinois but came away thinking Drew Hensen was going to be a great QB. I also was at the Illinois/Penn St game in 94 which was truly one the most amazing games I ever saw. I was cheering for Penn St that game because I wanted them to go undefeated and win a NT, if MSU didnt beat them.

 

I didnt see either of the Michigan/Iowa game last year or the Michigan/Penn St. So I cant comment on those. In the Michigan/Penn St game 4 years ago there was a bad call where I believe a Penn St player caught the ball but was ruled out of bounds? If this is the game that you are talking about I also remember that a Penn St player caught a pass earlier in the drive that he didnt catch, it gave Penn St a first down instead of being something like 4th and 10. Just another case of remember what we want to remember and forgetting what works out for our team.

 

Anyway I do know of a time when a Michigan St time keeper cost Michigan a game also. If a Michigan fan was asked I am sure that they could point out numerous cases were they feel that the refs screwed them. Last years Alamo Bowl being one that I can remember. Just for clarification I am a Michigan St fan and probably could tell you a lot more instances when I thought the officiating was going for them.

 

I am just saying that Michigan is easily the most hated team in the Big Ten. Like I said earlier we like to notice and remember when calls go against our teams or the teams we are rooting for and not notice or remember when they work in our favor. Since Michigan is generally disliked our emotional preception thinks they are getting all the breaks.

 

Its just like everyone thinking that the Yankees get all the breaks, or the Lakers. Most NHL fans think the Red Wings get all the calls even though they lead the NHL in penalty mins just a couple of years ago. I just dont think the amount of people who would have to know all this is going on, someone would be talking by now.

 

Lastly I want to apologize about this being in the ND thread. It really is about officiating and since most ND haters think they get all the breaks it is kind of about them also.

[Andy]

Anyway I do know of a time when a Michigan St time keeper cost Michigan a game also.

I remember that game. The timekeeping "mistake" was pretty blatant, but what a finish. That was also the year MSU was actually good from beginning to end and beat Florida in the Citrus Bowl if I remember correctly.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Anyway I do know of a time when a Michigan St time keeper cost Michigan a game also.

I remember that game. The timekeeping "mistake" was pretty blatant, but what a finish. That was also the year MSU was actually good from beginning to end and beat Florida in the Citrus Bowl if I remember correctly.

 

That incident was blown out of proportion. What is forgotten is that MSU should actually still have had a timeout, because the referees were tardy calling a 12 men on the field penalty on UM during that final drive.

[CubColtPacer]

(By the way, the Michigan game and the two games before it are that much more evidence -- call it "exhibit Z" -- that Kevin White needs to be fired. There is simply no excuse for allowing Big Ten officials to call a game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And let me be perfectly clear, the officiating had absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of the game (if the Irish had an ounce of heart on Saturday, it might have). However, either our opponents have been the best coached squads in the history of the universe, or there is something funky going on, particularly with the holding penalties. Notre Dame has been flagged about ten times so far this year (at least three of which were complete fabrications), while our opponents have not been called for holding once that I can remember. Officials from BCS conferences have an undeniable conflict of interest when it comes to Notre Dame. That White would allow not just BCS conference officials, but officials from our opponents’ conferences, is a demonstration of naivete at best and a negotiated surrender at worst. It’s an untenable situation that has to change, because it has, and will, cost us wins.)

I don't expect anyone to take this seriously because it's from an ND outlet and obviously it didn't have any impact on the outcome of the game, but I agree fully with this paragraph, and it hasn't just been the Michigan game.

 

First, I do agree with him that they shouldn't have Big 10 officials to call this game. As I stated in the other thread, in a game between two teams from opposing conferences, the officials should come from a third conference. I do think that a game between two BCS teams should have officials from a BCS conference though.

 

Second, I don't understand why this guy is complaining about the holding calls when in the very next paragraph he states:

 

This is the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen in my years of watching Notre Dame football. Before the season, when pundits were ooohing and ahhhing over the offense, I cringed when I would hear them talk about the “outstanding veteran offensive line.” A million combined starts doesn’t matter if you suck, and the seniors on the interior have been so very average for years now.

 

If the offensive line "sucks" as he so nicely put it, don't you think it's possible that they hold the players on the opposing team more because they, well, "suck" more than their opponent's offensive line?

