From Baseball America: Cubs weak hitting lineup

[JonnyRed]

Sure, I would have liked to get more power than JJ in right field, but I disagree that the Cubs have a weak hitting lineup. We have two all-stars in MVP-candidate D-Lee and A-Ram (who looks ready to have a breakout year), one of the better leadoff hitters in the game and one of the better hitting catchers. Add in Murton and hopefully Walker, and I like this lineup. Baseball America tends to disagree. What do you guys think?

[NCCubFan]

It's not an exceptionally strong lineup, but I wouldn't categorize it as weak. There are a number of unknown factors (Pierre and Jones rebounding from off years, Lee avoiding a substantial regression, Murton and Cedeno producing for a full season), but there's potential for plenty of offense.

[UMFan83]

There was a time last year when I thought Lee and ARam were challenging Manny and Ortiz for the most powerful 3-4 in baseball. We'll just have to see if Lee declines much and ARam can stay healthy.

 

As for the rest of the lineup, I don't think we did much trying to get guys who can get on base more. At times the offense will be anemic, but at times will look powerful. Sound familiar?

[NCCubFan]

At times the offense will be anemic, but at times will look powerful. Sound familiar?

All too familiar. Win 10-0 one game, lose the next two games 2-1.

[rawaction]

Jones isn't exactly weak. He's averaging 22 HRs a season. I'm encouraged by Jones' spring and the fact that he had a huge jump in patience to .087 BB/PA last year. He's a strange hitter in the fact that he's at .279 for his career, but has been 30-35 points under that the last 2 year after being 30-35 points over the previous 2 years. If he can hit for his career average, while maintaining his walk rate, you're looking at a .279/.350/.480 type player. Not great, but it would probably put the Cubs in the top 1/3 of the NL offensively, instead of middle of the pack.

 

I think Pierre will be better in a contract year, but I don't see him going back to a .370 OBP guy. I'm hoping for .350 out of him. If Hairston/Walker can give the Cubs a reasonable .340ish out of 2B, and Murton can continue to do what he has shown he can do, the Cubs will be alright, regardless of what Cedeno does offensively.

[CubinNY]

I think the Cubs offense will be medicore once again. Not terrible but not great either. I think they will score about @ 20 to 40 less runs than last year. That is how I judge offesense by runs scored not team AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS.

[frostwyrm]

If everything goes right the offense could be good, but almost any team could say that. The O has the potential to be terrible if Jones/Pierre repeat their 2005 numbers and Murton/Cedeno tank. Lee could regress too, and the overrated Pierre won't even be much of a stealing threat if Neifi sees a lot of time in the 2 hole. Aram also has to be a lot healthier or everything falls apart.

[srbin84]

I think the only way the offense is weak is if Walker is traded and Cedeno and Murton are horrible and replaced with Neifi and Mabry/Grissom.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Jones isn't exactly weak. He's averaging 22 HRs a season. I'm encouraged by Jones' spring and the fact that he had a huge jump in patience to .087 BB/PA last year. He's a strange hitter in the fact that he's at .279 for his career, but has been 30-35 points under that the last 2 year after being 30-35 points over the previous 2 years. If he can hit for his career average, while maintaining his walk rate, you're looking at a .279/.350/.480 type player. Not great, but it would probably put the Cubs in the top 1/3 of the NL offensively, instead of middle of the pack.

 

I think Pierre will be better in a contract year, but I don't see him going back to a .370 OBP guy. I'm hoping for .350 out of him. If Hairston/Walker can give the Cubs a reasonable .340ish out of 2B, and Murton can continue to do what he has shown he can do, the Cubs will be alright, regardless of what Cedeno does offensively.

 

I thought I read somewhere (might have been right here on the board) that Jones' increased walk rate was pretty much attributable to an unusual increase in intentional walks. In any case, his performance this spring certainly does provide cause for optimism.

[Monco]

Jones isn't exactly weak. He's averaging 22 HRs a season. I'm encouraged by Jones' spring and the fact that he had a huge jump in patience to .087 BB/PA last year. He's a strange hitter in the fact that he's at .279 for his career, but has been 30-35 points under that the last 2 year after being 30-35 points over the previous 2 years. If he can hit for his career average, while maintaining his walk rate, you're looking at a .279/.350/.480 type player. Not great, but it would probably put the Cubs in the top 1/3 of the NL offensively, instead of middle of the pack.

