Cubs Offseason Rotation Primer: An Injury-Plagued Group Begging for Reinforcements

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In 2026, the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation battled through injuries and ineffectiveness, but they still had enough to land a postseason spot. They finished in the bottom third in xERA (22nd), K/9 (22nd), HR/9 (28th) and fWAR (28th). They did finish tenth in innings pitched, but that says more about the distrust Craig Counsell had in the bullpen.

In theory, they had a solid plan. Familiar faces Matt Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, sophomore fireballer Cade Horton and their big offseason trade acquisition Edward Cabrera would round out the rotation, with Justin Steele set to return mid-season. There was even hope for an eventual debut from top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins.

Well, we know how that went. The injury bug bit hard, wiping Horton from the active roster after two starts. Cabrera went to the injured list three times, while Steele and Wiggins didn’t end up making an MLB appearance at all. The Cubs were forced to hit the trade market hard for starting pitching, acquiring David Peterson in a June swap, and Kevin Gausman along with Clay Holmes at the deadline.

Thus, in 2027, this group is going to look very different. Imanaga, Peterson, and Gausman are free agents. Holmes and Boyd have just declined their options as well, so they will also be hitting the open market. There are some interesting options out there, headlined by Tarik Skubal, and we know the front office is not shy when it comes to making trades. Before any offseason moves, though, let's at least go over all the in-house options the Cubs have at their disposal.

Cubs' 2027 Rotation Outlook: Every Starter Currently on the Roster

Edward Cabrera

Though his 2026 was mired by injuries and effectiveness, he still has one of the highest ceilings on the active roster. He pitched a career high 137⅔ innings in 2025 with the Marlins, with a fastball averaging 97 mph and a 3.53 ERA. He turns 29 in April, and while he may never live up to his potential as a frontline arm, he can still be a solid mid-rotation starter. With the way the roster currently looks, combined with the fact that they moved their top outfield prospect Owen Caissie in the trade, the Cubs can’t afford any less from Cabrera for his tenure to be considered successful.

Ben Brown

Brown put together the best season of his career so far in 2026. He began the year in the bullpen, but was thrown into the rotation in early May. He made eight starts, allowing one or fewer earned runs in six of them. In his 42⅓ innings pitched as a starter, he had a 1.70 ERA with 41 strikeouts while giving up only one home run. He was looking like their next breakout pitcher, and was on track for a potential All-Star nod, but went down with a neck injury at the end of June. He was expected to return in about a month, but a setback cost him the rest of the season. This was his second neck strain since his debut in 2024. If he is healthy, the 27-year-old is one of the highest upside options that the Cubs have going into next season.

Justin Steele

Back in 2022, Steele broke out as the Cubs' ace over his last seven starts of the season, posting a 0.98 ERA with 49 strikeouts. Easily the best starter on their staff across the 2023-2024 seasons, he went into 2025 leading the rotation that had legitimate playoff aspirations for the first time since the World Series core disbanded. That dream only lasted four starts, as he went to the injured list for a UCL surgery that would cost him the season. He was expected to return around the All-Star break for 2026, but a series of setbacks kept pushing the return date further and further. There was hope he would get some work out of the bullpen in September, but that never happened and now here we are. He should be healthy for 2027, which is his last year of arbitration. With the current state of the Cubs’ rotation, they are going to need Steele to return to pre-injury form quickly and pitch like a frontline starter again.

Cade Horton

One of baseball's biggest breakout candidates for 2026, Horton lasted all of two starts before going under the knife for elbow surgery. The estimated recovery time is 15-16 months, which would put his hypothetical return around the All-Star break next year. Horton is their most promising young arm, so he probably won't take on much volume even when he does return. This marks the second UCL surgery for Horton, who had Tommy John back in 2021 at Oklahoma. His return will be a nice bonus for the Cubs, even if it is in the bullpen, but the team should plan their pitching staff like they won’t be having him around next season.

