wRC+ with RISP

[mk49]

It's true that our pitchers suck.  But, I just compared the wRC+ with RISP with the last year, because we all know that they suck with RISP.  They were worse than I expected.  Aside from PCA and Kelly, they all got worse.  Seiya is a joke, and Bregman is worse than Dansby who is pretty bad.

wRC+ with RISP	2025	2026
Amaya	249	156
Seiya	168	7
Nico	149	81
Busch	146	128
Happ	122	107
Mo	117	116
Kelly	110	146
PCA	106	140
Swanson	74	57
Shaw	64	44
Tucker	135
Bregman		44
Conforto		118

Edited yesterday at 03:34 AM by mk49

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

If I was someone totally objective I would say this just means a lot of guys are due for positive regression to the mean.

but I'm not. Cobs

[mk49]

I do think at least a few guys are definitely due for positive regression.  Seiya, Nico and Bregman should get better.  Not sure about Dansby, though.

Edited yesterday at 02:18 AM by mk49

[Derwood]

Seiya is truly lost at the plate

[Gjfificifjdej]

Seiya even being that high is unbelievable. He has been horrifyingly awful. 

[Bertz]

[Soul]

Seiya should be able to do better just throwing the bat at the ball.

[Stratos]

Here's a good article to a key reason we  sucked in May.  TLDR: We annihilated fastballs in April, teams adjusted and started throwing certain guys a ton of breaking balls.  Seiya and Dansby were leading the MLB in braking balls seen, Amaya and Bregman weren't too far behind:

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-seeing-historic-amount-of-breaking-balls-may-2026

Also, Mo was last on the team in May in strikes thrown to him (30%).  He was also worst on the team in swings on pitches outside the zone.  Pitchers have adjusted to him.

Edited yesterday at 05:40 AM by Stratos

[mk49]

That explains Amaya.  He was the best hitter for the Cubs in March and early April.  He hasn't been as good lately, although still not as bad.  Seiya has always been bad with outside breaking balls, and sometimes, cutters.  He chases too much.

Edited yesterday at 03:18 AM by mk49

[We Got The Whole 9]

They need to at least tighten their zones against breakers if they can't do much damage to them. They get in bad counts chasing early too often. The adjustments made have really derailed the offenses approach. 

[Soul]

50 minutes ago, mk49 said:

That explains Amaya.  He was the best hitter for the Cubs in March and early April.  He hasn't been as good lately, although still not as bad.  Seiya has always been bad with outside breaking balls, and sometimes, cutters.  He chases too much.

I always thought Seiya had a good eye.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, Soul said:

I always thought Seiya had a good eye.

He normally does at least, he's 82nd percentile in chase rate, only 24.2%

[mk49]

25 minutes ago, Soul said:

I always thought Seiya had a good eye.

He does, except for outside.  He chases too many outside breaking balls, especially with 2 strikes.

Edited yesterday at 04:32 AM by mk49

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, mk49 said:

 

wRC+ with RISP	2025	2026
Amaya	249	156
Seiya	168	7

That’s a typo, right? Did you mean to to type 70? 

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s a typo, right? Did you mean to to type 70? 

7-56 with 1 HR 🥶

 

And I thought KB was bad for a while there... 

[chibears55]

12 hours ago, mk49 said:

It's true that our pitchers suck.  But, I just compared the wRC+ with RISP with the last year, because we all know that they suck with RISP.  They were worse than I expected.  Aside from PCA and Kelly, they all got worse.  Seiya is a joke, and Bregman is worse than Dansby who is pretty bad.

wRC+ with RISP	2025	2026
Amaya	249	156
Seiya	168	7
Nico	149	81
Busch	146	128
Happ	122	107
Mo	117	116
Kelly	110	146
PCA	106	140
Swanson	74	57
Shaw	64	44
Tucker	135
Bregman		44
Conforto		118

Good group of hitters on paper, but as a group, their inconsistencies is hurting them, and it really hurts them having 4 key hitters in that lineup laying an egg when the opportunities come to drive in runs.

Suzuki , Bregman,  Hoerner, and Swanson 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 02:56 PM by chibears55

[Rcal10]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Good group of hitters on paper, but as a group, theyre inconsistencies is hurting them, and it really hurts them having 4 key hitters in that lineup laying an egg when the opportunities come to drive in runs.

Suzuki , Bregman,  Hoerner, and Swanson 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree. But that is also what happens when a team plays bad for a stretch. The question is does it hold up all year? Or does the group of hitters the Cubs have get back to what is expected of them? If you believe, as a whole, the group is good, then you have to ride it out. 

[mk49]

4 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s a typo, right? Did you mean to to type 70? 

Unfortunately, it's not a typo.  Maybe, we could've won a couple more, if it was 70.

I was a bit surprised to find how good they were last year.  I guess that's one of the reasons why they won 92.

[squally1313]

Here are the core offensive players career wRCS compared to their career wRCs with RISP:

• Bregman: 132/140
• Swanson: 96/105
• Happ: 117/121
• Hoerner: 103/118
• Suzuki: 125/119
• PCA: 99/118
• Busch: 123/115

Now we could say that based on 2 months of high leverage at bats, the offense is somehow broken in only those scenarios and these struggles will just continue because Cobs. Or we could say that the struggles thus far in key situations has absolutely impacted our record to date, but should in no way be expected to continue at the level of futility it has because this is a group of good hitters and (take your pick) a. clutch isn't really a thing that exists or b. the group has collectively performed better in those situations over a sample size much more meaningful than 2 months. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

7-56 with 1 HR 🥶

 

And I thought KB was bad for a while there... 

he looks like he’s wearing a blindfold when swinging at sliders.