Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Nolo said:

A few comments ago I was suggesting Holmes, Taira, Peterson, and May for $60M AAV and $190M total contract value for the four. 

I think I would rather get a better front end guy and go with a cheaper guy in May’s spot. I think May is going to cost more than you do. So instead, sign Sandoval or Civale as the 4th pitcher and use the money saved to sign someone like Gray or Rogers instead of Peterson. 🤷

[Nolo]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I wouldn't grab all four of those and I think you're hitting a point of a bit of redundancy. Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Javier Assad can all fill in the rotation on Day 1 in some fashion.

Yeah that's something I thought about. I don't think May specifically is worth pushing any of those guys (except Garrett whom I am not a fan of) out of a rotation spot. May and Cabrera is a coin flip imo and we already have Cabrera. I guess just give me Holmes, Taira, and Peterson.

Figure something like 1. Holmes 2. Taira 3. Steele 4. Peterson 5. Cabrera/Assad

Or go with something like Rcal10 said about getting a more "higher end" ace type guy and go with a cheaper backend/role guy.

i.e. 

Rogers/Holmes/Taira/Steele/5th spot (Assad, Cabrera, Garrett, whoever they sign - battle it out in spring training if there is one)

Edited 12 hours ago by Nolo

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Yeah that's something I thought about. I don't think May specifically is worth pushing any of those guys (except Garrett whom I am not a fan of) out of a rotation spot. May and Cabrera is a coin flip imo and we already have Cabrera. I guess just give me Holmes, Taira, and Peterson.

Figure something like 1. Holmes 2. Taira 3. Steele 4. Peterson 5. Cabrera/Assad

Or go with something like Rcal10 said about getting a more "higher end" ace type guy and go with a cheaper backend/role guy.

Yeah I think that group of players is kind of fluid. I'm not hitching my wagon on anyone specific, but the Cubs probably have enough guns to fill two rotation spots internally. Add a swingman type into the Braxton Garrett/Javier Assad mix (save a few bucks from Rea's contract or get a younger version) and I'm good. 

Greg Zumach mentioned Logan Gilbert could be a possibility via trade and a possible extension candidate. I normally think "getting an extension via trade" is a pipedream, but he did mention his agent is the same agent who did this with Glasnow and Olson recently. So it's do-able if still unlikely. 

[Bertz]

Yeah I think there's essentially four buckets in FA, and the idea should be to to pick 1 from each: 

- The good old guys (Gausman, Holmes, Gray)

- The guys with a question mark or two but obvious upside (Taira, Mahle, Pivetta, etc.)

- The boring but still pretty good LHPs (Peterson, Griffin, Boyd, Shota)

- The buy low types or explicit swingmen (Bubic, Sandoval, Flaherty, Civale, May could fit here)

Trevor Rogers doesn't fit into any of these buckets but I'd love to keep close on him still.  

[Nolo]

Hawkins presser from yesterday, didn't see this posted:

My notes:

• Not surprised by Suzuki's decision, will continue to pursue him.
• Happy with guys like Rolison, Miller, Zeferjahn, and Palencia, but the expectation for these guys is to "get a tick better" in every way.
• Mentioned bringing in guys to help the bullpen get better would be another focus this offseason.
• Ayers needs to earn the trust at the major league level before getting the opportunities. Bringing a veteran catcher will mitigate risk, but you also have to take risks to succeed. Aka they don't really know what they're doing for catcher.
• Expects Horton to pitch towards the end of the season
• Expects the next few weeks to move faster in terms of transactions

Edited 12 hours ago by Nolo

[mk49]

2 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Ryan has been and continues to be an ace. 111 ERA+ over 6 seasons and 4.9 K/BB ratio.  Salary will be about $13 million in 2027.

He's an ace only in the 1st half of every season.  His career 2nd half stats look more like 5,00 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 2.00 HR/9. He's been like that basically every season.  Besides, he's a flyball pitcher.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he gives up more HR than Shota at Wrigley.  Don't waste prospects for a rental pitcher who is good only in the 1st half.  

