Craig Counsell's Mystifying Monday Screwup Continues a Troubling Trend

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

There's really no excuse for it. You can make one, but you're just going to tie yourself into knots and sound silly. Blame can be shifted to the offense, who didn't do enough to win the average game, but this wasn't an average game—and it was very much a playoff-like game, the likes of which the Cubs need to be practicing winning. Craig Counsell can offer rationalizations for his choice to let Matthew Boyd start the eighth inning Monday afternoon, but even he must not believe them. He simply failed at his job, at a pivotal moment.

Boyd and the Cubs held a 2-1 lead in the middle of the eighth inning of their Labor Day tilt with the division-leading Brewers. It was a taut and exciting game, thanks to a boisterous holiday crowd and all the emotions tied up in every encounter between these neighboring teams since Counsell defected from Milwaukee to Chicago. The eighth, ninth and top spots in the Brewers lineup were due, and Boyd had thrown 87 pitches. Ryan Zeferjahn was ready in the Chicago bullpen.

Counsell, however, has managed like he's terrified of his own instincts when facing the Brewers over the last two seasons, and he made another mistake born of that hesitation. Despite Boyd preparing to face Garrett Mitchell and Joey Ortiz for the third time and try to get an out in the eighth for the first time all year, Counsell left him in, eschewing (for the moment) Zeferjahn. 

That's not who Counsell is, as a manager. He's dealt with a shaky bullpen all season, and Zeferjahn is as suspect as anyone the team has relied on in high-leverage situations during that time, but he's also pitched well lately. He would have offered a vastly different look than Boyd to Mitchell and Ortiz (or, if it came to that, pinch-hitter Jake Bauers), who had already seen the tiring veteran southpaw twice. This is simple stuff. No version of Counsell that existed before he came to Chicago—and, really, no version of him who has ever managed against any team other than the Brewers—sends out his starter to pitch in that situation, but when facing his former team and his former mentor, Counsell hasn't been himself.

It was a fatal error. Boyd knew he couldn't sneak a fastball past Mitchell, and didn't try, but after getting ahead 1-2, he couldn't land either his changeup or his slider anywhere near the zone. He issued a leadoff walk that conveyed the emptiness of the tank as much in the way it happened as in the fact of it. Counsell stuck with him, though, to face Ortiz. After touching 94 early in the outing and sitting 92-93 through the middle innings, he dipped to 90.4 on one fastball to the Brewers' No. 9 hitter—and even then, he wasn't able to hit the zone with it. Ortiz did the hurler a small favor by fouling off two 2-2 pitches that weren't strikes, but when Boyd then hung a curveball in the zone, the quick-twitch righty batter laced it into the corner for a double. Finally, Counsell made his move. It was too late, and far too little.

Put in no position to succeed, Zeferjahn failed. He started Jackson Chourio with two fine sinkers to get ahead 0-2, but his sweeper wasn't competitive. When forced to come back over the plate with a fastball, he threw one just above the top of the zone, but it was another sinker—that's his new M.O., even if it's not conducive to missing bats (as he needed to do in that crucial situation)—and Chourio got on top of it with ease. The inning unraveled from there, with Jacob Webb unable to do any more to stop the bleeding than Zeferjahn had done.

It's easy to dismiss Counsell's role in the meltdown, given that Zeferjahn was the clear choice to pitch in Boyd's stead to begin the inning and that he didn't get the job done, but context is everything. Had he entered with a clean inning and Mitchell been his man, there's a good chance Zeferjahn would have gotten that out. He might have then had to face Bauers—that pinch-hit opportunity was probably what scared Counsell out of going right to his reliever—but that matchup would have been preferable to asking Boyd to slog through a third showdown with Ortiz.

The times-through-the-order penalty is Sabermetrics 101, and Counsell demonstrated a comprehensive understanding of it when he managed Milwaukee. The situation screamed for Zeferjahn to start the frame. Had he done so, even if he'd gotten to Chourio with one on and one out, he would have had far more options for getting him out than he had under the circumstances in which he actually entered: tying run on third, go-ahead run on second, no outs, no margin for error. All of that is to say nothing of the mismanagement of personalities and emotions. Zeferjahn needed the clear mind and the confidence of getting the ball with the bases empty, or at least with some space between his back and the wall. His manager denied him that. He also let down his de facto ace, by forgetting that the only thing separating a pitcher who's cruising from one who's bruised is time.

