Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[chibears55]

16 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Swanson and Hoerner aren’t that movable with their contracts. Busch has years of control and would probably get a decent return. He’s solid but not untouchable. 

Was just saying Hoyer wont move these guys but new management might consider it even if its for little returns.

I get both contract are high for mostly glove first players, was just using their names as examples 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hartshorn needs to show he can handle two more levels of minor leagues offensively and there are already a bunch of questions about his ability to play the outfield at all. Happ is absolutely flawed, but if we can get a +.800 OPS against RHP with good defense at below market rates, we shouldn't ignore it because a 19 year old had a good year in high A.

I agree. I think people are rushing Hartshorn off of a very good first year. I would be fine with Happ either taking the QO or agreeing to end his career a Cubs on a discounted 3 year deal. If he wants to remain a Cub and is willing to play here cheaper than he would somewhere else we can keep him. Even in 3 years Hartshorn is only 22. Happ isn’t blocking him. 

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, mul21 said:

https://fansided.com/mlb/wrigley-fields-wind-has-a-massive-effect-on-scoring-according-to-data

That's not hard evidence but the fact is that Wrigley is volatile and being able to score runs in a variety of ways is probably more important to the Cubs than many other teams.

Eh. Wind blowing in, wind blowing out.....just get on base. We're not necessarily stacking up a bunch of Jorge Soler/Sal Perez type players. We've scored 5 more runs than the Brewers over the last two years, even with them being the best in OBP (we're third), because we're outslugging them by 26 points. The offensive approach is fine. Especially given I have very little interest in....a slap hitting corner outfielder or whatever. 

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

That's underselling what the kid did pretty significantly when you take into account his age and the comps to others who've put up similar numbers with similar underlying metrics at the same age.

I hope he keeps dominating and figures out how to stick in the outfield. But keeping an outfield spot carved out for a current 19 year old to maybe, best case, fill in 2028 is a small market move. Especially given we have two outfield spots open right now and (in my mind) zero in house solutions (by which I mean, league average outfield hitters) under contract for 2027. 

[Bertz]

23 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

Why is everyone so sure Happ will take a QO? He's the 3rd best FA OF available. Its his last chance for a decent payday before retirement. He should easily command the same AAV over 3 years, for example 

This is fair I think he'd take the offer but it's not a slam dunk.  It's a pretty dogshit FA class on the position player side.  That said Happ had a rough (though not disastrous) platform year, the CBA is going to make this not a fun year to be a FA, and he obviously loves it here.

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I was right in line with you until this one. Any specific reason on this? Just don't want to further empty the farm after Rojas and Ballesteros? I'm kinda resigned to Ramirez or Shaw having at least the RHH side of an outfield platoon spot going into next year, but I still do not see either of them as viable outfielders and would rather get one certain OF and a cheap veteran platoon (Conforto/whoever) for the other. Which makes Shaw and Ramirez as valuable but very redundant pieces. 

I'm sure there are specific deals where I'd be like "okay yeah I'm down for that" but broadly I don't have any interest in moving Shaw or Ramirez, the farm would be in dire straights if we made a trade without touching the big league club, and the FA class on the pitching side is pretty deep even if the top end (Skubal aside) is uninspired.

Basically we have money to spend and there are guys worth spending on so I'd prefer to address the situation with the checkbook.

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm sure there are specific deals where I'd be like "okay yeah I'm down for that" but broadly I don't have any interest in moving Shaw or Ramirez, the farm would be in dire straights if we made a trade without touching the big league club, and the FA class on the pitching side is pretty deep even if the top end (Skubal aside) is uninspired.

Basically we have money to spend and there are guys worth spending on so I'd prefer to address the situation with the checkbook.

See I think, given the amount of help that we need, getting a cost controlled guy is really the only way to give yourself a chance at a top end guy. Otherwise, my fear is that you end up with (potentially multiple) 2027 version's of Taillon contracts. I'm not super inspired by the below, especially if the goal is improvement beyond relying on health.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Busch is also one of the few disposable players that could net a decent return for some younger arms with years of control. I’m not saying that he should be traded, I don’t think he’ll be traded, but I’m not against it either. This team isn’t in as good of a spot as they were a year ago with all the pitching injuries and unloading a lot of the farm to fix a broken rotation.

There’s enough redundant bats with 20-25 home run power. 

Busch is good and cheap, I don't know how trading him would make us better without having a good 1B prospect to replace him.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Busch is good and cheap, I don't know how trading him would make us better without having a good 1B prospect to replace him.