[Nolo]

I’d really like Kaima Taira signed but what low key worries me (besides being a Boras client) is White Sox and Padres are also interested. He will see the Cubs and see Suzuki and Imanaga out the door whereas Sox have Murakami and Padres have Matsui, which might make those teams more attractive due to the major cultural shift these Japanese players experience when coming over. Teammates that have been through it before. Those clubs can even use those players as recruiters to a certain extent. Perhaps I’m overthinking it and it will just come down to the $$$

Edited 11 hours ago by Nolo

[CubinNY]

I'm confident that Jed and Co will cobble together a team capable of winning 90 games, but I know if won't be fun. Besides the looming lockout, it's so disheartening to see the same gameplan year after year hoping for the 90th percentile outcome. And paying a premium to do do so.

Hopefully I will be surprised. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Man, it's really hard to be positive about Jed

[macarthur31]

In terms of Cubs going back after Seiya, perhaps it's $90M/3Y, with $30M team option in 4th year, but a buyout like $10M.

That's a significant raise, but it keeps the Cubs from paying for his age 36 season (as I intuit Jed/Carter models aren't big on hitters beyond 35 YO).   Seiya owes it to himself to see what else is out there, and this may not be the best bid (Didn't Keith Law project $150M/5Y?), but perhaps if Seiya is really fond of the team and continuity and since it will likely end as $100M over 3Y with the buyout, it's definitely higher than the $25M AAV that's currently projected.

Of course, the conditions for this to happens assumes that we converted Alcantara/Ramirez/Shaw into cost-controllable starters (cough, cough, Seattle) and somehow got discounts in FA.  So, yes, highly unlikely, but man, I'd hate to see Seiya and his slugging go. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

I’d really like Kaima Taira signed but what low key worries me (besides being a Boras client) is White Sox and Padres are also interested. He will see the Cubs and see Suzuki and Imanaga out the door whereas Sox have Murakami and Padres have Matsui, which might make those teams more attractive due to the major cultural shift these Japanese players experience when coming over. Teammates that have been through it before. Those clubs can even use those players as recruiters to a certain extent. Perhaps I’m overthinking it and it will just come down to the $$$

On the flip side, if no one else was interested, that'd be a bad sign. Good players will be wanted by good teams. 

If you want a reason to be positive: Taira is well aware of what he is and how to maximize himself. The Seibu Lions had the best infield in Japan and he turned himself into a ground ball pitcher to maximize that. He's going to look at his organization he's signing with and he's going to maximize himself. 

I wouldn't worry about recruiting him. The Cubs and Boras work well together. The Cubs head of scouting is a Japanese international. It was Yu Darvish, a member of the Padres who sold Suzuki on the Cubs. I don't doubt Suzuki and Shota would speak highly too. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

33 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Man, it's really hard to be positive about Jed

Jed isn't the issue here, it's Ricketts forcing them to stay under the CBT

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

I’d really like Kaima Taira signed but what low key worries me (besides being a Boras client) is White Sox and Padres are also interested. He will see the Cubs and see Suzuki and Imanaga out the door whereas Sox have Murakami and Padres have Matsui, which might make those teams more attractive due to the major cultural shift these Japanese players experience when coming over. Teammates that have been through it before. Those clubs can even use those players as recruiters to a certain extent. Perhaps I’m overthinking it and it will just come down to the $$$

One of the things that has been mentioned the last few years is how well the Cubs handle Japanese players off the field.  A bunch of little things like post-game meals, family accommodations, etc.  It sounds like they basically asked Yu Darvish "how can we do better at this stuff" and then put it all into action.  That's part of why Yu has evangelized for Chicago even after leaving.

