NSBB 2006 NCAA Mock Selection Committee

[Derwood]

Cincy didn't have a very strong resume. 12 losses, 4-8 v. RPI top 50, 5-5 in their last 10, 5-8 Road/Neutral, plus losing in the first round of their conference tourney.

 

They played tougher top 50 teams than Air Force did and lost to the eventual BE champion in the last second. Show me how Air Force is better.

 

Air Force at least has wins against Miami and and Georgia Tech, two decent power conference teams. I think they key difference is that while they lost their last game, they didn't get blown out, like SMS did, I'm guessing. *shrug*

 

I get a kick out of that. A M-M plays 2 average or below average ACC teams and get more credit than Florida St does for beating Duke and going over 500 in the ACC. I'm not arguing with you coach about this justwondering how the committee came to the conclusion on how Air Force is better than Cincy, Florida St, Michigan or Missouri St.

 

and despite the non-conference light-weights, how is FSU's SOS so bad when they have to play over 1/2 their games against the ACC?

 

I'm guessing it's becuase they are scheduling teams that are very very weak, like Alcorn State, Louisiana Monroe, Texas Southern, Bowling Green, Stetson, and Campbell.

 

right, I know, but so do many people (need I drag out the Illini's non-con games?). I'm just saying playing Duke twice automatically gives them a tougher schedule than most MM or small conference teams

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cincy didn't have a very strong resume. 12 losses, 4-8 v. RPI top 50, 5-5 in their last 10, 5-8 Road/Neutral, plus losing in the first round of their conference tourney.

 

They played tougher top 50 teams than Air Force did and lost to the eventual BE champion in the last second. Show me how Air Force is better.

 

Air Force at least has wins against Miami and and Georgia Tech, two decent power conference teams. I think they key difference is that while they lost their last game, they didn't get blown out, like SMS did, I'm guessing. *shrug*

 

I get a kick out of that. A M-M plays 2 average or below average ACC teams and get more credit than Florida St does for beating Duke and going over 500 in the ACC. I'm not arguing with you coach about this justwondering how the committee came to the conclusion on how Air Force is better than Cincy, Florida St, Michigan or Missouri St.

 

and despite the non-conference light-weights, how is FSU's SOS so bad when they have to play over 1/2 their games against the ACC?

 

I'm guessing it's becuase they are scheduling teams that are very very weak, like Alcorn State, Louisiana Monroe, Texas Southern, Bowling Green, Stetson, and Campbell.

 

Plus, out of their 17 conference games(16 + tourney), 11 of those were worse than 75 in the RPI.

[Coach C]

Cincy didn't have a very strong resume. 12 losses, 4-8 v. RPI top 50, 5-5 in their last 10, 5-8 Road/Neutral, plus losing in the first round of their conference tourney.

 

They played tougher top 50 teams than Air Force did and lost to the eventual BE champion in the last second. Show me how Air Force is better.

 

Air Force at least has wins against Miami and and Georgia Tech, two decent power conference teams. I think they key difference is that while they lost their last game, they didn't get blown out, like SMS did, I'm guessing. *shrug*

 

I get a kick out of that. A M-M plays 2 average or below average ACC teams and get more credit than Florida St does for beating Duke and going over 500 in the ACC. I'm not arguing with you coach about this justwondering how the committee came to the conclusion on how Air Force is better than Cincy, Florida St, Michigan or Missouri St.

 

and despite the non-conference light-weights, how is FSU's SOS so bad when they have to play over 1/2 their games against the ACC?

 

I'm guessing it's becuase they are scheduling teams that are very very weak, like Alcorn State, Louisiana Monroe, Texas Southern, Bowling Green, Stetson, and Campbell.

 

right, I know, but so do many people (need I drag out the Illini's non-con games?). I'm just saying playing Duke twice automatically gives them a tougher schedule than most MM or small conference teams

 

You've just got to be really clever about scheduling your pansies. Make sure that you schedule the 1st or 2nd place finisher out of the Southland conference or the Big Sky instead of #7 or 8.

 

Ok, so generally, (leaving out the home-road distinction for the sake of simplicity) RPI= 1. Your win pct (25%), 2. Your opponents' win pct (50%), and 3. your opponents' opponents' win pct (25%).

