Matthew Trueblood

Jesse Rogers dropped an article this morning loaded with a lot of juicy rumors, including a repeated, seemingly thematic return to Shohei Ohtani as the focal point of the Cubs' offseason. That's awfully juicy, in itself, but Rogers also mentions that the Cubs are much less likely to retain Cody Bellinger than to sign Ohtani. That sentence, with the embedded implication that they have some measurable, significant chance to sign Ohtani at all, is exciting, but it's also newsworthy for the implication that Bellinger and Scott Boras are more likely to find their payday elsewhere--an idea on which Rogers then expands quite a bit. Already, there's more smoke than I might have expected there to be around the Cubs and Ohtani. That doesn't mean we should sound the fire alarms yet. No one is saying they're the favorites for him. It's just becoming clear how much they will try, and that their offseason could very well turn on their pursuit of him. Other notes in here, by the way, address Pete Alonso's potential availability (with Christopher Morel as a centerpiece going the other way; that seems improbable to me, but it's compelling) and the notion of a Cubs-Brewers trade involving Corbin Burnes (whoa). It's a fun little digest of rumors for a Thursday morning. Photo credit: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports View full rumor

We've already covered 20 players I think would be good fits for the Cubs (on various-sized deals, and in various ways) in MLB free agency this year. Now, we're into the top 30 on this team-specific ranking. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports For more information on the specific nature of this exercise (and how it differs from, say, rankings of all free agents via MLB Trade Rumors or other news outlets), and to catch up on the names already bandied about, check out the first two pieces in this series. Once you've done so, you're ready to read up on the next 10 players I'm rolling out. Nos. 41-50 Nos. 31-40 30. Tommy Pham, LF/DH Pham can hit. He's always been able to hit. Denied any kind of regular playing time until a relatively advanced age, he's gotten old on us now, but he can still hit. After a deadline trade from the disappointing Mets to the floundering Diamondbacks, he gave that team some newfound competitive juice and helped them surge back into the playoff picture and deep into October. He's respected throughout the game for his fire and for his plate discipline, and few players work harder. Here's the thing, though: he's crazy. Tommy Pham is crazy, and that makes bringing him into any clubhouse a bit of a risk. Whether the Cubs are comfortable with that risk will probably depend as much on their faith in Craig Counsell's stabilizing influence and on their background work on the guy as on their feelings of needing another right-handed bat for their outfield and DH mix. 29. Brent Suter, LHP Reunite Counsell with one of his most unlikely former relief aces. Then, stand back and watch the magic happen. Suter is as soft-tossing as it comes, especially for a reliever, but no one in baseball better neutralizes power on contact, and his changeup misses bats as well as any flamethrower's wicked slider. Suter would fill an obvious need for both bulk and a southpaw in the pen, and he's one of the brightest, most conscientious people in baseball. No player has been a more vocal activist in the area of global climate change, and while that's not necessarily a reason to sign a free agent, it's a reason to feel even better about it if they sign. 28. Jorge Soler, DH/OF Soler's initial tenure with the Cubs was more full of promise than of production, and he's hardly become a bastion of consistency since being traded for Wade Davis seven years ago. Yet, he's just the kind of thunderous middle-of-the-order bat the Cubs need, and he just opted out of his deal with the Marlins. If Soler could stomach the cold of Chicago in spring this time around, and if he can be had at a price that reflects the risk that he'll get hurt, he's well worth bringing back. It's not unfair to think of him, at this point, as Giancarlo Stanton redux. Stanton stayed healthy more often, but when he is healthy, Soler hits for similarly terrifying power, draws walks at a similarly impressive rate, and affects the game even from the on-deck circle in the same way. 27. Hector Neris, RHP As Matt Ostrowski recently wrote, bringing in Counsell is a good reason to invest in the bullpen, not an excuse to avoid doing so. Neris doesn't throw as hard as he once did, and he tends to issue too many free passes, but he's a swing-and-miss stud, thanks to a nasty splitter and an improved ability to elevate the four-seamer in order to set it up. Thanks to that splitter, Neris tends to sport fairly neutral platoon splits. He'd be an upgrade over Mark Leiter, Jr. in the same role, pushing Leiter down the depth chart and giving the team some reasonably-priced bullpen coverage. 26. Nick Martinez, RHP It's not quite kin to Neris's splitter, but Martinez has a nasty changeup of his own. He fits his into a pitch mix about five weapons deep, and uses all those offerings in fairly even shares, even when working in multi-inning relief. He was an extremely versatile, valuable weapon for the Padres over the last two seasons. Pitchers who are comfortable working in relief and as starters (and who can move freely between the two roles without deterioration) have some special value that goes beyond their raw numbers, just as a position player who is willing and able to move around the diamond defensively or provide good at-bats off the bench has. Martinez is likely to seek out a place where he can open the season as a full-fledged starter, and the Cubs might not be able to offer him that guarantee, but he'd ben a great utility pitcher for Counsell's staff. 25. Jeimer Candelario, 3B/1B In a recent podcast appearance, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score mentioned that the Cubs haven't been in touch with Cnadelario's agent since the end of the seasons, and that he senses that Candelario's representation feels disrespected or deprioritized because of that. I mention that only to say this: don't put too much stock into tidbits like these. The factual premise of a report like this is nearly always true, but very often, some inference or conclusion drawn therefrom swallows up that premise, and those inferences and conclusions are often spurious. I can confirm that the Cubs and Candelario have not had direct contact since the end of the season. I wouldn't assign any deeper meaning to that, though, than to observe that the team does not have Candelario at the very top of either their third-base or their first-base options list this winter. Surely, you already knew that. It doesn't mean that the switch-hitting, fine-fielding two-time Cub might not rise to the top of one of those options lists in a month. I don't think Candelario is off the team's radar permanently, or that his agent would spurn any renewed advances. It's just not the ideal scenario for either side, at this point. Candelario wants to find someone who sees him as a star. The Cubs want a star. It's possible that neither of them will get exactly what they want, and in that case, they could reunite happily and salubriously. 24. Michael Wacha, RHP Like his Padres teammate Martinez, Wacha threw his changeup more than any other pitch in his repertoire last year. That was even true against righties, which seems crazy, but it worked for both hurlers. In Wacha's case, it's certainly not a big surprise. He's always had an excellent cambio, with both fade and tumble. As he surpasses a decade of big-league service, he needs that pitch more all the time, but his velocity hasn't fallen off badly, or anything. The Cubs would be extremely comfortable working with an arsenal like his, and while there's little reason to think they could unlock another level from him, there's also none to believe that he'll collapse on the spot. His ERAs the last two years have markedly outstripped his expected numbers, which is why the Padres found no takers in trade and had to simply decline his two-year, $32-million option. He could make a very similar amount on the open market, though, and that would be a fine price for the Cubs. 23. Brandon Belt, 1B You have to see Belt through the lens of what he does well, rather than what he does poorly. He's a great, incredibly patient left-handed power hitter. And that's all. He's not going to suddenly unlock the ability to hit for average. He's not going to become a Fielding Bible Award-caliber first baseman again at age 36. None of that is necessary, though. Even as a DH who only occasionally dusts off his first baseman's mitt, and even if he's so assiduously protected from left-handed pitchers that he doesn't qualify for the batting title, Belt can have huge value. Because he hits everything in the air, he won't see his power disappear overnight. Because he even hits his ground balls at notably high launch angles (for grounders), he belongs to the class of hitters who benefited (and will continue to benefit) from the elimination of the shift. He would be a stellar addition to the middle of the order against right-handed pitchers. 