 

I think Pierre will be better in a contract year, but I don't see him going back to a .370 OBP guy. I'm hoping for .350 out of him. If Hairston/Walker can give the Cubs a reasonable .340ish out of 2B, and Murton can continue to do what he has shown he can do, the Cubs will be alright, regardless of what Cedeno does offensively.

 

If Jones has a .350 OBP we'd all be happy.But hes been .320 with 120 k's.Cedeno and Murton are questions.140 AB'S by Murton is not a true indicator.The lineup has the potential to be very good but only time will tell.Injuries have to be considered.If Aram is out for awhile in comes Mabry.Then how does the lineup look?

[Backtobanks]

If everything goes right the offense could be good, but almost any team could say that. The O has the potential to be terrible if Jones/Pierre repeat their 2005 numbers and Murton/Cedeno tank. Lee could regress too, and the overrated Pierre won't even be much of a stealing threat if Neifi sees a lot of time in the 2 hole. Aram also has to be a lot healthier or everything falls apart.

 

Wow, talk about pessimism. If Konerko gets injured, Buerhle's arm falls off, Posednik breaks his leg, Garland and Dye regress, Thome and Contreras realize how old they are, and Williams trades Garland and Garcia for Jeff Fassero, the White Sox could be in trouble too.

[srbin84]

If everything goes right the offense could be good, but almost any team could say that. The O has the potential to be terrible if Jones/Pierre repeat their 2005 numbers and Murton/Cedeno tank. Lee could regress too, and the overrated Pierre won't even be much of a stealing threat if Neifi sees a lot of time in the 2 hole. Aram also has to be a lot healthier or everything falls apart.

 

Wow, talk about pessimism. If Konerko gets injured, Buerhle's arm falls off, Posednik breaks his leg, Garland and Dye regress, Thome and Contreras realize how old they are, and Williams trades Garland and Garcia for Jeff Fassero, the White Sox could be in trouble too.

 

I know this wasn't a White Sox post but half of those things are already happening.

[Ivy Walls]

Each year players usually deviate from the previous year or occassionally spike or degrade, there are many factors.

 

Also hitting is relational to a teams roster.

 

Cubs are uncertain but here are some factors to consider this year, how many are on one year contracts?

 

Pierre, Murton, Cedeno, Walker or Hairston, Lee (as of now), Blanco, Perez, Pagan or Grissom

 

Meaning only Ramirez (who is now in his chronological prime along with Pierre, Jones and Barrett), Barrett and Jones have multi year contracts.

 

So here is the following on paper I would project that Pierre will return to his career numbers with a FA year and chronological prime. Jones is unknown and a risk, Murton is unknown, Cedeno is unknown, Ramirez could move to career numbers, Walker/Hairston near career numbers and Lee within career areas.

 

Then of course the offense is relative to the needs based on pitching, this too is uncertain. Zambrano is approaching prime years, Maddux past his prime is reported and substantiated to be in best shape since 35, Rusch is meat, Williams is best shape but disappointing, Marshall is unknown, Wood is prime but returning injured, Miller (see Wood), then there is the bullpen.

 

On the whole I am optimistic, but ask me after 40 games.

[Monco]

Each year players usually deviate from the previous year or occassionally spike or degrade, there are many factors.

 

Also hitting is relational to a teams roster.

 

Cubs are uncertain but here are some factors to consider this year, how many are on one year contracts?

 

Pierre, Murton, Cedeno, Walker or Hairston, Lee (as of now), Blanco, Perez, Pagan or Grissom

 

Meaning only Ramirez (who is now in his chronological prime along with Pierre, Jones and Barrett), Barrett and Jones have multi year contracts.

 

So here is the following on paper I would project that Pierre will return to his career numbers with a FA year and chronological prime. Jones is unknown and a risk, Murton is unknown, Cedeno is unknown, Ramirez could move to career numbers, Walker/Hairston near career numbers and Lee within career areas.

 

Then of course the offense is relative to the needs based on pitching, this too is uncertain. Zambrano is approaching prime years, Maddux past his prime is reported and substantiated to be in best shape since 35, Rusch is meat, Williams is best shape but disappointing, Marshall is unknown, Wood is prime but returning injured, Miller (see Wood), then there is the bullpen.

 

On the whole I am optimistic, but ask me after 40 games.

 

Charlie Finley once said something like "give me 25 guys on the last year of their contract and i'll win you a championship".

