[fromthestretch]

I'm not saying it's irrelevent, it's just not as big a stat as it is being made.. the lead-off guy needs to get on..less important the further down the line-up.

 

My apologies if someone else already asked this, but I've only made it through five pages of this thread so far.

 

What if the #2 hitter leads off the fourth inning? Shouldn't he be capable of getting on base? The first hitter in the lineup doesn't lead off every inning.

 

EDIT: It appears someone did bring this up.

Edited August 21, 2006 by grassbass

[mhuber92211]

OBP is flawed. It does not include getting on base due to an error, or a fielder's choice. You are "on base" however. Exactly the reason why stats don't explain the whole game and by watching a ballgame you learn more then reading a box score. Otherwise there would be no reason to watch. To get a clear picture of the game AND the players playing you need to watch NOT read.

 

Are you trying to imply I don't watch games?

 

My guess is I've watched as many games as the majority of people on this forum this year.

 

Errr...no. What I said is my general opinion on the usage of stats to solely make a decision. i.e. Batter A is 3-6 against picher A but is batting .250 for the year. Batter B is hitting 1-6 against Pitcher A but is hitting .320 for the year. Lets play Batter A due to his awesome stats against Pitcher A.

 

I, in no way, implied anything about a specific poster. I'm not sure what i wrote to give that impression.

 

Cuse has it right. Use both but give neither one more creedance then the other. Both are tools to use to get to a decision but not the answer to the decision.

[Warpticon]

OBP is flawed. It does not include getting on base due to an error, or a fielder's choice. You are "on base" however. Exactly the reason why stats don't explain the whole game and by watching a ballgame you learn more then reading a box score. Otherwise there would be no reason to watch. To get a clear picture of the game AND the players playing you need to watch NOT read.

 

Errors aren't a part of the game the hitter can control, and fielder's choices? Seriously? You know why it's called a Fielder's Choice, right? Because the fielder conceivably could have gotten you, but he got the lead runner because it made more sense. The only difference between a FC and a popup is a different guy standing on the bag. If there hadn't been a man on, you would've just grounded out. It has no place in evaluating a hitter's ability to get on base.

[fromthestretch]

OBP is flawed. It does not include getting on base due to an error, or a fielder's choice.

 

Probably because those are not really things within a batter's control. An error is a defensive miscue, and the majority of fielder's choices result in an out. Why on earth should the hitter be credited with getting on base when it's the defense's fault he reached or when an out was recorded?

Edited August 21, 2006 by grassbass

[Transmogrified Tiger]

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

RISP numbers are not predictive, OBP is predictive

[stitchface]

it's a bad night. outs are precious, and with a runner on base, even more precious. rarely is an out worth moving a runner.

 

Wow, do you watch games?

 

as for OBP being important, it is the single whole belief of the A's system to 9 OBP monsters...and exactly how many World Series' have they played in with that philosophy???

 

scoring runs matters, the other team not scoring runs matters more. OBP matters little.

 

I am sure he watches games - I am also sure you never watch the A's. Since you don't watch them, perhaps you should look up their stats before you display your ignorance.

[Mephistopheles]

Sure you want guys to get on base as the game/season progresses.. All I am saying is that OBP is somewhat over rated because of the computer age that our society has gotten to. When I hear that stat, it's a stat that fantasy baseball geeks use and that's probably one of the reasons why I don't have alot of use for it.

 

Guys get on base over ten times a game on average (maybe even more). What you do with those runners on base and how you get them in is how this game is won. That's why I'm not a big OBP fan because it's already built in that you have over ten runners on base per game (walks, hits, hit by pitch, errors, etc..).

 

I completel respect everyone's opinion and would love to talk about this during a rain delay some time.

 

In my opinion the biggest misconception about the value of OBP% is that it means the player is on base. That's essentially what it is, but it is NOT the value in it. Getting on base really has little to do with it's value. It's value is that it really is out percentage. The value in OBP is not making outs. You've only got 27 of them each game so you had better use them well.

 

as for OBP being important, it is the single whole belief of the A's system to 9 OBP monsters...and exactly how many World Series' have they played in with that philosophy???