22. Jack Flaherty, RHP During the brief window in which he pitched to Cy Young-caliber results, it felt like Flaherty was more than the sum of his parts--like he was finding some improbable and slightly unsustainable ways to converge his pitches and skills into a higher level of overall performance. Perhaps, then, he's never going to be an ace again. On the other hand, as his career has come unglued in the past few years, he's been just as plainly less than the sum of his parts. He's a great athlete with a feel for spin and good control (though, especially on his fastball, insufficient command), and yet, there have been long stretches during which opposing hitters have positively pummeled him. If he's been humbled at all by his recent misfortune, he's now one of the game's best possible reclamation projects. He doesn't need a new pitch, even. He just needs to radically reimagine and change the way he uses the ones he already has. The Cubs aren't baseball's leaders at that kind of optimization, but they're average at it, and average would be good enough to get plenty of value out of Flahety on a short- or medium-term deal. 21. Teoscar Hernandez, RF/DH Multiple outlets project Hernandez to sign a four-year deal worth $80 million. That's probably more than the Cubs would pay for him. It's probably more than they should pay, too. Hernandez would have to squeeze into their plans in a slightly awkward way. He'd be the regular DH, but rotating into each corner outfield spot at times to spell Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. That's not an unusual arrangement in the modern game, but having three guys with annual salaries around $20 million doing it is living dangerously, and perhaps not living well enough to justify the peril. Should Hernandez's market not materialize to that extent, though, he quickly becomes interesting. He's a good athlete, with speed and a rocket arm. He hammers the ball with regularity, though it comes with plenty of strikeouts. He would provide an exciting and dangerous wrinkle to the middle of the batting order. It's just a matter of whether the price is right. Who jumps out to you as a good fit, from this list? Who am I a dope for including? Let's continue to kick around ideas for the Cubs to make news on the hot stove. View full article

As the offseason takes full effect, we'll soon see significant player movement begin. It's a good time to continue our countdown of the 50 best fits for the Cubs in free agency. Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports I'm attempting a unique (but, I think, a valuable) balancing act with this exercise. Ranking free agents from a global, league-wider perspective smooths too many important places where there's real friction preventing a given player from fitting what a team needs. Focusing on what the Cubs need and how they'll look to allocate resources this winter brings the hot stove into much clearer focus for us. You can check out the players I ranked 41-50 in this narrow way here. Now, here come the next 10. 40. Carlos Santana, 1B/DH Sooner or later, Santana will give way and surrender to Father Time. He's put up an exceptional fight against him so far, though. For a decade and a half, now, he's put up superb walk totals and hit enough home runs to be a competent first baseman. He's also one of the better defenders in the league at that position, even as he creeps up on 40 years of age. A switch-hitter, he'd be a nice, versatile piece in the lower portion of the heart of a Cubs lineup that ends up featuring a big bat other than Cody Bellinger. The team probably will and should aim higher, but Santana is the kind of backup plan who wouldn't feel deflating, if something else fell through. 39. Emilio Pagan, RHP An exemplar of the unpredictability of relief pitching, Pagan has been a star-caliber set-up man for long stretches during his career, but he's also been borderline unusable over long periods. Home runs are his biggest bugaboo, but on occasion, he also issues too many walks, the same way the man who saw Death in Baghdad and fled to Samarra only found Death waiting for him there. When he's right, though, Pagan is nasty. His cutter is the kind of pitch the Cubs' pitching brain trust would love to redeploy, and from which they would expect big results. 38. Kevin Pillar, OF As a starter, he's slightly underwhelming, now that he's lost a step in the outfield and is no longer a plus center fielder. He can still patrol that spot on a part-time basis, though, and the relatively small center fields of the NL Central would be a great fit for him in that regard. Offensively, he's a right-handed hitter who hammers lefty pitching. That would make him a nice little platoon partner to Pete Crow-Armstrong and Mike Tauchman, to whatever extent each of them end up claiming playing time in center field in 2024, but Pillar would gain a little extra value by being able to spell Ian Happ (a switch-hitter who will never be good against lefties), as well. 37. Erick Fedde, RHP The former Nationals first-round pick is coming back to the States after a year in the Korean Baseball Organization, with an overhauled repertoire and some very impressive results to recommend him. He heavily featured a new sweeper overseas in 2023, and learned to pitch with that as the anchor of his repertoire, rather than being overly fastball-forward. He's no Kyle Hendricks, but he doesn't throw hard, so his comfort with more evenly mixing four or five pitches could be the key to whatever success he finds as he returns to MLB. As a relatively low-cost upside play for the back end of the rotation, he could be a great bargain. This fit is probably a contingent one, though, in that the Cubs would only need or want him at his likely asking price if they were to trade a depth starter like Javier Assad in a move to bring in a high-impact bat. 36. Joe Kelly, RHP On the cusp of his age-36 season, Kelly still feels like an extraordinarily volatile pitcher--like no one in the game has really figured him out yet. That includes hitters. He had the highest strikeout rate of his career in 2023. It didn't render irrelevant his persistent control problems, but Kelly is a pretty solid and occasionally overpowering middle reliever. He won't be healthy all season, but he won't come at a huge cost, and come September or October, his triple-digit heat is a weapon against any caliber of hitter. It was interesting to see him make a committed switch from the curveball to the slider as his principal breaking pitch this season. 35. Sean Manaea, LHP It was a mild surprise to see Manaea opt out of a deal that would have paid him $12 million to pitch for the Giants in 2024. The sensible inference is that he wants multi-year security, and while giving it to him sounds a bit overexuberant at first blush, there are reasons to consider it plausible. A Northwest Indiana product, he'd be coming closer to home than his pro career has ever brought him before, and he's shown an ability to be effective in a swingman role. As the Cubs try to guarantee sufficient depth in both the rotation and the bullpen, he seems like a candidate to kill two birds with one hulking stone. 34. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP It's not clear whether anyone is allowed to sign Lopez without also signing Lucas Giolito, who has moved with him each time either has changed organizations during their professional careers. With or without his hip attachment, however, Lopez is an exciting potential addition to the bullpen. He has an electric fastball-slider combination, and while it's not so different from those of Julian Merryweather or Adbert Alzolay as to feel like an entirely different thing, it would be great to add another player of that type to the relief corps--to hedge against injury or regression by either of those two, and to replace the good innings Michael Fulmer gave the Cubs in 2023. Lopez will probably command a multi-year deal at a non-negligible salary, but whether that's a hurdle depends on where else the Cubs are able or willing to spend money. 