Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I don't recall Hoyer mentioning anything about increasing strikeouts in his presser. 

One thing he did say was they need to reduce the # of HR given up, and that balls not in play (like HR) don't take advantage of their excellent defense.

Hoyer essentially said that since the season just ended they're still in the process of re-evaluating everything organization-wide about pitching, which i assume also includes their approach to who they target in acquisitions.

He commented on relying on defense too much and how maybe he needed to change that a bit. I would take that to mean more strikeout pitchers. It also could mean signing bat first guys, but he seemed to be talking about pitching issues when he said it. So I assumed he was talking about the type of pitcher he wanted. 

[Bertz]

It is generally not a great idea to spend a bunch of time/effort/resources trying to re-fight last year's battles

[Rcal10]

Does anyone think it is possible for the Cubs not to address the corner OF spots and just go with Alcantara, Ramirez and Shaw with maybe also a platoon bat added. Then close the books on spending for bats? I think that would be a terrible idea, but it sounds like Jed expects a lot from Shaw and Ramirez next year. I guess that would open up payroll for pitchers. Probably get 2 higher priced guys and still maybe someone else like Peterson. Maybe the plan is to win on pitching a bit more🤷

If that is the plan I wouldn’t give a QO to Happ or Boyd. Because one or both could take it. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'm not sure anyone including Jed has any idea how the Brewers get overachievement on virtually every single player and signing.  Like how is their success rate on everything 99%?   It's impossible to match something that defies the laws of probabilities.

 

They stole the Cardinals magical pixie dust

[mk49]

18 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Does anyone think it is possible for the Cubs not to address the corner OF spots and just go with Alcantara, Ramirez and Shaw with maybe also a platoon bat added. Then close the books on spending for bats? I think that would be a terrible idea, but it sounds like Jed expects a lot from Shaw and Ramirez next year. I guess that would open up payroll for pitchers. Probably get 2 higher priced guys and still maybe someone else like Peterson. Maybe the plan is to win on pitching a bit more🤷

If that is the plan I wouldn’t give a QO to Happ or Boyd. Because one or both could take it. 

I do, and I agree that's not a good idea.  But, to get a few good SP's, that might be something they need to do.  I wouldn't make QO's to Happ and Boyd.  They could work something with those two, if they want to keep them, though  I like to keep Peterson, because he's very decent and cheaper than a guy like Holmes.  If we can keep Holmes with a team friendly contract, that'd be nice, but I wouldn't overpay him for sure.  

Either way, it'll be interesting to see how they can build a good rotation, which seems to be very hard to do, unless they get lucky (like Brown, Steele and Cabrera stay healthy and pitch well).  

Edited October 3 by mk49

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Does anyone think it is possible for the Cubs not to address the corner OF spots and just go with Alcantara, Ramirez and Shaw with maybe also a platoon bat added. Then close the books on spending for bats? I think that would be a terrible idea, but it sounds like Jed expects a lot from Shaw and Ramirez next year. I guess that would open up payroll for pitchers. Probably get 2 higher priced guys and still maybe someone else like Peterson. Maybe the plan is to win on pitching a bit more🤷

If that is the plan I wouldn’t give a QO to Happ or Boyd. Because one or both could take it. 

Alcantara and Shaw ought to be in a package (with a pitching prospect?) to get one of the Mariner's SP.  Hoyer should have traded Shaw after last season when his trade value was at its highest point.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Alcantara and Shaw ought to be in a package (with a pitching prospect?) to get one of the Mariner's SP.  Hoyer should have traded Shaw after last season when his trade value was at its highest point.

To your credit, you have said this since last off season. And it does appear his value would have been higher then. But it wasn’t an awful idea to have a stronger bench. I actually agreed with you then that Shaw should have been traded and they sign a bench bat. Urias was a guy I had mentioned in the past. Yes, we would have been better off. I had advocated Shaw for Soriano of LAA. Add whatever else would have been necessary. Again, that would have been a good idea. But what they do now is what matters. That ship sailed. 

[Stratos]

One thing we do know is that Hoyer often likes to buy low on pitchers.  Not every pitcher, but especially relievers.  I could see them acquiring another dark horse SP like Garrett along with FA signings and make a trade along the Cabrera line.  Going to be really hard to fill all their rotation needs in FA.

Harder to buy low on position guys since you can't really change position player tools, unlike pitch grips etc.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

God help us if we go another offseason without getting a legit TOR guy. This buying low crap cannot be our first option anymore 

[Dmac]

I see several people putting Brown in the rotation if he is healthy.  I would make him the closer.  I think the less he pitches the better because of his neck issues.  As great as he was this year, I think it might be wise to limit his usage to get the most out of him.  If he is healthy next year, I'm not putting him in the rotation. 