 

Here's Mizzou St.'s nonconference opponents for example

_______________________

N. Illinois RPI 126---(15-10; 1st in Mid-American Conf.-West)

Ark. St (twice) RPI 224--(10-18; 3rd Sun Belt West)

Ga. Southern RPI 161--(18-9; 1st in Southern Conf.-South)

T A&M C-C--RPI 202--(16-8; Independent)

Oral Roberts--RPI 131--(17-11; Mid Con Conf.T-1st)

Detroit--RPI 180--(14-16; T 3rd Horizon Lg)

Arkansas (L) RPI 50--(20-8; 3rd, SEC West)

Wisc-Milwaukee--RPI 58 (18-8; 1st Horizon Lg)

___________________________________

 

For a nonconference RPI of #6 in the country. Yet that's all the teams they played. It's based purely on record. They went (8-1) against this schedule, so that's 25%. and then if you add up the records, then that's (128-88) a 60% win pct., which is 50% of the RPI formula.

 

Let's compare that to a team that did a poor job scheduling their "pansies". How about Kansas (RPI 41)?

__________________________________

Idaho St. RPI 201--(11-14; T-last in Big Sky)

Arizona (L) RPI 18--(18-10; 4th in PAC-10)

Arkansas (L) RPI 50--(20-8; 3rd, SEC West)

Nevada (L) RPI 27--(22-5; 1st WAC)

W. Illinois RPI 321--(5-20; 8th Mid-Con Conf.)

St. Joseph's (L)RPI 46--(14-12; 5th Atlantic-10)

California RPI 61--(17-9; 3rd Pac-10)

Pepperdine RPI 242 (7-20; last West Coast Conf.)

N. Colorado RPI 327 (3-24; Independent)

N. Orleans RPI 254 (8-18; 5th, Sun Belt West)

Yale RPI 190 (15-13; T-3rd Ivy League)

Kentucky RPI 31 (19-10; T-2nd SEC East)

_____________________________________

 

For a nonconference RPI of #138 in the country. They went 8-4 against this slate for the first 25%. Then adding up thier records, you get (159-163) a 49.3% win pct. for the second 50%. Scheduling a team like N. Colorado (3-24) in this regard kills this stat. A RPI of 327. If they had just replaced them with Hofstra (22-5) for example, they would be at (178-144) and probably at least be in the top 100 in nonconference RPI.

 

Additionally, for the RPI, scheduling a team like Kentucky at 19-10 gets you the nearly same benefit in the first 2 categories as Tx A& M Corpus Christi, and as long as that team didn't schedule too poorly, then the 3rd category shouldn't hurt you too badly. Not to mention you don't take the risk of losing and hurting the first category (which offsets the 3rd a bit)

 

So, from what I can tell, If you do a good job of scheduling the right pansies, you can make out like a bandit. Basically, I guess the key is just to not schedule the big time losers.

[Derwood]

I just snooped around the NIT website and found out how they are doing the 40 team field this year:

 

1. Four "regions" of 10 teams, seeded 1-10.

2. First round has 7 play 8 and 9 play 10 in each region.

3. Second round is now down to 32, with the 7/8 winner playing the #2 seed, while the 9/10 winner plays the #1 seed.

 

http://www.nit.org is the website. Picks are announced around 9pm tonight on ESPNU. Some teams have automatic invites already, as any team that won it's regular season conference but lost in their conference tourney (and didn't get picked for the NCAA tourney) gets the auto-bid. Lipscomb, for example.

[Derwood]

okay, i'm probably the only one here who cares, but i'm annoyed that it's now 9:30 and no NIT brackets yet. Unlike most of you, I don't have the good fortune of rooting for schools good enough for the real tourney :x

[Transmogrified Tiger]

okay, i'm probably the only one here who cares, but i'm annoyed that it's now 9:30 and no NIT brackets yet. Unlike most of you, I don't have the good fortune of rooting for schools good enough for the real tourney :x

 

I have ESPNU here at school and it's been a black screen for several hours now.

[Coach C]

okay, i'm probably the only one here who cares, but i'm annoyed that it's now 9:30 and no NIT brackets yet. Unlike most of you, I don't have the good fortune of rooting for schools good enough for the real tourney :x

 

Maybe it meant 9:00 CT/10:00 ET? I guess not, since I found the bracket.

 

http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/genrel/auto_pdf/cumulative-stats

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

okay, i'm probably the only one here who cares, but i'm annoyed that it's now 9:30 and no NIT brackets yet. Unlike most of you, I don't have the good fortune of rooting for schools good enough for the real tourney :x

 

Hey, dont' feel too bad. I went to a college that wasn't even good enough to make the Big East tournament. NIT would take a miracle right now. Um, Go Demons?

[Derwood]

okay, i'm probably the only one here who cares, but i'm annoyed that it's now 9:30 and no NIT brackets yet. Unlike most of you, I don't have the good fortune of rooting for schools good enough for the real tourney :x

 

Maybe it meant 9:00 CT/10:00 ET? I guess not, since I found the bracket.

 

http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/genrel/auto_pdf/cumulative-stats

 

Thanks! Too bad the frigging NIT homepage doesn't even have it on the main page.