 

scoring runs matters, the other team not scoring runs matters more. OBP matters little.

 

Do you know what the Yankees' offense from 1996-2000 was driven by? High on-base percentages. Sure preventing runs is half the game, but preventing OBP% (high K:BB) is just the inverse relationship of OBP%

 

At it's heart a high K:BB is the pitching variant of a high OBP%. They both do the same things - OBP. Lots of Ks = low BAA and that coupled with low walks equals a low OBP.

 

OBP% simply matters. Ask the Cubs.

Edited August 21, 2006 by Mephistopheles

[stitchface]

Guys get on base over ten times a game on average (maybe even more). What you do with those runners on base and how you get them in is how this game is won. That's why I'm not a big OBP fan because it's already built in that you have over ten runners on base per game (walks, hits, hit by pitch, errors, etc..).

 

 

wouldn't it follow that the more guys you have on base the more chances you have to do something good with them on base? Did you catch any of the red sox-yankees series? I'll present a little formula here for you to consider - you can work out the math - this is simply why obp is the single most important stat:

 

runs scored (per inning)= total plate appearances-LOB-3

 

consider that the maximum lob is always 3 - so what number can you control to the greatest degree as an offense? plate appearances. this also means that what you have said has some truth as LOBs can vary between 0 and 3. This is why slugging percentage also plays an important role.

 

the importance of OBP is not a product of fantasy baseball - its a product of simple math. if you don't make outs, you will keep scoring. ask the red sox after this weekend.

[CuseCubFan69]

Let's keep this nice debate on the issues and not any personal insults please. A lot of what has been said is pretty boarderline name calling so please lets just make our points and keep it at that.

 

Thank you.

[TruffleShuffle]

what a great thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

OBP is flawed. It does not include getting on base due to an error, or a fielder's choice. You are "on base" however. Exactly the reason why stats don't explain the whole game and by watching a ballgame you learn more then reading a box score. Otherwise there would be no reason to watch. To get a clear picture of the game AND the players playing you need to watch NOT read.

 

Are you trying to imply I don't watch games?

 

My guess is I've watched as many games as the majority of people on this forum this year.

 

Errr...no. What I said is my general opinion on the usage of stats to solely make a decision. i.e. Batter A is 3-6 against picher A but is batting .250 for the year. Batter B is hitting 1-6 against Pitcher A but is hitting .320 for the year. Lets play Batter A due to his awesome stats against Pitcher A.

 

Here, you're picking one of two different stats to work from. I'd mroe than likely go with Batter B (depending on how many plate appearances each has had this season) because he's a better hitter over the course of the season. I doubt too many would pick Batter A here.

[UK1679666180]

Errr...no. What I said is my general opinion on the usage of stats to solely make a decision. i.e. Batter A is 3-6 against picher A but is batting .250 for the year. Batter B is hitting 1-6 against Pitcher A but is hitting .320 for the year. Lets play Batter A due to his awesome stats against Pitcher A.

 

That still doesn't tell how well each hitter has done vs. each hitter. Even though A is 3-6, it could be a case of two of those hits being bloop singles rather than B who might have hit 3 line drives with two right at someone. it's an extremely limited sample to judge a hitter.

[stitchface]

mhuber's point seems to be that you can't judge a hitter on stats using 6 ABs as a sample size - I would agree with that point. someone should tell dusty. it would also make a difference if the one hit was a homerun and the others were infield singles.

 

contrary to many people's opinion, advancing runners, reaching on errors etc are statistics and can be tracked. they just aren't. anyone who has a BP subscription should be reading the report on baserunning - interesting stuff though by no means completely definitive.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

the importance of OBP is not a product of fantasy baseball - its a product of simple math. if you don't make outs, you will keep scoring. ask the red sox after this weekend.

 

QFT

 

Simply put, outs are the most valuable commodity in baseball. There are a limited number of them. If a batter can avoid making an out, then the inning is prolonged and the chance for runs is greatly increased.

[Mephistopheles]

Errr...no. What I said is my general opinion on the usage of stats to solely make a decision. i.e. Batter A is 3-6 against picher A but is batting .250 for the year. Batter B is hitting 1-6 against Pitcher A but is hitting .320 for the year. Lets play Batter A due to his awesome stats against Pitcher A.