[CubinNY]

33 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

God help us if we go another offseason without getting a legit TOR guy. This buying low crap cannot be our first option anymore 

I think they are going after Skulbal for real. That doesn’t mean they will get him, 

But other than that, we should expect more of the same process from them. It will be underwhelming but give them a chance at 90 wins. 
 

Someone said Jed pays for floor and that’s exactly correct. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, mk49 said:

I do, and I agree that's not a good idea.  But, to get a few good SP's, that might be something they need to do.  I wouldn't make QO's to Happ and Boyd. 

Interested to see if they offer a QO to Boyd.  If they do I feel bad for him, it will screw him in FA if he declines.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Interested to see if they offer a QO to Boyd.  If they do I feel bad for him, it will screw him in FA if he declines.

Boyd is nothing more than a 4/5. I really hope they don't use a QO on him because I'm afraid he'll take it

Edited October 4 by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Stratos]

22 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Boyd is nothing more than a 4/5. I really hope they don't use a QO on him because I'm afraid he'll take it

Well he had an average FIP for an SP this season, but he'll tend to outperform his FIP because he's elite at holding runners.  So IMO he might be more of a #3, but age isn't on his side, so could regress to a #4 next season.

Question is if he's better or worse, or about the same, as Shota was going into last offseason?  

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Does anyone think it is possible for the Cubs not to address the corner OF spots and just go with Alcantara, Ramirez and Shaw with maybe also a platoon bat added. Then close the books on spending for bats? I think that would be a terrible idea, but it sounds like Jed expects a lot from Shaw and Ramirez next year. I guess that would open up payroll for pitchers. Probably get 2 higher priced guys and still maybe someone else like Peterson. Maybe the plan is to win on pitching a bit more🤷

If that is the plan I wouldn’t give a QO to Happ or Boyd. Because one or both could take it. 

Don't forget they need someone to DH too.

Hoyer said he was going to sit down with Happ i believe later this month.  I could see them working something out before he has to officially file for free agency.

Would Happ do something like 2/34, maybe a team option for a 3rd year?

If they brought back Happ, Taylor, and Conforto I'd be fine with that.   It's possible Alcantara could take Taylor's role as platoon OF vs LHP and CF backup.  I can't see Alcantara's bat playing well vs RHP with that K% in Iowa.

Edit:  Joc Pederson got 2/37 two years ago at age 32.

Edited October 4 by Stratos

[chibears55]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Does anyone think it is possible for the Cubs not to address the corner OF spots and just go with Alcantara, Ramirez and Shaw with maybe also a platoon bat added. Then close the books on spending for bats? I think that would be a terrible idea, but it sounds like Jed expects a lot from Shaw and Ramirez next year. I guess that would open up payroll for pitchers. Probably get 2 higher priced guys and still maybe someone else like Peterson. Maybe the plan is to win on pitching a bit more🤷

If that is the plan I wouldn’t give a QO to Happ or Boyd. Because one or both could take it. 

I think if Hoyer has high expectations of Conrad, Kepley, and or Hartshorn to take an OF spot in 2028, he'll be looking at OFers who are willing to take no more than a 2 year deal to bridge them.

I also think that one of Ramirez,  Shaw, and maybe Alcantara too, could be used in a trade to get a pitcher, with the others staying to be more of a utility player. I dont think any of the 3 will be considered for an everyday spot in OF.

I think we might see a couple trades to get pitching and possibly a hitter,  they have 4 position spots they can add someone new if they choose, DH, C, LF, and RF.

The pitching is wide open for changes, Steele, and Brown will be question marks as far as health and if theyll be affective or not. Then they basically just have Garrett, Cabrera, and Assad.

Bullpen has a bunch of guys they can go with but they obviously can use some upgrades there. 

I hope they prioritize pitching via trades and FA, they have 6 committed contracts for 103 mil, and 4 players in ARB (30 mil estimate).

 

 

[Backtobanks]

10 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I think they are going after Skulbal for real. That doesn’t mean they will get him, 

But other than that, we should expect more of the same process from them. It will be underwhelming but give them a chance at 90 wins. 
 

Someone said Jed pays for floor and that’s exactly correct. 

The Cubs are looking to replace almost their whole rotation and probably their 2 corner OFs and you think they'll have a shot at 90 wins?  They didn't get 90 wins this year.

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Does anyone think it is possible for the Cubs not to address the corner OF spots and just go with Alcantara, Ramirez and Shaw with maybe also a platoon bat added. Then close the books on spending for bats? I think that would be a terrible idea, but it sounds like Jed expects a lot from Shaw and Ramirez next year. I guess that would open up payroll for pitchers. Probably get 2 higher priced guys and still maybe someone else like Peterson. Maybe the plan is to win on pitching a bit more🤷

If that is the plan I wouldn’t give a QO to Happ or Boyd. Because one or both could take it. 

