Cubs (Holmes) vs D-backs (Pfaadt): 08/25/26, 8:40 PM

[Brock Beauchamp]

Holmes takes the ball for the Cubs tonight at Chase Field as Chicago faces Pfaadt and the D-backs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Trent Thornton	0	0	18	8	0	26
Ryan Zeferjahn	0	7	0	0	10	17
Ryan Rolison	0	0	6	0	0	6
Jacob Webb	0	11	15	0	0	26
David Peterson	0	0	98	0	0	98
Daniel Palencia	0	10	0	0	0	10
Colin Rea	0	19	0	0	0	19
Caleb Thielbar	0	0	0	8	22	30
Aaron Civale	0	0	0	49	0	49

[Bertz]

Pfaadt is pretty solid.  He's on a heater since he got back from the minors, but mainly it's batted ball luck that he'd been deprived the last few years.  He's still mostly the same guy: a mid-rotationy starter that generally can't be trusted to face the lineup a 3rd time through.

Cubs should still be favored with Holmes on the mound, but it's not as lopsided as yesterday. 

[Tryptamine]

Crazy that Bregman is up to a 115 wRC+ and 3.7 fWAR(2nd highest on the offense) now. He's more or less on pace to match his 2023 and 2024 seasons despite that horrendous first half.

[Tryptamine]

Pedro with the 117 wRC+ is now up to 1.1 fWAR over 171 PAs putting him at a per 600 PAs rate of 3.9 fWAR. Please don't trade him, thanks. 

[squally1313]

Moving the bullpen decision over to today's thread, because what else are we going to do before the Cubs go 6 up 6 down in 12 hours or whatever and people start talking offensive slump. 

Mostly assorted thoughts:

• I love Steele, but I've mostly written him off for this year. Feel like we would have heard more by now, he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game setting in like 16 months now. Free agent after last year, so squeeze the juice while you can, but think it's just too late. Beyond that, while he's a very good starter when healthy....I don't really see the stuff playing up too much in the bullpen? Never been a big strikeout guy. Brown you can see it for sure, but not as much here. 
• I feel bad for Colin Rea, but there's just no way he can keep a roster spot with all the potential moving pieces. Civale, Assad, Cabrera will all be some form of stretched out, there's less need for length now with Holmes and Gausman stabilizing the rotation. 
• Rolison has an option left, he's been fine but seems to be an easy guy to hide for a couple weeks to go see what you have with Miller or Milner. 
• Thielbar can go whenever someone else earns their spot back. Peterson looks fine as the lefty out of the pen to pair with Rolison or Milner.
• It's looking very unlikely that we play the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, but if it ended up playing out that way, I'd be very nervous if I were Shota (and honestly maybe Boyd, he needs to snap out of it) making the roster against their second best in baseball against LHP offense.
• I can maybe buy the velocity improvements on Thornton turning him into a 6th inning guy, but think he's fine to go if there's a reasonable upside bet to be made on Brown/Cabrera/Steele as multi inning beasts.
• Assad is injury depth for the time being. 

[squally1313]

26 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Pedro with the 117 wRC+ is now up to 1.1 fWAR over 171 PAs putting him at a per 600 PAs rate of 3.9 fWAR. Please don't trade him, thanks. 

He's definitely trending in the right direction, but it's currently at the point where his bat looks like it can play an infield position (which we don't have), but still has a ways to go to be a reasonable contender for a corner outfield spot. Now, obviously we need a backup infielder, either for an injury (which have been rare for the Bregman/Swanson/Nico group but not unprecedented), and just as they continue to age to need a little more maintenance. 

But if the rest of the league starts looking at him as a starting infielder making the league minimum.....don't you kinda feel like they have to cash in and swap out that asset for a need? You've already got Shaw floating around that same level for next year (and beyond)....hanging on to both of them and hoping one of them can find another level offensively (the xwOBAs for both are both still hovering around .300) seems less likely than just giving someone an infield bat and taking back an already ready outfield one. 

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Moving the bullpen decision over to today's thread, because what else are we going to do before the Cubs go 6 up 6 down in 12 hours or whatever and people start talking offensive slump. 

