Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[gflore34]

12 minutes ago, Nolo said:

what about trading Dansby for prospects to free up some cash to sign elite arms for bullpen and rotation?

Yeah he’s a good SS, but he’s worthless with the bat. Saw a crazy stat that 50% or so of his offensive production came in just 8 games this year. Move Nico over to SS and Ramirez to second. That’s a lot of cash freed up right there for OF, bullpen, and rotation, plus what is already coming off the books. 

Nico's arm does not play at SS.

Edited 6 hours ago by gflore34

[Nolo]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

50% of his offensive production did not come in eight games this year. 

I exaggerated a bit for dramatic effect and quite frankly laziness, but here's the stat as provided by Cubs Baseball Channel on YT (Mick);

His season overall: 0.213 / 19 HR / 69 RBI --- sounds decent enough on paper, right?

In his best 8 games of the season, he hit 0.625 BA / 12 HR / 31 RBI

That 63% of his home runs and 45% of his RBIs in 8 games.

In the other 118 games he played, he hit 0.179 with 7 HR and 38 RBIs. Basically he was near an automatic out in the games where he wasn't hot.

I love Dansby but we are paying this man $177M

Edited 5 hours ago by Nolo

[Geographyhater8888]

30 minutes ago, Nolo said:

what about trading Dansby for prospects to free up some cash to sign elite arms for bullpen and rotation?

Yeah he’s a good SS, but he’s worthless with the bat. Saw a crazy stat that 50% or so of his offensive production came in just 8 games this year. Move Nico over to SS and Ramirez to second. That’s a lot of cash freed up right there for OF, bullpen, and rotation, plus what is already coming off the books. 

He’ll be 33 next year with 3 more years under contract. You’d have to eat a lot of his salary to get anything in return. You’d probably have to trade for another contract, and it’s not that easy to pull off, and Nico doesn’t have a short stop arm.

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I exaggerated a bit for dramatic effect and quite frankly laziness, but here's the stat as provided by Cubs Baseball Channel on YT (Mick);

His season overall: 0.213 / 19 HR / 69 RBI --- sounds decent enough on paper, right?

In his best 8 games of the season, he hit 0.625 BA / 12 HR / 31 RBI

That 63% of his home runs and 45% of his RBIs in 8 games.

In the other 118 games he played, he hit 0.179 with 7 HR and 38 RBIs.

I love Dansby but we are paying this man $177M

I realize that makes him seem less useful, but for most players, if we take 10-15 game samples out, we can do these kinds of things. I'll just pick someone like Brayan Rocchio of the Cleveland Guardians. He had a pretty solid year: around a league average hitter, solid fielder, ~3.5 wins. 

In his best 8 games:  
1-3, HR, RBI
2-5, HR, 2 RBI
2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
2-4, HR, 2 RBI
2-4, 2b, 2 RBI
2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
4-4, 2B, 2 R

In those eight random games, he hit 8 of his 18 home runs and hit .562. This is what happens when we split samples up from "the best a guy does" and "the worst a guy does". 

Dansby Swanson is much more than eight game samples. He's a pretty elite defender. And realistically, his trade value probably isn't particularly good. There's almost no scenario in which the Cubs are coming out a winner where they move Swanson, I feel. His trade value is likely less to the Cubs than his actual on field value.

[Nolo]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I realize that makes him seem less useful, but for most players, if we take 10-15 game samples out, we can do these kinds of things.

Yeah I mean I am not crazy about cherry picking stats to fit a narrative, I just thought it was interesting. I understand guys get hot streaks and I do not discount his glove. I was curious about where those Dansby 8 game stats stacked up against other guys on the Cubs, so I had Claude cherry pick the best 8 games. Not sure if this makes Dansby's stats look worse or not, but here's the data:

 

 

[macarthur31]

10 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Yeah I mean I am not crazy about cherry picking stats to fit a narrative, I just thought it was interesting. I understand guys get hot streaks and I do not discount his glove. I was curious about where those Dansby 8 game stats stacked up against other guys on the Cubs, so I had Claude cherry pick the best 8 games. Not sure if this makes Dansby's stats look worse or not, but here's the data:

 

 

I have a hard time figuring out how trading "Dansby for prospects" makes the '27 team better.  Even if you were going to get any prospects for him, they'd be of the long-term lottery kind, so I guess you're raising the ceiling of the '31 team?

He's still top tier with regards to defense and he's a clubhouse leader - that also seems like a horrific message to send to the rest of the team.  