It’s a terrible idea if your goal is to win games. You can’t go into next season without at least one established corner outfield free agent who’s a capable full time starter. The other spots, I wouldn’t mind giving Shaw some more opportunities since they’ll be selling low on him, and his development was stalled riding the bench. I don’t think Arozerena is in play if they’re unwilling to sign Suzuki so he prepared for a downgrade.
 

I don’t have high hopes for Alcantara either, they wouldn’t have traded for Taylor if he was a capable platoon option. 

Edited Sunday at 12:08 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, mk49 said:

I do, and I agree that's not a good idea.  But, to get a few good SP's, that might be something they need to do.  I wouldn't make QO's to Happ and Boyd.  They could work something with those two, if they want to keep them, though  I like to keep Peterson, because he's very decent and cheaper than a guy like Holmes.  If we can keep Holmes with a team friendly contract, that'd be nice, but I wouldn't overpay him for sure.  

Either way, it'll be interesting to see how they can build a good rotation, which seems to be very hard to do, unless they get lucky (like Brown, Steele and Cabrera stay healthy and pitch well).  

Once again though, it’s more lateral moves. Offense gets weaker and pitching gets stronger for another 85-88 wins. They’re not top spenders and have a bottom ranked farm system so they’re in a similar spot as the post 2015 cardinals. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Jaime Moyer makes sense as a new pitching coach. 

[mk49]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Once again though, it’s more lateral moves. Offense gets weaker and pitching gets stronger for another 85-88 wins. They’re not top spenders and have a bottom ranked farm system so they’re in a similar spot as the post 2015 cardinals. 

The problem is that we can't assume the pitching will get better.  If they win 85-88 next year, I think I'd feel happy, but it depends on what they do in the offseason.  It'll be interesting.  

[CubinNY]

4 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

The Cubs are looking to replace almost their whole rotation and probably their 2 corner OFs and you think they'll have a shot at 90 wins?  They didn't get 90 wins this year.

Try reading that again. 

[Rcal10]

I just read the O’s are looking to improve their defense at 3rd. Would something like Shaw for Baz make sense? That is one way to get a starting pitcher. He is controlled for several years too. 

[Nolo]

My take on some guys:

Michael Busch: he’s still relatively young. I think he just had a down year. He’s our first basemen.

Conforto; I don’t think he will be super expensive. He’s getting older and the market will know him as a failed dodger and a cubs platoon guy. if we add legit arms for the rotation and pen we could be looking at PCA, Conforto, and Shaw/Ramirez OF. Conforto has also DH. See below.

Clay Holmes: we should re-sign him to have that veteran leadership and depth. He still has some good seasons left in him. 

Gausman: bet he retires, or signs a 1 year deal with Toronto. He gone either way.

Ben Brown: may have to put him in the bullpen because of his neck flare ups but we really need him in the rotation. I just don’t trust that neck over the course of a season. 

Edward Cabrera: he’s not going anywhere, he needs to figure his blister thing out but he’s going to be in the rotation to start the season.

Justin Steele; as far as I’m aware he had no setbacks in his rehab starts. I expect him to be ready to go opening day..

SP depth: Bring back either Peterson or Boyd. Turn them into long relief Rea type guys if the rotation is set opening day, but if the stuff hits the fan with injuries we have options because we need SP depth. We need to have at least 6 solid starters going into the season because you can count on 2 of them getting hurt. 

The big focus needs to be landing Morejón as a free agent. Give him whatever he wants. I’d be okay with losing Suzuki if we can secure Morejón. I wouldn’t be mad with a bullpen of Morejón, Zeferjahn, Palencia, Miller, maybe Brown. 

If Jeds serious get Skubal and Morejón, or King and Morejón. Maybe one of those Padres coming to the Cubs would sway the other idk. 

From Jed’s interview these are the vibes I got:

- Happ is more realistic to return than Suzuki. Although Suzuki is the guy we’d want. Honestly though he seems to be talking up Shaw and Ramirez and I bet one or both of them is in the OF.  If we add some elite arms to the rotation and bullpen I’ll take Shaw/Ramirez in a corner OF spot and Conforto in the other. Mix and match. But we would be losing a LOT of middle of lineup power in Happ/Suzuki in this case so that needs to be considered.  Shaw/Ramirez are 10-15 HR guys max. 

- it seem like any money that will be spent, will be spent on the bullpen and pitching. I sure hope that’s true. 

 

Edited Sunday at 06:24 PM by Nolo

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Jaime Moyer makes sense as a new pitching coach. 

Is this.a thing? I wasn't aware he was coaching

Edited Sunday at 06:02 PM by Tangled Up in Plaid