Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I'd love to see Tucker's market fall into our laps.

 

Not going to happen. Pretty sure the Cubs have no interest in him. 

[Bertz]

Since going to the Marlins Weathers has added almost two full MPH, gotten substantially better results, and had numerous shoulder injuries.  I'd be shocked if the latter two aren't directly attributable to the former.

For the Yankees though they just need two good months as a bridge to Cole coming back, anything else is gravy.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not going to happen. Pretty sure the Cubs have no interest in him. 

I find it hard to believe they'd have no interest in a guy that at the time, they gave up a lot for in a trade and ended up producing extremely well for most of the season. Especially if teams are really only offering 3-4 years like the Mets.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I find it hard to believe they'd have no interest in a guy that at the time, they gave up a lot for in a trade and ended up producing extremely well for most of the season. Especially if teams are really only offering 3-4 years like the Mets.

Just my opinion, but I don’t think they liked his clubhouse presence. I don’t think he was the leader they expected him to be.  That may not have been the original plan. But I think they soured in his as the year went on. 

[Thusly Boned]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Just my opinion, but I don’t think they liked his clubhouse presence. I don’t think he was the leader they expected him to be.  That may not have been the original plan. But I think they soured in his as the year went on. 

Yeah, from what I've heard (mostly speculative noise in line with your impression) and my own intuition I think the front office just wasn't impressed by the Kyle Tucker experience, and I would guess there is no real motivation to bring him back at all.

And while part of me thinks that's crazy, part of me is okay with it. Not with not spending the money, but not spending the money on Tucker.

Edited January 14 by Thusly Boned

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Just my opinion, but I don’t think they liked his clubhouse presence. I don’t think he was the leader they expected him to be.  That may not have been the original plan. But I think they soured in his as the year went on. 

Why would they expect a chill quiet guy to be a leader?  I think they just wanted him to hit the baseball and never had any intention of resigning or extending him for what he'd obviously command.  And I said that since the day they got him.

Edited January 14 by Stratos

[Bull]

7 hours ago, chibears55 said:

At least this will leave Alcantara down to get a little more time getting everyday AB in Iowa and be ready if called up later in season if needed.

Dean likely a guy who will get most of his PT as a defensive replacement for Suzuki late in games and used as a PR or the ghost runner when needed.

Alcantara is out of options.

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I find it hard to believe they'd have no interest in a guy that at the time, they gave up a lot for in a trade and ended up producing extremely well for most of the season. Especially if teams are really only offering 3-4 years like the Mets.

What most likely happened is they had no interest in extending him for $300 million+ and it turns out he was appropriately valued by the front office. I always thought the $450 million projections were nonsense but if you told me 8 months ago he’d be receiving 3 year offers I would’ve been beyond pissed off he wasn’t a Cub in 2026.

 

Edited January 14 by Geographyhater8888

[CubUgly]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What most likely happened is they had no interest in extending him for $300 million+ and it turns out he was appropriately valued by the front office. I always thought the $450 million projections were nonsense but if you told me 8 months ago he’d be receiving 3 year offers I would’ve been super disappointed if he wasn’t a Cub in 2026.

It’s a pipe dream but I really hope the Wrigley wind didn’t deter him or really any premium free agent sluggers in the future.

I never had the idea even when the Cubs first signed him that they were gonna play in the 10-year contract pool, but as you allude to yes - the 3 year.....back a year ago I would have said maybe.

But the experience was a very odd one with Tucker.  He's personality is very quite and to some can come across as aloof.  The pinky fracture was a weird period where you could question how the team handles some things and also that Tucker himself got out of sorts with his swing so that even when it was better he was off. Then the "calf strain" stuff just never sat well with me and I had more of an issue with Tucker on that that the Cubs.  He was frankly a below average right fielder last year - I kept rationalizing for him on that but a full year - home and away he just was not very good. 

I don't get the idea that Tucker will age well, and I suspect that's how most teams are projecting him now, hence the 3-year stuff coming out.   I'm o.k. with the direction we went here, I wish Tucker well.

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Why would they expect a chill quiet guy to be a leader?  I think they just wanted him to hit the baseball and never had any intention of resigning or extending him for what he'd obviously command.  And I said that since the day they got him.

I think the idea they only traded for him for one year and never had any intent of signing him after the year is ridiculous. You may have thought it and said it the entire time, but that doesn’t make it true or any less ridiculous. I think them signing Bregman is proof that they did have the money where they could have kept Tucker. There is one thing being quiet and another being aloof. I also don’t think they liked how he responded to rehab. When he was traded for I do believe the FO hoped he would love Wrigley and the fans would love him. Maybe get a small discount and he retire a Cub. Obviously that didn’t happen. But, I think his actions off the field as a ballplayer caused them to change their mind on him. I just don’t think the Tucker experience went how the Cubs hoped it would. 
And, if you think about all those great hitters who came through Houston, he was the only one they didn’t even bother to try extending. They lost Correa, Bregman, Springer to free agency. Each they tried to keep. They kept Altuve and so far Alvarez. They traded Tucker.