 

The offensive line has been horrible-but I think most of the controversial holding calls have not come from the line. In particular, Rhema Mcknight has been called for 2 huge holding calls this year, and replays showed that both times he was simply blocking. I can only recall one holding penalty against the line that I even questioned-most of them have been obvious calls.

BTW, this next section is an observation, not a complaint about the officiation. If the rule is called this way, then it was completely the right call. Has anyone ever seen before though a block in the back called on the kicking team on a kickoff? I can never remember that call being made, and I didn't even know it was possible. In fact, that penalty at the end of the 1st half and Brady's dropping of the ball as he went to pass and couldn't fall on it and it going for a TD were the two plays that I think symbolized ND's day. They just could not do anything right, and when they started to do well in something they found a way to mess it up.

[Andy]

It was actually funny, because I didn't hear the penalty called on ND. I heard block in the back and just assumed it was on Michigan, and I laughed because the flag was thrown from 30 yards up the field, so I figured the refs were trying to lessen the ridiculous penalty differential in the game to that point (I think Michigan had 1 penalty and ND had 6 or something). It wasn't until I got home and watched the tape that I saw they'd called it on the Irish. I didn't realize kicking teams could "block" in the back.

[RynoRules]

Anyway I do know of a time when a Michigan St time keeper cost Michigan a game also.

I remember that game. The timekeeping "mistake" was pretty blatant, but what a finish. That was also the year MSU was actually good from beginning to end and beat Florida in the Citrus Bowl if I remember correctly.

 

That incident was blown out of proportion. What is forgotten is that MSU should actually still have had a timeout, because the referees were tardy calling a 12 men on the field penalty on UM during that final drive.

 

I love that rational. Blown calls that favor Mich. establish a "pattern", but blown calls that go against Mich. are "blown out of proportion". There's a logical inconsistency there. A blown call is a blown call.

[NewUserName]

Thanks rynorules I think you said in a Nutshell what I was trying to say. It just took me several paragraphs.

[NewUserName]

Also if you seen the highlight of the block in the back it had to be called something. If not a block in the back than unnessacary roughness. The Michigan player had his back turned and was just running downfield and the ND player pushed him in the back. The reason that blocking in the back is a penalty is not because it gives a team some sort of advantage. To me it would be good football to have blockers coming from where the defenders are not expecting them. The reason it is a penalty to block in the back is because it causes injuries. It has only been in my lifetime that blocking in the back has become and a penalty. Though clipping always has been. So if a player from a kicking team was to push someone in the back it is just as likely to cause injury as a player from the recieving team doing it so therefore by logic it has to be called.

[cubweiser03]

Anyway I do know of a time when a Michigan St time keeper cost Michigan a game also.

I remember that game. The timekeeping "mistake" was pretty blatant, but what a finish. That was also the year MSU was actually good from beginning to end and beat Florida in the Citrus Bowl if I remember correctly.

 

That incident was blown out of proportion. What is forgotten is that MSU should actually still have had a timeout, because the referees were tardy calling a 12 men on the field penalty on UM during that final drive.

 

AH Ha. Except they didnt have 12 guys on the field they had 11. To be honest i never really remember these blown calls until i looked up some stuff. All i remember is TJ Duckett being a human bowling ball and blowing through the line of scrimmage for like 10 yards EVERY SINGLE TIME. We were actually laughing at how awesome he was. We new the fate of the game if they would stick to handing the ball off to TJ. Michigan didnt lose because of the refs, they lost because of the man child TJ Duckett. It was fitting he caught the TD to win.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Anyway I do know of a time when a Michigan St time keeper cost Michigan a game also.

I remember that game. The timekeeping "mistake" was pretty blatant, but what a finish. That was also the year MSU was actually good from beginning to end and beat Florida in the Citrus Bowl if I remember correctly.

 

That incident was blown out of proportion. What is forgotten is that MSU should actually still have had a timeout, because the referees were tardy calling a 12 men on the field penalty on UM during that final drive.

 

I love that rational. Blown calls that favor Mich. establish a "pattern", but blown calls that go against Mich. are "blown out of proportion". There's a logical inconsistency there. A blown call is a blown call.

 

I never once commented about UM getting calls aside from that post. People have talked about the timekeeper incident for a long time, and it's always missed that they should've had a timeout. When it happened even the announcers were talking about it.

[Andy]

Disclaimer before I do this: I in no way believe ND will make or will deserve to make the national title game at the end of the season.