33. Adam Duvall, OF If Patrick Wisdom were fractionally more consistent at the plate, he'd match Duvall's offense. Don't hold your breath on that happening, though. Instead, the Cubs could move on from Wisdom this winter. He's a candidate to be traded or non-tendered by the end of Friday, when the team has to tender contracts to players for 2024. Wisdom just isn't a great fit for the roster at this point. Duvall would fill the offensive role Wisdom occupies, but he's an above-average defensive outfielder, which makes a world of difference here. He even acquits himself well in center field. He might sign a two-year deal worth $15 million or more, but he'd be a terrific depth piece for the positional corps in that price range. 32. Kenta Maeda, RHP The Cubs need more raw stuff in their rotation, and more swing-and-miss. Alas, those aren't the areas of great strength for Maeda, at this stage of his career. The ex-Dodgers and Twins starter underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021, and is down to a sub-91 miles per hour average velocity on his heater. His slider isn't the filthy pitch it used to be, now that his fastball is down a tick. He still has a nasty splitter, good command, and a whole lot of savvy, though. On the right deal, he could be a very good fourth starter for a team reinforced from the front end of the rotation by one of the premium free agents available. 31. Jordan Hicks, RHP Few hurlers anywhere in the game throw harder than Hicks. His ability to translate pure velocity into whiffs and outs has been less consistent, but in 2023, he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career. Featuring a sinker instead of a four-seamer, he keeps the ball on the ground as well as any reliever in the game, and he reshaped his slider into more of a sweeper this past season. He also started making use of a four-seam fastball, for the first time. There's a lot with which to work, though to earn the right to do that work, the Cubs would probably have to commit to Hicks for three years at an annual salary near $10 million. Are any of these appealing options for you? Weigh in, and come back later this week to see who comes in higher on the list of good fits for the Cubs this offseason. View full article

Monday is the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Cubs have a few open roster spots, but whether to spend all of them (and if so, on which prospects) is always an interesting question. Image courtesy of © MATT CASHORE / USA TODAY NETWORK Unlike last winter, this fall finds the Cubs without any elite prospects in obvious need of protection from MLB's secondary mechanism for ensuring player freedom. They already allowed Yonathan Perlaza to leave the organization as a minor-league free agent, and added Luis Vazquez to the 40-man to prevent the same. They still have three vacancies on the reserve list, if they want to use them, but once a player is added for this purpose, they can't be removed from the roster through the usual mechanisms of waivers and outright assignment for a certain period. For that reason (and because the team might prefer external additions who stand to make a greater impact on the team), the Cubs might elect to leave themselves an open spot or two on the 40-man even on the other side of this deadline. This day also tends to generate player movement throughout the sport, as teams try to clear the requisite space on their rosters for key additions or trade fringy guys they would have left unprotected to teams who will then slot them into their own 40-man. Let's take a look at the guys who give the Cubs some real reason to pause and consider their options today. Pablo Aliendo, C It's a little bit difficult to take seriously anyone who strikes out 30 percent of the time even in Double A, but Aliendo did so at an appropriate age (22) and with some power and patience to offset the whiffs. He's also a credible (though far from exciting) defensive catcher. In general, teams don't love to carry an extra catcher on the 40-man unless they would feel comfortable calling them up for an extended stay with the parent club. The dilemma the Cubs face, then, is whether they can find that kind of trust in Aliendo. He's not in a terribly different spot from the one Miguel Amaya was in a year ago, but he doesn't have quite the same defensive chops, and that might prove to be a separator. Chase Strumpf, IF It feels like the decision to add Vazquez foreclosed the possibility of doing the same with Strumpf (or Jake Slaughter, his less defensively sound facsimile), but we'll see how things unfold. At the end of this week lurks the deadline for non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, and at that point, the Cubs could theoretically move on from one or both of Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom. If they plan to do so, then there might be a place for Strumpf, after all. He's not quite viable at shortstop, but he profiles as an above-average defender at second or third base. His power is legitimate, and he takes his walks. Again, though, we're talking about a minor-league strikeout rate that makes you worry whether Wisdom's big-league rate might not be the floor for Strumpf's. Ezeqeuiel Pagan, OF A left-handed hitter with bat-to-ball skills and a modicum of plate discipline can usually progress at least to the upper levels of the minors as a legitimate potential big-leaguer. At that point, the question becomes whether they can deliver sufficient power or defensive value to get them over the hump. We don't yet have that answer where Pagan is concerned; he's only gotten a small taste of Double-A competition. He's probably an underpowered corner outfielder, and even if he does end up bridging the gaps and becoming MLB-worthy, it feels unlikely that he'd be taken in this year's draft. Under their current circumstances, the Cubs figure to take that chance and see what happens. Kohl Franklin, RHP Last year, the Cubs added Ryan Jensen to the 40-man at this time, surprising some fans and analysts. Their hope was that they had finally helped a formerly struggling first-round pick unlock something, and that he would materialize quickly as a big-league reliever. It didn't happen, and it's very unlikely that the same gambit would work any better with Franklin. The team would be better off taking their chances by leaving him unprotected, especially since they need to be aiming to make big external upgrades on the pitching staff and will need roster room for them, anyway. Michael Arias, RHP This case is much more nuanced. Arias signed as a shortstop out of the Dominican Republic in 2018. After one year in the Dominican Summer League and one onset of a global pandemic, the Blue Jays released him in May 2020, and the Cubs signed him as a conversion project. Given that fraught trajectory, his ugly walk rates in both levels of A ball the last two years don't seem so bad. The stuff is really good, and his small frame might not scare off a team who would be drafting him for a quick move to the bullpen. It's still a tough call, but adding Arias feels like the right move, if the team can identify other places on the roster to create space if and when they need to add a star via trade or free agency. A Handful of Relievers The above are the main names to watch today, but a few relief-only arms could also be in the mix, depending on what the Cubs' internal analysis and evaluations on them look like. They include Eduarniel Nunez, who has a truly filthy fastball-curveball combo but no clue where it's going; Bailey Horn, a lefty with two above-average breaking balls but insufficient fastball command; and the quartet of Cayne Ueckert, Cam Sanders, Ben Leeper, and Max Bain, who all have good fastballs and good sliders but big flaws in either their health or their control. Of those six, one is going to be a good big-league reliever, and one is going to be a modestly useful one. The other four will float around and come to nothing. If the Cubs have conviction on which is the winning ticket in that batch, they might play it, but the good odds are that all six are left unshielded. Again, there are other avenues through which this deadline can yield a little bit of interest and movement, but the Cubs seem unlikely to make any big or surprising moves this year, based on their situation and the status of their most valuable prospects. Who would you protect? What names not rattled off here have your attention? Are there trade partners on whom you'll keep tabs today? Let's get nerdy. View full article

Lefties did torch him last year, when there were multiple things wrong for him, but he found a changeup that worked in 2020 and 2021 and erased that big split issue. It's crept back the last couple of years for unrelated reasons; I bet the Cubs would think they could straighten out at least that element of his problems.