 

Statistics 101:

 

The odds of a .250 hitter hitting at least .500 in 6 ABs is 16.9%

The odds of a .320 hitter hitting under .167 in 6 ABs is 37.8%

 

Those are some pretty big odds.

[abuck1220]

 

Guys get on base over ten times a game on average (maybe even more). What you do with those runners on base and how you get them in is how this game is won. That's why I'm not a big OBP fan because it's already built in that you have over ten runners on base per game (walks, hits, hit by pitch, errors, etc..)..

 

so you're saying that all teams get on base roughly the same number of times per game? because that's not true.

[wolf stansson]

All I am saying is that OBP is somewhat over rated

I agree. Not getting out is waaaay lame.

When I hear that stat, it's a stat that fantasy baseball geeks use and that's probably one of the reasons why I don't have alot of use for it.

Yeah man. Every fantasy league I've ever played in has obp as a stat.

 

Oh wait, no league I've ever played in has that as a stat. Never mind.

 

A bunch nerds like the fantasy geeks you talked about use computers to research crap like medicine, science, and technology. I don't have a lot of use for that stuff. If I get constant headaches, I'm not gonna go get a "CT Scan."

 

If I have horrible vision, I'm not going to get "laser surgery."

 

Basically, everything that I need to know, I learned when I was 6. Everything else is frivolous gobbily-[expletive] that can't in any way educate me further on a subject I'm interested or teach me anything of value that would help me along in life. Critical thinking is almost as lame as not getting out in baseball.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Almost.

[Mephistopheles]

You didn't need to word it that way.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Wow, I can't believe what happened to this thread in the couple of hours I took to eat supper and whatnot. I am utterly shocked at some of the things I've read.

 

I've been playing the game since I was 3. 29 years later, I still play ball whenever I get a chance, I coach, and I volunteer my services with friends and relatives of mine that are also either coaching or playing. I also most definitely consider myself to be a "stat geek". Why? It gives me an advantage. I know all of the ins and outs of the game based on my observations. I know that stats do not tell 100% of the story. However, I will rely on statistics more than my experience when it comes to every single important decision that needs to be made in a game.

 

One of the teams I've been coaching has lost exaclty 1 game in the past 2 seasons (37-1). When I started, I had a lot of parents questioning my techniques because I abandoned things like the sac bunt, I moved the really fast kid down in the lineup because he wasn't good at getting on base, etc. Just because something's always been done a certain way doesn't make it right.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

All I am saying is that OBP is somewhat over rated

I agree. Not getting out is waaaay lame.

When I hear that stat, it's a stat that fantasy baseball geeks use and that's probably one of the reasons why I don't have alot of use for it.

Yeah man. Every fantasy league I've ever played in has obp as a stat.

 

Oh wait, no league I've ever played in has that as a stat. Never mind.

 

A bunch nerds like the fantasy geeks you talked about use computers to research crap like medicine, science, and technology. I don't have a lot of use for that stuff. If I get constant headaches, I'm not gonna go get a "CT Scan."

 

If I have horrible vision, I'm not going to get "laser surgery."

 

Basically, everything that I need to know, I learned when I was 6. Everything else is frivolous gobbily-[expletive] that can't in any way educate me further on a subject I'm interested or teach me anything of value that would help me along in life. Critical thinking is almost as lame as not getting out in baseball.

 

Almost.

 

Come on, wolf. You know that that's way out of line.

 

I want to reiterate Cuse's post, there has been a lot of border-line stuff. This is a nice, interesting thread. Please stick to the rules, folks.

[imb]

All I am saying is that OBP is somewhat over rated

I agree. Not getting out is waaaay lame.

When I hear that stat, it's a stat that fantasy baseball geeks use and that's probably one of the reasons why I don't have alot of use for it.

Yeah man. Every fantasy league I've ever played in has obp as a stat.

 

Oh wait, no league I've ever played in has that as a stat. Never mind.

 

A bunch nerds like the fantasy geeks you talked about use computers to research crap like medicine, science, and technology. I don't have a lot of use for that stuff. If I get constant headaches, I'm not gonna go get a "CT Scan."