 

But because I'm a hopeless optimist, let's see what the chances are of the 11 teams in front of ND losing before January. (Of course, losing is no guarantee that said teams would fall behind Notre Dame.)

 

1. Ohio State

 

Possible losses remaining: at Iowa next Saturday, at Michigan St 10/14, vs Michigan 11/18

 

Odds of losing: Probably somewhere between zero and 10 percent. I really think O$U will be unbeaten going into the Michigan game.

 

2. Auburn

 

Possible losses remaining: at S. Carolina next Saturday, vs Florida 10/14, vs Georgia 11/11, at Alabama 11/18, SEC Title Game if they make it there

 

Odds of losing: I'd say pretty darn good, between 40-55 percent. They're helped by the fact that they don't have a long midseason stretch of tough games, but it's hard to think that the Tigers can get through their remaining tough games, plus the SEC title game (which would make 3 really tough games out of 4) without a blemish.

 

3. USC

 

Possible losses remaining: vs Arizona State 10/14, vs Oregon 11/11, vs Cal 11/18, vs ND 11/25

 

Odds of losing: Well, obviously ND controls their own destiny here. USC probably is not going to lose before the ND game because none of those first three teams are really all that good (except for possibly Oregon - we'll see about them). All those tough games are at home, which helps their cause immensely. Oddly enough, this year's USC team has just as good a chance of playing in the title game as last year's simply because they don't have a tough road game on the schedule. I'd put the odds of USC losing a game at about 25 percent.

 

4. W. Virginia

 

Possible losses remaining: at Louisville 11/2, at Pittsburgh 11/16

 

Odds of losing: 35 percent. That Louisville game will be very tough, especially if Brian Brohm is back for it, which it is believed he will be. The Pitt game could be a surprise, but the Panthers would have to play very well to win that game. It's a crime against football if this team goes unbeaten playing only one very good team.

 

5. Florida

 

Possible losses remaining: vs Alabama next Saturday, vs LSU 10/7, at Auburn 10/14, vs Georgia 10/28, vs S. Carolina 11/11, at FSU 11/25, SEC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: 75 percent. Three straight games against Top 10 teams spells real trouble for the Gators.

 

6. Michigan

 

Possible losses remaining: at Minnesota next Saturday, vs MSU 10/7, at PSU 10/14, vs Iowa 10/21, at O$U 11/25

 

Odds of losing: 85 percent. Four games in a row that will be at least moderately tough could foretell a stumble, but looming at the end are the Buckeyes, and I just don't like Michigan's chances in that game.

 

7. Texas

 

Possible losses remaining: at Oklahoma 10/7, at Nebraska 10/21, Big 12 title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: Tough to place. None of those three teams (the Big 12 North champ, whoever it is, won't be nearly as good as the Horns) looks to have the talent of Texas, but with a first-year starter, you never know. Even so, I put the odds of another Texas loss at just 30 percent.

 

8. Louisville

 

Possible losses remaining: vs W. Virginia 11/2, vs S. Florida 11/18, at Pittsburgh 11/25

 

Odds of losing: I'm putting this at 40 percent. Brohm will be just recently returned from his injury, if he is back, going into the WV game. They will be without Michael Bush. However, their backups have proven capable so far. They don't play anyone else remotely capable of beating them. I added the USF game because they lost to the Bulls last year.

 

9. LSU

 

Possible losses remaining: at Florida 10/7, at Tennessee 11/4, vs Alabama 11/11, SEC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: I'll put this at 50 percent, since Florida is a very talented team. Since they're in the same division as Auburn who has already beaten them, the Tigers are this year's version of the team that could potentially make the title game without winning their own division.

 

10. Georgia

 

Possible losses remaining: vs Tennessee 10/7, at Florida 10/28, at Auburn 11/11, vs GT 11/25, SEC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: 90 percent. The Dawgs haven't impressed me or many others, and they have four, possibly five, really tough games remaining. I don't see any way they make it through all of them.

 

11. Virginia Tech

 

Possible losses remaining: vs GT next Saturday, at BC 10/12, vs Clemson 10/26, at Miami 11/4, ACC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: The Hokies haven't done that many impressive things, but they've done what they've needed to, and they don't play anyone that appears talented enough to stop that determination. I'll put the odds at 30 percent.