I think in terms of Busch I'm just going to close my eyes and hope he gets better. Whether it's going back to predominantly hitting RHPs, or ideally keeping his slightly above average hitting vs LHP but taking a step forward against RHP. Agree that trading him would be a step back. Think it's likely that the next guy ready to replace him is Hartshorn, but at that point, if we want to go that route that means Busch is not a first division starter and he'll be down another 1-1.5 years of team control, so not sure that's worth much. Just need him to get back to where he was. 

[Outshined_One]

I'm kinda leaning into the idea of using Hartshorn in a trade for a top level pitcher.  There's enough Shiny New Toy happening with him that his value might never be higher, and I can see a team like the Pirates or Mariners buying into him as a potential franchise RF/1B.

[chopsx9]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Busch is good and cheap, I don't know how trading him would make us better without having a good 1B prospect to replace him.

Yeah, I think Busch gets another year before they look at 1B with any seriousness.

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

is there actually some support for this being important? somewhat of a legitimate question, would be interested to see if there's something that can prove that out. in my mind, just stack as many non-out getters as possible, if they can hit the ball far, even better. 

I’m going off of anecdotes and opinion.
 

I’d like an alternative path to a 110 wRC+ from a hitter (Nico of last year instead of Ian Happ of this year.) Different profiles will help you score more consistently in different environments, situations and matchups.

To Only win 89 games with a +147 run differential and 21 games of 10+ runs while at the same time being shutouts 13 times is too boom or bust.
The bullpen is the other obvious reason, but the way they can just turn off like a light switch is concerning. Nico coincidentally was the only productive hitter in the playoffs who’s a very different flavor of hitter than the other 8.

They’ve been stacking blowout wins and run differential every single year since 2023. They have the run differential of a 92 win team on average and yet they’ve only won an average of 87 games.
It’s noteworthy too that they’re top 5 in soft contact rate as a team and it checks out with a pull heavy approach where you’re susceptible to weak contact which hurts you in RISP opportunities where all you need is a hard hit grounder or an inside out swing to line a single to the opposite field. 

 

Edited 17 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m going off of anecdotes and opinion.
 

I’d like an alternative path to a 110 wRC+ from a hitter (Nico of last year instead of Ian Happ of this year.) Different profiles will help you score more consistently in different environments, situations and matchups.

To Only win 89 games with a +147 run differential and 21 games of 10+ runs while at the same time being shutouts 13 times is very boom or bust. The bullpen is the other obvious reason, but the way they can just turn off like a light switch is concerning. Nico coincidentally was the only productive hitter in the playoffs who’s a very different flavor of hitter than the other 8.
It’s noteworthy too that they’re top 5 in soft contact rate as a team and it checks out with a pull heavy approach where you’re susceptible to weak contact which hurts you in RISP opportunities where all you need a single run. 
 

I'm discounting the soft contact rate given the top 2 teams in soft contact rate won 98 and 87 games (and Toronto and Seattle, the third and fourth teams, weren't awful either). The top 5 teams in terms of soft contact were a combined 24 games over .500. The bottom five teams were 5 games under. 

We scored the most runs in baseball. Occam's razor for me is just bad sequencing (not necessarily batter to batter but game to game) more than a problem that needs to be fixed. 

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm discounting the soft contact rate given the top 2 teams in soft contact rate won 98 and 87 games (and Toronto and Seattle, the third and fourth teams, weren't awful either). The top 5 teams in terms of soft contact were a combined 24 games over .500. The bottom five teams were 5 games under. 

We scored the most runs in baseball. Occam's razor for me is just bad sequencing (not necessarily batter to batter but game to game) more than a problem that needs to be fixed. 

Maybe another question to ask, and I have no idea how or where this data might come from, is are pull heavy players/teams more prone to running hot and cold?  Like, do the mechanics of being a pull heavy hitter cause there to be such little room for error that guys tend to go ice cold if they're not in perfect alignment with their swing? I have no idea, I'm just throwing ideas out there because I can't recall offenses being this streaky like the Cubs have been the last 2 seasons.

[Geographyhater8888]

11 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm discounting the soft contact rate given the top 2 teams in soft contact rate won 98 and 87 games (and Toronto and Seattle, the third and fourth teams, weren't awful either). The top 5 teams in terms of soft contact were a combined 24 games over .500. The bottom five teams were 5 games under. 

We scored the most runs in baseball. Occam's razor for me is just bad sequencing (not necessarily batter to batter but game to game) more than a problem that needs to be fixed. 

Being a top scoring offense isn’t at all a problem. The way they distribute runs has contributed to underperformance of expected win loss record because of a bunch of blowout wins. It’s been a theme for the last 4 years.
 