While MLB free agency has been over for a solid week, little player movement has happened yet. There will be moves this week, but as we await the big ones, let's count down the 50 best fits for the Cubs among the many free agents available. Image courtesy of © David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports Firstly, I had better clarify what this list will be. I'm not endeavoring, as several national sites do, to rank every free agent by talent or projected production over the life of a given contract. I'm also not ranking the players the Cubs are most likely to sign. This list (entirely my own; don't blame anyone else for my rankings) lives somewhere between those theoretical pieces. It's a ranking of the guys I think the Cubs would do best to sign this winter. My process, then, includes the ability of the player, but also their likely price tag, the Cubs' needs, and the team's likely payroll constraints (now and in the future), among other factors. It's not definitive; it's a conversation starter, and a way to draw some lines around otherwise vague or confused thoughts about the market. Without further ado, let's count down the bottom 10 guys who made my list. (To make the list at all, of course, I have to think the Cubs would somehow profit by signing a player. There are good free agents who won't appear here because they don't fit the Cubs' needs at all. There are also a few fringy ones who will be unexpectedly high. This is highly specific to the Cubs, and to my perceptions of them.) 50. Andrew McCutchen, DH/LF The way McCutchen's 2023 ended--with an injury in the midst of a lost season--is too undignified to be the final sentence in the beautiful story of his career. It feels unlikely that he'll play anywhere other than Pittsburgh, to whom he returned years after having been traded away, but the Cubs should at least call. Perhaps the long-time lefty masher would have interest in a reunion with Craig Counsell, who managed him in 2022. 49. Donovan Solano, 1B/3B/DH What do you get when you cross Patrick Wisdom with Nick Madrigal? It's basically Solano. He's short, stocky, strong, yet he doesn't hit for real power, because most of his hard contact is on the ground or on a lower trajectory in the air. Yet, he also doesn't strike out much. He's a competent defensive first baseman, and you can use him at second or third in a pinch. Just don't expect him to add actual value with his glove. His nickname is Donnie Barrels. He gets hits. That has plenty of value, in some scenarios, for the 2024 Cubs. It would come at a low cost, probably right around what Wisdom would make in arbitration. Whether it's worth the transaction costs to make an upgrade of sorts depends much on what else the team does. 48. Wandy Peralta, LHP After Brandon Hughes fell apart (mostly for health reasons) in 2023, the Cubs were left without a reliable lefty in the bullpen. Peralta is that kind of lefty. He walks too many batters, and he finished the season on the injured list with a triceps strain, but he has good stuff and has racked up good results with the Yankees over the last three seasons. He shouldn't cost an arm and a leg, and adding an established lefty to the pen would lessen any pressure on Drew Smyly to be the guy he was down the stretch. It might even facilitate the Cubs trading Smyly, either to clear his salary from their books or to give him a chance to start that he wouldn't get here. 47. Matt Moore, LHP The several reasons we enumerated for the Cubs to be interested in Moore at the trade deadline hold just as true as he hits free agency. For that matter, you can apply much of the Peralta talk above to Moore, with little in need of adjustment. He's not an overpowering or thrilling option, but he stands an excellent chance to be a steady lefty set-up man, and he's unlikely to cost more than $6 million. As Matt Ostrowski recently wrote, the Cubs ought to invest a bit more in their bullpen, in support of their new skipper. 46. Joey Votto, 1B/DH Look, it's not especially likely that Votto wants to come to the Cubs, and there are first basemen available whom the Cubs should want more than Votto. That's why he's so far down on this list. To leave him off it entirely, however, I would have to believe that the Cubs have secured the cold corner and/or DH very well for 2024, or that Votto can no longer bang, even when healthy. I do not believe either of those things. He could fill a couple of needs and be a welcome source of leadership for the 2024 Cubs, at a relatively cheap price. 45. Harrison Bader, CF Not far removed from being the Cardinals' center fielder of the future, and even more recently considered a hometown hero with the Yankees, Bader ended 2023 about as unwanted as a guy can get: shuffled off to Cincinnati via waivers, then demoted there, too. His bat lost its potency, and that has always been the question with him. He's a good candidate to bring in as a flier, though, because he can play such sparkling outfield defense and would be a good platoon partner to Mike Tauchman, Ian Happ, or both, if he could iron out the injury and approach problems that have stunted his offensive progress. 44. Dylan Floro, RHP If it weren't for the high baseline we set in our minds for relief pitcher fungibility, we'd all be shocked at the fact that the Cubs ever let Floro go at all. He's as quintessentially Cub as a right-handed middle reliever can be. His arsenal, his recent usage, and his price tag all thread a nice little needle, now, of seeming to jibe with both the Cubs' recent track record for reliever targets and Counsell's preferred style of bullpen management. If anything, I could have steered Floro higher. 43. Hunter Renfroe, RF/DH The big bat that netted the Brewers something in trade for Renfroe at this time last year came up small in Anaheim, and Renfroe, too, made little of his chance to have a late impact on the NL playoff race. Still, he has obvious power, is a fine defender in either corner outfield spot, and has a sufficiently well-rounded offensive skill set that you can dream on him as a platoon guy at DH, too. He's likely to be available on a pretty cheap one-year deal; the Cubs might just need to move some other fringe pieces around to make room for him. 42. Rich Hill, LHP As Hill's career winds toward a close, it would be cool to see him circle back to the team with whom he began his journey. At last check, he was pondering a model whereby he would take extra rest over the offseason, manage his buildup carefully, and join a team close to midseason. That could certainly work for the Cubs, whose pitching plan looks more like a quilt than a seamless creation, anyway. 41. Yuki Matsui, LHP Japan's best reliever is coming to the United States in 2024, and it'll be very interesting to see what kind of contract he can command. He has a four-pitch mix despite being a pretty standard-issue closer, with the fastball bumping the mid-90s, an eviscerating splitter and two distinct breaking balls. Since the start of 2021, his RA9 (runs allowed per nine; think ERA, but even "unearned" runs count) is just over 1.60. His resume is dazzling. The catch? He's lilliputian. Listed at 5-foot-8, he looks (if anything) a bit smaller. For now, though, his stuff and command make up for it, and he could be a lethal weapon in a Counsell-led bullpen. What do you think of these guys as potential Cubs targets? Let's fire up some free agency talk, and come back tomorrow to see the next 10 names on my list. View full article