Counsell is not, by and large, a bad manager. However, he's been ruthlessly beaten by Pat Murphy in every important game the two have played against one another over the last three seasons, and Monday ensured what was already obvious to everyone: the Brewers will cruise to a fourth straight NL Central title. Meanwhile, the Cubs fell back behind the Phillies in the scramble for the right to host the Wild Card Series. It was a huge loss, on a day when Boyd was masterful and Pete Crow-Armstrong was sensational, with two stolen bases and a home run in a game the team would lose 4-3. You can't pay top dollar for a manager, firing a skipper under contract for the express purpose of making the upgrade, and watch him flop this way. Together, Counsell and Hoyer continue to disappoint Cubs fans who believe the team's aspiration should be to return to the World Series.

For that matter, they disappoint others, too—the ones who notice that the only one of the original 16 big-league teams not to enjoy a decade of dominance in their league or division since the integration of the game is the one who dominates the league's third-biggest market. Monday was a sad reminder that, while Crow-Armstrong has made this season a joyous one at many turns, ownership's satisfaction with padding their pockets and slouching toward October every year remains unshaken. Hoyer is in no danger of losing his job. Neither is Counsell. But neither has done enough to make the Second City's first team more than a second-class citizen in their own division. Hoyer continues to be outdone by Matt Arnold. Counsell continues to be outfoxed by Murphy. And Milwaukee continues to make Chicago look like, well, Milwaukee. David has felled Goliath so many times that the story has worn as smooth as the stones in his sling.

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[jewbytuesday]

IMO it’s pretty hard to blame this one on Counsell. The Cubs have literally zero high leverage arms available. That’s not on him. Fact remains the Cubs have broken several promising arms this season (Cabrera, Palencia, Zeferjahn) and from where I sit there are virtually zero pitching development wins across the entire organization.

To that end - is it time to ask whether the organization should be questioning the degree to which it entrusts Zombro? It seems like he entered the organization and the pitching development went from mediocre to entirely bombed out and depleted. 
 
Ultimately given the structure of the game in 2026 it seems futile to be thinking about the Cubs making a deep run until the pitching development infrastructure shows the ability to at a minimum match its caliber under Jim Hendry. 

[mk49]

Poor Boyd.  He pitched great for the first time in a while, except for the last 2 hitters.  Everyone knows our bullpen simply sucks.  Like Shota came back in the 7th with 90+ pitches a few days ago, Boyd did, too in the 8th.  Counsell could've/should've made the pitching change after the leadoff walk, but he didn't.  With runners on 1B and 2B, nobody out, I can't blame Zeferjahn, either.  

The Cubs should have scored more earlier, with RISP.  At least, I liked how Boyd pitched today, and it gave him some confidence boost.

Edited Tuesday at 01:06 AM by mk49

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Boyd vs Mitchell and Ortiz the third time through is favorable to Zeferjahn vs Mitchell and PH Bauers with their decided platoon advantage. 

[Bill Fogg]

I walked away from the game at the start of the bottom of the 8th, I wanted to scream at Counsell because I knew he was going to have Boyd start the 8th due to a left-handed batter for the Brewers. This game was being played similar to a playoff game. Murphy took out his starter in the top of the 5th even though he was pitching well. Most playoff games are decided by the bullpens in today's baseball. The days of starters throwing complete games are almost as rare as no-hitters. The Brewers have one of the top bullpens in baseball and we have - let's not go there. 

   Anyway, Boyd pitched great for 7 innings but I would have pulled him before the start of the 8th. If the Cubs are going anywhere in the playoffs, they need to find a couple of bullpen arms to use. Most managers talk about trying to put their players in a position to succeed which Counsell seems to have forgot. Most relievers in today's baseball prefer to start the inning rather than come in and put out a fire. Bringing in a reliever in the high leverage situation that we were in [ 2nd & 3rd no outs with Churio batting ] is extremely tough for any reliever.  When Boyd walked the leadoff hitter after being ahead in the count, shouldn't that have been a huge sign that Boyd was getting tired and it was time to bring in a fresh arm [ actually a new pitcher should have started the inning ] but once you left him in for the first batter why not change pitchers after the walk ?  

   If Zeferjahn's comes in with a runner on first and no one out, why would we be afraid that the Brewers pinch hit ? Isn't it more likely that the Brewers sacrifice the runner into scoring position and we face the top of the order with one out and a runner on second ? I just grit my teeth that the Cubs brain trust can't understand how important a strong bullpen is. We still have a couple of weeks to try and get Palencia [ and his confidence ] back in form and Zeferjahn at times looks good but there is no help coming [ maybe Cabrera can help ] and we need to put our bullpen arms in a position to succeed. We also can't afford to throw away winnable games because we're afraid to bring in a fresher arm when one of our starters begin to tire. There is a reason why teams carry 13 pitchers. 