[CubUgly]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think the idea they only traded for him for one year and never had any intent of signing him after the year is ridiculous. You may have thought it and said it the entire time, but that doesn’t make it true or any less ridiculous. I think them signing Bregman is proof that they did have the money where they could have kept Tucker. There is one thing being quiet and another being aloof. I also don’t think they liked how he responded to rehab. When he was traded for I do believe the FO hoped he would love Wrigley and the fans would love him. Maybe get a small discount and he retire a Cub. Obviously that didn’t happen. But, I think his actions off the field as a ballplayer caused them to change their mind on him. I just don’t think the Tucker experience went how the Cubs hoped it would. 
And, if you think about all those great hitters who came through Houston, he was the only one they didn’t even bother to try extending. They lost Correa, Bregman, Springer to free agency. Each they tried to keep. They kept Altuve and so far Alvarez. They traded Tucker.

Good points all I think.  I think any chance the "he would fall in love with Wrigley stuff" ended when he got booed for not running out the ground ball.   And honestly, I did not have that big a problem with him getting booed there.   He's a good hitter and underrated base stealer, but as I said above, I question how well he'll age and he seems to be regressing defensively - which is why teams are balking at long term deals I think. 

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Good points all I think.  I think any chance the "he would fall in love with Wrigley stuff" ended when he got booed for not running out the ground ball.   And honestly, I did not have that big a problem with him getting booed there.   He's a good hitter and underrated base stealer, but as I said above, I question how well he'll age and he seems to be regressing defensively - which is why teams are balking at long term deals I think. 

The wind knocking down his home runs had more to do with disliking Wrigley, whether true or rumored than a few boos. He’ll hate New York if he’s sensitive to booing. 

[CubUgly]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The wind knocking down his home runs had more to do with disliking Wrigley, whether true or rumored than a few boos. He’ll hate New York if he’s sensitive to booing. 

Perhaps, no way for us to really know.  Busch and PCA seemed to manage it a bit better.  How many HR's do you think the wind cost him last year?

[Geographyhater8888]

19 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Perhaps, no way for us to really know.  Busch and PCA seemed to manage it a bit better.  How many HR's do you think the wind cost him last year?

Tuckers OPS was 747 with 7 of his 22 homers hit at wrigley and a 923 away from Wrigley. 21 of Busch’s 34 were hit away from Wrigley and 7 of his 13 were against St. Louis. PCA was more balanced hitting 15/31 at wrigley but his OPS jumped from 698 away to 844 at Wrigley unlike the other 2 for some context.

We’ll never know but I’d bet any contention he has is related to his home away splits and perhaps the $ it costed him. 

Edited January 14 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Good points all I think.  I think any chance the "he would fall in love with Wrigley stuff" ended when he got booed for not running out the ground ball.   And honestly, I did not have that big a problem with him getting booed there.   He's a good hitter and underrated base stealer, but as I said above, I question how well he'll age and he seems to be regressing defensively - which is why teams are balking at long term deals I think. 

 

14 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The wind knocking down his home runs had more to do with disliking Wrigley, whether true or rumored than a few boos. He’ll hate New York if he’s sensitive to booing. 

Honestly, I have no idea what happened last year. I just don’t believe they NEVER intended on discussing a long term contract with him when they traded for him. It just turned into a bad marriage, for whatever reason reason. And the Cubs just decided he wasn’t the guy for them. 
What sense does that trade make if they knew it was for one year only? Jed didn’t have to save his job. He was never in danger of losing it. Cubs didn’t exactly go all in after the trade, as if they were laying it all on the line for one year. Why trade a decent 3rd baseman and a higher end prospect for one year of Tucker and not go all in? Contrary to what some want to believe, Jed and the FO are not idiots. I think it is far more likely that, for whatever reason, the FO changed their opinion on Tucker. And because of that they decided he wasn’t the guy going forward. 

[squally1313]

Tucker was pretty clearly playing through an injury for a good chunk of the year and put up the 20th best wOBA and 12th best xwOBA among players with at least 500 PAs and had one less walk than strikeout. Bregman's bat plays up in the field, 10 years is scary or whatever, etc etc.....but the dude is an elite hitter and his absence is going to a hurdle to overcome in terms of the concept of the 2026 Cubs being better than the 2025 Cubs. 

[Geographyhater8888]

26 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Tucker was pretty clearly playing through an injury for a good chunk of the year and put up the 20th best wOBA and 12th best xwOBA among players with at least 500 PAs and had one less walk than strikeout. Bregman's bat plays up in the field, 10 years is scary or whatever, etc etc.....but the dude is an elite hitter and his absence is going to a hurdle to overcome in terms of the concept of the 2026 Cubs being better than the 2025 Cubs. 