Obviously the pitching staff is the biggest problem but it’s too deep of a hole to dig themselves out of. The elements in Wrigley specifically make it difficult to string together hits when the wind is blowing in when lacking the type of hitters who can Brewer their way into scoring. 
So I’d prefer a 110 wRC+ from Nico of 2025 then Happ of this year with the mix of bats we already have, and Kwan is that hypothetical fit.

Edited 17 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Maybe another question to ask, and I have no idea how or where this data might come from, is are pull heavy players/teams more prone to running hot and cold?  Like, do the mechanics of being a pull heavy hitter cause there to be such little room for error that guys tend to go ice cold if they're not in perfect alignment with their swing? I have no idea, I'm just throwing ideas out there because I can't recall offenses being this streaky like the Cubs have been the last 2 seasons.

I think it has something to do with a shortened sweet spot. Also, when you’re not waiting on pitches you’re vulnerable against changeups. 

It could be a complete coincidence, but 21 10+ run scoring games and 13 shutout losses is something to look closely at.

[Bertz]

36 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

See I think, given the amount of help that we need, getting a cost controlled guy is really the only way to give yourself a chance at a top end guy. Otherwise, my fear is that you end up with (potentially multiple) 2027 version's of Taillon contracts. I'm not super inspired by the below, especially if the goal is improvement beyond relying on health.

I mean there is exactly 1 top end guy and he's going to command a contract that we know is not going to happen here (and unlike Ohtani/Soto I'm personally all that wistful about it).

It definitely sucks that there is not a Max Fried or a Dylan Cease in this class.  A 7/$175 pitcher would fit like a glove rjght now.  But there's not, not even really close unless the Japanese guys are more well thought of than I realize. 

So I think it's really a situation like "Here's $60M and 3 roster spots, try to buy as much WAR as you can" as opposed to trying to fill specific roles or niches.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Trevor Rogers was inconsistent but when he was good he was really good.

[squally1313]

yeah Griffin and Rogers stand out to me. Not sure what Peralta would command but a bounce back year though could be a strategic move. 

This is the definition of beating a dead horse, but once again the Mariners offense was terrible and they took their very good starting pitching and stacked Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan right behind the established group. Go give them an infielder. 

[CubinNY]

15 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

you guys wanna take bets on who tweets this and when? my money is on Bruce Levine, December 2.

 

“According to industry sources, the Cubs are not inclined to wade in the deep end of the free agent pitching pool, which includes Tarik Skubal and Adrian Morejon. They believe the 2nd tier of pitchers contains a number of intriguing options and are likely to adopt a wait and see approach.”

After they sign with another team

”The Cubs were early bidders but quickly bowed out when talks and money escalated beyond their comfort zone. They will now pivot to the next crop of free agent pitchers.”

Edited 16 hours ago by CubinNY

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, chopsx9 said:

Yeah, I think Busch gets another year before they look at 1B with any seriousness.

Busch will absolutely get another season,  and if he struggles again,  then theyll likely consider Hartshorn for 2028 if he continues to play well

[Funky-daddy]

What do yall think of giving Bubic a shot?

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

What do yall think of giving Bubic a shot?

You can talk yourself into him being a legitimate TOR guy in 2027 if he could just stay healthy, but recent injury struggles seem to suggest otherwise.  Depending on your perspective, he could be another Matthew Boyd...or another Edward Cabrera.

On a one to two year prove it deal as the third or fourth best pitcher acquired this offseason?  Sure, why not?

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

What do yall think of giving Bubic a shot?

Big fan.  One of the nice things about plainly needing so much pitching is that high risk high reward guys like Bubic or Jack Flaherty or Shane Bieber are firmly on the table.

[Stratos]

23 hours ago, Derwood said:

I am going on the extremely negative notion that none of the current starters are going to be of any use whatsoever next year. Steele, Horton, Cabrera, Brown, Boyd.....all dead to me. Start from scratch

I still like Cabrera's potential.   Maybe you get 80-100 innings from him next year (of unknown quality).

Brown maybe you get another 2 months of starts.  Steele and Horton i would start with the assumption they aren't useful.

The Cubs may need to acquire another 5-6 SP this winter, which is a difficult ask for Hoyer.

[gflore34]

I've seen mentions of Wiggins as an option for 2028, why can't he be a possible bullpen option for 2027?  Provided, of course, he's healthy.  Wiggins I view through the same lens as Horton.  Guys who can't stay healthy and may never be serious contributors.  Nevertheless, should Wiggins' health prevail, why not a bullpen option?