[Patrick88]

If it makes Cubs fans feel any better, Craigers will be looking for a new job after next season.  It is going to look a lot like a rebuild this time next year.  Enjoy this year while you can.  The Cubs also managed to waste an MVP year from PCA, just like they did with Sammy, Ryne and Andre.  Also, I don't understand why they aren't more Brewers fans from Chicago.  They should be the unofficial team of Chicago.  They have had more success than the Cubs ever have dreamed of having.  It baffles me.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

If it makes Cubs fans feel any better, Craigers will be looking for a new job after next season.  It is going to look a lot like a rebuild this time next year.  Enjoy this year while you can.  The Cubs also managed to waste an MVP year from PCA, just like they did with Sammy, Ryne and Andre.  Also, I don't understand why they aren't more Brewers fans from Chicago.  They should be the unofficial team of Chicago.  They have had more success than the Cubs ever have dreamed of having.  It baffles me.  

Wait when did I miss the Brewers winning a championship?

[Patrick88]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Wait when did I miss the Brewers winning a championship?

they have sustained success.  That is something the Cubs never have had.  I'd take sustained success, rather than winning once in 108 years.  Brewers have a really good chance of having one this November.  

[gflore34]

47 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

If it makes Cubs fans feel any better, Craigers will be looking for a new job after next season.  It is going to look a lot like a rebuild this time next year.  Enjoy this year while you can.  The Cubs also managed to waste an MVP year from PCA, just like they did with Sammy, Ryne and Andre.  Also, I don't understand why they aren't more Brewers fans from Chicago.  They should be the unofficial team of Chicago.  They have had more success than the Cubs ever have dreamed of having.  It baffles me.  

Really?  Crack a book -  Brewers - 4494-4651, .491 W-L%, 11 playoff appearances, 1 pennant

Cubs - 11500-10901, .513 W-L%, 22 playoff appearances, 17 pennants, 3 WS

 

Your Brewers are 17th all time in wins, the Cubs are third.  Cubs 6th all time in W-L%, Brewers 17th.

Edited Tuesday at 04:52 PM by gflore34

[macarthur31]

As long as Jed Hoyer is President of the Cubs, I got a hard time imagining he'd want anyone else but Counsell managing the club.  Counsell aligns with Jed on the use of analytics, and yet tap into his decorated playing experience to inform a clubhouse culture where everyone is pulling in the same direction.  

 

[Bill Fogg]

I know I've been very critical of Counsell, but I seriously doubt that he will be leaving. Although I don't agree with his managing style, he appears to have the support of the players and upper management and I don't see any great advantage to cutting him loose while still paying him an above average salary for a baseball manager. If the Cubs don't win the World Series the 'injury to pitchers excuse' gives both Counsell & Hoyer a 'Get Out of Jail Free Card' . 

The franchise is financially healthy, the owner is happy [ at least I would assume ] and interest in the Cubs is [ thanks to PCA ] about as high as it's ever been. There is more to being a successful manager than just handling pitchers or making lineup and playing decisions. Counsell doesn't make pitching decisions without input from a pitching coach and game management decisions from his bench coach. His overall winning record is good but a glaring omission on his resume is success in playoffs. 

We were all happy in 2015 when the Cubs brought in Joe Madden who changed the culture and got the Cubs across the finish line to win the World Series even though he choked on his pitching decisions by overusing Aroldis Chapman in games 6 & 7. Baseball can be a strange game, and sometimes stupid decisions work out. There is still plenty of baseball to be played and who knows what will happen when the playoffs start. Hopefully we make the playoffs and Counsell learns from his mistakes and we go on a long playoff run.   

[Patrick88]

4 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Really?  Crack a book -  Brewers - 4494-4651, .491 W-L%, 11 playoff appearances, 1 pennant

Cubs - 11500-10901, .513 W-L%, 22 playoff appearances, 17 pennants, 3 WS

 

Your Brewers are 17th all time in wins, the Cubs are third.  Cubs 6th all time in W-L%, Brewers 17th.

I am talking about recently.  I'd rather have the Brewers past success in the past 15 years vs the Cubs success in the past 15 years.    The Brewers have owned the Cubs and will continuing owning the Cubs.  The Brewers are also the 2nd best organization in baseball.  They could beat the best organization this fall.

[gflore34]

15 hours ago, Patrick88 said:

I am talking about recently.  I'd rather have the Brewers past success in the past 15 years vs the Cubs success in the past 15 years.    The Brewers have owned the Cubs and will continuing owning the Cubs.  The Brewers are also the 2nd best organization in baseball.  They could beat the best organization this fall.