In the latest episode of This is Not a Rebuild. we dug into the early storylines around what looks to be a momentous offseason ahead for the Cubs. Image courtesy of Matt Trueblood via Spotify for Podcasters We recorded this episode of This is Not a Rebuild on Sunday night, well before the world (including the four of us) knew that Craig Counsell would be the first big arrival of the winter. As such, our conversations centered mostly on the contract options exercised and declined, and on the multiple dimensions of change enacted on the Cubs' hot stove plans when Marcus Stroman opted out of the final year of his deal. Beyond that, we kicked around a few of the top names on the free-agent and trade markets. There's ample Juan Soto talk in here, as well as some further discussion of Cody Bellinger and the complicated question of how hard the Cubs should try to bring him back. So far, these conversations remain somewhat abstract. There's a wide universe of potential individual acquisitions, but it feels most important that we pinpoint what specific things the team needs (and doesn't need). Counsell's arrival will immediately sharpen the lens and give us greater insight into those needs, but there's still room to debate them. Do the Cubs need one big bat, or two? How much can they afford to eschew long-term commitments and focus on making the team better for 2024, alone? Who will be within their price range on the free-agent starting pitching market, and how much will they invest in the bullpen? These are all topics for this and future podcast episodes, but we can also discuss them here, in text form. Let us know what you think, and throw out questions or comments for future episodes. View full article

Stealing the long-time, highly successful manager of a division rival is unavoidably exciting, but the news shockwave the Cubs created Monday had another layer to it, too. This deal was wholly proactive. The team already had a skipper, and they pushed him aside. Here's why they did it. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports I don't think the Cubs viewed David Ross as a problem. Never take an organization's public remarks, especially about something like personnel status, at face value, but when both Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts voiced support for Ross at the end of the regular season, I think they were both being truthful. That's an important note with which to lead off, here, because (as I've made clear several times before) I don't agree, but knowing it is important when evaluating the choice the team just made. If the Brewers and Cubs had swapped managers before 2023, the Chicago Cubs would have won the NL Central this past season. That sounds like a grandiose statement, given the nine-game edge Milwaukee held by the end of the year, but this was an exceptional season. The Brewers, with a sturdy bullpen and plenty of good luck but also with Counsell ensconced in the dugout, won one-run games at a remarkable clip. By contrast, the Cubs struggled mightily in close games. Those are the contests where a manager can make the most visible difference, and in them, the Brewers had a huge advantage over the Cubs. Of course, most of the impact a manager makes is much less visible. There are games that end up being decided by six or seven runs, but which a manager could have steered back toward being close with different moves early. There are also considerations that go far beyond sheer game management, to the maintenance of clubhouse culture and the careful calibration of daily intensity necessary to play consistent baseball as a team. Counsell excels in that regard, too. His teams snap out of slumps more quickly than most, and they sustain hot streaks better than most. Ross's tenure as manager, meanwhile, was marred by long periods during which his teams played sloppy and uninspired baseball. As good as Ross was at being the same guy every day over the latter part of his playing career, he wasn't able to transmit that capacity to his teams from the manager's office. He also failed to adequately manage the grind of the long season. At times, the Cubs would look tired, for days at a time, as though they badly needed not just a day off, but an entire weekend. That's normal. It's only human. Alas, MLB is a game that has to be played by abnormal, almost superhuman athletes who find the energy to bring tenacity and focus to the diamond every day. Self-imposed payroll constraints kept the Brewers from making major outside additions for most of the time Counsell spent at the helm. There were notable exceptions, but the rule was that the team thrived or floundered on the strength of its young players, either homegrown or acquired at a low ebb in value. Counsell proved to be adept at that vital skill: he empowers and develops young players well. He does it without being exceptionally enthusiastic about those youngsters; he takes a terse and value-focused tone. Ultimately, though, he brings them along successfully. The same can't be said for Ross, whose inability to smoothly integrate some of the rookies the front office gave him as tools throughout 2023 contributed to the team's failure to make the playoffs. Managers have to make dozens of complicated, multilayered decisions every week. They need to think in paragraphs and pages, not simple sentences. Ross never demonstrated the ability to keep all those plates spinning at once. Counsell has done so masterfully, often at the Cubs' expense, for almost a decade. Even though the Cubs believed in Ross enough to retain him a month ago, they felt this was a big enough upgrade to pay the transaction cost of firing a manager, as well as the actual monetary cost. For all the above reasons, it was the right decision. I jumped on the Wrigleyville Nation podcast to talk about this huge news, as well as the other early offseason happenings in Cubdom. Check it out: What specific things do you hope Counsell will do better than Ross? What concerns do you have about him? Let's get into the nitty-gritty on the new man in charge. View full article

In a shocking move, the Cubs have swooped in to steal the best manager in baseball from their fiercest division rival. Let's talk Craig Counsell. What moves does this make you hope to see? How many wins better did the Cubs just get, instantly? Can't wait to talk about it more. View full article