Mostly assorted thoughts:

• I love Steele, but I've mostly written him off for this year. Feel like we would have heard more by now, he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game setting in like 16 months now. Free agent after last year, so squeeze the juice while you can, but think it's just too late. Beyond that, while he's a very good starter when healthy....I don't really see the stuff playing up too much in the bullpen? Never been a big strikeout guy. Brown you can see it for sure, but not as much here. 
• I feel bad for Colin Rea, but there's just no way he can keep a roster spot with all the potential moving pieces. Civale, Assad, Cabrera will all be some form of stretched out, there's less need for length now with Holmes and Gausman stabilizing the rotation. 
• Rolison has an option left, he's been fine but seems to be an easy guy to hide for a couple weeks to go see what you have with Miller or Milner. 
• Thielbar can go whenever someone else earns their spot back. Peterson looks fine as the lefty out of the pen to pair with Rolison or Milner.
• It's looking very unlikely that we play the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, but if it ended up playing out that way, I'd be very nervous if I were Shota (and honestly maybe Boyd, he needs to snap out of it) making the roster against their second best in baseball against LHP offense.
• I can maybe buy the velocity improvements on Thornton turning him into a 6th inning guy, but think he's fine to go if there's a reasonable upside bet to be made on Brown/Cabrera/Steele as multi inning beasts.
• Assad is injury depth for the time being. 

Organizing my thoughts a little, I'm ideally looking for something like this in terms of the 14 man pitching staff on September 2nd, and then September 16th or whatever

1. Gausman/Gausman
2. Holmes/Holmes
3. Boyd/Boyd
4. Shota/Shota
5. Peterson/Peterson
6. Webb/Webb
7. Palencia/Palencia
8. Zeferjahn/Zeferjahn
9. Civale/Civale
10. Cabrera/Cabrera
11. Miller/Miller
12. Milner/Milner
13. Thornton/Brown
14. Rolison/Steele

Which implies Thielbar and Rea gone by next week with Cabrera/Miller/Milner up, and then in a few weeks, Thornton being cut for Brown and Rolison being sent down to see if Steele can give you anything. Assad is there if/when any of the guys we give looks to implodes. 

Realizing I forgot about Wiggins, but think he needs to keep things up in AAA for a couple weeks and wait for a spot to open up. 

Apologies for the novels.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Organizing my thoughts a little, I'm ideally looking for something like this in terms of the 14 man pitching staff on September 2nd, and then September 16th or whatever

1. Gausman/Gausman
2. Holmes/Holmes
3. Boyd/Boyd
4. Shota/Shota
5. Peterson/Peterson
6. Webb/Webb
7. Palencia/Palencia
8. Zeferjahn/Zeferjahn
9. Civale/Civale
10. Cabrera/Cabrera
11. Miller/Miller
12. Milner/Milner
13. Thornton/Brown
14. Rolison/Steele

Which implies Thielbar and Rea gone by next week with Cabrera/Miller/Milner up, and then in a few weeks, Thornton being cut for Brown and Rolison being sent down to see if Steele can give you anything. Assad is there if/when any of the guys we give looks to implodes. 

Realizing I forgot about Wiggins, but think he needs to keep things up in AAA for a couple weeks and wait for a spot to open up. 

Apologies for the novels.

Pretty much how I see it as well. I think Milner and Theilbar are pretty interchangeable. You  have Milner, which is fine. Either way, it will only be one of them. 
One quick question. If the minor league season is over and they bring back Steele for Rolison is that a dfa or is it sending a guy back down to the minors, who has an option left? 

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Pretty much how I see it as well. I think Milner and Theilbar are pretty interchangeable. You  have Milner, which is fine. Either way, it will only be one of them. 
One quick question. If the minor league season is over and they bring back Steele for Rolison is that a dfa or is it sending a guy back down to the minors, who has an option left? 

I don't know honestly, would lean towards the latter. AAA goes through 9/20, so it would be a very unlikely circumstance to thread the gap in the wrong way, but also, a Ryan Rolison DFA isn't going to keep me up at night. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know honestly, would lean towards the latter. AAA goes through 9/20, so it would be a very unlikely circumstance to thread the gap in the wrong way, but also, a Ryan Rolison DFA isn't going to keep me up at night. 

Agreed. Just curious. 

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Crazy that Bregman is up to a 115 wRC+ and 3.7 fWAR(2nd highest on the offense) now. He's more or less on pace to match his 2023 and 2024 seasons despite that horrendous first half.

Bregman is a notorious slow starter, last year in Boston was an outlier.  However, his slow starts have generally been 6 weeks not 3 months like this year, which was the scary part. 