Still, need to crack a book, it's the last 10 years and really, the last 5, also baseball tends to run in cycles,. Asserting the Brewers will continue owning (Cubs won the season series in 2025, lost by one game in the PS, that's pretty far from owning them) the Cubs is probably not going to happen.  There's a better chance the Brewers will never eclipse the Cubs in playoff and WS appearances. 

Edited yesterday at 12:39 PM by gflore34

[Patrick88]

16 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Still, need to crack a book, it's the last 10 years and really, the last 5, also baseball tends to run in cycles,. Asserting the Brewers will continue owning (Cubs won the season series in 2025, lost by one game in the PS, that's pretty far from owning them) the Cubs is probably not going to happen.  There's a better chance the Brewers will never eclipse the Cubs in playoff and WS appearances. 

Brewers have a shot this November.  If they don't do it this year, then maybe next year.  Maybe next year means something in Milwaukee.

[Patrick88]

20 hours ago, macarthur31 said:

As long as Jed Hoyer is President of the Cubs, I got a hard time imagining he'd want anyone else but Counsell managing the club.  Counsell aligns with Jed on the use of analytics, and yet tap into his decorated playing experience to inform a clubhouse culture where everyone is pulling in the same direction.  

 

those two will be fired very soon though.

[Patrick88]

16 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Still, need to crack a book, it's the last 10 years and really, the last 5, also baseball tends to run in cycles,. Asserting the Brewers will continue owning (Cubs won the season series in 2025, lost by one game in the PS, that's pretty far from owning them) the Cubs is probably not going to happen.  There's a better chance the Brewers will never eclipse the Cubs in playoff and WS appearances. 

I'd still rather be the Brewers since 2011, than the Cubs since 2011.  

[macarthur31]

3 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

those two will be fired very soon though.

If Tom Ricketts wanted to go another direction, he would've done so already - instead he extended Jed.  C'mon dude.

[Rex Buckingham]

1 hour ago, Patrick88 said:

I'd still rather be the Brewers since 2011, than the Cubs since 2011.  

then you're an absolute fool. The Cubs won a freaking World Series, the Brewers haven't even gotten to a World Series

The Cubs won more playoff series in 2016 than the Brewers have won since 2011, and as many in the other years of your sample as the Brewers have won in that entire sample. 

Leave this board you troll

[Patrick88]

56 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

then you're an absolute fool. The Cubs won a freaking World Series, the Brewers haven't even gotten to a World Series

The Cubs won more playoff series in 2016 than the Brewers have won since 2011, and as many in the other years of your sample as the Brewers have won in that entire sample. 

Leave this board you troll

that is my opinion though.  I'd rather have sustained success, than just one year of winning.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

that is my opinion though.  I'd rather have sustained success, than just one year of winning.  

The Cubs had more than 1 winning season. They went to 3 straight NLCS. They have done more than Milwaukee over the last 10 years. 

 

Listen to what the horsefeathers you're saying man.

[Patrick88]

21 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Cubs had more than 1 winning season. They went to 3 straight NLCS. They have done more than Milwaukee over the last 10 years. 

 

Listen to what the horsefeathers you're saying man.

Brewers are going to the NLCS this year, and I think they win it all.

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

Brewers are going to the NLCS this year, and I think they win it all.

"If 'ifs and buts' were candy and nuts..."

Your entire post history has mostly come down to "what is actually happening/happened" versus "what is maybe happening in the future". The Cubs should trade PCA because of (insert some random Chicken Little sky-is-falling thing in the future)" I'd rather be the Brewers because (insert prediction of the future). 

It's very easy to make hot-take predictions about things in the future, friend. When cornered on an opinion, this is what you run to. But when happens if the Brewers don't win a World Series this year? Are we just going to pivot to them winning it...next year? 

[Patrick88]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

"If 'ifs and buts' were candy and nuts..."

Your entire post history has mostly come down to "what is actually happening/happened" versus "what is maybe happening in the future". The Cubs should trade PCA because of (insert some random Chicken Little sky-is-falling thing in the future)" I'd rather be the Brewers because (insert prediction of the future). 

It's very easy to make hot-take predictions about things in the future, friend. When cornered on an opinion, this is what you run to. But when happens if the Brewers don't win a World Series this year? Are we just going to pivot to them winning it...next year? 

yes, the Brewers will be contending for a world series next year.  the Cubs will be mediocre.  I said the Cubs should trade PCA, because it would be a waste to keep him around.  Keeping him around his like having Sammy and Ryne all over again.  Just waiting the career of a player.