 

As for ND? Well, they'll be 10-1 heading to the Coliseum if they even half-ass their next seven games, and if they don't completely embarrass themelves there, they'll at least play in a BCS game (likely whoever has the first pick in the rotation - Orange or Sugar). But their chances of managing to slip by ten teams (and not get passed up by anyone due to computer rankings)? Not great. Likely between 2-4 percent at best.

[CubinNY]

Disclaimer before I do this: I in no way believe ND will make or will deserve to make the national title game at the end of the season.

 

But because I'm a hopeless optimist, let's see what the chances are of the 11 teams in front of ND losing before January. (Of course, losing is no guarantee that said teams would fall behind Notre Dame.)

 

1. Ohio State

 

Possible losses remaining: at Iowa next Saturday, at Michigan St 10/14, vs Michigan 11/18

 

Odds of losing: Probably somewhere between zero and 10 percent. I really think O$U will be unbeaten going into the Michigan game.

 

2. Auburn

 

Possible losses remaining: at S. Carolina next Saturday, vs Florida 10/14, vs Georgia 11/11, at Alabama 11/18, SEC Title Game if they make it there

 

Odds of losing: I'd say pretty darn good, between 40-55 percent. They're helped by the fact that they don't have a long midseason stretch of tough games, but it's hard to think that the Tigers can get through their remaining tough games, plus the SEC title game (which would make 3 really tough games out of 4) without a blemish.

 

3. USC

 

Possible losses remaining: vs Arizona State 10/14, vs Oregon 11/11, vs Cal 11/18, vs ND 11/25

 

Odds of losing: Well, obviously ND controls their own destiny here. USC probably is not going to lose before the ND game because none of those first three teams are really all that good (except for possibly Oregon - we'll see about them). All those tough games are at home, which helps their cause immensely. Oddly enough, this year's USC team has just as good a chance of playing in the title game as last year's simply because they don't have a tough road game on the schedule. I'd put the odds of USC losing a game at about 25 percent.

 

4. W. Virginia

 

Possible losses remaining: at Louisville 11/2, at Pittsburgh 11/16

 

Odds of losing: 35 percent. That Louisville game will be very tough, especially if Brian Brohm is back for it, which it is believed he will be. The Pitt game could be a surprise, but the Panthers would have to play very well to win that game. It's a crime against football if this team goes unbeaten playing only one very good team.

 

5. Florida

 

Possible losses remaining: vs Alabama next Saturday, vs LSU 10/7, at Auburn 10/14, vs Georgia 10/28, vs S. Carolina 11/11, at FSU 11/25, SEC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: 75 percent. Three straight games against Top 10 teams spells real trouble for the Gators.

 

6. Michigan

 

Possible losses remaining: at Minnesota next Saturday, vs MSU 10/7, at PSU 10/14, vs Iowa 10/21, at O$U 11/25

 

Odds of losing: 85 percent. Four games in a row that will be at least moderately tough could foretell a stumble, but looming at the end are the Buckeyes, and I just don't like Michigan's chances in that game.

 

7. Texas

 

Possible losses remaining: at Oklahoma 10/7, at Nebraska 10/21, Big 12 title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: Tough to place. None of those three teams (the Big 12 North champ, whoever it is, won't be nearly as good as the Horns) looks to have the talent of Texas, but with a first-year starter, you never know. Even so, I put the odds of another Texas loss at just 30 percent.

 

8. Louisville

 

Possible losses remaining: vs W. Virginia 11/2, vs S. Florida 11/18, at Pittsburgh 11/25

 

Odds of losing: I'm putting this at 40 percent. Brohm will be just recently returned from his injury, if he is back, going into the WV game. They will be without Michael Bush. However, their backups have proven capable so far. They don't play anyone else remotely capable of beating them. I added the USF game because they lost to the Bulls last year.

 

9. LSU

 

Possible losses remaining: at Florida 10/7, at Tennessee 11/4, vs Alabama 11/11, SEC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: I'll put this at 50 percent, since Florida is a very talented team. Since they're in the same division as Auburn who has already beaten them, the Tigers are this year's version of the team that could potentially make the title game without winning their own division.

 

10. Georgia

 

Possible losses remaining: vs Tennessee 10/7, at Florida 10/28, at Auburn 11/11, vs GT 11/25, SEC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: 90 percent. The Dawgs haven't impressed me or many others, and they have four, possibly five, really tough games remaining. I don't see any way they make it through all of them.