The first two decisions the Cubs got to make this winter turned out to be no-brainers. Now, they can turn toward what needs to be a busy offseason, just as free agency officially gets underway. Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports After Marcus Stroman opted out of his deal Saturday, the Cubs had an easy call on Kyle Hendricks's $16-million club option Sunday. It's still possible for the team to sign him to an extension that would lower his annual average salary and make it easier for the team to stay below whichever threshold of the competitive-balance tax they deem important, but that's no longer necessary, thanks to the $23.7 million the team saves thanks to Stroman leaving town. The Cubs also picked up a $6-million option on Yan Gomes Sunday, securing the services of the man who projects to be their starting catcher again in 2024. That decision was even easier than the Hendricks one, and didn't depend on Stroman, but it underscores the fact that the team is already gaining some clarity on the offseason ahead. In Hendricks, they lock up a third veteran starter, along with Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon. Add Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, and Cade Horton to that mix, and there's ample depth in the team's projected rotation. They now have more money to spend, and the fact that what they need is a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm is nearly inarguable. Gomes's return, too, further settles a fairly settled group. He joins Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki as fully locked-in members of the 2024 lineup. That still leaves four spots open, but both outfield corners and both middle-infield positions (plus catcher) are set. It's clear that the team needs two more good hitters, at least. It's clear at what positions those players need to show up: center field, the infield corners, and designated hitter. Gomes also acts as a stabilizing force and a buttress for the pitching staff, which figures to be more in transition this winter than the lineup. During the long, slow decline that followed the 2016 championship run, the Cubs' biggest problem was an inability to gain clarity on what they needed to do. Their core was too versatile, in one way of looking at it. They had too many good options, combined with too strict a mandate to win now. It compromised Joe Maddon and the rest of the coaching staff in their efforts to develop talent at the big-league level, and it made it harder for the front office to build the best possible team from one season to the next. Those were good problems to have, compared to a shortfall of talent, which is why the 2017-20 Cubs were all better (by winning percentage) than the 2023 team. However, this team now has a foundation on which to build, and they know what they need and how to execute the plan in a way they didn't half a decade ago. Bringing back Hendricks and Gomes helps set the stage for an offseason that will reshape this roster for the long term, and it highlights the good position they're in to do that well. It's important, now, that ownership invest heavily and the front office act aggressively over the next few months. View full article

Marcus Stroman opted out of the final year of his contract with the Chicago Cubs Saturday, creating some interesting new opportunities--but a bunch of new uncertainty--about the team's 2024 starting rotation. Because of the volume of whispers we heard indicating the opposite, this is hitting the web as surprising news today, but it was never clear why there was such certainty about it. Stroman will turn 33 next May. He's already received a qualifying offer, so he can't have that restrictor plate attached to him this time around. This is a chance to get a multiyear contract, and it could very well be his last one. Stroman probably won't find $21 million per year for his services on the open market, but he could make more guaranteed money this way than he would by taking the $21 million in 2024 and then hitting the market yet again next winter. In reality, he's never been a true ace, and his age, size, and stuff suggest that he doesn't have many years left as even a mid-rotation starter. His market this winter will reflect that fairly. Next winter, it might have done so cruelly. From the Cubs' perspective, this is bittersweet. Stroman had a frustrating 2022, but that was going to be a lost year, anyway. With a team trying to contend in 2023, he was the stopper throughout the first half. He had some dazzling outings, and seemed to rise to the occasion when the team needed him most. Later in the season, he tried to pitch through an injury (to the detriment of all), then spent a long time on the injured list and became the object of some heavy speculation during that period. On balance, though, he had the kind of campaign that should encourage Stroman watchers going forward. On the other hand, the Cubs need a true front-of-the-rotation starter, and Stroman isn't it. They wanted to retain Kyle Hendricks, but with $23.7 million spoken-for in their competitive balance tax payroll number in Stroman, that would have been tough to do. Now, they have some new openings, and some new flexibility. Justin Steele is still slotted into one of the top two spots in next year's starting rotation. It now seems overwhelmingly likely that Hendricks will (either on his club option, or on some short-term extension that replaces it) also be in the mix. Jameson Taillon figures to be the team's third or fourth starter, just ahead of Hendricks in the rotation hierarchy. With Stroman removed from the equation, there's more money to be spent to fill the front end. That has to mean that the Cubs will be more aggressive in their pursuit of the best available starters this winter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. They still might not sign any of them, but the chances that they'll land one just rose. It also means that signing any of them would still leave the team some room to spend money upgrading their offense. It means that signing a free-agent starter of note is more likely, which makes trading for a controllable starter less so, which slightly increases the chances that they spend significant talent capital to acquire a big bat in trade--yes, perhaps even Juan Soto. Yamamoto would be the huge prize. He's the ace who would transform the Cubs' rotation, and taking over $20 million out of their projected rotation expenditure sheet makes landing him more plausible. That one is still a longshot, because the contract he's in position to command is gargantuan, but this unexpected development moves it into the realm of real possibility. This is a fun way to start the offseason, even if it comes with a frisson of grief over the unrealized promise of Stroman's often-thrilling Cubs tenure. View full article

You and @Transmogrified Tiger definitely hit the key note that I elected not to: it’s gotta be either him or Madrigal, hard to envision having both. Which I’d prefer comes down to who else occupies the bottom of the lineup and the bench. They’re such different pieces.