[Derwood]

Your NIT teams (some of you guys have interest I know):

 

REGION 1:

 

1. Maryland

2. St. Joe's

3. Hofstra

4. Colorado

5. Old Dominion

6. Nebraska

7. Penn St.

8. Rutgers

9. Mahattan

10. Fairley Dickinson

 

REGION 2:

 

1. Michigan

2. Creighton

3. Miami (FL)

4. Vanderbilt

5. Notre Dame

6. Oklahoma St.

7. Temple

8. Akron

9. UTEP

10. Lipscomb

 

REGION 3:

 

1. Louisville

2. Missouri St.

3. Houston

4. Clemson

5. La. Tech

6. BYU

7. Stanford

8. Virginia

9. N. Arizona

10. Deleware St.

 

REGION 4:

 

1. Cincinnati

2. Florida St.

3. S. Carolina

4. Minnesota

5. Wake Forest

6. W. Kentucky

7. Miami (OH)

8. Butler

9. Charlotte

10. Ga. Southern

 

Region 4 looks the toughest. I'm just glad PSU got in...they are turning things around and deserved another game. They get Rutgers at home (cool). Notre Dame gets Vandy at home. Any other schools of note for all you alumni out there?

[UMFan83]

Hell yeah my scUM Wolverines aim to win their third NIT title in 10 years! (only 2 that count) Pathetic.

 

All 3 years we were a bubble team that was one of the first teams left out of the NCAA tourney. If that doesn't prove that the NCAA is biased against UM, that I don't know what to tell you.

 

But yeah Air Force totally had a strong schedule.

[Flames24Rulz]

well NIU didn't make the NIT (figures). Go Mizzou St and Creighton..hopefully Mizzou St can show the committee that they were much deserving of the tourament than Air Force and Utah St.

[Mizzou]

well NIU didn't make the NIT (figures). Go Mizzou St and Creighton..hopefully Mizzou St can show the committee that they were much deserving of the tourament than Air Force and Utah St.

Please, please, PLEASE never refer to them as Mizzou State again.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

well NIU didn't make the NIT (figures). Go Mizzou St and Creighton..hopefully Mizzou St can show the committee that they were much deserving of the tourament than Air Force and Utah St.

Please, please, PLEASE never refer to them as Mizzou State again.

 

Just like the commercials say, there's only one Mizzou.

[snoodmonger]

well NIU didn't make the NIT (figures). Go Mizzou St and Creighton..hopefully Mizzou St can show the committee that they were much deserving of the tourament than Air Force and Utah St.

Please, please, PLEASE never refer to them as Mizzou State again.

 

Just like the commercials say, there's only one Mizzou.

 

 

 

 

...

[Mark_R]

Snood, for some wacky reason, I have Kansas in the elite 8.

 

Must be all the J-Wright manlove :)

 

Btw, are he and Rush sticking around next year?

[SouthSideRyan]

This is the crack smokingest job by the selection committee I've ever seen. And Cuse, enough with the straw men, NOBODY thinks Air Force belongs.

 

Problems with the bracket from my point of view:

 

Air Force gets in??

 

Utah St. gets in??

 

George Washington an 8??

 

NC Wilmington a 9??(Too high)

 

Syracuse a 5????

 

LSU a 4??(Too low)

 

San Diego St. an 11??? (too high)

 

UCLA AN [expletive] 2?????

 

FLORIDA A 3???

 

NEVADA A 5???

 

[expletive] TENNESSEE AN [expletive] 2??? F!!!!

 

MONTANA A 12???

 

Heading in I was confident that U of I if they played their best game could beat any team besides UConn. They drew UConn in the sweet 16. Awful, just awful.

 

I'm really struggling to see how UNC's body of work is better than U of I's.

 

Kansas beat nobody until today and is a 4.

 

Indiana as a 6 is just bat**** crazy.

 

I've never been so angry about a bracket without regards to my favorite teams.

 

I can't wait for No. Iowa to knock off Georgetown, Wichita to beat Seton Hall, and Bradley to beat Kansas Unfortunately the burden of proof on those 3 teams is to win 3 more games after that. While all Kansas, Seton Hall and Georgetown have to do is win that 1 to prove that mid-majors suck. After all Seton Hall was in the Final 4 15 years ago.

[Productive Outs]

ugh... if Kentucky beats UAB (that's a pretty big if), they have to play UConn in the second round. that will be ugly.

[Coach C]

Kansas beat nobody until today and is a 4.

 

Buuuzzzztttt. I'm sorry, but the answer is wrong.

 

California, Kentucky, Oklahoma to name a few. Sure they got blown out at Austin aganist Texas, but then, their run at the Big XII pretty much put that to rest.

