Should the Cubs Call Up Catcher Owen Ayers in September?

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

If not for Josiah Hartshorn becoming the first Cubs teenage farmhand to knock 20 round trippers in a season since Corey Patterson, Owen Ayers would be an easy pick for the organization's Minor League Hitter of the Year. Despite Hartshorn's heroics, you can make a strong argument that Ayers deserves the accolades, considering the rocket ship the former 19th-round pick has been on and how good he's been at every level. As the season winds down, the switch-hitting catcher has done so well that he may earn an even more sought-after prize: a major-league call-up when rosters' expand to 28 players on September 1.

Being called up would be a dream come true for any young player; it has to be. It's the culmination of years of hard work. It's reward for all of the training, practice, blood, sweat and tears. If that isn't enough, it comes with a nifty raise to MLB's league-minimum salary, which is just under $800,000 a year. Ayers signed for $50,000 in 2024, so even a four-week stay on the roster this fall would roughly double his career earnings. The Cubs can't make decisions based on their desire to help dreams come true, though. The call has to be grounded in logistical considerations, as the team tries to make the most of its roster.

The Case for Cubs to Call Up Owen Ayers

Ayers is a player the Chicago Cubs really like. We can see this just based on how they have handled him over the last 365 days. First, they sent him to the Arizona Fall League, an early signal that this wasn't your run-of-the-mill late-round pick. They also acted decisively each time the catcher showed he was too good for a level this season, promoting him from High-A South Bend to Double-A Knoxville after just 11 games, and again from Knoxville to Triple-A Iowa after just 65 more. At the trade deadline, they reportedly made him a sticking point in trade negotiations, opting instead to trade other top prospects Jefferson Rojas and Moisés Ballesteros. It's fair to guess that the team has him in their plans at the MLB level come the 2027 season; they wouldn't have made him such an important factor at the deadline if they didn't. 

While it's impossible to know exactly what the plan is, it's fair to assume that it includes the 25-year-old getting a very real chance to make the Cubs out of spring training. If that's the case, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Cubs give him a 30-day trial period in September. He wouldn't be asked to do a lot as the third catcher, but it would give him a leg up on the upcoming year. While he may not be catching guys in game a lot, it's likely that he would get work on the side to build rapport with the team's pitching staff before turning the keys to the kingdom over to him. The team has made clear that they like to give young players a taste of the big-league life. In other recent Septembers, they've called up Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcántara to acclimate them to the roster, while limiting their playing time with an eye toward the future. 

From a roster-construction perspective, it would make sense, too. Currently, the team has no viable first-base backup option. Pedro Ramírez filled in there a few days ago, but is now needed at second base. The injury that stopped Tyler Austin's season before it began really derailed the Cubs' hopes to have a backup or platoon option for Michael Busch. Ayers has history playing first dating back to his time in college, allowing him to fill a need the team has right now. Having a third catcher can also give you more choices, like using Carson Kelly as the DH against certain lefties. It can allow you to pinch-run for Kelly or Miguel Amaya, knowing you have some flexibility left after that move.

The Case Against Cubs Calling Up Owen Ayers

Not all pertinent factors point toward this move, though. First, you don't have to add him in September. Ayers, despite his age, is not eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft this offseason. The Cubs could keep him off the 40-man roster all offseason, allowing them to protect other players, instead. Spots on the 40-man are always valuable during the winter, and that will only be more true in what's sure to be a freneic and disrupted offseason this year.

Relatedly, with the CBA set to expire this December and a lockout looming, another aspect of the call-up needs to be considered. Players who have not been added to the 40-man roster can play minor-league baseball next spring and start spring training on time, even if the MLBPA is locked out. This could mean anything from a couple extra weeks of work at the team facility to a month of extra games the big-leaguers won't get to participate in, but either way, calling Ayers up next month would expose him to the vagaries of the labor battle. Leaving him in Iowa (where he can also play every day, or nearly so) would shield him from that.

