The Cubs Need Michael Conforto and Moises Ballesteros in the Lineup Right Now, Which is a Problem

The numbers are a bit deceiving. The Cubs entered their series in Smyrna, Georgia Tuesday night with the third-most runs per game in the league so far this season, but that doesn't feel like an accurate depiction of the quality of their lineup. They've benefited, within one quarter of the campaign, from seeing a few teams overwhelmed by pitching problems. They've benefited, too, from loud hot streaks by Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ. They were a bit over their skis.

Over the last three days, though, they've been exposed—and, of course, suffered disproportionately, just as they thrived disproportionately at other points. Alex Bregman hit a very timely home run to give the team a short-lived lead Tuesday night, but they eventually lost, 5-2, and Bregman's homer was the only hit they mustered. They're struggling. Since hitting his last home run on April 21, Nico Hoerner is batting .205/.280/.274. Dansby Swanson is 6-for-39 in May, with just one extra-base hit, and his walk rate has tapered off, too. Bregman entered Tuesday with a .661 OPS for the season, and Pete Crow-Armstrong's is on the wrong side of .700, too. 

Those four players will be in the lineup just about every day, though, as much for their defense and intangibles as for their bats. When they flounder the way they have of late, therefore, Craig Counsell has to look for ways to make up for them. On Tuesday night, that took the form of a second start behind the plate this year for Moisés Ballesteros. When Ballesteros catches, Michael Conforto can serve as the designated hitter, putting both of them in the lineup without taking out any of Happ, Seiya Suzuki or Michael Busch. It's a way to trade some run prevention for run production, and given the way Miguel Amaya is playing, it's a reasonable thing to try.

Unfortunately, Ballesteros is hitting a bit below his best, too. He's 2-for-30 in May and hitless in his last 21 at-bats. He hit into tough luck Tuesday night in the shadows of the freeway, next to the outlet mall, with a 106-MPH lineout and a 107-MPH fielder's choice, but both were playable because they were hit too low. Worse, he's still looking like a shaky defensive catcher, struggling to navigate tough spots for his pitchers; framing poorly; and wasting challenges early in the game, as he did in the bottom of the first Tuesday.

Conforto is the offensive bright spot for the team right now. He probably won't produce power all season to match the binge he's been on lately, but hitting the ball hard is just part of his early success. He's also dramatically reduced his swing rate this year, leading to a walk rate over 18%. Last season (and throughout his long career), Conforto maintained roughly a 45% overall swing rate, with good discipline outside the zone. This season, though, he's ratcheted that all the way up. His chase rate (the percentage of pitches outside the zone at which he swings) is all the way down to 16.4%, without a concomitant loss of swing rate inside the zone. His overall swing rate is down to 39%. He's honed his swing to catch the barrel within the zone, and isn't worrying about whiffs on the rare occasions when he does chase.

The slightly smaller zone this year, thanks to the implementation of ABS, has been a boon to Conforto. He won't be able to sustain his extraordinary plate discipline, either, but he should be able to hold onto enough of it to keep getting on base well. That makes it very tempting, for Counsell, to look for ways to get both Conforto and Ballesteros into the lineup at the same time. There just isn't a good one. Conforto is a markedly worse defender in each outfield corner than Happ or Suzuki, and anyway, those two are impending free agents who rightfully want to be in the lineup every day. Politically and logistically, the only viable way to play both Conforto and Ballesteros regularly is to have Ballesteros get some reps behind the plate.

Gambits like that don't often pay off, and this one didn't on Tuesday. Counsell might continue trying it from time to time, though—at least until one or two of his four slumping stars get going again. Managers have to make tradeoffs, and the Cubs might have to give up a few extra runs as they fight to score more consistently in the weeks ahead.