All else being equal you'd probably like to have another Japanese player around. so don't be surprised if the team double or triple dips in that market, but broadly aside from the Dodgers (who, to be clear, have some institutional geographic advantages) I don't expect the Cubs to lose a recruitment on soft factors.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

One of the things that has been mentioned the last few years is how well the Cubs handle Japanese players off the field.  A bunch of little things like post-game meals, family accommodations, etc.  It sounds like they basically asked Yu Darvish "how can we do better at this stuff" and then put it all into action.  That's part of why Yu has evangelized for Chicago even after leaving.

All else being equal you'd probably like to have another Japanese player around. so don't be surprised if the team double or triple dips in that market, but broadly aside from the Dodgers (who, to be clear, have some institutional geographic advantages) I don't expect the Cubs to lose a recruitment on soft factors.

I agree with this. Even if/when Seiya and Shota leave, they will do so with nice things to say about the Cubs and the city. As was mentioned earlier, Darvish spoke highly of them as well. I don’t think not having a Japanese player will hurt the Cubs as much as having a great infield defense will help them in Taira’s case. Cubs are always looking in that market. Even if Taira is the only one this year, that doesn’t mean he won’t have someone else soon after. And I am not even sure how much that matters anyway. 

[CubinNY]

50 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Man, it's really hard to be positive about Jed

It’s not Jed per se

[chibears55]

I can see starters like Taira, May, Gray, Patterson and Holmes being what Hoyer would go after for the rotation,  as they all may be acquired for an AAV of 20 mil or less. 

I still feel at most he will only add 2 new starters for the OD rotation, to go with Steele and Cabrera.

Garrett, Wicks, Aguiar, Assad and possibly other cheap depth options brought in to compete for the 5th spot.

Wiggins and Brown will be working their way back to possibly take the 5th spot at some point 

Edited 8 hours ago by chibears55

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I can see starters like Taira, May, Gray, Patterson and Holmes being what Hoyer would go after for the rotation,  as they all may be acquired for an AAV of 20 mil or less. 

I still feel at most he will only add 2 new starters for the OD rotation, to go with Steele and Cabrera.

Garrett, Wicks, Aguilar, Assad and possibly other cheap depth options brought in to compete for the 5th spot.

Wiggins and Brown will be working their way back to possibly take the 5th spot at some point 

Wicks isn’t an option, IMO. And who is Aguilar? Also, Gray will probably cost more than $20M annual. 

[Nolo]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Wicks isn’t an option, IMO. And who is Aguilar? Also, Gray will probably cost more than $20M annual. 

Julian Aguiar — basically a 40 man roster filler guy that Cubs claimed off waivers last season. Lottery ticket type guy. Starter profile. I don’t know too much else about him other than he was a top 15 prospect with the Reds.

Edited 9 hours ago by Nolo

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Rogers, Taira, and Hancock would let you have enough money to bring Seiya back. Then some money left over for the bench, maybe bring back Conforto and Taylor.

[Nolo]

More on Aguiar. Meant to attach this to my last comment. 

Edited 9 hours ago by Nolo

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Julian Aguiar — basically a 40 man roster filler guy that Cubs claimed off waivers last season. Lottery ticket type guy. Starter profile. I don’t know too much else about him other than he was a top 15 prospect with the Reds.

So doubtful he is an actual option. Much more likely he is not on the 40 man to start the season than him being in the rotation. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Rogers, Taira, and Hancock would let you have enough money to bring Seiya back. Then some money left over for the bench, maybe bring back Conforto and Taylor.

I doubt this would happen, but you just posted my favorite scenerio. 

[Nolo]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So doubtful he is an actual option. Much more likely he is not on the 40 man to start the season than him being in the rotation. 

He might make the 40 man depending on how he looks in spring. He has two options left I believe.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Jed isn't the issue here, it's Ricketts forcing them to stay under the CBT

Yes and no

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

It’s not Jed per se

Is Ricketts and Jed. But tbf, Jed does a decent job. He isn’t the top POBO, but he is far from the worst.