Should the Cubs Call Up Owen Ayers?

While there is no definitive answer, I think calling up Ayers makes sense. Catcher is a position like no other; building trust through reps can never start too soon. Having an eye toward 2027, in that regard, is a good thing. While it's possible that Kelly will remain with the Cubs in 2027 (and beyond), he's a free agent this winter. The team has to make a succession plan, and then adapt that plan if he unexpectedly sticks around on a new deal.

Using the 40-man spot is a real factor, but the team has plenty of flotsam on that list right now that they can turn into jetsam. They might lose a player like BJ Murray in the Rule 5 Draft as a result of using a 40-man spot on Ayers sooner than is needed, but that's not likely to be a big loss.

Another sticking point: it might not even matter. In 2021, just five years ago, we saw a similar issue at hand; the prior CBA expired in December and the league just flat-out cancelled the Rule 5 draft. It may not actually matter if the Cubs expose someone like Murray in the draft; if there's no draft, he's not going anywhere, anyway. 

The labor questions are too big and unwieldy to govern a decision like this. Instead, it should come down to whether the team thinks that's the best use of their extra roster spot for a position player, and to whether they think being with the parent club is the best thing for Ayers's development.

Ultimately, I think the balance tips in favor of the Cubs' calling up Ayers, as long as he's the planned "next up" to fill Kelly's spot in 2027. He'd get invaluable time with the pitchers he'll be working with; provide the Cubs options off the bench; and get a chance to gel with the clubhouse. This likely offsets any concern about the Rule 5 draft and 40-man considerations. 

And if the Cubs end up calling up someone like James Triantos instead? It's not the end of the world, and would be fine. It does keep the roster picture uncluttered. It may give Ayers some reps during a lockout. And it's not like the Cubs' fates are going to be shifted that greatly by the 14th hitter on the roster, whoever it is.

With just a week to go before these decisions need to be made, we'll see which side the team actually sits on shortly. But if the team does give Ayers a chance in September, it will be a fun little peek into the future of the team at the catching position.

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[Victor Reichman]

Excellent article. Discussing both pro and con and then coming to a conclusion. Thanks.

[Tryptamine]

If he was tearing up AAA the way he was tearing up A+ and AA I'd be all for it, but he's hitting his first little snag, still a 101 wRC+,  and I'd rather him get a chance to work through it then pushing him to the majors. 

Edited 27 minutes ago by Tryptamine

[Funky-daddy]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If he was tearing up AAA the way he was tearing up A+ and AA I'd be all for it, but he's hitting his first little snag, still a 101 wRC+,  and I'd rather him get a chance to work through it then pushing him to the majors. 

Agreed. Seems he might need more time to adjust to the new stance too

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If he was tearing up AAA the way he was tearing up A+ and AA I'd be all for it, but he's hitting his first little snag, still a 101 wRC+,  and I'd rather him get a chance to work through it then pushing him to the majors. 

I wouldn't *super* worry about that wRC+. First, it's the International League and league numbers are stupid there. He's running a super respectable .270/.387/.370 line. The only thing holding the wRC+ is the power, but he's currently working on some mechanic changes that he's just been putting into motion. And his batting ball data is running around league averagish regardless. His swing decisions are really great 74th percentile contact rate, 90th percentile walk rate. And he's had a few hard hit balls recently that just didn't get out or just barely missed. 

TJ Nestico runs a "TJBat" number which is essentially a wRC+ type number for hitters, and he's sitting 60th percentile for Triple-A. His wOBA is 55th percentile, too. I think for a catcher, especially one who hasn't had a lot of time there, these things outweigh the 101 wRC+. Overall, I think the story is lot more positive than the wRC+ and I am a wRC+ fiend. Truthfully, I think he's looked really good. 