 

Not to mention that KU's defense is forcing opponents to shot 36.6% from the field.

[rawaction]

This is the crack smokingest job by the selection committee I've ever seen. And Cuse, enough with the straw men, NOBODY thinks Air Force belongs.

 

Problems with the bracket from my point of view:

 

Air Force gets in??

 

Utah St. gets in??

 

George Washington an 8??

 

NC Wilmington a 9??(Too high)

 

Syracuse a 5????

 

LSU a 4??(Too low)

 

San Diego St. an 11??? (too high)

 

UCLA AN [expletive] 2?????

 

FLORIDA A 3???

 

NEVADA A 5???

 

[expletive] TENNESSEE AN [expletive] 2??? F!!!!

 

MONTANA A 12???

 

Heading in I was confident that U of I if they played their best game could beat any team besides UConn. They drew UConn in the sweet 16. Awful, just awful.

 

I'm really struggling to see how UNC's body of work is better than U of I's.

 

Kansas beat nobody until today and is a 4.

 

Indiana as a 6 is just bat**** crazy.

 

I've never been so angry about a bracket without regards to my favorite teams.

 

I can't wait for No. Iowa to knock off Georgetown, Wichita to beat Seton Hall, and Bradley to beat Kansas Unfortunately the burden of proof on those 3 teams is to win 3 more games after that. While all Kansas, Seton Hall and Georgetown have to do is win that 1 to prove that mid-majors suck. After all Seton Hall was in the Final 4 15 years ago.

 

I don't understand why everyone has a problem with UCLA as a #2 seed. I think they are better teams than any of the #3's. Actually, I think all the 4's are better than all the 3's.

 

I pretty much agree with everything you said (except Kansas). I was hoping IU would beat OSU to give them a 7-seed. They lose that game and end up with a 6....3 seeds better than Wisconsin who tied with them in conference and split the single season matchup with them. IU had a similar bad streak as UW, but had theirs in the middle of the season.

[SouthSideRyan]

Actually, upon review of my 1-65 rankings I had Kansas as a 5, so I guess it's not that bad. I'm not really impressed by any of OK, UK, or Cal though which is why I said they hadn't beaten anybody.

 

Teams I had more than 1 seed off by my rankings

 

LSU(2 instead of 4)

Illinois (2 instead of 4)

Michigan St.(3 instead of 6)

UCLA(4 instead of 2)

Marquette(4 instead of 7)

GW(4 instead of 8)

Tennessee(5 instead of 2)

Georgetown(5 instead of 7)

Florida(6 instead of 3)

Wisconsin(6 instead of 9)

N. Iowa(7 instead of 10)

Syracuse(8 instead of 5)

SIU(9 instead of 11)

Zona(10 instead of 8)

Missouri St.(10 instead of OUT)

Bradley(10 instead of 13)

Nevada(10 instead of 5)

Penn(11 instead of 15)

Winthrop(11 instead of 15)

UNC-Wilmington(11 instead of 9)

Hofstra(12 instead of OUT)

Cal(12 instead of 7)

UW-Milwaukee(13 instead of 11)

Cincy(13 instead of OUT)

San Diego St.(13 instead of 11)

Oral Roberts(14 instead of 16)

Pacific(15 instead of 13)

Montana(15 instead of 12)

 

28 teams I had seeded 2 spots or more off. Bear in mind our selections were based on how we felt it should be put together, not how they would be put together, so this is more to demonstrate just how pissed I am about how the seedings turned out. Also gives oppurtunity for everyone to fire on me for stupid things like MSU as a 3 and Marquette as a 4 in the way that I fired on the actual committee.

 

Our committee as a whole missed on 3 with Seton Hall, and the horrendous choices of Air Force and Utah St. taking the spots of Missouri St., Hofstra, and Cincinnatti. IIRC, Utah St. wasn't voted as even a potential bubble team by a single one of the 9 of us that did this.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Pat Forde on the lashing that CBS gave the committee

[snoodmonger]

Snood, for some wacky reason, I have Kansas in the elite 8.

 

Must be all the J-Wright manlove :)

 

Btw, are he and Rush sticking around next year?

 

I'm pretty sure Wright will stay, as he has no jumper and won't be able to play the four in the pros. A few weeks ago I would've said Rush would definitely go, but it seems like he's got a lot to work on. he disappearssometimes, and he has trouble creating if you make him go left. However, with the weak draft, he still might be a top 20 pick, and if he is, it doesn't make much sense to stay.

[Flames24Rulz]

i think it's safe to say our committee did a better job than the selection committee this year.

[SouthSideRyan]

Me throwing darts would've done a better job. And I'm not a particular good darts player.