 

11. Virginia Tech

 

Possible losses remaining: vs GT next Saturday, at BC 10/12, vs Clemson 10/26, at Miami 11/4, ACC title game if they make it

 

Odds of losing: The Hokies haven't done that many impressive things, but they've done what they've needed to, and they don't play anyone that appears talented enough to stop that determination. I'll put the odds at 30 percent.

 

As for ND? Well, they'll be 10-1 heading to the Coliseum if they even half-ass their next seven games, and if they don't completely embarrass themelves there, they'll at least play in a BCS game (likely whoever has the first pick in the rotation - Orange or Sugar). But their chances of managing to slip by ten teams (and not get passed up by anyone due to computer rankings)? Not great. Likely between 2-4 percent at best.

 

On paper at least, I think your analysis is good. Most good teams get better as the season progresses. I expect ND will be better and they have some cream puffs on the schedule (on paper) going into the USC game.

 

I think WVA will mop up the Big East, but let's face it, that doesn't mean they deserve to be in the title game. But then again, that's what makes college football so interesting and frustrating at the same time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Small nitpicks. I may have forgotten my ability to do statistics, but if I haven't (I'm sure I have), I've got ND as a .05% chance according to your odds.

 

That and the odds of losses by Louisville and West VA should add up to at least 100%. Same with UM/OSU But I'm really just being picky.

[CuseCubFan69]

On paper at least, I think your analysis is good. Most good teams get better as the season progresses. I expect ND will be better and they have some cream puffs on the schedule (on paper) going into the USC game.

 

I think WVA will mop up the Big East, but let's face it, that doesn't mean they deserve to be in the title game. But then again, that's what makes college football so interesting and frustrating at the same time.

 

Because the Big East is weak or because WV is just that good? I think Louisville is as good as any team in the country and they just beat an Undefeated Kansas St in Kansas with their backup QB and backup RB. Also, the Big East has one of the strongest bottom 4's in College football, if not, show me a bottom 4 that are better.

[TruffleShuffle]

There's also the question of whether ND would deserve to be in the national championship game over other one-loss teams. A win at USC would be impressive, but there would still be the blowout loss at home to Michigan and the gift win over Michigan State. Those aren't exactly the same as, say, Ohio State's Texas loss or Penn State loss last year.

[CuseCubFan69]

There's also the question of whether ND would deserve to be in the national championship game over other one-loss teams. A win at USC would be impressive, but there would still be the blowout loss at home to Michigan and the gift win over Michigan State. Those aren't exactly the same as, say, Ohio State's Texas loss or Penn State loss last year.

 

And what happens if Michigan is that one loss team? IMO, they have to root for Michigan to lose twice.

[bukie]

I'm curious, if OSU is the only undefeated team and Michigan is a one-loss team, if they could possibly play each other in the national championship game. I'm not sure of the chances of that happening, but half the Big Ten isn't going to beat either of those teams (Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota), and the other half would have to play unbelievably well to do so.

 

I also wonder if a BCS championship game between 2 conference teams would cause an uproar.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm curious, if OSU is the only undefeated team and Michigan is a one-loss team, if they could possibly play each other in the national championship game. I'm not sure of the chances of that happening, but half the Big Ten isn't going to beat either of those teams (Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota), and the other half would have to play unbelievably well to do so.

 

I also wonder if a BCS championship game between 2 conference teams would cause an uproar.

 

I don't think the Big 10 is good enough this year for that to happen. Penn State is down and it might depend on how good Iowa does from here on too. If Michigan played a tougher non conference schedule...even one tough team other than ND, they might have had a shot.

[soccer10k]

I'm curious, if OSU is the only undefeated team and Michigan is a one-loss team, if they could possibly play each other in the national championship game. I'm not sure of the chances of that happening, but half the Big Ten isn't going to beat either of those teams (Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota), and the other half would have to play unbelievably well to do so.

 

I also wonder if a BCS championship game between 2 conference teams would cause an uproar.

 

I highly doubt that based on the fact that Michigan will have lost to Ohio St. late in the season and therefore would likely drop a few spots in the polls which would hurt them in the BCS standings. The are likely to be a few other one loss teams ahead of Michigan. If Ohio St. goes undefeated they are much more likely to play a one loss Texas team again.

[NewUserName]

I think the only chance of Michigan playing OSU in the Championship game is if the final score in there game was something like 24-23 OSU winning but Michigan playing better. If Michigan beats OSU in Columbus OSU has no shot at the Championship game.