[Funky-daddy]

Busch’s 113 wrc+ is very disappointing 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

He's definitely trending in the right direction, but it's currently at the point where his bat looks like it can play an infield position (which we don't have), but still has a ways to go to be a reasonable contender for a corner outfield spot. Now, obviously we need a backup infielder, either for an injury (which have been rare for the Bregman/Swanson/Nico group but not unprecedented), and just as they continue to age to need a little more maintenance. 

But if the rest of the league starts looking at him as a starting infielder making the league minimum.....don't you kinda feel like they have to cash in and swap out that asset for a need? You've already got Shaw floating around that same level for next year (and beyond)....hanging on to both of them and hoping one of them can find another level offensively (the xwOBAs for both are both still hovering around .300) seems less likely than just giving someone an infield bat and taking back an already ready outfield one. 

I'd frankly rather cash out Shaw if that's the direction the team is headed.  Shaw probably has the better ceiling between the two due to his defense, but Ramirez's bat is currently playing much better than Shaw's and Ramirez gives the team a good amount of flexibility when it comes to lineup construction.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'd frankly rather cash out Shaw if that's the direction the team is headed.  Shaw probably has the better ceiling between the two due to his defense, but Ramirez's bat is currently playing much better than Shaw's and Ramirez gives the team a good amount of flexibility when it comes to lineup construction.

Yeah I'd probably lean that way. There's part of me that still thinks if you find a team that puts 'Team Controlled Starting 2B/3B' type value on either one of them, you pull the trigger and get equivalent pitching or outfield value. Dansby/Nico/Bregman are all here through 2030, and are all still clearly superior players. While on one hand it's good to have a reasonably effective backup for an infield made up of over 30 guys, even with Dansby's injury this year there have been 168 infield PAs going to guys not named Busch/Nico/Dansby/Bregman, so if you can get swap one of them (or both, honestly), for an actual outfield bat or SP, you do that and live with Triantos/Murray/league minimum veteran util guy in limited duty. 

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I'd probably lean that way. There's part of me that still thinks if you find a team that puts 'Team Controlled Starting 2B/3B' type value on either one of them, you pull the trigger and get equivalent pitching or outfield value. Dansby/Nico/Bregman are all here through 2030, and are all still clearly superior players. While on one hand it's good to have a reasonably effective backup for an infield made up of over 30 guys, even with Dansby's injury this year there have been 168 infield PAs going to guys not named Busch/Nico/Dansby/Bregman, so if you can get swap one of them (or both, honestly), for an actual outfield bat or SP, you do that and live with Triantos/Murray/league minimum veteran util guy in limited duty. 

I agree with this. Not sure who has more value, but if I am the Cubs either Shaw or Ramirez is moved next season for a controlled starting pitcher. I think they keep Seiya somehow and sign Holmes. Fill the other outfield spot with a combination of guys like whoever is not traded (Shaw or Ramirez), Alcantara, or a FA signing like Conforto.

I guess if they can’t bring Seiya back they can trade one of those guys for outfield help (Abreu, as an example) and then spend what they would have spent on Seiya for a FA pitcher. But I like the idea of a young controlled pitcher better. 

[Derwood]

Cubs now hold the tiebreaker over all three teams chasing them in the wildcard 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Cubs now hold the tiebreaker over all three teams chasing them in the wildcard 

 But not Atlanta, if the Phillies pass them, of if the Cubs pass the Brewers. And I think even if the Cubs beat them 2 of 3 Atlanta wins the next tie breaker after head to head.

[cl smooth]

[gflore34]

21 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

As a thought experiment - if the Brewers had suffered the Cubs' equivalence of pitching injuries how many games would they be under .500?  Putting the Brewers' pitching WAR at the Cubs' level puts them in Mets, Astros, Royals, Giants territory so, they'd be around 10-12 games under .500?

Edited 24 minutes ago by gflore34

[Geographyhater8888]

16 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

As a thought experiment - if the Brewers had suffered the Cubs' equivalence of pitching injuries how many games would they be under .500?  Putting the Brewers' pitching WAR at the Cubs' level puts them in Mets, Astros, Royals, Giants territory so, they'd be around 10-12 games under .500?

They’d have the same record no matter how much war you subtract. It’s illegal for the Brewers to be bad, let alone finish with a worse record than the Cubs. Hypothetically they’d be a 500 team though. 

Edited 11 minutes ago by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

11 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

They’d have the same record no matter how much war you subtract. It’s illegal for the Brewers to be bad, let alone finish with a worse record than the Cubs. Hypothetically they’d be a 500 team though. 

I don't think so, their collection of, save for a few, of cast-offs and oompa loompas only works because of their excellent pitching.