As they do around this time each year, MLB Trade Rumors recently published a (highly unofficial) list of players who could be non-tendered in November. One player on it could be a great fit for the Cubs' bench. Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports A list of players who might be non-tendered is, inherently, full of guys with obvious and important flaws. After all, to be non-tendered is to have a team proactively elect to cut ties with you, even though they hold the right to keep you for less than the market price. Occasionally, a player becomes available through these means mostly because of the inflexibility of the arbitration system. Cody Bellinger was non-tendered last winter, because the Dodgers would have had to pay him roughly $20 million had they kept him. Those cases are rare, though, and there's no one like Bellinger on this year's version of the MLBTR list. Still, this is one of those times when one team's trash can easily become another's treasure. Many players get non-tendered because their projected arbitration salary doesn't fit with the role they would fill on that club, or with the club's budgetary constraints, rather than because they have nothing at all to contribute. To wit: Jorge Mateo of the Orioles is included. According to MLBTR, Mateo is in line to make just under $3 million in 2024. At that price, he's unlikely to stick around in Baltimore, where middle infielders suffuse the roster and they have plenty of other needs to which to allocate that money. Mateo's performance this past season put him in this position, as he hit just .217/.267/.340. That's his second year in a row with that hideous OBP in the middle of his slash line, which puts a hard ceiling on his value. He needs to be strictly a bench player for a serious contender. Yet, his batted-ball data points toward some regression (the good kind) for Mateo going forward. He's not a good hitter, but nor is he as bad as he looked this year. He chased outside the zone less often and made contact within it more often than ever in 2023, and he's capable of putting a charge into the ball now and then. Certainly, his gap power from the right side would play much better in Wrigley Field than at Camden Yards, where the recent changes to the dimensions in left field just kill hitters without elite power when they hit the ball in that direction. We've buried the lede here, though. Mateo isn't primarily useful for his bat, but for his glove and his legs. The winner of the 2022 Fielding Bible Award at shortstop, he was above-average there again this season, even as the team phased him out as the starter at the position. He has elite speed, which also makes him a passable center fielder. Coming off the bench, he might have his greatest value on the bases. Since the start of 2022, he's stolen 67 bases in 81 tries. Despite having his playing time slashed this year, he stole just three fewer bases than the year before (32, versus 35) and improved his success rate under the new rules. If any team can afford not to worry about middle infield defense, it's the Cubs. Dansby Swanson just became the successor to Mateo as the Fielding Bible Award winner at shortstop, and Nico Hoerner was a competent shortstop the year before that. He could slide over to short in case of an injury to Swanson. That's what they did last year, and backfilling second base with Christopher Morel didn't ding either the offense or the defense in an undue manner. On the other hand, let's look ahead to 2024 and consider how the team is likely to change. For one thing, Morel's name is hot on the hot stove, already. If he's not part of a blockbuster Juan Soto package, he could still be the headliner in a trade for a less dazzling but equally important player, like a controllable starting pitcher. If he does stay on the roster, it's likely to be because the team sees him as a viable third baseman and intends to try him as the regular at that spot. Either way, he's likely to be less available to slide to the keystone in moments of need in 2024. For that matter, Hoerner doesn't have a spotless health track record. There's no guarantee that he and Swanson wouldn't both be hurt at the same time. More importantly, Mateo's defensive utility isn't confined to short. While he's not a polished center fielder, he'd be able to make up for any mistakes with his speed in the small center fields of the NL Central's home parks, including Wrigley. For all the certainty Chicago has on the middle infield, center field is not nearly as confidence-inspiring. Barring injury, we know who will play the most innings in center for the 2024 Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong. What we don't know, and won't be able to ascertain until at least mid-March, is whether Crow-Armstrong is ready for the big leagues; how much he can be counted on even at the bottom of the order; or how long he might need to spend in Iowa to complete his development. As a stopgap for Crow-Armstrong and a platoon partner to both Mike Tauchman and Crow-Armstrong, Mateo could be a highly valuable piece at the edge of the roster. All of this depends on his offense bouncing back a bit, but he doesn't need to be a star. When he started, he'd bat eighth or ninth. He just needs to acquit himself at bat and excel in the field. Again, the speed is the main attraction here. The Cubs were eighth in MLB in steals last year, but as one of the older offenses in the league, they're in instant danger of backsliding in that department in 2024. They can't afford that. The new rules had a massive effect, and the future of offense in MLB is more speed-oriented than we could have predicted even a year or two ago. Having Mateo, even if he's confined to leveraged pinch-running appearances at times and doesn't contribute a high volume of steals, would make the offense more dynamic. As is true whenever a player is in danger of being non-tendered, the acquisition cost would be minimal here. It would have to be, in order for the deal to make sense, since Mateo isn't likely to crack the starting lineup. Still, it could be the kind of move that gives the front office greater flexibility on other, much larger moves, and it could give David Ross more interesting options in managing close games next year. What do you think? Is Mateo a good fit for the Cubs? Is speed part of your thought process as you look ahead to the 2024 team? Let's discuss. View full article

There's no escaping the discussions right now on Cubs Twitter, or even on sports-talk radio in Chicago. A rumor this juicy only gains momentum, until it's either realized or obliterated. But does this one even make sense? We should be clear: Juan Soto is a phenomenal baseball player, and getting excited about the possibility of him becoming available in trades next month is only natural. There's no question that the Cubs' interest in the superstar is legitimate, because anyone who isn't at least interested in Soto doesn't understand baseball. Given the expectation that Jed Hoyer and his staff will be active this winter, any whiff of a fit between the Cubs and Padres on Soto has to be taken seriously, and once you start that kind of thing rolling, it only goes in one direction. No one is going to stop and go, "On second thought, let's just wait and see." That said, taking Soto-to-the-Cubs rumors seriously means engaging with some difficult questions. Here are the big ones. How great would the acquisition cost be? For any trade target, the most important variable is the talent the other team would demand in order to give up that player. Soto is, obviously, one of the dozen best hitters in baseball, and that caliber of player should net a lot of trade value. Just as obviously, though, players this good are only traded when some exigent circumstance exists, and those circumstances tend to tamp down the real trade value of that player. In this case, as in most recent precedents, the mitigating factor is that Soto is entering his final season of pre-free agency team control. He's going to make over $30 million via arbitration next year, which is why the suddenly penurious Padres have any interest in dealing him. That will eat into the trade value they can realize for him, not only because of the actual limit on value applied by the brevity of his remaining control but because of the perception that A.J. Preller has little choice but to take the best offer he can wangle. The recent precedents to which I just alluded are Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor, and