Looking at his fangraphs, it's evident that he took a step back with the bat this season.  However, he improved his BB% to 10.5%, which is just about his career best ('17, 10.7%) and his K% is down to 23.7%, his best ever as a Cub - and the .185 was also his best as a Cub.  Why was the BABIP down to a career worst .242, and the Barrel% down to 7.2% (from career avg 9.0%).  Perhaps he's in a transition phase with his approach as he's starting to age?  Given his high work ethic, I'm hopeful he can trend upwards in '27.

[Bertz]

Among other things I don't want to necessarily cede that "streaky = bad"?

Dansby was 10th in shortstop WAR this year and if not for the IL trip played at a 4.2 win pace.  While the bat is not great it's fairly average for the position.  He's old enough that you do expect decline, but not old enough where you expect him to fall off a cliff.

He is getting a little more platoon-y as he gets older, and I'd guess losing time to injury is going to be a more regular occurrence.  So I am personally quite happy to have Swanson on hand and Pedro Ramirez as a complement in reserve.  I don't view it as an either/or at all.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Nico's arm does not play at SS.

???

Dansby's arm strength is terrible but he makes it work.

[Nolo]

55 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

I have a hard time figuring out how trading "Dansby for prospects" makes the '27 team better.  Even if you were going to get any prospects for him, they'd be of the long-term lottery kind, so I guess you're raising the ceiling of the '31 team?

The idea was to free up salary to have breathing room to acquire a high end bullpen guy like Morejon or a solid 1-2 starter but the more I talk it out the less I like the idea of it. We should have the money to acquire these guys nonetheless if Hoyer is actually a serious person.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Nolo said:

I exaggerated a bit for dramatic effect and quite frankly laziness, but here's the stat as provided by Cubs Baseball Channel on YT (Mick);

His season overall: 0.213 / 19 HR / 69 RBI --- sounds decent enough on paper, right?

In his best 8 games of the season, he hit 0.625 BA / 12 HR / 31 RBI

That 63% of his home runs and 45% of his RBIs in 8 games.

In the other 118 games he played, he hit 0.179 with 7 HR and 38 RBIs. Basically he was near an automatic out in the games where he wasn't hot.

I love Dansby but we are paying this man $177M

The big problem with Dansby is that Hoyer massively overpaid him.  That is on Hoyer, not Swanson.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

The big problem with Dansby is that Hoyer massively overpaid him.  That is on Hoyer, not Swanson.

There is no “big problem” with Swanson. Year after year he has lived up to and beyond his contract value. The issue with him is the fanbase who has no idea what they are talking about. And only sees offense as having any value. His contract is better/lower than all the SS that signed that year. And he has outplayed them all. 
WAR since the big 4 SS were FA: 4 year totals

Turner 11.6…..11/$300M.            
Correa 8.3…..6/$200M (after failing a physical).                     
Bogaerts 9.7…..11/$280M                 
Swanson 16.9……7/$177M

Swanson has outplayed them all by a wide margin and the Cubs are on the hook for a shorter time(except for Correa, who will always be hurt during his contract)   

Edited 2 hours ago by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

The big problem with Dansby is that Hoyer massively overpaid him.  That is on Hoyer, not Swanson.

Can you explain how you have come to this conclusion? I'd be curious as to why you think that.

[mul21]

52 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

The big problem with Dansby is that Hoyer massively overpaid him.  That is on Hoyer, not Swanson.

This is on the board for worst post of the year.  He could be worth literally zero for the rest of his deal and the Cubs would have lost less than $10 million in value vs dollars paid.

[Outshined_One]

I missed something, is Dansby Swanson somehow holding this team back from being a contender, or are people just going crazy because of the way the season ended?

[mul21]

9 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I missed something, is Dansby Swanson somehow holding this team back from being a contender, or are people just going crazy because of the way the season ended?

They're losing their minds because they don't understand how WAR or free agent contract values work.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I missed something, is Dansby Swanson somehow holding this team back from being a contender, or are people just going crazy because of the way the season ended?

There just preparing for next season without Happ. It will now be Swanson who gets all the negative posts. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Dansby is so far down the list of issues with the team (if he even is one) it's not even worth discussing.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Dansby is so far down the list of issues with the team (if he even is one) it's not even worth discussing.

He isn’t an issue. But he will be the guy most criticized this year. Which is kind of surprising since people saw how they played without him. Not well. If people would watch other teams they might be more appreciative of how much defense helps this team and less cranky about Swanson, Hoerner and Happ.