Javier Assad

Assad’s role is a bit more ambiguous, like it always has been. The 29-year-old pitched in 28 games in 2026, totaling 94⅓ innings. He made 11 starts, pitching to a 3.49 ERA, but that number is a bit misleading as he had a much more shaky FIP at 5.01. As a reliever, he had a lower FIP of 4.80 but a higher ERA at 3.82. Though his numbers make him about a league-average arm, at least he is consistent whether he is in the bullpen or rotation. Assuming the Cubs sign a couple of free agent starters, Assad will likely begin the season in the bullpen, but he'll be one of the first replacement options whenever injury strikes.

Braxton Garrett

The Cubs acquired the seventh overall pick of the 2016 draft from the Marlins at the deadline shortly after their leaked trade for Reid Detmers fell apart. Garrett has made 10 appearances since the 2024 season, and misses the entirety of 2025. In 2023, he did accumulate 4.3 bWAR in a season where he made 30 starts with a 3.66 ERA. After the trade, he spent almost the entirety of his Cubs tenure in the minors, appearing in only one big league game. Maybe the pitching lab sees something that they can easily tweak, because this trade doesn’t make a ton of sense at face value. He’s already pretty low on the depth chart, but if he is making regular starts at any point next season, something either went really wrong or really right.

Jaxon Wiggins

North Side Baseball’s number three Cubs prospect was once thought to be a secret weapon for 2026 pitching staff as a potential mid-season call-up, similar to Cade Horton in 2025. Much like many others, though, Wiggins' season was affected by injuries almost immediately. After two starts in April, he hit the IL with elbow issues, and ended up only pitching 33⅓ innings at the AAA level. When he did pitch, he was not good, and bounced between the rotation and bullpen. He had a 7.83 ERA over 18 games (seven starts), and although he struck out 41, he issued an inexcusable 31 walks. The health plus control issues cast a doubt on his future as a potential starter. He might end up making more of an immediate impact in the majors as a reliever. That may be the track he is heading toward, because he was moved to the bullpen to finish up the Triple-A season and pitched well, allowing runs in only two of his 11 outings.

Depth Options

As of now, the Cubs have not made a decision on the $7.5 million club option for Colin Rea, who has been a fine bullpen arm/spot starter over the last two seasons. The righty will turn 37 next July, and had a 4.34 ERA in 2026. That price tag might be a bit expensive, but it might be worth it to explore a cheaper reunion.

Righty Brooks Caple has ascended up the prospect lists and currently has a 2027 MLB ETA, per MLB Pipeline. He pitched to a commendable 3.24 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP across 86 innings (16 starts) with Double-A Knoxville and could be in line for an early promotion to Iowa.

Jordan Wicks, the former first-round pick, is still on the 40-man roster and made 21 Triple-A starts this year, leading the Iowa Cubs. His 5.99 ERA in those starts, plus his ineffectiveness in the majors across parts of three seasons, puts him on the periphery of the picture and firmly entrenched into bust territory.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs’ starting pitching pipeline is the single-most important area of weakness that needs to be addressed before the 2027 season, which is almost entirely due to five dependable arms heading to free agency.

Unlike the position player pool, starting pitching options in free agency are pretty deep. They will need an ace to compete again in 2027, which could be anyone like Skubal, Michael King or Freddy Peralta, plus another guy who could confidently start a Game 2 or 3 in a postseason series. This could be Sonny Gray, a reunion with Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez or Trevor Rogers. Really, any two of all of these options would be quite nice.

Another mid-rotation arm like Tyler Mahle, Kris Bubic, Dustin May, Foster Griffin, or even Boyd or Imanaga again would go a long way and take a ton of pressure of Justin Steele and Edward Cabrera. It seems that the 2027 Cubs, once again, are a team that will only go as far as their pitching will take them, and it’s certain the starting rotation will look a lot different than it does right now.