Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m not saying he’s a realistic option I’m saying he’s the only National that’d make any sense. What is the succession plan for Happ and Suzuki? Is Shaw taking outfield reps for 2027? Extend Suzuki? Hope Conrad mashes in the minors?

The Cubs are currently slated to have a prospect who has received some form of top-100 hype serve for the last four years as their 4th OF'er this year. The Cubs like view him as the first line. 

Secondly, the Cubs will still have plenty of money next offseason. They don't need to have a 1:1 internal plan for every position every offseason. They could also resign someone; Ian Happ loves Chicago and being a Cub. An extension shouldn't be ruled out there. And while it seems unlikely Jonathon Long ends up in LF, I don't think you can fully rule that out either. We'll see what they do there this upcoming year.

[Geographyhater8888]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs are currently slated to have a prospect who has received some form of top-100 hype serve as their 4th OF'er this year. The Cubs like view him as the first line. 

Secondly, the Cubs will still have plenty of money next offseason. They don't need to have a 1:1 internal plan for every position every offseason. They could also resign someone; Ian Happ loves Chicago and being a Cub. An extension shouldn't be ruled out there. And while it seems unlikely Jonathon Long ends up in LF, I don't think you can fully rule that out either. We'll see what they do there this upcoming year.

It’s a weak free agent class for outfielders. Suzuki is the best available in my opinion. If they do end up flipping Shaw then I’d think outfield help makes as much sense as pitching help. Is Alcantara even in the top 100 still?

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’s a weak free agent class for outfielders. Suzuki is the best available in my opinion. If they do end up flipping Shaw then I’d think outfield help makes as much sense as pitching help. Is Alcantara even in the top 100 still?

Keith Law just ranked him a top-50 prospect. It should be noted that Law is stubborn as hell and rarely changes his opinion, has been a high-man in Kevin for years but it doesn't erase his ranking, either. 

As stated previously, though, people are a little too down on Alcantara. I don't think he's a top-50 guy, but I also find these rankings to be less than useful. He's a good prospect, deserves to get a real shot to play in 2026 and likely will get that shot. 

Beyond that, the Cubs will still have to plan for the OF, but it's not a super hard position to find. They have plenty of options. 

[Geographyhater8888]

53 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Keith Law just ranked him a top-50 prospect. It should be noted that Law is stubborn as hell and rarely changes his opinion, has been a high-man in Kevin for years but it doesn't erase his ranking, either. 

As stated previously, though, people are a little too down on Alcantara. I don't think he's a top-50 guy, but I also find these rankings to be less than useful. He's a good prospect, deserves to get a real shot to play in 2026 and likely will get that shot. 

Beyond that, the Cubs will still have to plan for the OF, but it's not a super hard position to find. They have plenty of options. 

Really Bellestaros is my only question mark heading into the season simply because of his limited sample size. Hopefully in season try outs at DH won’t be a thing. Better unknown to have than third base.. I also don’t expect a 110 wRC+ from the catcher position either.

Edited January 26 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Really Bellestaros is my only question mark heading into the season simply because of his limited sample size. Hopefully in season try outs at DH won’t be a thing like our previous revolving door at third base. I’m more confident but that’s still an unknown. I also don’t expect a 110 wRC+ from the catcher position either.

Good news is that DH is easily replaced. And while we may not expect a 110 wRC+ at C, we can probably expect far better production at 3b, the bench, and many of our SPs have helium to beat projections. These things work both ways. 

On paper it's a team that's likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NL. It's a good place. 

[Geographyhater8888]

31 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Good news is that DH is easily replaced. And while we may not expect a 110 wRC+ at C, we can probably expect far better production at 3b, the bench, and many of our SPs have helium to beat projections. These things work both ways. 

On paper it's a team that's likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NL. It's a good place. 

It’s not a pressing concern It’s a question of how much contribute as a hitter. It’s a better unknown to have than sticking Morel over at third base to muff routine grounders. I think they’re selling Horton short too. His BABIP luck wasn’t sustainable but I think he clears a 3 fWAR without missing significant time with injuries. More than his 1.7. His stuff is too good not to.

Edited January 26 by Geographyhater8888

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

James Wood has far more control than Abrams or Gore. He's not on the table outside of the most outlandish offers.

I can't even fathom what the cost on Wood would be but I'm pretty sure the Cub don't have the impact prospects to pull it off. Sure they could throw 4 50-150 guys at them, but for a player of that caliber you're looking for at least one truly elite prospect followed by multiple other top 150 guys.

[Bertz]

My mental model is you fill one of the OF spots with a kid and one with your checkbook.

- Alcantara's the most straightforward and desirable option, hopefully he earns it

- Long is very likely to have the bat, the question is whether he'd be more like a -5 outfielder defensively or more like -15

- If the team otherwise addresses 2B, whether that's extending Hoerner or internally with a Rojas or a Ramirez, Shaw's got a decent chance at being a very good OFer

- It's unlikely but it wouldn't be insane for Kepley or Conrad to race through the minors.  You'd absolutely still want a veteran hedge in this scenario, but you might be able to get away with e.g. a $10M Ramon Laureano instead of a $25M Seiya Suzuki

And then the market's lacking a tio end talent like Tucker, but it's solid in pretty good outfielders.  Happ and Suzuki obviously, Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward, Trent Grisham, Dalton Varsho.  None of these guys (save mayybe Varsho) move the team forward, but they'd all hold the line.

[Derwood]

Cubs signing Dylan Carlson to a MiLB deal.

Could be a nice pickup if he gets healthy

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Cubs signing Dylan Carlson to a MiLB deal.