 

If I have horrible vision, I'm not going to get "laser surgery."

 

Basically, everything that I need to know, I learned when I was 6. Everything else is frivolous gobbily-[expletive] that can't in any way educate me further on a subject I'm interested or teach me anything of value that would help me along in life. Critical thinking is almost as lame as not getting out in baseball.

 

Almost.

 

Come on, wolf. You know that that's way out of line.

 

I want to reiterate Cuse's post, there has been a lot of border-line stuff. This is a nice, interesting thread. Please stick to the rules, folks.

 

Not a single thing in that post is anywhere near as inflammatory as "stat geek" and "fantasy baseball nerds" that a certain minor league announcer has used.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

All I am saying is that OBP is somewhat over rated

I agree. Not getting out is waaaay lame.

When I hear that stat, it's a stat that fantasy baseball geeks use and that's probably one of the reasons why I don't have alot of use for it.

Yeah man. Every fantasy league I've ever played in has obp as a stat.

 

Oh wait, no league I've ever played in has that as a stat. Never mind.

 

A bunch nerds like the fantasy geeks you talked about use computers to research crap like medicine, science, and technology. I don't have a lot of use for that stuff. If I get constant headaches, I'm not gonna go get a "CT Scan."

 

If I have horrible vision, I'm not going to get "laser surgery."

 

Basically, everything that I need to know, I learned when I was 6. Everything else is frivolous gobbily-[expletive] that can't in any way educate me further on a subject I'm interested or teach me anything of value that would help me along in life. Critical thinking is almost as lame as not getting out in baseball.

 

Almost.

 

Come on, wolf. You know that that's way out of line.

 

I want to reiterate Cuse's post, there has been a lot of border-line stuff. This is a nice, interesting thread. Please stick to the rules, folks.

 

Not a single thing in that post is anywhere near as inflammatory as "stat geek" and "fantasy baseball nerds" that a certain minor league announcer has used.

 

IMB has a point.

[fromthestretch]

Guys get on base over ten times a game on average (maybe even more). What you do with those runners on base and how you get them in is how this game is won. That's why I'm not a big OBP fan because it's already built in that you have over ten runners on base per game (walks, hits, hit by pitch, errors, etc..)..

 

Let's assume what you say is true...that every team gets on base an average of 10 times per game. In order to have an average, you need some teams getting on base more than that and some teams getting on base less. Don't you think if you were running a team it would be in your best interests to be one of the teams getting on base more than that to maximize your chances? If the rest of the league is getting on base an average of 10 times per game, then I want my team getting on base at least 11 times per game.

 

A couple points:

 

1. You can't score without first getting on base. Even a home run constitutes getting on base.

 

2. All this talk about batting average with RISP is pointless without recognizing the value of OBP. You can't have opportunities to bat with RISP if you don't get runners on base in the first place.

 

Getting on base is the first step in scoring runs. If you don't get on base, everything else is moot.

[jaxxradio]

UNCLE!!!!

 

Honestly, the conversation from yesterday was spirited, lively and unfortunately (and I blame myself for this) a bit too personal.

 

I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression of me, so I want to apologize to anyone I offended during the exchange. Ultimately, I wouldn't have a job in this business if it weren't for you fans.

 

The fans make this game great and that's why I love my job (even though I couldn't possibly call what I do for a living a job).

 

If I sounded like someone who was defensive, arrogant and a know it all, I do apologize. One of the reasons why I don't care for starting a debate online is that you don't get to see interaction with the person your bantering with.

 

Looking back on the forum/discussion, I would gladly like to take back alot of the words said. You people have welcomed me into your forum with open arms and the last thing I want to do is piss everybody off.

 

It is obvious we all have different opinions on how the game is won. I think pitching and defense make up the majority of the game. Other fans think OBP is more important. In the end, it's only baseball. It's not like we are trying to solve the problems in the Middle East (please don't start a discussion about that here, I'm begging you.. lol). I say we all get together, have a beer, watch a game and see if we can all get a better perspective on the game we ALL love.

 

Ron

[Outshined_One]

Thank you Ron. :D