[craig]

It's not an exceptionally strong lineup, but I wouldn't categorize it as weak. There are a number of unknown factors (Pierre and Jones rebounding from off years, Lee avoiding a substantial regression, Murton and Cedeno producing for a full season), but there's potential for plenty of offense.

 

We'll see in terms of actual scoring. It may be fine.

 

But in terms of power, there is good reason to envision it being unusually weak. Or having an unusual number of low-power hitters in the lineup.

 

Aram and Lee are the only true power hitters in the lineup. If those guys don't produce 75+ HR's, the HR-output could be pretty low.

 

Pierre, very low on the HR-power scale.

 

Cedeno/Neifi: low on the HR-power scale.

 

Hairston (if he's chosen as the primary 2B): low on the HR-power scale.

 

That leaves Murton, Jones, and Barrett. Barrett may be the best-hitting catcher in the league. But it's entirely possible that none of those three guys will hit 20 HR's this year. (Jones facing unfamiliar pitchers; lacking the benefit of the HomerDome, and probably having some spring HR's taken away by the spring Wrigley weather; supposedly realizing that his average has been so bad because he's been overswinging for HR's the last couple years, so fair chance that he'll cut back on his power swing...)

 

I think it's entirely likely that the Cubs will drop off significantly in team HR's, and after years being near the top-of-the-league in HR's, that they'll likely drop into the middle of the pack. perhaps worse. And certainly they'll be super dependent on Aram/Lee; if one of those guys gets hurt, this will really be thin in the HR-department.

 

Around half of the runs in the NL score on HR's in most of the last ten years. So a serious dip in HR-output, that's not a trivial thing. That said, they may be weaker in HR's but a lot stronger in terms of doubles and baserunning and perhaps OBP, etc.., and may come out similar or improved in OPS, and perhaps more efficient in terms of actually scoring runs, and perhaps doing so in game situations.

 

It will be interesting to see how the season plays. I think it's entirely possible that the offense will end up looking like an asset, one of the stronger ones in the league, and finish in the top 5 or so. I think it's also entirely possible that the offense will be a liability, below average. Certainly the dependance on Aram and Lee is acute; if one of those guys goes down, the offense really looks different.

[A New Era]

Jones facing unfamiliar pitchers; lacking the benefit of the HomerDome, and probably having some spring HR's taken away by the spring Wrigley weather; supposedly realizing that his average has been so bad because he's been overswinging for HR's the last couple years, so fair chance that he'll cut back on his power swing...

 

Hey if he's realized that and has got his head on straight, then I don't see that as a negative but a postive. Is ~5-10 less HR from Jones REALLY that important of a factor? If he gets it together this year and improves his average and OBP. I'll take a dozen triples to left over 12 HR swinging strikeouts.

[XZero771679666304]

As far as power goes, here is about what I think it is reasonable to expect:

 

Pierre - 1

Walker - 15

Lee - 40

Ramirez - 40

Jones - 25

Barrett - 18

Murton - 15

Cedeno - 5

 

Mabry - 5

Blanco - 5

Perez - 5

Hairston - 3

Grissom/Restovich - 7

 

That's 184 total, and I think that overall, that estimate may be conservative. 184 homers is a perfectly respectable team total.

[rawaction]

Jones facing unfamiliar pitchers; lacking the benefit of the HomerDome, and probably having some spring HR's taken away by the spring Wrigley weather; supposedly realizing that his average has been so bad because he's been overswinging for HR's the last couple years, so fair chance that he'll cut back on his power swing...

 

Hey if he's realized that and has got his head on straight, then I don't see that as a negative but a postive. Is ~5-10 less HR from Jones REALLY that important of a factor? If he gets it together this year and improves his average and OBP. I'll take a dozen triples to left over 12 HR swinging strikeouts.

 

FYI, Jones has typically shown more power on the road than in the HomerDome. 38 road HRs last 3 years vs. 25 in Minny, and about 40 points higher SLG on the road. I think Wrigley's a great place for LHs. When the wind blows in, you can still get one out down the RF line.

[Sec 511 Die-hard]

The Cubs' lineup is potentially bad, and potentially solid. There are WAY to many unknowns to forecast with this lineup.

[YearofDaCubs]

The Cubs' lineup is potentially bad, and potentially solid. There are WAY to many unknowns to forecast with this lineup.

Agreed.