Just to prove it, since his mechanical adjustment: 
91 MPH EV, 107 Max, .424 xWOBA

Plus, I think the argument for him being up is that the development with the Cubs and their pitching staff (as well as using Traject, working with Cubs' hitting coaches etc) would outweigh a few more weeks in Iowa. We have a tendency to think development=PA's we can see but so often the real development happens behind closed doors. In that vein, if it's development we're worried about missing, I tend to chalk it up as "probably not a big deal" if it's just a few weeks.

[macarthur31]

You've convinced me to give Ayers the call.  You've also backdoored into a "Predict the 28 on the Expanded Roster" thread.  They'll have 24 games remaining, and I anticipate that the Couns has to balance the goals of 1)winning enough to get at least WC1 (or steal a bye) and 2)sorting out the outgetters and teeing them up to peak by playoff start.

 

At this point, I'm seeing:

Position Players (14)

1. PCA
2. Suzuki
3. Busch
4. Bregman
5. Happ
6. Nico
7. Ramirez
8. Kelly
9. Amaya
10. Conforto 
11. Dansby
12. Ty Taylor
13. Shaw?
14. Ayers?

Pushing:  Kevin Alcantara? Gabriel Arias?  James Triantos?

 

Starters/Pen (14)

1. Gausman
2. Holmes
3. Boyd
4. Imanaga
5. Peterson
6. Ben Brown
7. Aaron Civale
8. Colin Rea
9. Ryan Rolison
10. Ryan Zeferjahn
11. Trent Thornton
12. Jacob Webb
13. Danny Palencia
14. Caleb Theilbar

Pushing:  Shelby Miller? Hoby Milner?  Justin Steele?  Javy Assad?

@Jason Ross Also, just want to double click on this for your next pod (assuming you're recording before Sep 1) - who you got on the 28?

Edited 4 minutes ago by macarthur31
Forgot about Caleb!

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

You've convinced me to give Ayers the call.  You've also backdoored into a "Predict the 28 on the Expanded Roster" thread.  They'll have 24 games remaining, and I anticipate that the Couns has to balance the goals of 1)winning enough to get at least WC1 (or steal a bye) and 2)sorting out the outgetters and teeing them up to peak by playoff start.

 

At this point, I'm seeing:

Position Players (14)

1. PCA
2. Suzuki
3. Busch
4. Bregman
5. Happ
6. Nico
7. Ramirez
8. Kelly
9. Amaya
10. Conforto 
11. Dansby
12. Ty Taylor
13. Shaw?
14. Ayers?

Pushing:  Kevin Alcantara? Gabriel Arias?  James Triantos?

 

Starters/Pen (14)

1. Gausman
2. Holmes
3. Boyd
4. Imanaga
5. Peterson
6. Ben Brown
7. Aaron Civale
8. Colin Rea
9. Ryan Rolison
10. Ryan Zeferjahn
11. Trent Thornton
12. Jacob Webb
13. Danny Palencia
14. Caleb Theilbar

Pushing:  Shelby Miller? Hoby Milner?  Justin Steele?  Javy Assad?

 

I'm surprised I convinced myself on it. A few weeks ago I thought "no way". After how the deadline went, his mechanical cleanups and just how strong the arm has looked...I'm pretty convinced today that the team has an Amaya/Ayers combo planned for 2027. If that's the case, I just think it makes sense to get him here now, on-board him in September as a third catcher and get his feet on the ground. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm surprised I convinced myself on it. A few weeks ago I thought "no way". After how the deadline went, his mechanical cleanups and just how strong the arm has looked...I'm pretty convinced today that the team has an Amaya/Ayers combo planned for 2027. If that's the case, I just think it makes sense to get him here now, on-board him in September as a third catcher and get his feet on the ground. 

That works for me as well, as long as the plan is for him to be a 3rd catcher on the playoff roster. If not, I would leave him in Iowa and not have to mess with already ever changing 40 man roster. With the possibility of Milner, Brown, Steele and Miller all needing a roster spot I don’t see them adding him just for the regular season.