They’ll likely net at least 3.5 more wins from third base while swapping Ben Brown for hopefully close to a full year of Horton+the addition of Cabrera, as long as they can stay healthy I think makes it wash. But yes, there’s no replacement for Tucker when healthy.

Edited January 14 by Geographyhater8888

[BigbadB]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Tucker was pretty clearly playing through an injury for a good chunk of the year and put up the 20th best wOBA and 12th best xwOBA among players with at least 500 PAs and had one less walk than strikeout. Bregman's bat plays up in the field, 10 years is scary or whatever, etc etc.....but the dude is an elite hitter and his absence is going to a hurdle to overcome in terms of the concept of the 2026 Cubs being better than the 2025 Cubs. 

Bregman is a drop off from a healthy Tucker. However, Tucker wasn't healthy and the Cubs had Workman, Brujan, Nicky Lopez, Berti, Turner and Shaw at 3b last year. 

[Geographyhater8888]

3 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Bregman is a drop off from a healthy Tucker. However, Tucker wasn't healthy and the Cubs had Workman, Brujan, Nicky Lopez, Berti, Turner and Shaw at 3b last year. 

And the rotation is deeper. Swapping Brown out of the rotation for Horton is huge. I refuse to believe Brown was worth a 1.1 fWAR. He flat out sucked. The catcher position might see a dip in offensive production though. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Bregman is a drop off from a healthy Tucker. However, Tucker wasn't healthy and the Cubs had Workman, Brujan, Nicky Lopez, Berti, Turner and Shaw at 3b last year. 

An unhealthy Tucker put up 4.6 fWAR last year. Ballesteros, if you give him 500 PAs, is projected for 1.1. Unless you buy into the whole 'Suzuki hits better when he fields' thing, which I don't, he's not a good enough defender to accrue much value there. The bench will be better with Shaw, probably, though he's projected for a 105 wRC and Justin Turner was projected for a 103 wRC last year, so...who knows.

Horton is a big wild card. We all saw how good his results were last year. It's really tough to be a Good pitcher with that kind of strikeout rate. 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

An unhealthy Tucker put up 4.6 fWAR last year. Ballesteros, if you give him 500 PAs, is projected for 1.1. Unless you buy into the whole 'Suzuki hits better when he fields' thing, which I don't, he's not a good enough defender to accrue much value there. The bench will be better with Shaw, probably, though he's projected for a 105 wRC and Justin Turner was projected for a 103 wRC last year, so...who knows.

Horton is a big wild card. We all saw how good his results were last year. It's really tough to be a Good pitcher with that kind of strikeout rate. 

Regarding Horton, his K rate did get better as the season went on. He struck out 47 batters in his last 49 innings starting in August. He has sold swing and miss rates too. So I would expect that K rate to increase. 

Now, back Tucker. I don’t think the Cubs question his baseball skills. I think their issue is his make up, for whatever reason. 

Edited January 14 by Rcal10

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Regarding Horton, his K rate did get better as the season went on. He struck out 47 batters in his last 49 innings starting in August. He has sold swing and miss rates too. So I would expect that K rate to increase. 

Horton also swing and miss stuff too. He’s not exactly Javier Assad. We’re better off with him in the opening day rotation than Ben brown and his great strikeout rate.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Regarding Horton, his K rate did get better as the season went on. He struck out 47 batters in his last 49 innings starting in August. He has sold swing and miss rates too. So I would expect that K rate to increase. 

Certainly encouraging, especially if you ignore the .192 BABIP over that stretch. I watched his starts, and I'll get ahead of the advanced analysis that might be coming that's saying he's good/elite at producing bad contact (barrel rate is very good), by agreeing that his fastball is pretty special at getting the batted ball results he wants. Just pumping the brakes a little bit because if you're (not specifically you, the general you) going to lean into the projections, you should take the good ones with the bad.

[Derwood]

I always felt like Tucker's body language was kinda "meh" all the time. Even doing the "raise the roof" celebration after a hit felt insincere

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Certainly encouraging, especially if you ignore the .192 BABIP over that stretch. I watched his starts, and I'll get ahead of the advanced analysis that might be coming that's saying he's good/elite at producing bad contact (barrel rate is very good), by agreeing that his fastball is pretty special at getting the batted ball results he wants. Just pumping the brakes a little bit because if you're (not specifically you, the general you) going to lean into the projections, you should take the good ones with the bad.

I agree you should look at all the data. But because he does have solid swing and miss stuff and his k rate did increase as the year went on, I think he is being sold a little short. Besides that, before this year Logan Webb had a few low K rate years that were very good. And his k per 9 were 7.6 as opposed to Horton’s 7.4 last year. I agree Horton can’t sustain the success he had without getting a few more K’s, but guys can have good years at that level. And I think his level will improve.