[Jehrico]

I think the Cubs offense will be medicore once again. Not terrible but not great either. I think they will score about @ 20 to 40 less runs than last year. That is how I judge offesense by runs scored not team AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS.

 

As bad as our offense might be, it's improved over last year's disaster. For starters, we shouldn't be seeing Corey and Neifi ahead of DLee and Aramis in the lineup. Any combination of Pierre/Hairston/TWalk/Murton at the top of the lineup is a MASSIVE improvement in OBP in the one and two holes of the lineup from last year. As much as I didn't like the Jones signing, he's likely to do better than Burnitz. Murton will be better than Holla/Dubose were last year in LF too. No way we score 20-40 runs less than last year. I'd say more like 20-40 more than last year (which still isn't great).

[KaiserCesar]

I think the Cubs offense will be medicore once again. Not terrible but not great either. I think they will score about @ 20 to 40 less runs than last year. That is how I judge offesense by runs scored not team AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS.

 

As bad as our offense might be, it's improved over last year's disaster. For starters, we shouldn't be seeing Corey and Neifi ahead of DLee and Aramis in the lineup. Any combination of Pierre/Hairston/TWalk/Murton at the top of the lineup is a MASSIVE improvement in OBP in the one and two holes of the lineup from last year. As much as I didn't like the Jones signing, he's likely to do better than Burnitz. Murton will be better than Holla/Dubose were last year in LF too. No way we score 20-40 runs less than last year. I'd say more like 20-40 more than last year (which still isn't great).

 

The difference to this year is if everyone meets some pretty reasonable expectations, there aren't any holes in the lineup at all. Last year there were several holes in the lineup, some due to injury at times, but others just due to roster deficiency. You had Hollandsworth hitting below the Mendoza line, Patterson looking terrible, and Neifi proving the law of averages after an early season burst. I think the holes in the lineup were part of the reason the Cubs were bad in the less than 2 out situations. There were just too many guys who couldn't put solid wood on the ball and the opposing pitcher pitched around/Intentionally walked accordingly. The times when the holes in the lineup didn't backfire (Neifi's GS) were miraculous.

Edited March 26, 2006 by KaiserCesar

[TB_11]

I think the Cubs offense will be medicore once again. Not terrible but not great either. I think they will score about @ 20 to 40 less runs than last year. That is how I judge offesense by runs scored not team AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS.

 

As bad as our offense might be, it's improved over last year's disaster. For starters, we shouldn't be seeing Corey and Neifi ahead of DLee and Aramis in the lineup. Any combination of Pierre/Hairston/TWalk/Murton at the top of the lineup is a MASSIVE improvement in OBP in the one and two holes of the lineup from last year. As much as I didn't like the Jones signing, he's likely to do better than Burnitz. Murton will be better than Holla/Dubose were last year in LF too. No way we score 20-40 runs less than last year. I'd say more like 20-40 more than last year (which still isn't great).

 

Fair assessment. Two things I would say though are first that the upgrade from Corey and Neifi to Pierre and TBD at the top of the lineup will be slightly offset by a regression in Derrek's performance. If he can put up triple-crown worthy numbers for the season again we'll obviously take it, but I don't think we should expect it.

 

Also I'd say going from Burnitz to Jones is a wash in my opinion. They've put up pretty similar numbers over the past few years.

 

I expect us to put up score slightly more runs next year, but that's due more to the removal of awful offensive performances from the 2005 team.

[Sludgeworth21]

As far as power goes, here is about what I think it is reasonable to expect:

 

Pierre - 1

Walker - 15

Lee - 40

Ramirez - 40

Jones - 25

Barrett - 18

Murton - 15

Cedeno - 5

 

Mabry - 5

Blanco - 5

Perez - 5

Hairston - 3

Grissom/Restovich - 7

 

That's 184 total, and I think that overall, that estimate may be conservative. 184 homers is a perfectly respectable team total.

 

How many does Zambrano hit?

[Omar]

As far as power goes, here is about what I think it is reasonable to expect:

 

Pierre - 1

Walker - 15

Lee - 40

Ramirez - 40

Jones - 25

Barrett - 18

Murton - 15

Cedeno - 5

 

Mabry - 5

Blanco - 5

Perez - 5

Hairston - 3

Grissom/Restovich - 7

 

That's 184 total, and I think that overall, that estimate may be conservative. 184 homers is a perfectly respectable team total.

 

With Pierre at Wrigley, I can expect a few more HRs out of him.