Could be a nice pickup if he gets healthy

Yeah I want Alcantara to win the 4th OF spot but Carlson and McCormick are great buy low options as a fallback. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’s not a pressing concern It’s a question of how much contribute as a hitter. It’s a better unknown to have than sticking Morel over at third base to muff routine grounders. I think they’re selling Horton short too. His BABIP luck wasn’t sustainable but I think he clears a 3 fWAR without missing significant time with injuries. More than his 1.7. His stuff is too good not to.

I believe he caught most grounders, just had no idea how to throw it near the 1b. 

[Bertz]

Thinking more about next year's planning, '27 payroll as of right now is somewhere in the $140M neighborhood.  So for the sake of nice round numbers, let's say the team is $100M under the luxury tax pending whatever changes with the CBA.  

Also as of right now the bullpen will need to be rebuilt again and the situations at 2B, C, RF, LF, DH and two SP slots are varying levels of unsettled.  Again for the sake of nice round numbers assume it costs $15M for a good quality first division starter at catcher and DH, and $20M for each of those other holes (I'm counting the bullpen collectively as one $20M hole).  That means the Cubs would need to spend $150M AAV in free agency to get the team back to the level of top to bottom strength where it is right now.  That's uhhh....probably not gonna happen.

So in order to feel like the team isn't going to take a big step back after this season you probably need three kids to stake claim to 2027 starting spots.  If you want to not just tread water but have fun in free agency next year, i.e. chase $30M plus guys instead of $20M minus guys, you need a fourth or god willing a fifth kid to step up.  

That's actually not as daunting as it sounds!  Shaw's basically already there, and Mo's got a pretty high floor and a good bit of runway to open the season.  There's another five guys on the Iowa/Chicago border in Alcantara, Long, Wiggins, Brown, and Wicks.  But IMO it does mean that from here out, where the roster decisions are at the margins. the team should generally swallow a little risk in exchange for giving the kids  more runway.  

[chibears55]

16 days for pitchers and catchers 🙂

[JunkyardWalrus]

25 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

16 days for pitchers and catchers 🙂

Best news I've read in a while

[Geographyhater8888]

The starting 9 is reminiscent of the 2008 lineup. Deep from 1-8 (No DH). No one terrifying but cumulatively effective with better gloves.

Jim Edmonds washed off his cardinals stink a bit after homering twice in the fourth inning vs the White Sox for me at least. 

Edited January 27 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

Cubs signed this guy to a minor league deal.  He's been in indy ball the last two years, and apparently has had a velo bump during that time 🤷‍♂️

Also was reading BN this morning and apparently Chas McCormick has minor league options.  So even if Alcantata beats him out for a spot, if the Cubs add him yo the 40 man they can hang onto him all year at Iowa.

[CubinNY]

I absolutely love the Dylan Carlson signing. Still only 27. If he's healthy and not completely washed out, he could be a great story and cheap asset moving forward. An outfield defense of PCA, Carlson, and Alcantara would be among the best defensive outfields in baseball. 

[Cuzi]

20 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I absolutely love the Dylan Carlson signing. Still only 27. If he's healthy and not completely washed out, he could be a great story and cheap asset moving forward. An outfield defense of PCA, Carlson, and Alcantara would be among the best defensive outfields in baseball. 

Dylan Carlson hasn't been worthy of a roster spot in 3 years. This guys is the emergency to the emergency and probably doesn't last beyond ST in any capacity.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Dylan Carlson hasn't been worthy of a roster spot in 3 years. This guys is the emergency to the emergency and probably doesn't last beyond ST in any capacity.

Thanks!

[Bertz]

Listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from late last week.  They seem to think another pitching move is coming.  Didn't really sound like they were reporting anything, Mooney just laid out the logic:

- Based on the media scrum at the convention it's clear Craig Counsell is pushing the front office to keep adding

- Jed and Carter are always paranoid about injuries

- They love acquiring pitching depth and they LOVE being opportunistic

- They are signaling that they have more money than recent offseasons and they're not maxed out on budget yet

- If the acquisition cost now makes sense vs. giving up prospects at the trade deadline it makes sense

I feel like it's hard to fit a guy onto the roster unless he's optionable or rehabbing, but you can never have too much depth I guess.

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from late last week.  They seem to think another pitching move is coming.  Didn't really sound like they were reporting anything, Mooney just laid out the logic:

- Based on the media scrum at the convention it's clear Craig Counsell is pushing the front office to keep adding

- Jed and Carter are always paranoid about injuries

- They love acquiring pitching depth and they LOVE being opportunistic

- They are signaling that they have more money than recent offseasons and they're not maxed out on budget yet

- If the acquisition cost now makes sense vs. giving up prospects at the trade deadline it makes sense

I feel like it's hard to fit a guy onto the roster unless he's optionable or rehabbing, but you can never have too much depth I guess.

It has felt for a bit that we're waiting for Gallen to fall into our laps.

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

It has felt for a bit that we're waiting for Gallen to fall into our laps.

Agreed.  I think the question is if they want/have to move someone out to make space for him or if they just want to enter ST with silly levels of depth.

[chibears55]

I'd love to get Kopech, and maybe they can work him back into being a starter again next season, if not, at the very least theyll have a solid, hard throwing late innings guy who can close games with Palencia. 

He'll be 30 this season 

Edited January 27 by chibears55

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

- Based on the media scrum at the convention it's clear Craig Counsell is pushing the front office to keep adding

 

I got the impression Counsell was pushing more for positional depth than pitching. 

[Post Count Padder]

Yankees DFAd Marco Luciano, who they got recently from the Giants. Former top prospect and still 24. If he has options remaining, would be a nice get.