while they're illustrative, the thing they most clearly teach us is that this is an unpredictable process. Betts netted the Red Sox almost nothing useful. Alex Verdugo was the headliner of the return. He's since settled in as a sometimes maddening, occasionally exciting, broadly average player. The rest of the young talent they acquired was considered underwhelming at the time, and they've undershot even the projected outcomes since then. Lindor, by contrast, got Cleveland a haul that included both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario--the middle infield with which they won the AL Central in 2022. Rosario is now gone, but Gimenez is a long-term fixture in the Guardians lineup. He just won the Fielding Bible Award at second base. In each of these cases, the superstar on the block commanded an impressive young player in return, and in each case, the team trading that star away also got some solid but non-premium prospect talent to round out the transaction. You can credit Cleveland for better scouting than the Red Sox did in that process, but they also had the advantage of being a team who consistently behaves that way. Their front office has institutional memory and well-polished skills when it comes to trading expensive players as they near free agency. Two years before making the move, they knew they would be making it, and they laid groundwork and did long-term planning around that. The Red Sox were a team in chaos when they hurriedly cast off their franchise player. The Padres are certainly more like the latter than the former, at the moment, so mark a box in favor of them being in weak bargaining position. Don't lose sight of another important fact, though. Both the Dodgers (David Price) and the Mets (Carlos Carrasco) took on a second, semi-onerous contract in the deals that put Betts and Lindor in new places. If the Padres deal Soto without attaching someone like Jake Cronenworth (starting a seven-year, $80-million extension next year, at age 30, coming off his first below-average season with the bat) or Yu Darvish (who just posted a 4.56 ERA in the first season of an extension that will pay him $108 million over six years), they'll want more back than either Betts or Lindor cost. What does that mean for the Cubs? It must start with Christopher Morel, since his name keeps coming up so relentlessly in this process, but it's insane to think it could stop there. Even if Cronenworth or Darvish were included, Morel would be the equivalent to Verdugo in the Betts deal: a good first piece, but hardly the last. In any clean Soto-only trade, Morel is a co-headliner, along with someone like James Triantos, Jackson Ferris, or Ben Brown. There would be a third piece of some substance in such a package, too. That's a livable price, if Soto is the final piece of a championship puzzle. Is that the case here? What would a Cubs lineup that included Soto look like? No, it isn't. The Cubs are not Juan Soto away from becoming a dynasty again, even if they use their one year of team control to impress him so thoroughly that he signs an extension worth half a billion dollars to stay there for the rest of his career. It was pretty clear, by the disappointing end of this past campaign, that the team needs more than one more bat, and a couple of potent arms, too. To illustrate that, let's ponder a Soto-infused 2024 Cubs lineup: Nico Hoerner - 2b Juan Soto - dh Seiya Suzuki - rf Ian Happ - lf Dansby Swanson - ss Matt Mervis - 1b Yan Gomes - c Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Nick Madrigal - 3b That's not a markedly better lineup than the team fielded for much of last season. It includes an upgrade from Cody Bellinger to Soto, but that comes at the cost of the downgrade from Morel to Mervis. To whatever extent this lineup would outscore the 2023 version, it would be mostly because Suzuki sustains his improvement from the final two months of this year. You're saying, "Matt, they wouldn't stop with acquiring Soto. And landing him would only redouble their urgency to re-sign Bellinger." You're probably right. Go ahead and swap Bellinger into Mervis's place, and swap him with Happ in the batting order. Now, that's a handsome lineup. It can hit, too. To do that, though, you plunged a bunch of long-term resources into what figure to be two very short-term improvements. Soto will be a free agent after just one year, and Bellinger suddenly takes up $25 million per annum on the payroll, guaranteed until the 21st century is in its 30s. Meanwhile, as Crow-Armstrong takes the requisite time to adjust to big-league pitching, the team is getting minimal production from the bottom of the order. Still, we do have a productive lineup here. We can even imagine it as a better one, if Cronenworth does come along for the ride with Soto. (Just don't expect the savings in acquisition cost to be as great, if he does, as they were for the Dodgers when they took on Price. Cronenworth's deal is a problem for San Diego, given their roster and their finances. It would be closer to asset than liability for the Cubs, and the magnitude of any change in price would reflect that fact.) It's awfully expensive, though, and the team is probably out of money already, with some major changes still needed on the pitching side. So, let's make the next logical maneuver: trade Ian Happ for young talent, balancing the ledgers somewhat in terms of both talent and money. Maybe Happ gets you a starter who can slot into the middle of the rotation. If not, dealing him creates monetary wiggle room. You could go sign a helpful arm with the savings from not paying him. That leaves us with: Hoerner - 2b Soto - lf Suzuki - rf Bellinger - 1b Swanson - ss Cronenworth - 3b Patrick Wisdom - dh Gomes - c Crow-Armstrong - cf Once you account for the opportunity to platoon Wisdom with Mike Tauchman, rotate Tauchman and Alexander Canario through the outfield spots to keep people fresh, and slide Bellinger or Hoerner up the defensive spectrum in case of injury, this is an exciting and dynamic lineup. Kevin Alcantara and Matt Shaw are probably still in the organization. Maybe Owen Caissie is, too. By the stretch run, this could be an elite offense, with star defenders up the middle (including, perhaps, Miguel Amaya, unseating Gomes as the regular backstop). We still have the problem of being very expensive, and spending so lavishly on Bellinger probably precludes you from dreaming much on retaining Soto at the astronomical number we all know he'll find next winter. This is a championship-caliber club, though, if things break right--especially since we can assume the pitching staff got a bit better in the process. Is all of this feasible? My final analysis, then, is that a Soto pursuit makes ample sense for this team. It's just that, at least at this early stage, the excitement has far outrun rational expectations. I just laid out a path to making a Soto deal truly helpful that includes not only winning the lively sweepstakes for him, but re-signing a player to a deal worth more than $150 million, and trading a fan favorite who just signed a contract extension six months ago. To call it a long shot would be a nigh criminal understatement. If you're especially bullish on Happ, Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong, and Gomes, and if you believe the Ricketts' budget for 2024 is going to approach $275 million, then you don't need to dream on this complicated, gilded trifecta of moves--although, potentially, we're also talking about a fourth move, offscreen for now, in which the team lands a top-flight pitcher. If you think Bellinger can repeat what he just did in 2023, then re-signing him is so desirable as to feel almost necessary, and doesn't feel like a complication in a scheme to land Soto--but rather, like a bonus. All of that is fair and valid. Still, the needle the Cubs would be attempting to thread by pegging their winter strategy to a Soto trade has an eye smaller than Madrigal's pinky toenail. It would require an improbably risky trade by a risk-averse front office; a big investment by an ownership group that has been unpredictable and often stingy; and better player development and roster management at the big-league level than they've gotten at any time since 2016. Soto is a historic talent, and it's an absolute requirement that the Cubs explore landing him if that's even a remote possibility. For the moment, though, 'remote' should get more emphasis than 'possibility' when you ponder these rumors. View full article